Medium Range Discussion Spring 2012

[donsutherland1]

Below is a chart showing the April 16-30 temperature anomalies for cases during which the MJO was in Phases 1 or 2 with an amplitude <1 and ENSO R3.4 anomalies were in the -0.4°C to +0.1°C range (where the MJO is likely to move during and just beyond the third week of April):

Below is a chart with the same criteria, except that the amplitude is 0.5 to 1.5.

Given the outcomes, my guess is that ENSO makes a difference.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

My April 1-7, 2012 thoughts (Message #15) were as follows:

Given the forecast teleconnections, progression of the MJO, and weakening La Niña conditions, I suspect that the major stories for the April 1-7 timeframe will be:

1. Warmth in much of eastern North America, but focused on central Canada and the Central and Northern Plains States

2. Some cool anomalies in the eastern U.S. (a rare outcome in recent months)

The charts below are as follows:

Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -0.9°C to -0.2°C, a PNA of 0.00 to +0.75, and an AO of +1.00 to +2.00 for North America.

Right: The Objective Analogs centered on April 1, 2012 but rolled forward 3 days

...Conclusion:

Taking into consideration the observed decadal temperature trend, I believe the teleconnection analogs present a reasonable idea for the temperature anomalies during the first week in April. Adjustments would refine the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas to be somewhat below normal to near normal. The Southeast would probably wind up somewhat colder than normal. Most of the rest of the U.S. would be warmer than normal, except for the Pacific Northwest where some cool anomalies might also be present. Much of Canada would be warmer than normal except for Northwestern Canada where near normal readings with some cool anomalies could prevail.

The anomalies were:

[donsutherland1]

Some morning thoughts...

We've now moved into the coolest stretch for the Midwest/Great Lakes/East of the second week of April. However, if one takes a look at the 3-day mean anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere leading up to the April 8-15 period, one finds that there was not much notably cold air to be found on our side of the Hemisphere:

As a result, the cold is not likely to be very dramatic. It also is not likely to be prolonged. Consequently, the warmth will very likely outduel the cold in the Midwest/Great Lakes/East resulting in the April 8-15 period turning out on the warm side of normal in that area.

In the larger-scale picture, the continuing negative anomalies of the SOI indicate that the 2011-12 La Niña event has ended. Neutral to conditions are likely to predominate in the weeks ahead and borderline El Niño conditions may become likely at some point next month. ENSO anomalies alone are producing, among the raw analogs, 2002 and 2009 going forward. 2009 is a strong analog for the current month. It will be interesting to see if 2002 and/or 2009 hold up for the summer. 2002 featured a chilly May, but warm summer in the contiguous 48 states. In contrast, 2009 featured a warm May, but chilly summer in the contiguous United States. In Canada, May 2002 and May 2009 were chilly across most of the country. Summer 2002 was warm across much of central and southern Canada. Summer 2009 was cool across large parts of southern and central Canada. 2002 fits better with the observed decadal change in temperatures. While the analogs remain to be refined and subsequent ENSO data will be helpful, the overriding point is that one cannot automatically assume that the exceptional winter and early spring warmth will lead to a warm summer. A warm summer is on the table, but a cooler one is, too.

[Harry]

Some morning thoughts...

We've now moved into the coolest stretch for the Midwest/Great Lakes/East of the second week of April. However, if one takes a look at the 3-day mean anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere leading up to the April 8-15 period, one finds that there was not much notably cold air to be found on our side of the Hemisphere:

As a result, the cold is not likely to be very dramatic. It also is not likely to be prolonged. Consequently, the warmth will very likely outduel the cold in the Midwest/Great Lakes/East resulting in the April 8-15 period turning out on the warm side of normal in that area.

In the larger-scale picture, the continuing negative anomalies of the SOI indicate that the 2011-12 La Niña event has ended. Neutral to conditions are likely to predominate in the weeks ahead and borderline El Niño conditions may become likely at some point next month. ENSO anomalies alone are producing, among the raw analogs, 2002 and 2009 going forward. 2009 is a strong analog for the current month. It will be interesting to see if 2002 and/or 2009 hold up for the summer. 2002 featured a chilly May, but warm summer in the contiguous 48 states. In contrast, 2009 featured a warm May, but chilly summer in the contiguous United States. In Canada, May 2002 and May 2009 were chilly across most of the country. Summer 2002 was warm across much of central and southern Canada. Summer 2009 was cool across large parts of southern and central Canada. 2002 fits better with the observed decadal change in temperatures. While the analogs remain to be refined and subsequent ENSO data will be helpful, the overriding point is that one cannot automatically assume that the exceptional winter and early spring warmth will lead to a warm summer. A warm summer is on the table, but a cooler one is, too.

