Thundersnow12 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I will be floored if there is a tornado today. Absolutely floored. I don't know what's more inhibitive, the cap or the sky-high cloud bases. Heck of an EML for March, H7 temps of 10 deg C in NE currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I will be floored if there is a tornado today. Absolutely floored. I don't know what's more inhibitive, the cap or the sky-high cloud bases. Yeah, far from a beauty of a set-up tornado-wise! Pretty amazing pattern, though. I struggled to get above zero celsius yesterday. It felt like winter again. Now, I've got a threat of elevated storms tonight. Could be a decent lightning show in ND/MN this evening/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 well, it looks like the low's jump is now progressing. the 21z sfc analysis i did here says the main low is starting to degrade in sheridan and the jump point just west of scottsbluff. the warm front is stretching from near DMO to near FSD to PIR. time to see what momma nature will whip up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Lots of DCAPE and steep mid level lapse rates, big time downdraft potential as updrafts help to mix down winds aloft along the cold front. A lot of 60 knot pixels down around 1000 feet near KUDX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Winds are already pretty strong in the CAA, but convective enhancement should get some nice gusts out of it. Custer and Chadron have both gusted over 50 knots already. Nice isallobaric component too. SPC meso page is showing about a 5-6 mb rise/fall couplet for the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Winds are already pretty strong in the CAA, but convective enhancement should get some nice gusts out of it. Custer and Chadron have both gusted over 50 knots already. Nice isallobaric component too. SPC meso page is showing about a 5-6 mb rise/fall couplet for the last 2 hours. DMC indeed initiated across N Nebraska as expected, but activity looks marginal at best in terms of organization. Will be interesting to see if the buidling NBL can be penetrated by any gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Thought this would be interesting to you guys.. A nice cluster of thunderstorms developed and is persisting this evening north of the Riding Mountain National Park in Manitoba. Quite a bit of lightning being observed with the activity along with cloud tops around 40,000 feet in height. That's the further north I've seen thunderstorms in March. Incredible. Still hoping for some elevated convection here tonight. A decent cluster right now in SW ND with additional convection trying to organize east through Jamestown. SPC has extended the 15% hail contours up to the MB border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 some very nice t-storms up there indeed, looking at the ec radars. wonder what they're observing on hwy 6 between the lakes attm. and the west end of bismarck/mandan area is getting clocked attm with minot next on the storm's list. wonder how those storms will get thru customs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Pretty amazing stuff. That area is in a snowfall warning. Expecting 10-15 cm of snow by tomorrow night. I'm intrigued by the southern ND complex. The stuff east of the main cluster appears to be gradually strengthening. SPC Mesoanalysis shows favorable lapse rates moving up into southern MB and a good push of moisture above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 in about 40 mins, you'll find out how much of a punch you'll get in pilot mound and killarney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Not sure if this is the best place for it (the date is right but the region is a little off in the title), so feel free to move this to the 3/29 thread if you think that is more appropriate. Subtle disturbance is lifting north across Kansas right now. If you loop a visible satellite you can even see the cyclonic rotation of the low level clouds as they drift north. Decent environment is setting up along I-70, as heating and moistening of the boundary layer takes place. This disturbance lifting north should only serve to enhance the convergence to its N/NE, right in the Salina vicinity. Very steep mid level lapse rates could produce some monster hail, but low level parameters are such that a tornado or two is entirely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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