michsnowfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 UHI FTW. It looks like I wont dip below freezing at all next week. It gets close at 33 but no cigar at this point. I think it will be more about skycover than UHI. If it stays breezy and cloudy, it might sit at 33-34 all night with some snow showers possible...if it gets clear it will be below freezing. The 850s in this airmass are colder than any of the time during our several light freezes the last few weeks, but the weather conditions may be unsettled as oppossed to what they were on good radiational cooling nights. MOS is never a good indicator for temps in any warm or cold spell due to its climo influence. I see often times in these situations, especially in MI, is that lows may overperform and highs underperform. For instance, I can see something where, even after disregarding MOS, DTX will forecast a low of 30 with a high of 48 with scattered rain and snow showers under mostly cloudy skies...the reality is something like a low of 34 and a high of 43 with thick lake stratus engulfing the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 It must not have been bad down here so far there are butterfly's, bees, and fly's around even after last night. Only the wimpiest plants got light damage. Hopefully next week it stays cloudy enough to prevent a major freeze at night. Hopefully we make it through without a major trough plunging freezing temperatures into the deep south like 2007. In 2007 the ground froze a little one of the nights. Talk about close... Yep. I was out working a house fire this evening and we saw some mosquitoes, even though it dropped to 31 for about 3 hours here early this morning. I was out in the country just after daylight and many of the tree and plant leaves were not too happy, but have seemed to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I think it will be more about skycover than UHI. If it stays breezy and cloudy, it might sit at 33-34 all night with some snow showers possible...if it gets clear it will be below freezing. The 850s in this airmass are colder than any of the time during our several light freezes the last few weeks, but the weather conditions may be unsettled as oppossed to what they were on good radiational cooling nights. MOS is never a good indicator for temps in any warm or cold spell due to its climo influence. I see often times in these situations, especially in MI, is that lows may overperform and highs underperform. For instance, I can see something where, even after disregarding MOS, DTX will forecast a low of 30 with a high of 48 with scattered rain and snow showers under mostly cloudy skies...the reality is something like a low of 34 and a high of 43 with thick lake stratus engulfing the sky. That's an advantage Michigan has in these situations. The lake acts as a buffer. Back here to the west, were wide open to the full force of cold attacks. It will be interesting to see what happens Monday night/Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 DTX has a chance of snow showers in my forecast Monday and Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 DTX has a chance of snow showers in my forecast Monday and Tuesday night. Soo Jealous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Soo Jealous! Lapse rates Monday and Tuesday could cause flurries across Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Lookin' chilly Monday night! Core of the cold punch is aimed right into southern & western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 We are the victim of a botched forecast this morning. It was only supposed to dip into the upper 30s with no frost mention, but I woke up to low 30s, ice in the bird bath, and a solid frost. I'm kinda po'd because I didn't cover any plants. I hope there is no damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Dropped to 35F here... Looks like at least 3 nights below freezing... 28F is the magic number..if I can stay at or above that, I could come out OK... I'll be covering what I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 blah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 We may have 3 shots at a freeze...Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning. Tuesday morning has the coldest air aloft but may be the least favorable for good radiational cooling. Wednesday morning is a bit warmer aloft but may have somewhat better radiating potential...same with Thursday. I doubt all 3 end up as freezes...if I had to pick the most likely day I'd say Wednesday by a smidge over Thursday but it's almost equal in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Tuesday morning looks to be a test for a lot of plants, especially west of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Tuesday morning looks to be a test for a lot of plants, especially west of Lake Michigan. Yeah looks even colder on Wed morning. Probably several 25-27 degree readings over a wide area if the NAM is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Man is it windy here...thought my greenhouse was going to blow away. 2 nights of 28F says the GFS... Lets hope that is the extent of it...but I wouldn't be shocked if we touch 26F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 GFS showing more cold down the road...this may not be the end of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Ahhhh...*(%*^ ... NWS just dropped our lows...27F Tues/26F wEDS gAME OVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Yeah this doesn't look too mild... Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 This should just about do in the apple crop around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Forecast lows of 29 °F for Madison, only ~5 °F below average to put things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Turtle- That's just it too..its not anything ground breaking...records are in the teens... its just because of that stupid March heat wave, now everything is going to get fried. Good call Bow Me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 My lows are still forecast for the lower 30s. I'm expecting it could be lowered into the upper 20s. Edit: Freeze Watches starting to go back up in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Ohio seems cold but it is relatively mild compared to what the upper Midwest has to deal with it can freeze into June up there. So if you have a warm spring that is bad. I only have until the 28th a April on average. Although I would prefer to live in Tennessee just because they get one more month of spring and one more month of fall then Ohio. I can imagine living in Wisconsin where you get July then it gets cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Pretty widespread event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Sub -10°C 850 mb's push SE ward on Tuesday AM. 0z NAM The cold really "knifes" its way down. Looks like all of WI will be sub 30° that morning. DLL: I bet some of those valleys in SW WI will experience mid 20s with no problem. Places like Sparta & Lone Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 MET has 29 here Tuesday morning. Decent CAA but probably too cold given that Monday should be in the 60's and the gradient flow looks to stay up at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 ...32F this morning and NWS did have 36F last nite... Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Forecast has 30° for tonight (29° on NAM), but 27° for the next night. 40° for the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 NAM is a hair colder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The NAM has been real good with temperatures lately. Except for Saturday morning when it was 5 degrees below guidance. Hopefully it won't be that far off tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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