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March 2012 General Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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MSN officially observed frozen precipitation this afternoon, probably one of the few in awhile around this part of the country. I was driving through it and it was going pretty good.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=KMSN&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

15:15 42.8 26.6 36.3 52 13 ESE OK 29.41 30.34 25.32 lt ice pellets, lt rain 10.00 0.001 8500

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MSN officially observed frozen precipitation this afternoon, probably one of the few in awhile around this part of the country. I was driving through it and it was going pretty good.

http://mesowest.utah...&timetype=LOCAL

15:15 42.8 26.6 36.3 52 13 ESE OK 29.41 30.34 25.32 lt ice pellets, lt rain 10.00 0.001 8500

From mid 80's to Frozen Precip, crazy week of wx!

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Clouds that are moving in are raising temperatures - and sparing the local area a frost. Really close call earlier today though. Thursday morning looks chilly though. That moisture moving into the Rockford area is moving into some low dewpoint air. Might see some sleet out that direction.

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March 2012 average temps and departures in Indiana through yesterday.

EVV: 58.4 (+13.2)

LAF: 56.9 (+17.1)

HUF: 56.7 (+14.9)

IND: 56.6 (+15.2)

GEZ: 55.8 (+15.0)

BMG: 55.6 (+13.6)

EYE: 55.3 (+13.9)

MIE: 54.1 (+15.5)

SBN: 54.0 (+17.5)

GSH: 53.4 (+17.1)

IWX: 53.3 (+16.3)

FWA: 53.1 (+15.7)

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Something I drew up a little bit ago, top 10 warmest Marches for Indianapolis and what transpired each month after through August. Not much to read into, but somewhat interesting to me. With respect to the averages, and how I determined normal, above average, or below average, I used the city location all-time averages (1871 to 1942) and the airport all-time averages (1943 to 2011) for the specific years they pertained to.

The top 3 warmest on record stand out on their own compared to the other 7 in the list. All of them didn't feature one month above normal through August. Overall, seems to bias towards May and June being normal to below. April, June, and August are essentially 50/50 shots. Though again, it's just statistics, so I wouldn't draw any hard conclusions.

Normal: -0.5 to +0.5

Above: +0.6 or warmer

Below: -0.6 or colder

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Something I drew up a little bit ago, top 10 warmest Marches for Indianapolis and what transpired each month after through August. Not much to read into, but somewhat interesting to me. With respect to the averages, and how I determined normal, above average, or below average, I used the city location all-time averages (1871 to 1942) and the airport all-time averages (1943 to 2011) for the specific years they pertained to.

The top 3 warmest on record stand out on their own compared to the other 7 in the list. All of them didn't feature one month above normal through August. Overall, seems to bias towards May and June being normal to below. April, June, and August are essentially 50/50 shots. Though again, it's just statistics, so I wouldn't draw any hard conclusions.

Normal: -0.5 to +0.5

Above: +0.6 or warmer

Below: -0.6 or colder

Good stuff. Ian's thoughts on summer forecasting and this summer...

analog forecasting in summer is useless...persistence works pretty well though...there is no reason to go below normal this summer unless you have a huge cold bias

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If I had to wager I'd say the back half of summer has a better chance of being cooler than the first half relative to average but I'm sorta giving up on long range stuff after the debacle of this past winter.

Seasonal/long range forecasting is a pretty tough gig. I've learned it's way beyond what little weather knowledge I possess.

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Seasonal/long range forecasting is a pretty tough gig. I've learned it's way beyond what little weather knowledge I possess.

It's a different type of challenge for sure. I'm about 10x more comfortable with short range predictions but that also has its share of failures.

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