Spring "Freeze out"

[SpartyOn]

If we get another perpetual late fall type winter again it will spark the biggest AGW debate ever! It will be anarchy in the boards too

[knitwx]

So will the fruit tree damage be apparent after the blossoms fall off? Is that usually how it works?

This is how I check for damage. First I look for brown rusty looking spots on the petals. If I find them ,I will remove the pistil and stamen from the center of several blossoms. If the area under them is brown they are dead. If the area is green they are not. With strawberries the center of the flower turns black if frozen. I hope this answers your question.

[daddylonglegs]

Some of my sweet cherries were killed...but I'm waiting until tomorrow to take a better look... I usually take a sharp knife and cut them in half. All the peaches I looked at so far were fine.

[csnavywx]

Saved all of my plants. My dad lost a couple, but all in all, it wasn't very bad this far south. Tomatoes in early June, here I come!

[Geos]

Found some frost damage today.

Little bit on the edges of the leaves of this flowering bush. -Can't remember the name off hand, but it blossoms with magenta colored flowers.

The picture below is my Mulberry Tree. Lots of leaves have turned brown and black partially. Wild birds go crazy over the berries - will probably be disappointed this summer!

Quite a few Forsythia bushes were hit in the area. Neighbors magnolia and apple tree was definitely affected.

[michsnowfreak]

meh.. No guarantees YET. But yeah i do like our odd's considering the players we *should* have on the field. The questionable one is the Nino ( could end up stronger or even weaker and thus neutral ) and thus why i won't jump yet. Everything right *now* is pointing towards atleast a weak nino. Have to wait and see on this one.

I dont put much faith in LR forecasts, but like everyone else, like to casually glance. What is the track record of the jamstec? A wetter version of 76-77 would be literally a dream come true. One thing I will say, it wouldnt at all surprise me if we go back to heavy snow once again next winter. It was mentioned several years back that it seems our area was entering a period similar to the mid-70s to mid-80s. Now, harsh winters were BY FAR the rule in that 10-year span, but 79-80 and 82-83 were mild, snow-free winters. So my hope is that we had several harsh winters in a row, now had our real mild, bare winter (honestly we got more snow than we should have with the pattern we were in lol)...then we go back to colder/snowier winters again next year

[michsnowfreak]

If we get another perpetual late fall type winter again it will spark the biggest AGW debate ever! It will be anarchy in the boards too

I never thought of this winter as "perpetual late Fall" stuff. This winter was a very mild winter but with the nina-like temp swings. The warmth dominated, but there were several transient cold blasts. When I think of "perpetual late Fall" I think more 1997-98, when there were only a few days above 50 and nights below 20.

That said I do agree another mild winter would indeed make the AGW talkers go CRAZY (even though I can name MANY cases of very mild back-to-back winters, almost all of them pre-1960). For instance, dont forget, Alaska saw record cold this winter, as did many on the other side of the pond. But thats never looked at. If much of the continental US has a mild winter next year, the AGW talk will be rampant, no matter how cold other regions area...if the US has a cold winter, the same folks who would feast on a mild US winter as AGW ammo will simply say "just because the US is cold doesnt mean anything about AGW". But I better digress, they like this stuff to stick to the climate change forum lol.

[trapperman]

meh.. No guarantees YET. But yeah i do like our odd's considering the players we *should* have on the field. The questionable one is the Nino ( could end up stronger or even weaker and thus neutral ) and thus why i won't jump yet. Everything right *now* is pointing towards atleast a weak nino. Have to wait and see on this one.

Well I like the way this is trending. Lock in a +epo from July on??? Except for the STUPID precip maps. 1976 ftw... or loss...

http://origin.cpc.nc...usT2me3Mon.html

[Jonger]

Entire Grape crop in SW Michigan WIPED OUT.

17% of Welch's grape juice comes from SW Michigan grapes.

John Jasper, a surveyor for Welch's Foods, tells TV station ABC57 that he went through hundreds of acres before even finding a live bud. He estimates more than 10,000 acres were destroyed Thursday, mostly in Berrien, Cass and Van Buren counties.

