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March 2012 General Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Even over here in eastern Iowa the stratus deck has been locked in for two days. We're struggling just to get out of the 40s.

We're struggling to get out of the 30s today, stuck at 38 °F. The southern edge of the stratus deck is quickly eroding but probably not quickly enough for any part of today to be nice.

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.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON

1131 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE LATEST RUC AND NAM/WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUDS

WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THINKING THAT OUR HIGH

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS WAY TOO GENEROUS. YESTERDAY UNDERNEATH

THESE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND

UPPER 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN. EVEN IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND

NORTHEAST IOWA...THEY WERE ONLY ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AND

THAT WAS DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE LATEST RUC

IS ONLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS

RATHER REASONABLE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN OUR

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO TAKE OUR EXISTING MAXIMUM

TEMPERATURE GRID AND BLEND IT WITH THE LATEST RUC. MOST LIKELY

STILL TOO WARM...BUT AT LEAST IT IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

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Sun is trying to peek out here. The visible loop shows the stratus rapidly eroding from the south with a bit of erosion west of Chicago as well. There are plenty of high clouds spilling across eastern Iowa, but if the stratus can erode completely we should at least get enough sun to get us to 60.

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Stuck in the 40's here too. Gonna need a rally to get to the forecasted high of 60.

My point yesterday morning was predicting 61 for today. This morning they dropped it to 53. It is now showing steady temps at 48, which is my current temp. Stratus sucks.

They were predicting 78 for Sunday here for several days, but yesterday dropped it to 74, owing to clouds and rain. We'll see how that pans out.

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Temps underachieved big time today.  Currently at 54 which could still go up a little.  Barring a 4 degree rise, today will be the first time since March 9 that the high was below average.  But the mild morning ensures an overall above average departure for the day, making it the 22nd consecutive day.

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Assuming todays high/low of 43/35 hold, the mean temp for the month will be 50.6F at DTW, so even though weve chilled that mean down the past several days, this is still the warmest March on record, breaking the 1945 record by 2.7F. Its crazy to think that in a month where you smash the all-time record for warmest March on record, only 22 of the 31 days were above normal!! Speaks volumes for the magnitude of that torch!

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both DVN and LOT have mentioned possible MCS develop late tonight across eastern IA and pushing ESE across IL during the early morning hours. Decent shear and 1000+ j/kg of MUCAPE could make for some nice elevated convection.

Yeah several of the HRRR runs have developed some nice elevated hailers over far eastern Iowa later this evening.

After the cool/cloudy first 2/3 of the day the late day sun managed to push us up to 58.

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Preliminary 56.6 for IND this March, depending on today's min temp which is 47 of right now. It bests the previous March record of 51.9 (1910 and 1946) by 4.7 degrees. Sort of interesting, but the coldest March on record, 26.2 in 1960, is 4.8 degrees colder than the second coldest on record of 31.0 in 1906.

Looking at the individual monthly records, here's the greatest differences between first and second place. Four of the six are cold records. Both the warmest and coldest Januaries and Marches make the list and/or take up the top four. Data for Indianapolis dates back to 1871.

5.2 - January 1880 (45.0) and January 2006 (39.8)

4.8 - March 1960 (26.2) and March 1906 (31.0)

4.7 - March 2012 (56.6) and March 1910/1946 (51.9)

4.3 - January 1977 (10.3) and January 1918 (14.6)

3.5 - November 1880 (31.1) and November 1976 (34.6)

2.3 - April 1907 (43.3) and April 1961 (45.6)

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SLGT risk was added with the latest outlook and new MD just issued for eastern IA and parts of northern IL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0852 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010152Z - 010245Z

AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING

HRS FROM CNTRL IA EWD INTO NWRN IL...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE

HAIL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SPECIFIC TIMING/MAGNITUDE

OF SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED

FOR A POSSIBLE WW...PERHAPS AS SOON AS THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

SFC ANALYSIS FROM 01Z PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM 30 SSE OTM TO 10 NNW

SUX. TO THE NE OF THE WARM FRONT...RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED

APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF CEDAR RAPIDS...WITH A NARROW WAA REGIME AIDED

BY A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DMX VWP/. WITH TIME...A GRADUAL

INTENSIFICATION/EWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED AT 7-8 C/KM PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING/ AND MUCAPE

VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE W-NWLY MIDLEVEL

FLOW...WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. A MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE

HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE /INCLUDING 23Z WRF-HRRR

AND 12Z WRF-NMM/ APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW/FAR EAST WITH INITIAL

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR A GRADUAL EWD

EXPANSION OF TSTMS INTO ERN IA AND EVENTUALLY NRN IL AS LOW-LEVEL

WAA BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER E. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING

EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL THREAT

REMAINS...BUT THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS.. 04/01/2012

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

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First severe storm warning of the year in my area, just east of me. I was outside a little while ago when this cell first formed. It was clear over me with the moon and Venus shining brightly while the eastern third of the sky was lit up with lightning-filled clouds.

Update: Severe warning for Cedar Rapids now.

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