Ontario is not ready

[on_wx]

Long read.

I'm a little bit curious to see how the upcoming tornado season in Southern Ontario will be handled by the weather service and media. For a very long time, 24 years, Ontario had not recorded a single tornado fatality. We also went about the same time without much of a tornado outbreak. We've had some small ones over the years which were usually just a couple of small F0-F1 tornadoes over farmland. Other than those there have been several F2 tornadoes, but once again damage was light due to their rural natures. In 1996 two F3's tore the countryside and produced significant damage to rural towns, though. Injuries were limited and no fatalities were a result. I believe they stand as the most damaging and most publicized tornadoes of the 1990s.

In 2006 our so called "tornado-less" streak ended when about 12 tornadoes hit on August 2. I think at the time it was the 2nd worst outbreak in terms of how many tornadoes were confirmed. Most of them hit the open wilderness and slightly mountainous areas of central and eastern Ontario, but a couple rural locations experienced F2 damage. At the time it caught the eye of media, and during the event was a bit of a panic because EC was using the term "This is a very high impact situation" in their warnings, which comparatively is probably along the lines of a tornado emergency on this end of the border. That day featured several discrete supercells and the main show with a highly damaging tornadic squall line. I think a lot of people woke up that day remembering our violent tornado history.

We went another five years before anything really significant happened. On August 20, 2009 about 18-20 tornadoes tore up towns and cities from Lake Huron to Lake Ontario prompting one-third of Canada's population to be put under a tornado warning. Only one fatality occurred that day in the town of Durham, Grey County when the tornado unfortunately plowed through an outdoor day camp. It is really a miracle that no one else was killed that day. Entire subdivisions were nearly reduced to rubble in the Greater Toronto Area with a 2011 population of 6 million and 8 million in outlying areas. For decades before the outbreak we were victims of numerous false alarms and it really did show with people and media ignoring warnings.

Afterwards, there was a surge of panic debating tornado sirens and emergency alert systems. The outbreak prompted the provincial government to implement the "Red Alert System", which IMO was doomed from the get-go. It's basic purpose is instead of rebroadcasting weather warnings to select partners involved, the provincial emergency management agency basically issues it's own warning on an already existing Environment Canada warning. They often come a half an hour late or more and are non-specific. But, we'll see how this system develops over the years. It's been in trial stage since 2010. There have been several cringe-worthy moments.

Now, by winter 09/10 all the hype of a proper warning system had died down. Media retreated and the public "forgot". Until June 5/6 2010 when a tornadic supercell from Detroit Michigan produced something like 5 tornadoes over Essex County with an F1 tornado impacting the city of Leamington (pop about 30,000) at 3am or so in the morning. Damage was extensive and people were paying attention again. One of the tornadoes near Leamington was confirmed at F2 strength, so the city really dodged a bigger bullet. Thankfully no one was killed, but I remember watching Detroit radar in tears because I have not seen a supercell like that at night in Ontario impacting a city. Surprisingly though, a lot of Essex County residents have weather radios so they heard the tornado warning. I figure that plays down to the Detroit television news market influence on the area. I've never heard of media here advising to purchase weather radios. Not even The Weather Network.

After the tornadoes the warning system debate was back and Essex County officials met and discussed a tornado siren system. I only know of two counties in Ontario with tornado sirens. Lambton County including Sarnia, Corunna, and Aamjiwnaang -- and Elmira in Waterloo Region which is coincidentally my "county" (regional municipality which is an urban county in Ontario) just 15 km north of here.

By late June the tornado was long forgotten and all eyes were on the G20/G8 summit in Toronto and in Gravenhurst, Muskoka District Region. The day the summit began about 1pm in the afternoon a strong earthquake near Ottawa rocked the ground the Quebec to Cincinnati. There was actually significant to severe damage in southern Quebec and it started a public reaction and media frenzy coupled with the G20 expected riots. We were under a moderate risk that day including a 5% tornado risk. By early evening a supercell went up over Georgian Bay and as it traversed areas well north of Toronto word came in that it produced a damaging tornado in the city of Midland (pop about 20,000) without a tornado warning. Afterwards, several counties were placed under tornado warning and the entire evening was dedicated to tracking and reporting of the tornado. The tornado was confirmed an F2 with a cone shape through the city and it also hit the trailer park. THANKFULLY, no fatalities were a result. Another miracle for us. I certainly remember watching CP24 as they had the mayor on the phone and the reporter actually asked the mayor if they had a siren to warn of the tornado. That is a pretty significant milestone for Southern Ontario. A question like that would have never have been asked in years prior.

