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March 2012 General Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Not too bad behind the front...sunny..few puffy clouds...nice deep blue sky...crisp temps. Feels like a nice October day.

The sun is making it feel alot warmer, I was shocked to see it's 52 °F since I was walking around the city and thought it was in the mid 60s at least.

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Wow at the 12z NAM for Friday.

VERBATIM, it suggests 2-4" of snow.

Keep in mind however, while all the other levels are cool and dry, the warmest level (800mb), which has a maximum temperature of 1*C to 2*C, has a dewpoint measurement of nearly -20*C (yes, -20*C!!!)!!!

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Wow at the 12z NAM for Friday.

VERBATIM, it suggests 2-4" of snow.

Keep in mind however, while all the other levels are cool and dry, the warmest level (800mb), which has a maximum temperature of 1*C to 2*C, has a dewpoint measurement of nearly -20*C (yes, -20*C!!!)!!!

I think places around northern Oakland county and points north have a shot at seeing some snow here. But accumulating snow I have my early doubts.

EDIT: Detroit north.

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I think places around northern Oakland county and points north have a shot at seeing some snow here. But accumulating snow I have my early doubts.

Accumulating snow is more than possible, as history shows, in late March/early April, even in the daytime, if the rates are steady and heavy enough.

I'm assuming the NAM is by far the coldest and most aggressive with this storm so far, but still, it was interesting to see it.

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Euro early next week is really just a very strong cold front sweeping through the region with not much of a focused storm. Sunday looks like the warmest day of the year with 850 temps of 16+. The 12z Euro has +20 @850 Monday morning with a LOW temp in the mid to upper 60s. Yowza. The 850 temp craters and goes sub-zero by early Tuesday morning.

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Looks like a low 40s rainfall for Friday! Green Bay would be in line for snow on the NAM, northern burbs of Detroit. System drags in more nighttime 20s into the Great Lakes in its wake.

Nice - the DGEX! - of course this in April though.

eta.totsnow192.gif~ well hey, I guess it shows that the snow chances aren't over for the GL's.

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WOW! It looks like winter is coming back in a big way this Friday for parts of southern Ontario, including the Toronto area. Tonight's 00z model runs (NAM, RGEM and GFS) are showing accumulating snow. The NAM goes bonkers with 6-8" for Toronto. It will be interesting to see how this event unfolds. Should be a fun one to track, especially after the exceptionally warm weather the past two weeks.

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Special weather statement issued for a large area of southern Ontario. expecting up to two inches of snow friday and friday night. I also see that it looks to be a stripe from Northern MI, grazing northern Detroits CWA and right into Southern Ontario.

Special weather statement for:

=new= City of Toronto

=new= London - Middlesex

=new= Oxford - Brant

=new= Niagara

=new= City of Hamilton

=new= Halton - Peel

=new= York - Durham

=new= Huron - Perth

=new= Waterloo - Wellington

=new= Dufferin - Innisfil

=new= Grey - Bruce

=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland

=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland

=new= Kingston - Prince Edward

=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes.

Potential appreciable snow to round out the month of March.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==discussion==

March may have come in like a lamb, but it may leave like a lion. The

recent record warm spell may be cool comfort by Friday night as snow

appears likely in many areas of Southern Ontario. A disturbance is

taking shape over Kansas this morning and will track just south of

the Lower Great Lakes later on Friday. A band of precipitation will

accompany it, falling primarily as rain in the southwest, but a

Swath of snow and ice pellets appears likely from the shores of Lake

Huron eastwards to Lake Ontario and north towards Georgian Bay. It

will begin Friday afternoon near Lake Huron and reach Toronto later

in the day.

There is significant uncertainty as to the accumulation at this time.

But a swath of 5 centimetres is possible from roughly Southern Lake

Huron to around the west end of Lake Ontario. Somewhat lesser amounts

will fall both north and south of this band. There is some risk of

higher amounts, due to the rather heavy nature of the snow at times.

The snow will likely impact Friday evening rush hour traffic.

Temperatures will reach a few degrees above freezing Friday afternoon

but quickly drop to near or below freezing once the snow begins.

Drivers should exercise caution as untreated roads may become

slippery and snow-covered.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as

warnings may be required.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=on

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