HurricaneJosh Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Hey, folks! We're all really excited that Jack Beven, Senior Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center, has decided to join the conference! In addition to playing a major role in formulating those advisory and discussion products that we all so eagerly await during hurricane threats, Jack is a top authority on the Dvorak technique (for estimating tropical-cyclone intensity via satellite imagery), and he also chairs the Best Track Change Committee-- the group that makes the final decisions Re: the reanalysis of historical storms. So, Jack is a walking wealth of hurricane knowledge and inside info! The awesome thing: Jack is open to our suggestions Re: his presentation topic, as he wants to ensure it's interesting to this audience. So if you have any recommendations or thoughts, please post them here. We can't make any promises, but it will be good to at least know what people are interested in hearing about. Thanks, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Josh scored this one folks. He gets a big thanks from me. I would hope that you all would take his suggestions and try to come up with some topics for Jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 subtropical storms? Good work Josh. I found Bevin the most approachable and conversational of the NHC forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 We are very privileged and honored to have Dr. Jack Beven presenting at Conference II. Jack is a native Cajun and was born a couple of weeks after Hurricane Carla made landfall along the Middle/Upper TX Coast in September 1961. Jack graduated from LSU and received his B.S. in 1984 with a major in Physics and minored in the combined fields of Astronomy-Geology. Jack received his M.S. in Meteorology in 1988 and completed his Ph.D. in Meteorology in 1994 from FSU/Tallahassee. Jack began is NHC experience as an intern in 1988 and joined the NHC full time in 1993. Jack was promoted Lead Forecaster in 1998. Again, we are very honored and thrilled to have Jack presenting this year and everyone will enjoy Jack’s wide range of meteorological knowledge and his awesome speaking abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Can he give a presentation that finally puts an end to the concept of "due"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 WOO HOO!!!! This is thrilling that Dr. Beven will be at AMWX II!!! He is a very dynamic presenter, and anything he presents will be fantastic! GREAT GET Josh, my hurricane friend!! Even with all the snow weenies that will be there, the hurricane/warministas will be represented!!! Good job!!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Maybe the latest on the current suite of hurricane models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Sorry if I missed it somewhere, but is there a link to a website for said AmWx conference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Sorry if I missed it somewhere, but is there a link to a website for said AmWx conference? Do you see the huge banner at the top that says American weather confrence II? Click it... I dare you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 EDIT: link isn't working for me but a quick Google search lead me to the right place. haha, I did! And it just brought me to the forum. I'm inquiring about additional information regarding the conference such as, date, time, location, speakers, etc. I apologize for my naivete, I'm slightly new to the forums. cheers! Do you see the huge banner at the top that says American weather confrence II? Click it... I dare you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 haha, I did! And it just brought me to the forum. I'm inquiring about additional information regarding the conference such as, date, time, location, speakers, etc. I apologize for my naivete, I'm slightly new to the forums. cheers! Ahhhh, I see what your saying... If you click where the big gray II are and that will take you to the conference website. The red text will just bring you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Explain the difference between the relative ease of track forecasting and the great difficulty in intensity forecasting and possibly show recent developments from HFIP in improving intensity forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 Thanks for the kind words, Randy, Nick, and Eleanor! I was really excited that Jack said yes! And thanks, Nick, Mallow, and Adam for the cool ideas-- I think these could all be really cool topics. Please keep them coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Explain the difference between the relative ease of track forecasting and the great difficulty in intensity forecasting and possibly show recent developments from HFIP in improving intensity forecasts I like this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 I was trolling with my suggestion...please don't forward that to Bevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 Personally, I'd be interested in hearing about how intensity is estimated when wind data aren't available-- i.e., how they use satellite imagery (Dvorak), radar imagery, and pressure-wind relationships either operationally, in postanalysis, or in reanalysis to set wind speed. That may be too arcane for a wider group. But maybe it can be made sexy with some cool case studies-- like the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Personally, I'd be interested in hearing about how intensity is estimated when wind data aren't available-- i.e., how they use satellite imagery (Dvorak), radar imagery, and pressure-wind relationships either operationally, in postanalysis, or in reanalysis to set wind speed. That may be too arcane for a wider group. But maybe it can be made sexy with some cool case studies-- like the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938, etc. It's a pretty awesome topic, imo, but would probably be better served until we get Chris Landsea to attend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 It's a pretty awesome topic, imo, but would probably be better served until we get Chris Landsea to attend Yeah, agreed-- kinda. Chris is the lead reanalysis guy, but Jack chairs the Best Track Change Committee, does postanalysis every season, and is also a leading Dvorak authority, so... But I see what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Yeah, agreed-- kinda. Chris is the lead reanalysis guy, but Jack chairs the Best Track Change Committee, does postanalysis every season, and is also a leading Dvorak authority, so... But I see what you're saying. Good point. I forgot he was the chair of the Best Track committee. FWIW, I would love to listen to a 60 minute talk on the intricacies of the Dvorak technique, but I think you and I would be the only two that care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 Good point. I forgot he was the chair of the Best Track committee. FWIW, I would love to listen to a 60 minute talk on the intricacies of the Dvorak technique, but I think you and I would be the only two that care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Any other requests or suggestions before I compile the list for him? We have some good stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Why there were no landfalling hurricanes in 2012 could be a good topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Why there were no landfalling hurricanes in 2012 could be a good topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Any other requests or suggestions before I compile the list for him? We have some good stuff here. Ask him to demonstrate a specific hypothetical 500 mb pattern that would induce an Atlantic hurricane in the process of moving from south to north, offshore of the Mid-Atlantic, to make a historic left curve into the mid-Atlantic coastline. I'm interested to know of any historic cases and interested to know, given the fact that the Mid-Atlantic coastline geography is somewhat protective of landfall, how often this rare event could be expected. I'm thinking that a rare summer time closed low in the Ohio River Valley could cause a hurricane to retrograde but the timing and placement of features would have to be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'd like to hear Jack's response to the proposed changes in the NHC visual warnings i.e. "The Cone of Uncertainty". I know that Bill briefly touched on this last year, but knowing that a major change is forthcoming to include such criteria as storm surge, inland wind field etc... would be interesting and I suspect many may not be aware that these changes are in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 maybe this is too simple...but i'd like to hear about how Dr. Beven incorporates the different types of technology into a making a forecast...and I'd be interested to know if he thinks that too many meteorologists are relying too heavily on computer models and if he thinks "forecasting" might be going extinct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 You should ask him what it's like to work with living legends like Avila and Stewart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 You should ask him what it's like to work with living legends like Avila and Stewart. When it comes to the tropics, you just never have anything useful to bring to the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 When it comes to the tropics, you just never have anything useful to bring to the table. Yeah I was just thinking of that the ofter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah I was just thinking of that the ofter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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