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will 2012 become the warmest year on record?


uncle W

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The three month period to start the year will probably end up the warmest on record...2010 and 2011 were warm years also...It will be the third straight year averaging 56.0 or better...The averages keep rising...we would need a major change for this warm pattern to end...
since 2010 the annual average temperature is running way above previous decade average..
ten yr ave.temp....highest.....lowest.
1870's.........51.8..........53.6.........49.4
1880's.........51.6..........53.2.........49.3
1890's.........52.9..........54.6.........50.4
1900's.........53.1..........55.0.........50.7
1910's.........53.0..........55.0.........50.7
1920's.........53.1..........54.9.........51.2
1930's.........54.4..........55.8.........53.0
1940's.........54.3..........56.9.........51.9
1950's.........54.8..........57.0.........52.5
1960's.........54.2..........55.1.........53.0
1970's.........54.6..........56.1.........53.0
1980's.........55.1..........56.0.........54.0
1990's.........55.6..........57.2.........53.7
2000's.........55.1..........56.8.........53.4
2010's.........56.6..........56.7.........56.4

The 1870's and 80's had a steady 20 years averaging 51.7...
From the 1890's to the 1920's Central Park averaged a steady 53.0 for the 40 years... From the 1930's to the 1970's CP averaged a steady 54.5... The 1980's and 90's were warmer averaging 55.4... The last 30 years are a steady 55.3...

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The three month period to start the year will probably end up the warmest on record...2010 and 2011 were warm years also...It will be the third straight year averaging 56.0 or better...The averages keep rising...we would need a major change for this warm pattern to end...

since 2010 the annual average temperature is running way above previous decade average..

ten yr ave.temp....highest.....lowest.

1870's.........51.8..........53.6.........49.4

1880's.........51.6..........53.2.........49.3

1890's.........52.9..........54.6.........50.4

1900's.........53.1..........55.0.........50.7

1910's.........53.0..........55.0.........50.7

1920's.........53.1..........54.9.........51.2

1930's.........54.4..........55.8.........53.0

1940's.........54.3..........56.9.........51.9

1950's.........54.8..........57.0.........52.5

1960's.........54.2..........55.1.........53.0

1970's.........54.6..........56.1.........53.0

1980's.........55.1..........56.0.........54.0

1990's.........55.6..........57.2.........53.7

2000's.........55.1..........56.8.........53.4

2010's.........56.6..........56.7.........56.4

The 1870's and 80's had a steady 20 years averaging 51.7...

From the 1890's to the 1920's Central Park averaged a steady 53.0 for the 40 years... From the 1930's to the 1970's CP averaged a steady 54.5... The 1980's and 90's were warmer averaging 55.4... The last 30 years are a steady 55.3...

the warmest years...

1998...57.2

1991...57.2

1990...57.2

1953...57.0

1949...56.9

2006...56.8

2010...56.7

1999...56.5

2011...56.4

2002...56.4

2001...56.3

1973...56.1

1983...56.0

1990 and 1991 were the two warmest back to back years...2010 and 2011 are the second two warmest and 2001/2002 the third...The warmth from 1990 and 1991 started in January 1990 and lasted until March 1992...This latest stretch of warmth started march 2010 and is still going...

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  • 3 months later...

It's certainly felt like the warmest year on record. With the exception of winter 2010-11, we've been torching since spring 2010. I would love to experience one of those blue lines on the graph - back in the 1800s - average yearly temp in the mid 40s. But unfortunately we never will with the oceans boiling over by 2050.

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  • 5 months later...

Good call, Uncle.

 

 

00NOUS41 KOKX 022042PNSOKXCTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-032000-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY341 PM EDT WED JAN 2 2013...2012 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT CENTRAL PARK NY...FOR THE YEAR OF 2012...CENTRAL PARK NY (NYC) RECORDED AN AVERAGETEMPERATURE OF 57.3 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE WARMESTYEAR ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 57.2 DEGREES...RECORDED INTHE YEARS OF 1990...1991 AND 1998. RECORDS FOR CENTRAL PARK DATEBACK TO 1869.
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1244 PM EDT FRI JAN 4 2013

...2012 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

...OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAD RECORD BREAKING WARMTH AS

WELL...

FOR THE YEAR OF 2012...CENTRAL PARK NY (NYC) RECORDED AN AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE OF 57.3 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST

YEAR ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 57.2 DEGREES...RECORDED IN

THE YEARS OF 1990...1991 AND 1998. RECORDS FOR CENTRAL PARK DATE

BACK TO 1869.

A SAMPLE OF OTHER FIRST ORDER CLIMATE LOCATIONS REVEALS THEY ALSO

CAME IN WITH RECORD BREAKING WARMTH. HERE IS THAT DATA.

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND NORMALS FROM 2012:

STATION 2012 RANKING PREVIOUS RECORD NORMAL VALUE DEPARTURE

NYC 57.3 1 57.2 1990/91/98 55.0 2.3

LGA 58.5 TIED(1) 58.5 2006 55.5 3.0

JFK 57.0 1 56.2 1991 54.5 2.5

EWR 57.8 1 57.6 1990 54.9 2.9

ISP 55.3 1 55.0 1998 52.3 3.0

BDR 55.6 1 54.3 1991/2010 52.5 3.1

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THE AREA WAS GENERALLY DRIER THAN AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND NORMALS.

STATION 2012 NORMAL VALUE DEPARTURE LAST YEAR VALUE

NYC 38.51 49.94 -11.43 72.81

LGA 36.71 44.73 -8.02 65.34

JFK 39.85 42.77 -2.92 55.78

EWR 36.35 46.25 -9.90 69.91

ISP 44.71 46.24 -1.53 52.32

BDR 40.99 42.74 -1.75 57.88

AS YOU CAN SEE...CENTRAL PARK NY WAS QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...NONE OF

THESE LOCATIONS BROKE INTO THE TOP 10 LIST FOR PRECIPITATION.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...DATA IS USUALLY CALCULATED FROM JULY TO JULY...

NOT CALENDAR YEAR.

$

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