Hoosier Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST IS AT HAND THIS PERIOD...WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND NON-TRIVIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM REGARDING UPPER LOW TIMING AND LOCATION. WITH SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY REGION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER COLD POOL...AND THE THREAT FARTHER S DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION OF THE WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXIS...MODEL DIFFERENCES SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATE DELINEATING SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...BUT GIVEN BROAD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL -- I.E. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE INSTABILITY IN BOTH AREAS...ALONG WITH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A BROAD ZONE CIRCLING THE UPPER LOW -- WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE/BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW -- ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH AREA -- WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS IS APPARENT...WITH AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 IMO, hail looks like the biggest threat of the 3 tomorrow. Could be one of those days with copious hail production where we get some reports about hail covering the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 IMO, hail looks like the biggest threat of the 3 tomorrow. Could be one of those days with copious hail production where we get some reports about hail covering the ground. This. Doesn't look chase worthy even if I could chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 It's funny that IND doesn't even mention severe in their disco, but IWX is worried about dry slot clearing and resulting severe storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk area extended to at least I-80 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 It's funny that IND doesn't even mention severe in their disco, but IWX is worried about dry slot clearing and resulting severe storms It's probably because of the oddball MI counties in their CWA. I swear the Lakes do their own thing when it comes to storms, quite often the opposite of what is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 There's a pretty wet-looking complex of cells heading towards Fenton over Livingston County... just got a SVR warning on it. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 632 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... NORTH CENTRAL WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 730 PM EDT * AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORRICE TO WHITMORE LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... OAK GROVE AROUND 640 PM EDT. COHOCTAH AROUND 645 PM EDT. DEERFIELD TOWNSHIP AND HARTLAND AROUND 655 PM EDT. TYRONE TOWNSHIP AROUND 710 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Getting heavy low rumbles of thunder in the RO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 We got a nice steady rain, nothing I'd call a downpour, but 1/2 mile west of here it was raining quite heavy. Another mile west of that looks like they really got dumped on. Saw some pretty pitchfork lightning in the clouds a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 A lake breeze storm went up over central Wellington County just a clip north of here. Several smaller storms tried their best to develop over me as the Wellington Co storm was in progress. Turned out to be quite an interesting cloud display with multiple towers over the city almost being pulled into the main storm. The winds also increased dramatically going into the storm during the whole event. Lasted about two hours. Don't know the entire process involved in lake breeze storms, but this one was one of the cooler storm days I've seen. There were so many towers over us at one point it looked like late evening. It was like a train of small storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 Some breaks in the clouds in an arc from north central IL into southwestern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 Slight risk extended north to I-80 and 5% tor probs central/southern IL into IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 2.50" Hail reported NW of Cape Girardeau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MATTOON ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING FROM EXTREME SERN MO INTO WRN KY AND SRN IL...IN ADVANCE OF AN EWD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MO. ZONES OF CLEAR SKIES WILL PERMIT STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE KY/SRN IL STORMS...AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ENHANCE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRODUCED BY STRONGER CELLS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THAT FORMS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025. http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 For any chasers out there today, one good thing is that these storms won't be flying at warp speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 PAH * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1215 PM CDT. * AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAND TOWER...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MURPHYSBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MURPHYSBORO AND CARBONDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1133 AM TORNADO 1 W NEELYS LANDING 37.50N 89.52W 03/23/2012 CAPE GIRARDEAU MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1242 PM TORNADO 2 E DU QUOIN 38.00N 89.20W 03/23/2012 PERRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER BRIEF ROPE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1237 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1232 PM TORNADO 3 NW CARBONDALE 37.76N 89.26W 03/23/2012 JACKSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER JUST NORTH OF SIU CARBONDALE AIRPORT. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN AND IT WENT BACK UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1230 PM TORNADO DOWELL 37.94N 89.24W 03/23/2012 JACKSON IL EMERGENCY MNGR BRIEF TOUCHDOWN JUST OUTSIDE THE CITY LIMITS OF DOWELL. IT TOUCHED DOWN AND THEN WENT BACK UP INTO THE CLOUDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1231 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1230 PM TORNADO ELKVILLE 37.91N 89.24W 03/23/2012 JACKSON IL PUBLIC PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OF A TORNADO NEAR TRUAX AND TRAYER ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1249 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 100 PM CDT... AT 1246 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DU QUOIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCH DOWNS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL WAS REPORTED IN DU QUOIN WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT. * AT 1250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DU QUOIN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWNS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NEAR DESOTO. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... TAMAROA AND WALTONVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT. * AT 1250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DU QUOIN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWNS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NEAR DESOTO. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... TAMAROA AND WALTONVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 Not to be a Monday morning quarterback but a tornado watch probably would've been justified instead of the severe t-storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 129 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT. * AT 126 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 2 MILES EAST OF OPDYKE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. A SECOND STORM WAS DETECTED WEST OF MOUNT VERNON...WHICH IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MOUNT VERNON...WOODLAWN...BLUFORD AND DIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 from earlier BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 218 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 245 PM EDT... * AT 217 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR FERN CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 The environment downstream in central/southern Indiana may remain somewhat favorable for brief tornadoes. LCL's aren't unreasonably high in much of the area, although low level flow a bit weaker than farther west which could reduce the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 208 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF IUKA...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLORA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS...AS WELL AS HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FLORA...XENIA...LOUISVILLE AND OSKALOOSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Most likely would not have been chasing even if i could, so I don't feel bad for missing today. Edit: Alright, I'm lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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