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Spring "Freeze out"


BowMeHunter

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I was at peace with winter ending, but now that i see a snowstorm possible, Im jealous :lol:, though I will say no one deserves it more than Toronto, so hopefully they get hit.

I was looking over my data to do my winter review writeup (ive done one every year for my records since 2002), and I realized that there was actually 2 times we saw impressive snowfall rates. Jan 15th I saw 2" of snow in 2 hours from a lake squall, and of the 4.9" that fell Feb 10/11th, 3" of that fell in 2 hours here. There were also impressive squalls on Jan 29th, many bouts of lighter snows, and unfortunately many bouts of rain as well, our only real dry period coming Jan 31-Feb 9. So as horrendous as this winter was as a whole, I will say that the weather since early March has been way more boring/less active than winter was. The only active weather the past 6 weeks has been a brief thunderstorm pre-March-heatwave, the soaking icy cold rain of March 30th, a decent quick-hitting rain last week, and a few other scattered light rains and mood snowflakes in between.

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Weeklies disagree and so does the CPC.

Well the CPC outlook is for day 6 onwards... The cold blast shown on the Euro is for day 6, lasts a day or two and then warms right back up.. Add/average everything out and Its right in line with those outlooks overall.. Just because its warm/torchy overall doesn't mean you can't get cold blasts for a few days here and there..

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Another freeze warning for the entire LOT CWA. DVN put up some freeze warnings as well tonight. Dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s across the area.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

336 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...

.A DRY AND VERY COOL AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES

OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW

FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST

INDIANA AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF

CHICAGO. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CLIMB QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER

SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-

230445-

/O.NEW.KLOT.FZ.W.0006.120423T0800Z-120423T1300Z/

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-

LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...

WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...

FOWLER

336 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2012 /436 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012/

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CDT /4 AM EDT/ TO 8 AM CDT

/9 AM EDT/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CDT /4 AM EDT/ TO 8 AM CDT

/9 AM EDT/ MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED BY THE

FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

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Their reasoning is baffling, the mid-level clouds are staying away and weakening (for now), and I sure don't see any cirrus on infrared. Winds have gone calm, temperature of 38 °F in the airport and 48 °F on top of the met building, really strong stable boundary layer. Temperatures might be a few degrees higher in downtown due to fluxes from the lake and buildings. This could be a hard freeze in the countryside for sure, and there's alot of plants that need protecting by this point.

"MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE MID CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH

CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...SO WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS.

HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT THEM FROM

FALLING TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY

FROST...BUT NO FREEZE HEADLINES."

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Their reasoning is baffling, the mid-level clouds are staying away and weakening (for now), and I sure don't see any cirrus on infrared. Winds have gone calm, temperature of 38 °F in the airport and 48 °F on top of the met building, really strong stable boundary layer. Temperatures might be a few degrees higher in downtown due to fluxes from the lake and buildings. This could be a hard freeze in the countryside for sure, and there's alot of plants that need protecting by this point.

"MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE MID CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH

CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...SO WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS.

HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT THEM FROM

FALLING TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY

FROST...BUT NO FREEZE HEADLINES."

That's impressive for that amount of distance!

Down to 39° here. Basically calm winds. Well if the cirrus don't move in tonight, then there's potentially going to be some upset people in the morning! frosted plants.

I see a 30° at the airport here with a few speaks of 29° in the lower areas in the county. Edit: 2° drop in the last 20 minutes - 37°.

temp9.gif

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The AOS building is only 55 m tall so the lapse rate is about 100 °C/km, lol, but that doesn't mean anything since the extreme lapse rate is confined to a small depth near the ground.

One thing that's for sure with that sort of inversion is the free atmosphere has definitely decoupled from the boundary layer. Calm to variable wind even on top of the met building.

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Does next Saturday look really cold to anyone else? People better bundle up going to the Bulls first playoff game next weekend.

Yeah it does, especially north of i-80. Looks like a NE flow with cold rain!

gfs_namer_129_850_temp_ht_s.gif

... glad you mentioned this time period. The GFS is not only showing a cold rain, but some snowflakes on the front end of the storm system! Snow is showing up for central WI again. Little bit further south this time though.

Edit 2: Wow, the GFS is showing snow from NW IA straight across to NY! Saturday night could get interesting north of I-80. Model will change a bunch between now and then, but this could be another snow threat for some people.

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Yeah it does, especially north of i-80. Looks like a NE flow with cold rain!

gfs_namer_129_850_temp_ht_s.gif

... glad you mentioned this time period. The GFS is not only showing a cold rain, but some snowflakes on the front end of the storm system! Snow is showing up for central WI again. Little bit further south this time though.

Edit 2: Wow, the GFS is showing snow from NW IA straight across to NY! Saturday night could get interesting north of I-80. Model will change a bunch between now and then, but this could be another snow threat for some people.

Come awfully close Sunday.. Even some dynamic cooling in MI! :lol:

2M temps/precip.. What a model run haha! loco.gifloco.gif

gfs_namer_150_10m_wnd_precip.gif

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And in terms of freezes GFS dips Iowa down into the Teens Sunday !

Haha, it is close with the precip. type. Near 20° for NE IA, that would be record lows for sure. Given the 28th/29th of April.

@burbschaser: You're totally right about it looking like a cold Saturday!

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