With 2009 sure but 2002? Not seeing that one? We had neutral to nino in 2002 as far as enso goes ( wondering how 02 got in the mix? ) and i am pretty sure the QBO has it's say ( well it does but you get what i am saying ) which was totally different in the 2002 case.

As said before i think people need to start looking MUCH further back ( pre 1950 ) for the clues granted 2008 - current now fits in. Just be sure to make some slight adjustments to the temps to account for the warming we have had.

I for one would not favor the warmer outcome for summer but as you said it is still on the table. Granted the warmer outcome is looking very slim at this point. IMO

[donsutherland1]

With 2009 sure but 2002? Not seeing that one? We had neutral to nino in 2002 as far as enso goes ( wondering how 02 got in the mix? ) and i am pretty sure the QBO has it's say ( well it does but you get what i am saying ) which was totally different in the 2002 case.

As said before i think people need to start looking MUCH further back ( pre 1950 ) for the clues granted 2008 - current now fits in. Just be sure to make some slight adjustments to the temps to account for the warming we have had.

I for one would not favor the warmer outcome for summer but as you said it is still on the table. Granted the warmer outcome is looking very slim at this point. IMO

Harry,

First, 2002 is coming up only in a partial analysis based strictly on the current ENSO evolution. That does not assure that it will be a leading analog for the summer, much less the winter. Certainly, a number of factors can be used to argue against its being a winter analog i.e., QBO, PDO, etc.

Second, the objective analogs from the GFS ensembles (8- and 11-day) and 12Z GFS (8-day and 11-day) are also showing some dates from 2002: 4/6/2002, 4/8/2002, and 4/10/2002.

Third, the evolving pool of potential analogs that will ultimately provide insight into my Winter 2012-13 thoughts contains more than just 2002 and 2009. Moreover, the pool also goes back prior to 1950. 2009 was one of my leading analogs for April. Moreover, it is remaining in the mix for upcoming months. Whether or not that persistence means anything at this point in time remains to be seen.

[Harry]

Harry,

First, 2002 is coming up only in a partial analysis based strictly on the current ENSO evolution. That does not assure that it will be a leading analog for the summer, much less the winter. Certainly, a number of factors can be used to argue against its being a winter analog i.e., QBO, PDO, etc.

Second, the objective analogs from the GFS ensembles (8- and 11-day) and 12Z GFS (8-day and 11-day) are also showing some dates from 2002: 4/6/2002, 4/8/2002, and 4/10/2002.

Third, the evolving pool of potential analogs that will ultimately provide insight into my Winter 2012-13 thoughts contains more than just 2002 and 2009. Moreover, the pool also goes back prior to 1950. 2009 was one of my leading analogs for April. Moreover, it is remaining in the mix for upcoming months. Whether or not that persistence means anything at this point in time remains to be seen.

Yeah winter is way off so i was not commenting on that. May end up with a much weaker Nino anyways. So yeah it is way too early for that talk. I have not given much thought to next winter other then what enso might do. My point was mainly about the summer.

[donsutherland1]

My point was mainly about the summer.

Even with the evolving ENSO, I'm unwilling to rule out a warm summer for the nation as a whole just yet, though I don't believe Summer 2012 will reach 2011's warmth (2nd warmest on record at 1.880 standard deviations above normal). Since 1998, the contiguous U.S. has seen only two cool summers on a nationwide basis (2004 -1.605 sigma and 2009 -0.906 sigma). Four of the last six were very warm (1 sigma or more above the 1981-2010 normal). The trend for the 1981-2010 period was +0.41° per decade.

The possibility of cool anomalies across part of the nation seems reasonably likely at this point, though there are some uncertainities concerning the location of those cool anomalies. Odds may favor somewhere in the eastern half of the U.S., possibly the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area being a little more likely than other locations. Nevertheless, I don't believe this is cast in stone and I will wait for more data before reaching firm conclusions.

[Chaser25973]

Sure, long range forecasts are always speculative. But you can't deny that warm has been running the board especially

since 2000 in the US. The chart from TWC blog shows all the red or above normal seasons in the US since 2000 (NCDC).

The last two years are just the exclamation point on a longer term pattern.