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120414/METRO/204140379#ixzz1s4cK1cvP

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120414/METRO/204140379

[Geos]

Was just reading through some freeze damage articles...

1/2 of Iowa's grape crop wiped out. Their grapes are used for wine mostly. http://blogs.desmoin...e-crop-damaged/

Some apple tree freeze loses in central Ohio. http://www2.nbc4i.co...mage-ar-980407/

[NW Storm]

In the South Bend area usually it seems less likely after the 21st of April for another one of these severe freezes like we had last week but anything can happen. What do you think the chances are of this happening again this coming week around Tuesday or especially it looks like a drop coming Saturday April 21st?

Here is the link to ABC57's (WBND South Bend) Grape crop story that Jonger1150 mentioned: http://www.abc57.com...-147373675.html

[Geos]

From low 70s today to a predicted low of 30° here on Tuesday morning. The roller coaster ride continues!

There is not going to be much Great Lakes fruit this summer. Feel bad for the farmers.

[Nic]

Was just reading through some freeze damage articles...

1/2 of Iowa's grape crop wiped out. Their grapes are used for wine mostly. http://blogs.desmoin...e-crop-damaged/

Some apple tree freeze loses in central Ohio. http://www2.nbc4i.co...mage-ar-980407/

They only need 50% survival rate of flowers to have a full crop of apples. central Ohio will probably make it through even if we get into the upper 20s again, We usually only have another week or two left for the really bad freezes at this point in the year. Average last frost is late April here, but occurs into May every so often. May frosts are usually not enough to cause serious damage is seems this far south unless you have warm season vegetables planted which people shouldn't.

[Geos]

They only need 50% survival rate of flowers to have a full crop. central Ohio will probably make it through even if we get into the upper 20s again, We usually only have another week or two left for the really bad freezes at this point in the year. Average last frost is late April here, but occurs into May every so often. May frosts are usually not enough to cause serious damage is seems this far south unless you have warm season vegetables planted which people shouldn't.

Really! That's surprising.

The 90%+ kill rate of the grape buds are not expected to recover further northwest of you.

[Nic]

Really! That's surprising.

The 90%+ kill rate of the grape buds are not expected to recover further northwest of you.

I meant apples,plums, peaches. I don't know much about the grapes. Except for this chart I found that shows it has to get between 26-28 to have a lot of damage, I assume they can handle a similar flower loss and still have a full crop, especially if it is a dry year which it could be. Grapes like dry weather. Areas further NW that have 90% loss will not recover, but it could do better further south and make up for it.

http://www.ristcanyo..._tolerance.html

Surprising that one degree can be the difference between 10 and 90% damage.

[NW Storm]

Had a feeling this was going to happen. Looks not as bad as last time. ( ? )

Going to have to really watch this coming weekend though.

[SpartyOn]

LOT's AFD this AM acknowledges model production of sn with passing of low on Thurs/Fri, mentioning solutions that bring it into Nrn IL. No mention in the grids as consistency and confidence low.

I would be floored if anyone south of the 45th even sees a flake from this. Looks like a chilly rainy raw day for the major lake cities.

[Geos]

If somehow this end of the week system goes the southern route and does bring snow to the area...and we get a cold night. That could mean more trouble with the plants, especially trees. I have seen accumulating snow right to the end of April before.

[Hoosier]

I would be floored if anyone south of the 45th even sees a flake from this. Looks like a chilly rainy raw day for the major lake cities.

Why? It may not happen every year but we're talking April 20 not May 20.

[Tropical]

If somehow this end of the week system goes the southern route and does bring snow to the area...and we get a cold night. That could mean more trouble with the plants, especially trees. I have seen accumulating snow right to the end of April before.

May 10, 1990. Look that one up.

[Geos]

May 10, 1990. Look that one up.

I was a little young to remember that exact event, but that's pretty late for a snow. UGN reported snow and 34° that morning. High of 41° that day!

[Tropical]

I was a little young to remember that exact event, but that's pretty late for a snow. UGN reported snow and 34° that morning. High of 41° that day!

