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March 2012 General Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Fog has finally lifted after about 16 hours of it. Cloudy, damp, seasonably mild day happening.

Wow, at the 6z GFS!

Anyone notice the change in teleconnections? -AO, NAO neutral, but heading somewhat negative.

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As of March 23rd the Average March Temperature is 59.4F, that is 1.9F above the all time record set 101 years ago at 57.5F. And 14.5F above normal.

The average high is 70.4F and the low is 48.F so far.

Looking at the current model trends and forecasts.

March 24: 72/52/62

March 25: 76/54/65

March 26: 75/55/65

March 27: 76/56/66

March 28: 78/61/70

March 29: 71/51/61

March 30: 71/51/61

March 31: 73/55/64

We are going to shatter that. It is not going to be close. We are looking at a final number in the 61-62F range now.

That would put March at 16-17F above normal. That is really hard to fathom.

It is going to be interesting to see how the models handle CAA with the lack of snow cover. The Lakes are also running warm, which should help as well if the flow is from the North over them? I have no idea just guessing there.

The 12z NAM and GFS show the brunt of the cold air sliding more east. This could end up a near miss on damaging freeze. But the trend for an April cold snap could change that for sure.

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As of March 23rd the Average March Temperature is 59.4F, that is 1.9F above the all time record set 101 years ago at 57.5F.  And 14.5F above normal.

The average high is 70.4F and the low is 48.F so far.

Looking at the current model trends and forecasts.

March 24: 72/52/62

March 25: 76/54/65

March 26: 75/55/65

March 27: 76/56/66

March 28: 78/61/70

March 29: 71/51/61

March 30: 71/51/61

March 31: 73/55/64

We are going to shatter that.  It is not going to be close.  We are looking at a final number in the 61-62F range now.

That would put March at 16-17F above normal.  That is really hard to fathom.

It is going to be interesting to see how the models handle CAA with the lack of snow cover.  The Lakes are also running warm, which should help as well if the flow is from the North over them?  I have no idea just guessing there.

The 12z NAM and GFS show the brunt of the cold air sliding more east.  This could end up a near miss on damaging freeze.  But the trend for an April cold snap could change that for sure.

I think your math may be a little off as far as the final projection. There's still a week left in the month and averages will go up at least slightly. With those projected daily departures, I'm not sure STL would finish above +15

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~~~

It is going to be interesting to see how the models handle CAA with the lack of snow cover. The Lakes are also running warm, which should help as well if the flow is from the North over them? I have no idea just guessing there.

The 12z NAM and GFS show the brunt of the cold air sliding more east. This could end up a near miss on damaging freeze. But the trend for an April cold snap could change that for sure.

As long as the winds are not strong over the lakes and the air is relatively calm, it doesn't matter that water temperatures are in the 40s. Cold air sinking from above from the high will supply the cold air to the surface. The NAM showed freezing temperatures right to the lake shores.

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I think your math may be a little off as far as the final projection. There's still a week left in the month and averages will go up at least slightly. With those projected daily departures, I'm not sure STL would finish above +15

Your right, those would make 60.7F for the month.

the mean is 46.3F. So that would be around 14.4F.

I thought it was around 45F. I must have been looking at the previous climo for that.

Well one thing is for sure, the all time record is going down, this is like a baseball team clinching a playoff spot a month early.

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Had about 10 minutes or partial sun, now ceilings are lowering with scud clouds moving in off the lake. Probably more fog tonight. High 58° today.

Edit - 6:15pm: Down to 50°, with fog drifting back in - about the same time as yesterday.

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Enjoy your trip man and keep the pics coming when you have a chance..some girls gone wild on spring break shots would be nice, too. And just think when you get back you'll have the Tropical waters of Lake Michigan to return to.
Thanks. I took some time to snap a few pics this afternoon, and I'll posted them later.

Chilling at the outdoor bar right now, watching some drunk lesbians grind on their 3rd floor balcony.

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DTX

AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL GIVEN WE ARE STILL IN THE

MONTH OF MARCH...HOWEVER THE 2 WEEK STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER HAS

ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BUD OUT. THIS MEANS A NORMALLY INSIGNIFICANT

COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD KILLING

FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS TOO

FAR OUT TO ISSUE HEADLINES AS IT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD...HEADLINES

ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

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DTX

AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S.

NORMALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL GIVEN WE ARE STILL IN THE

MONTH OF MARCH...HOWEVER THE 2 WEEK STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER HAS

ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BUD OUT. THIS MEANS A NORMALLY INSIGNIFICANT

COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD KILLING

FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS TOO

FAR OUT TO ISSUE HEADLINES AS IT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD...HEADLINES

ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

That's some strong wording.

Looks like most of MI will be at or below freezing tonight.

Back door cold front approaching this area. Already starting the cool off up towards MKE.

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