So, after the mess of the G20/G8 riots, the earthquake, and the tornadoes, all this disaster stuff was once again forgotten. It's a vicious cycle around here. Our population just isn't accustomed to these extremes. A lot of the older demographic are obviously aware of the big, and sometimes extremely fatal, tornado outbreaks through the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s. But over time it's very apparent they have forgotten...because they are the ones in power right now.

So after another quiet span over disasters, we were hit hard once again on August 21, 2011. A large destructive F3 tornado slammed the sleepy Lake Huron shoreline tourist town of Goderich, Ontario. The town favoured by our Queen for being the prettiest town in Canada was turned into a war zone in a matter of minutes. Sadly, one person was killed and 40 others were injured. The attention this tornado caused was at extreme levels. In the hours and days following there was "anarchy", so to speak, over tornadoes. Radio, news, the papers, etc. Suddenly municipalities were back on the tornado siren front, donation lines went up, and programs were holding tornado aid drives. This was a huge first for recent Ontario. There were even television shows doing give-aways and specials for the tornado victims.

Three days later wrought more storm devastation to our area on August 24, 2011. Almost all of southern Ontario was put under a tornado warning, and as a first for this area, everyone was watching. Only four weak tornadoes were confirmed, but it was a very anxious time for everyone. It was like a scene from the US with media live on tv and radio tracking the storms. That has never really happened here. But, people were desperate for information this time around. An F1 tornado touched down in my regional municipality and tracked 15 kilometres into the adjacent city of Hamilton(that holds county status). Its damage was highly publicized on area news. We have over 500,000 people in my regional municipality. The local Kitchener-Waterloo tv station has actually implemented a television emergency message crawl for its channel and has hired an actual meteorologist. It will be interesting how this plays out.

So, in summary, we went one hell of a long time without violent severe weather, but in the last couple of years this trend is turning around and people are really starting to pay attention. Several fronts are being gained in the warning process, but I still don't think we are anywhere near where we should be. I'm very concerned for what mother nature could throw at us at anytime. As I said, we are barely where we should be and quite frankly we are not equipped to deal with even a single strong to violent tornado hitting a major metropolitan area. Heck, even an F1 could mean terrible human loss. We've been so fortunate for decades with tornadoes missing towns and cities, but that could change on a moments notice. And it has been. There are also, still after all we've been through, very few options to receive an actual tornado warning and schools, businesses, hospitals, residents, etc are not prepared. Just looking at Ontario tornado history, there have been several dozen F4/F3 tornadoes hitting large cities in the past resulting in severe damage and loss of life.

TL;DR Ontario is not prepared for a tornado and we've been dodging bullets but could change on a dime.

[SpartyOn]

Awesome write up. Have you taken your concerns to the elected officials?

[on_wx]

Awesome write up. Have you taken your concerns to the elected officials?

Yes to local and provincial leaders. None are concerned because each city has an emergency plan and it would be enacted in the event of a tornado. It's also mostly small towns or small cities that have discussed tornado sirens in Southern Ontario. The big cities think they are too expensive. My regional municipality for example believes they are too costly but they just announced to spend a billion ($1,000,000,000) dollars on building a monorail through the three cities in the region. There have also been some huge critics of sirens in the media. One claimed sirens did absolutely no good for Greensburg, KS because people only had enough time look up then the siren was destroyed. Flawed logic. There has been an emergency alert system in development for years in Ontario, but it's still not ready. http://alerts.pelmorex.com/en/

We had a tornado miss in 2007 and afterwards I went to the tv station, but they didn't believe emergency preparedness or weather radios would fit their needs for reaching television ratings. They since changed their minds on that matter and dedicate a broadcast or two to discussing disaster planning. The newspaper also includes a special page every emergency preparedness week and advices how to make a plan, etc. It's all a start.

[QcSevereWx]

Quebec has never been ready. We had a couple F3 in the past with no fatalities. It's been 18 years since the last F3. The warning system is brutal. There are at least 5 serious storm chasers in Quebec, including myself, we chased a lot in the Great Plains, but most of our chases are in Qc and Ontario, and we do our best to inform the public when there's tornado potential.