I had about 8 inches near west bend, wi that day.

Sent from my iPad

[wisconsinwx]

I would be floored if anyone south of the 45th even sees a flake from this. Looks like a chilly rainy raw day for the major lake cities.

I agree, I do think this could be a NE Wisconsin snowstorm (Door County, Marinette) into Northern Lower Michigan as recent Euro runs have been showing.

[SpartyOn]

Why? It may not happen every year but we're talking April 20 not May 20.

Even this far out it looks like garbage potential. The asociated cold air looks meh. That's why some woul be shocked if this happens. April 18th last year we had a 2 inch plastering.

EDIT: last year I had about 1.7 in the yard

[Hoosier]

Even this far out it looks like garbage potential. The asociated cold air looks meh. That's why some woul be shocked if this happens. April 18th last year we had a 2 inch plastering.

I have not looked at spring snowstorm setups in detail but I wonder if a nice deep/negatively tilted trough would be preferred. There's nothing close to that in this case. Still looks like it could get cold enough for snow but the question is where. 12z Euro continues to be farther north.

[Toronto4]

Today's 12z Euro looks very interesting early next week, especially for northern Ohio, western NY and southern Ontario. Low pressure tracks from the Carolinas NNW into central PA Sunday morning into southern ON Monday am. Don't have access to the precip/snow maps yet, but 850 mb temps are below zero throughout the event. The 12z GFS has a similar solution, but a tad warmer, though it gives some frozen precip early on Sunday. And it gives the eastern Great Lakes region a ton of QPF (3-4"). Badly needed.

EDIT:

Got the dates/track mixed up. It's the Carolinas Sunday morning, central PA Monday AM and southern Ontario next Tuesday. And it still hangs around next Wednesday and Thursday.

[toronto blizzard]

Today's 12z Euro looks very interesting early next week, especially for northern Ohio, western NY and southern Ontario. Low pressure tracks from the Carolinas NNW into central PA Sunday morning into southern ON Monday am. Don't have access to the precip/snow maps yet, but 850 mb temps are below zero throughout the event. The 12z GFS has a similar solution, but a tad warmer, though it gives some frozen precip early on Sunday. And it gives the eastern Great Lakes region a ton of QPF (3-4"). Badly needed.

EDIT:

Got the dates/track mixed up. It's the Carolinas Sunday morning, central PA Monday AM and southern Ontario next Tuesday. And it still hangs around next Wednesday and Thursday.

You can't be thinking about snow can you?

[Toronto4]

You can't be thinking about snow can you?

That setup from the Euro sure looks like snow. Even the 12z GGEM shows snow early Saturday morning from this Friday's system (seperate from the potential storm early next week).

Ten years ago today, Toronto was in a midst of a heat spell (temps in the low-mid 80s). A few days later (on the 22nd), an inch of snow fell. In 1976, 4-6" fell on April 25/26th after a period of very warm temps five days earlier.

[SpartyOn]

That setup from the Euro sure looks like snow. Even the 12z GGEM shows snow early Saturday morning from this Friday's system (seperate from the potential storm early next week).

Ten years ago today, Toronto was in a midst of a heat spell (temps in the low-mid 80s). A few days later (on the 22nd), an inch of snow fell. In 1976, 4-6" fell on April 25/26th after a period of very warm temps five days earlier.

It would be fitting if YYZ gets nailed in the spring following a winter(s) where they have been low balled and snowless. Bad luck for Canucks as of late

With that said I wouldnt get ahead of your self. The ECMWF isn't spring perfect.

[Nic]

If somehow this end of the week system goes the southern route and does bring snow to the area...and we get a cold night. That could mean more trouble with the plants, especially trees. I have seen accumulating snow right to the end of April before.

I had a dusting of snow on the morning of May 1st 2-3 years ago, the low temperature was 32.3-32.5. The high was in the 50s that day. It must have been very isolated to my area. it was on the back edge of some precip that lagged behind a cold front. I did not hear anyone talk about it on the news, I should have took a picture.