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Spring "Freeze out"


BowMeHunter

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Given that the progged airmass next week is colder at 850 mb, wouldn't it basically cancel out and mean that it will probably be at least as cold as what we're currently seeing?

Yep. Another thing to point out is the ensembles ( GFS and euro ) have been trending colder each run for a few days now. Thus the trend is your friend.

Should also mention the euro weeklies now have most of the region at or below normal straight through into early May. Not to say we can't get a day or two of above normal temps.

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4km NAM shows 29 here by morning. Looks like the winds will diminish some overnight, so maybe we will get below freezing. Pretty much all of Wisconsin outside of the immediate lake shore goes below freezing as well.

temp11.gif

Based on current obs, that seems to be overdoing the amount of lake impact farther away from shore.

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Given that the progged airmass next week is colder at 850 mb, wouldn't it basically cancel out and mean that it will probably be at least as cold as what we're currently seeing?

Sure. There will probably be some solid frosts/ freezes north of the I-70 corridor and over through Nrn MO. I just don't see a 2007-esque situation (thank goodness). There's a few things working against this one, not the least of which is a general lack of snow-cover and a vicious sun angle that can capitalize on it.

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Based on current obs, that seems to be overdoing the amount of lake impact farther away from shore.

It is overdoing it. 33° here now. I'm 4.5 miles from the lake. Walked outside - grass is starting to frost up.

1am: Winds kicked up a little, rose the temperature to 36°. Winds forecast to go calm as the night goes on, low adjusted to 29° for my location.

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It'll go something like this for tomorrow morning's low temp: LAF 36, KTIM 34. ;)

Close.

35 at LAF and at my place. Just a few hints of light frost on the roof/car tops this morning.

32 or lower min temps in Indiana as of 8:00AM this morning.

VPZ: 30

GSH: 30

GUS: 30

SBN: 31

FWA: 32

MIE: 32

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