1 F3 - 1 F2 august 4 1994

2 F3 - 2 F2 august 27 1991

The last F2 was in Mont-Laurier, with no fatalities....

[Roger Smith]

I share your concerns. The statistical probability of a major destructive tornado in Ontario remains higher than most people would imagine, in climatology terms alone, there is no really strong reason why Ontario should have different outcomes than Michigan or southern New England, both of which have seen 100+ death events and large tornadoes in the F3-4 range. For that matter, so has Ontario. Two F3 storms were involved in the 10 deaths recorded May 31, 1985, and there was an even stronger F4 near Woodstock in August 1979 that stayed over rural areas but caused several deaths.

In 1953, another year with a mild winter and very little snow, a severe tornado hit Flint MI (June 8, I believe) and this tracked into southwestern Ontario before dissipating. That outbreak went on to devastate Worcester MA the next day. Hundreds died in these two storms and there were one or two fatalities in the Ontario portion of the event.

The writing is on the wall so to speak, for a larger tornado event than has ever been seen historically, especially when you factor in the warming trend in climate and the spread of suburban development which increases the target area. Ontario needs a more developed tornado warning system. It should cover at least the southwest, central and eastern counties although even Sudbury has seen tornado deaths (in Aug 1970 at Lively, northwest of the city). Northwestern Ontario is another region that sees frequent severe weather.

Also, I don't think this would require much expenditure. EC, working with TWN, should be able to designate a lead tornado forecast team and require them to issue daily outlooks as an extension of the US SPC outlooks and then these should be upgraded to watches and warnings, rather than just having it done as part of the general forecasting routine. If they wanted advice on who to name, I could do that privately (I am aware of at least two people capable of doing this challenging service already available). Then also there should be the same level of public awareness buildup that takes place in tornado season in the Midwest and plains states. This would basically take the form of an awareness day (or week) that contacted the media and emergency planners to explain the upgraded forecast system.

To place a further incentive in their path, yours truly will undertake to watch more closely for tornado potential in southern Ontario this year, and start dedicated threads (if not already in existence from other AMwx members) that you Ontario residents can use proactively (call media, give links, if you feel that the existing awareness or warnings are inadequate). But I'm not being paid and might not be around to do this (for example I plan a three week holiday in August). So we should share the load, this is not rocket science, tornadoes don't magically stop at the border (yet, I am sure Harper is working on this). The U.S. guidance extends into Ontario even if nobody at the SPC has the region in mind, simply because it intrudes into the space being analyzed. To some extent you can say the same for the prairies although a tornado outbreak in Edmonton might not attract the attention of the SPC. One that threatened Regina or Winnipeg would be more likely to be an extension of an outbreak over U.S. territory.

[Roger Smith]

Do you guys think the problem is with forecast products or with media involvement? I have not studied the problem very carefully, but can recall seeing tornado watches and warnings on map products shown on TWN. Have they missed some, or is the problem more with other media not picking up on the same products? Are the products only available to TWN viewers or are they generated by EC for wider dissemination? Those questions would probably generate the required answers to how the system should be upgraded. But it needs to be worked out first of all, are the problems with forecasting, warning, or communication? I am guessing it is one part forecasting, two parts warning and about five parts communication.

[QcSevereWx]

Here in Quebec, If someone is not watching Meteomedia, no other channel will show the warning(s), not even the news. If you're not watching television, your only hope is the internet with EC website. It's a recipe for disaster.

The major problem here is the communication part. The severe weather is not taken seriously. They call it '' mini-tornado'' .

[on_wx]

Do you guys think the problem is with forecast products or with media involvement? I have not studied the problem very carefully, but can recall seeing tornado watches and warnings on map products shown on TWN. Have they missed some, or is the problem more with other media not picking up on the same products? Are the products only available to TWN viewers or are they generated by EC for wider dissemination? Those questions would probably generate the required answers to how the system should be upgraded. But it needs to be worked out first of all, are the problems with forecasting, warning, or communication? I am guessing it is one part forecasting, two parts warning and about five parts communication.

