Indystorm Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 52/35 at PIA at 10a.m. Central time. We got a ways to go. But t storms are initiating west of KC and more importantly, dews are advecting northward in the 55-60 range in western MO at this hour.Stage is being set. Current low level helicity values are through the roof in areas of possible concern for this evening. Warm front and cold fronts may be in play as Justin emphasized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Only several hours til initiation and things don't seem much clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Still hoping for a brief window of opportunity late this afternoon/early this eve. Many of the models blow up some scattered convection right along the Mississippi around 00z. The RUC forecast of 2000j/kg cape is nice to look at, but unrealistic given the amount of mixing that will take place this afternoon. Should still be a narrow corridor of 1000-1300j/kg cape in an area where hodos are still pretty respectable. Just gonna sit at home and wait and see how it evolves, and then head out when things become more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 RUC continues to pop 'vection around the 23-00z time frame near the Mississippi. It's overdoing cape, so that may be a bit optimistic, but nevertheless.... Actually pretty impressive forecast sounding/hodo just east of the QC, or just east of the developing precip at 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Anybody noticed the "Trends/Forecast" section that has been added to the SPC mesoanalysis pages? Now you can see the last 4 hours of observed data, plus the next 6 hours of forecast data using the RUC, just by scrolling over the hours. Very cool new feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Anybody noticed the "Trends/Forecast" section that has been added to the SPC mesoanalysis pages? Now you can see the last 4 hours of observed data, plus the next 6 hours of forecast data using the RUC, just by scrolling over the hours. Very cool new feature. Yeah very nice feature to be sure. I really like the side by side zero hour comparison of observed values versus what the RUC is initializing. With that being said the extrapolation of the RUC shows pockets of sig tor values of 2 in western Illinois early this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Anybody noticed the "Trends/Forecast" section that has been added to the SPC mesoanalysis pages? Now you can see the last 4 hours of observed data, plus the next 6 hours of forecast data using the RUC, just by scrolling over the hours. Very cool new feature. I just discovered and played around with it this morning. Very helpful new feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Anybody noticed the "Trends/Forecast" section that has been added to the SPC mesoanalysis pages? Now you can see the last 4 hours of observed data, plus the next 6 hours of forecast data using the RUC, just by scrolling over the hours. Very cool new feature. I noticed this as well today, I certainly like the feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 What is the target time for initialization? Looking like a whole bunch of nada right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 What is the target time for initialization? Looking like a whole bunch of nada right now. Probably 23z or so at the earliest, possibly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Probably 23z or so at the earliest, possibly after. Agreed. And I would target the area just south of the Quad Cities for initiation. Burlington currently is 77/55. Keokuk is 75/59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Agreed. And I would target the area just south of the Quad Cities for initiation. Burlington currently is 77/55. Keokuk is 75/59. Probably gonna have to narrow those T/Td spreads to have a shot at a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Yeah, not really looking for tors today given lack of deep low level moisture. SPC meso discussion out for Quad Cities area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 272058Z - 272300Z MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WITHIN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN WI TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F...OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO STEADILY INCREASE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST AS WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA. HOWEVER...A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER SD/SOUTHWEST MN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INHIBITION OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO ERODE WITHIN THE MODESTLY MOIST NEAR-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING A NUMBER OF 15Z SREF MEMBERS IMPLY THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE INTO THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN IA/FAR NORTHWEST IL AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST WI AT MID-AFTERNOON. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /45-50 KT OR GREATER/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Dewpoints are in the mid-40s up in this area. I wouldn't expect much in the way of severe weather up this way. If something is going to pop I would think it would be pretty soon, were going to loose the day time heating. Looks like something trying to get going near Princeton, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Not expecting much, but we are trying to get t storm initiation on a line from Ottawa to Macomb IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Would have been nice 3hrs ago. Glad it's only March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0843 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN IL...EXTREME NERN/N-CENTRAL KS...EXTREME NWRN INDIANA...WRN/NRN MO...EXTREME SERN IA...EXTREME SRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 280143Z - 280345Z GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREFRONTAL BAND FROM N-CENTRAL IL TO NERN MO...WITH POTENTIAL MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN LM REGION AND POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING TOWARD KS/MO BORDER REGION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. OCNL SVR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. 01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM E-CENTRAL WI SWWD ACROSS DBQ/OTM/STJ AREAS. WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN WI SSEWD ACROSS CHI AREA TO NEAR SDF...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR WITH MID-UPPER 40S F DEW POINTS EXTENDED W OF WARM FRONT OVER ERN IL. GIVEN SWLY FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WAS WEAK...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. HOWEVER...SFC CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT OVER W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL IL. THOUGH AT OBLIQUE ANGLE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT APPEARS TO BE NEAR SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE. MOIST AXIS WAS DRAWN ABOUT 35-45 NM AHEAD OF FRONT OVER MOST OF AREA. 850 AND 925 MB UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED MOIST AXES AT THOSE LEVELS NEARLY COLLOCATED FROM PNC-MKC-PIA. 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS AND LATEST VWP/PROFILER WINDS INDICATED LLJ AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S NEAR OKC-COU-SBN LINE. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT...ALONG SRN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME...S OF MOIST AXES AND N OF LLJ. MOIST ADVECTION...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS INCREASE COVERAGE...WHILE BAND TRANSLATES EWD 20-25 KT AND EMBEDDED CELLS MOVE FASTER NEWD. MODIFIED DVN/ILX/TOP/SGF RAOBS...ORD ACARS SOUNDING AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR MOIST AXIS...BUT ALSO INCREASING MLCINH LIKELY WITH EVENING DIABATIC COOLING NEAR SFC. THIS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL WITH TIME. MEANWHILE NEARLY PARALLEL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW TO CONVECTIVE PLUME SUPPORTS QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...LIKELY LIMITING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR HAIL. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ATOP MOISTURE PLUME...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT OVER NRN IL TO 35 KT NEAR MKC...WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SPORADIC SVR. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL IL AND NRN INDIANA INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL THETAE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2012 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Roger Edwards writes the best MD's at SPC hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I am starting to really need the rain and the line fires SW of me... Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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