Hoosier Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Doesn't show up here but the surface flow is 200ish. CINH setting in by this time so any tor window may be closed before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Doesn't show up here but the surface flow is 200ish. CINH setting in by this time so any tor window may be closed before this. Yeah there seems to be a fairly narrow corridor where some pretty decent hodos are forecast late tomorrow. If we can get initiation by late afternoon we may have a brief shot at a brief tornado, but I'm still not overly optimistic. The best wind profiles lie just east of the instability axis, but there is some overlap there. I'm planning on chasing, but I'm heading out knowing there's a good shot I'll come back home busted. At this point I'll be happy to see some decent structure, and maybe a nice wall cloud. EDIT: Just noticed the long-range RUC. Shows winds pretty unidirectional from the surface up to 850mb at 20z tomorrow in the instability axis. If that works out I probably wouldn't even bother. It's basically gonna come down to how things look tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 EDIT: Just noticed the long-range RUC. Shows winds pretty unidirectional from the surface up to 850mb at 20z tomorrow in the instability axis. If that works out I probably wouldn't even bother. It's basically gonna come down to how things look tomorrow morning.Save your gas money for that trough on Monday April 2. Looks powerful for plains and MS valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 My lord at the 12z GFS with the later threat that Indystorm mentioned...another Palm Sunday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 My lord at the 12z GFS with the later threat that Indystorm mentioned...another Palm Sunday event? 18z GFS holding suit as well as far as a major system but seems to show the surface low developing farther south in OK/KS. Something to watch this next week that has good potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 12z GFS did a similar thing, developed a double barrelled sub 990 mb SLP with one in KS and the other along the Manitoba/ND/MN border, some pretty high numbers showing in the instability too. That said, the Euro seems to be in some other world with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 My lord at the 12z GFS with the later threat that Indystorm mentioned...another Palm Sunday event? 18z sorta takes it away. Well, for the people in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 From LC's blog: Intense Spring Storm Targets Much Of U.S. In April 1 - 4 Time FrameEnvironment Canada NOAA/NCEP Plymouth State University Weather Server (2) That storm sequence over the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska will prove troublesome for residents of the U.S. during the first few days of April. Whereas the first impulse in the series will minor out into central Canada, the second system is shown by most of the computer schemes to take on a much more amplified look as it digs through the Intermountain Region on April 1. Spawning a new surface wave over the TX/OK Panhandle region, this feature may interact with a weak upper disturbance moving along the southern branch from Mexico into Texas, setting off heavy or severe thunderstorms across parts of the south central states. As the secondary cyclone deepens and heads toward Lake Superior (April 3), the Corn and Tobacco Belts could be in for a rather impressive outbreak of intense convection. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 FWIW the 0z NAM has a good bit more instability tomorrow (2000 j/kg up to DVN) but getting convection is going to be the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Not too bad if we manage to get something to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Not too bad if we manage to get something to fire. Where's that at??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Between the QC and Peoria at 00z. Just slightly east of the best instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Between the QC and Peoria at 00z. Just slightly east of the best instability. not bad, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 This thing is advecting a nice cap along with it on the GFS, the parcel path on forecast soundings over Madison never gets favorable. Things are a little better down towards central Illinois as far as actually getting convection goes. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=03&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=00&fhour=24¶meter=CIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 not bad, not bad Yeah I really like that zone from the surface up to about H8. If we can get a storm in an environment like that with some of the better instability shown just west of this area then we may be in business. As T-snow mentioned, even if we have all of that we have to worry a bit about storm initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Yeah I really like that zone from the surface up to about H8. If we can get a storm in an environment like that with some of the better instability shown just west of this area then we may be in business. As T-snow mentioned, even if we have all of that we have to worry a bit about storm initiation. I believe there will be something, it's just a matter of getting it in the right environment at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 LCL's are on the high side on some of these soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 LCL's are on the high side on some of these soundings. And there's still no forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 The forcing issue is a big one, as well as the lack of low-level convergence. LCLs never even crossed my mind with all the other issues with this setup lol. I've gone back and forth about 100 times in my mind about various variables with this setup. Originally this was looking like a northern Iowa/southern Minnesota chase several days ago. Things were looking much better then. I have some new equipment I want to try out, so unless the setup looks completely abysmal tomorrow morning I'm probably still gonna head out just for the hell of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 You know tonight will be the night that the SPC 4km WRF doesn't come in. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 FWIW the 00z GFS does break out some precip between the QC/Galesburg/Peoria triangle just after 00z. This is near the location of the forecast sounding I posted from the NAM a bit earlier. The GFS forecast soundings in this area aren't as good though, with a more veered lower 1km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 RGEM breaks out precip across western Illinois around 00z as well. EDIT: Another FWIW, the long-range RUC initiates as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 15/15/5 on the new day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 So much for the 30% hatched tornado probs I was hoping for. In all seriousness I was actually a bit surprised to see 5% tor probs given the issues we have all pointed out over the last day or two. Can't wait to see how this all plays out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 And there's still no forcing. this, not going to get something on heating alone. Plus the lack of low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 So much for the 30% hatched tornado probs I was hoping for. In all seriousness I was actually a bit surprised to see 5% tor probs given the issues we have all pointed out over the last day or two. Can't wait to see how this all plays out tomorrow. agreed, really a bit shocked to see that. and they have the 5% area way too far east. there is no way supercellular structured storms are gonna make it that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 this, not going to get something on heating alone. Plus the lack of low level convergence. Yeah but even many of the lower-res models blow up precip. They are clearly picking up on something. Not 100% sold on that actually happening, but I'm definitely not blowing it off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 agreed, really a bit shocked to see that. and they have the 5% area way too far east. there is no way supercellular structured storms are gonna make it that far. At first I was surprised to see the 5% area that far east as well, but upon further examination, the NAM has about 500 J/kg MLCAPE into western IN at 6z with pretty good shear. Serious questions about whether the boundary layer will be able to stay mixed enough but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 The importance of where a parcel if lifted from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I'm certainly not holding my breath on this one to see anything to impressive. I wouldn't be shocked to see a few reports of severe/tornadoes maybe by Quincy/Springfield somewhere in there but thats probably it for TOR threat. Otherwise maybe an isolated marginal wind/hail threat given that temps will be trying to surge to the upper 70s with dews climbing towards 60 or thereabouts... I also don't know if I'd write off the area just South of the warm front for a small tornado threat perhaps over NW-NC Illinois too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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