Both. Firstly, I do not agree with the generic blanket warnings EC likes to issue almost every event. They'll throw everyone under a warning before storms have even kicked off then after the storms clear out into NY they will cancel the warning. As if a warning is the equivalent of a watch. I think that building an emergency warning system would be very difficult because of how warnings are issued. Also, every warning region includes one to three cities in that region. "Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo", "Misssissauga - Brampton", "London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County" etc etc etc. These warning region names probably already cause a lot of false alarms so when you throw in a siren network or emergency alert system there would be towns 30 kilometres outside the danger zone believing they are in danger because Environment Canada does not indicate where a tornado will be near. They depend on the fixed town names in the warning name.

I only know this is the case for Sarnia where they have an emergency alert system and sirens. Their warning zone is "Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County" and even if a tornado is 30 km south of them in rural SW Lambton County, because it says Sarnia in the warning name they will and always do activate the sirens and interrupt the tv cable telling everyone to take shelter.

Secondly, communication issues are huge. You can always trust on The Weather Network for some storm coverage, but not everyone gets the channel. They also misuse the emergency red bar during warnings. Instead of saying like "Severe Thunderstorm Warning for *Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County" they group warning zones into an even larger warning zone so it reads "Severe Thunderstorm Warning for *Waterloo - Wellington - Dufferin". Why on earth would they want to warn 3 counties like that with a combined population of almost a million people? Makes no sense.

But yes, tv and radio stations is what I'm getting at. I'll have to pull up some old articles from national news dating to 2010 that stated Ontario was not doing enough during tornado warnings. People were turning on the news for information and they would be playing Days of Our Lives or something...or commercial free music hours on the radio.

Also May 31, 1985 featured 13 tornadoes and 12 fatalities. Eight were killed in the city of Barrie as the F4 slammed the city.

2 F0's

3 F1's

2 F2's

4 F3's

2 F4s

August 7, 1979 featured two F4 tornadoes with one of them slamming the city of Woodstock. There it killed two people. May, 2, 1983 an F4 hit just outside of Sarnia in Recess Corners. May 21, 1953 an F4 slammed Sarnia and killed at least 7 people. April 3, 1974 an F3 slammed Windsor and killed 9 people. 1946 an F4 hit Windsor and killed 17. The list goes on. We are no stranger to violent and deadly tornadoes. In total, at least 25 F3 tornadoes and 12 F4 tornadoes have been confirmed in Ontario. Maybe a hundred or more fatalities?

[DAFF]

I think Amherstburg has the sirens too.

Living only minutes from the Leamington tornado I first hand saw all the damage. The funnel cloud come off lake Erie and touched down on land a few feet from our best friends home. Roofs were torn off and debris all over and the damage continued for miles. A secton of 100+ year old trees were demolished in seconds and the landscape was changed forever.

As for the timing of the storm was good. For during the day the amount of injuries and deaths would of been much greater. It traveled along a very buisy torist route from Harrow to Leamington.

As for EC and Tornatic warnings in our region, they always drop the ball IMO..... I will continue to monitor NOAA and transpose storm potential from the other side of the lake or river.

[an uncanny otter]

I think there is this misconception among people that live in Ontario (and, by extension, the rest of Canada as well) that tornadoes can only hit in the southernmost part of the country. If you were to ask people that live in northern Ontario, or even anywhere north of Toronto for that matter whether they were at risk of seeing powerful tornadoes in that area, I think the general consensus would be "no". Over the past decade people have become more aware, especially since recently we have been seeing deadly tornadoes in places most never expected to see them (like the Ear Falls tornado of 2009 that killed three men from Oklahoma.)

Nobody is denying that the farther south you are, the more frequent tornadoes and thunderstorms will be. But people need to be aware that tornadoes can strike almost anywhere in Canada. Just because you live in Sudbury or Montreal doesn't mean a tornado "can't" hit those areas. There have been tornadoes in British Columbia and killer tornadoes in New Brunswick. Just look at how many thunderstorms/tornadoes hit around Ottawa and southern Quebec last year.

Since Canadians are less experienced dealing with tornadoes than Americans, I think we are also more prone to believing more tornado myths, e.g. that tornadoes can't strike large cities, can't form over mountains, etc. Like you mentioned, this has been changing in recent years, but we are still less experienced with handling these kind of situations. Even our weather agencies are less experienced (just consider the debacle with the Goderich tornado and the subsequent Aug. 24, 2011 outbreak)