A-L-E-K Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Ill be fine here in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The ultimate the sky is falling thread. The GFS also showed an alien attack. But the ENS showed a asteroid hitting. So we can toss the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The ultimate the sky is falling thread. The GFS also showed an alien attack. But the ENS showed a asteroid hitting. So we can toss the 12z Lol, you know it's a boring year when the biggest weather catastrophe is a freeze in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 If you're a fruit tree farmer, then this is a very serious threat. Maybe not sky is falling doom, but bad nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 When you speed up this 300 hPa GFS loop you can see a block initially centered over Great Britain propagates west slowly but surely, and is centered more towards Greenland by day 7. Probably the result of a planetary scale Rossby wave moving west. When the jet stream hits the block it amplifies into troughs (longwave Rossby waves) that dive into eastern North America, which eventually wavebreak over the Atlantic (forming cutoff lows). With the current setup the northeast is more favored for cold air outbreaks and we're just on the backside, so things will have to change on a planetary scale before we really get freezing weather. Things are becoming more favorable for cold air outbreaks as long as the westward propagation continues, but who knows. http://tempest.aos.w...c300_flash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Some interesting numbers from FWA: 1910 - 10 70+ degree days in March - 18 days thereafter hit 32 - 4 of those days hit 28 - lowest temp 14 1907 - 9 70+ degree days in March - 20 days thereafter hit 32 - 10 of those days hit 28 - lowest temp 20 2007 - 7 70+ degree days in March - 12 days thereafter hit 32 - 7 of those days hit 28 - lowest temp - 20 1945 - 6 70+ degree days in March - 9 days thereafter hit 32 - 1 of those days hit 28 - lowest temp 28 From the looks of this data, a hard freeze after a warm March is inevitable for the Great Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 18z have 70's before the big Veg-Dev. Has mke getting down to 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 18z have 70's before the big Veg-Dev. Has mke getting down to 21. Good thing I was smart and left all my banana plants in pots for now. 21 won't faze my windmill palms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 18z gfs drops polar vort down into great lakes. That is ridiculous and is 240 hrs + out. Wait until it is 100 hrs out before you begin to get specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I'm thinking single digit lows are possible away from the lake. If this doesnt change, we may have a summer without leaves on a lot of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 18z gfs drops polar vort down into great lakes. That is ridiculous and is 240 hrs + out. Wait until it is 100 hrs out before you begin to get specific. I don't recall bowme suggesting that the PV would drop in to the GL? While i think we are gonna go in the other direction eventually ( Below normal temps ) it is very possible the models could be trying to push it in too quick? Right now i would say they are just hinting at it. Now if they hang on to this and get it inside of say 120hrs then yeah the chances go up. Then there is even the chance it slips in quicker too which is always possible with the AO/NAO etc going the other direction. As turtle pointed out the better odd's will be first in the ne and even eastern/lower lakes for the reasons he mentioned. Regardless of all that frosts and freezing temps are looking like a good bet especially away from the warmer lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Lows tomorrow night. - 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I'm thinking single digit lows are possible away from the lake. If this doesnt change, we may have a summer without leaves on a lot of trees. What? I don't think it is possible to get that cold this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 What? I don't think it is possible to get that cold this time of the year. It has been colder up this way in April. So yeah it is possible. Coldest ever April temp at Lansing for instance is -6. Latest 0 degree reading is April 18th i do believe. Down that way it could be different? I have not looked that closely at climo records there so not sure. Not saying we will get that cold. Just saying it has been even colder before and thus it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 What? I don't think it is possible to get that cold this time of the year. Don't worry it won't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Check NOWData... April 7 coldest temp here is 13F April 8 its 11F... So this wouldn't even be close to record breaking, but because we are a month ahead, even a moderately cold air mass is going to do a lot of plant damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves here (for the 240+ stuff). Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the models were showing a blossom-roasting freeze after that initial warm-up? The ensembles are all over the place, and the EC isn't really biting. Also, even if the GFS were to come pretty close, the ridiculous expanse of snow cover-free area would serve to moderate that airmass significantly this time of year. My WAG is that we'll see a glancing blow, but not anywhere near a 2007-esque plunge. The trend this year has been transient and/or glancing blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Milwaukee has chilly April lows down to 12°: 3rd (1886), 7th (1982), 16th (1875) Even a brief cold shot would do its dirty work on the plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves here (for the 240+ stuff). Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the models were showing a blossom-roasting freeze after that initial warm-up? The ensembles are all over the place, and the EC isn't really biting. Also, even if the GFS were to come pretty close, the ridiculous expanse of snow cover-free area would serve to moderate that airmass significantly this time of year. My WAG is that we'll see a glancing blow, but not anywhere near a 2007-esque plunge. The trend this year has been transient and/or glancing blows. Again i don't think ( unless i missed something? ) anyone is saying the GFS will be correct with it's deep freeze it is showing way out in the extended? Secondly. I think too many are getting caught up in the trend stuff. Like everything in weather trends change and don't last forever. How long have we been in this pattern and usually how long do we stay in the same pattern? Now ask that when enso is changing from Nina to Nino? Again i am not saying the GFS will be correct. What i am saying is the above normal regime/everything ending up warmer will come to a end. More of a question when? Thus look to stuff ( EPO/AO/NAO/MJO ETC ) that typically force such changes. The models may very well be pushing the idea too quickly while others are too slow which IS common to see when patterns start to break down. So again i am not saying the GFS is correct or will be totally wrong either. Looking at the stuff that usually forces a pattern change i would go as far to say that we will see a pattern change and perhaps a huge one by some standards ( consider what we just had and thus even near normal would be big ) as far as it goes. Reasons are ENSO, Tropical forcing aka MJO for starters. Just a matter of when. The sudden change in the overal AO/NAO state says it could be sooner then models even suggest. Nina to Nino climo says a little bit later say Mid April. A few years it did not happen till may but all Nina to Nino analogs says it happens by May with the lone exception of the 76 analog but even that had some decent chill in April and May. As for what happened this winter see the QBO/ENSO/Solar stuff which even i sorta missed as i did not put much effort into it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves here (for the 240+ stuff). Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the models were showing a blossom-roasting freeze after that initial warm-up? The ensembles are all over the place, and the EC isn't really biting. Also, even if the GFS were to come pretty close, the ridiculous expanse of snow cover-free area would serve to moderate that airmass significantly this time of year. My WAG is that we'll see a glancing blow, but not anywhere near a 2007-esque plunge. The trend this year has been transient and/or glancing blows. I would agree with this, there were several times this winter when the models showed crazy cold only to have it vanish as we got closer or taper it down significantly. I do think if anyone gets cold in the region it would be Eastern Lakes, and probably not significantly cold maybe seasonally cold but even at that it will probably be transient like it has been all winter. Honestly though any model out beyond 192hr is really just not too useful to base an idea upon. It could show it snowing 5' of snow or show us in the 90s neither would be taken for a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I would agree with this, there were several times this winter when the models showed crazy cold only to have it vanish as we got closer or taper it down significantly. I do think if anyone gets cold in the region it would be Eastern Lakes, and probably not significantly cold maybe seasonally cold but even at that it will probably be transient like it has been all winter. Honestly though any model out beyond 192hr is really just not too useful to base an idea upon. It could show it snowing 5' of snow or show us in the 90s neither would be taken for a grain of salt. How does the 5 day 12Z Euro work for ya? <0 C 850 temps Thursday, Friday and Saturday for your neck of the woods... Also with the pattern coming up according to the models the snowpack up in Canada will rebuild as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Considering the average lows across the region at this time of year/next couple weeks, even a -5 or -10 from average airmass could cause a lot of problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 How does the 5 day 12Z Euro work for ya? <0 C 850 temps Thursday, Friday and Saturday for your neck of the woods... Near to slightly below normal, not anywhere near the cold the GFS shows around 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Near to slightly below normal, not anywhere near the cold the GFS shows around 240. At least the snowpack in Canada looks to rebound a bit in the near term.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 At least the snowpack in Canada looks to rebound a bit in the near term.. Some, even that isn't certain nor significant within 250 miles of the US Border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 17 of 20 00z GFS ensemble members have MSN hitting freezing or below tomorrow night. The operational run is warmer than all the ensembles which is odd. http://www.nws.noaa....ens.pl?sta=KMSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Lake Michigan and urban living FTW, a couple a nights in the upper 30s = not a big deal. Bummer for northern lower MI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Lake Michigan and urban living FTW, a couple a nights in the upper 30s = not a big deal. Bummer for northern lower MI though. Cherry/apples going to be expensive this year Northern Lower just can't cut a break lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Freeze watch IMBY for Monday night and Tues. morning, then t storms Tuesday night. Gotta love the changes of spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Seems to me the NOA is heading into very (-) teritorory near months end. Infact it looks to be the lowest for the entire winter. I hope this is not trend for near normal temps. If so the ecologicial balance will be a mess this summer. Even if the blossoms don't get dammaged by the frost in the upcomming weeks the lack of bees will prevent any cross pollination. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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