The problem with your argument is that it relies completely on the data used to calculate the value of "normal." It suggests that our climate should have some sort of "normalcy" to it. Summers should be hot, winters should be cold, Springs should be wet. This is just based upon the past 10,000 years or so of recorded history when the Earth itself is billions of years old. To use the word "normal" is arrogant and presumptious. We have no idea what is normal. What was "normal" to the human beings who lived through the medieval warm period?

I'm looking forward to an enjoyable Spring here in Hoboken. Normal, above normal or below normal, the weather for the most part has been downright gorgeous.

[Isotherm]

Even with the evolving ENSO, I'm unwilling to rule out a warm summer for the nation as a whole just yet, though I don't believe Summer 2012 will reach 2011's warmth (2nd warmest on record at 1.880 standard deviations above normal). Since 1998, the contiguous U.S. has seen only two cool summers on a nationwide basis (2004 -1.605 sigma and 2009 -0.906 sigma). Four of the last six were very warm (1 sigma or more above the 1981-2010 normal). The trend for the 1981-2010 period was +0.41° per decade.

The possibility of cool anomalies across part of the nation seems reasonably likely at this point, though there are some uncertainities concerning the location of those cool anomalies. Odds may favor somewhere in the eastern half of the U.S., possibly the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area being a little more likely than other locations. Nevertheless, I don't believe this is cast in stone and I will wait for more data before reaching firm conclusions.

I agree Don. While I'm currently leaning toward a cooler than normal summer in the Lakes, I'm definitely not confident yet. Would like to see how May progresses, especially given the persistence for warmth across the CONUS the past 6 months. I think we're probably going to see a mixture of both cool and warm anomalies this summer, with the most probable locations for warmth being West, South, and coastal East.

[bluewave]

The problem with your argument is that it relies completely on the data used to calculate the value of "normal." It suggests that our climate should have some sort of "normalcy" to it. Summers should be hot, winters should be cold, Springs should be wet. This is just based upon the past 10,000 years or so of recorded history when the Earth itself is billions of years old. To use the word "normal" is arrogant and presumptious. We have no idea what is normal. What was "normal" to the human beings who lived through the medieval warm period?

I'm looking forward to an enjoyable Spring here in Hoboken. Normal, above normal or below normal, the weather for the most part has been downright gorgeous.

If you have a problem with normals then you should probably take it up with the WMO and NOAA.

http://www.noaanews....newnormals.html

Using standards established by the World Meteorological Organization, the 30-year normals are used to compare current climate conditions with recent history. Local weathercasters traditionally use normals for comparisons with the day’s weather conditions.

In addition to their application in the weather sector, normals are used extensively by electric and gas companies for short- and long-term energy use projections. NOAA’s normals are also used by some states as the standard benchmark by which they determine the statewide rate that utilities are allowed to charge their customers.

The agricultural sector also heavily depends on normals. Farmers rely on normals to help make decisions on both crop selection and planting times. Agribusinesses use normals to monitor “departures from normal conditions” throughout the growing season and to assess past and current crop yields.

[donsutherland1]

Earlier, I stated with respect to Summer 2012:

Even with the evolving ENSO, I'm unwilling to rule out a warm summer for the nation as a whole just yet, though I don't believe Summer 2012 will reach 2011's warmth (2nd warmest on record at 1.880 standard deviations above normal)...

The possibility of cool anomalies across part of the nation seems reasonably likely at this point, though there are some uncertainities concerning the location of those cool anomalies. Odds may favor somewhere in the eastern half of the U.S., possibly the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area being a little more likely than other locations.

I took a further look. The incomplete analysis (on account for the need for additional later data) revealed:

Highest probability of cool anomalies in the East:

New England or Southeastern U.S. (not assured)

Highest probability of cool anomalies in the West:

California, possibly Oregon and parts of Washington (California seemed likely to be cool)

Highest probability of warm anomalies:

Southern Plains

FWIW, the latest CFSv2 ensemble members pointed to a somewhat warmer than normal summer in the contiguous U.S. The Southeast was shown as near normal. The Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes Area, New England, and parts of the Southern Plains had small areas of warm anomalies.

In any case, nothing is cast in stone. It's too soon for me to make a call with any kind of confidence. This is just an idea as to what some very early data seems to be suggesting might be plausible.

[Chaser25973]

If you have a problem with normals then you should probably take it up with the WMO and NOAA.

http://www.noaanews....newnormals.html

Using standards established by the World Meteorological Organization, the 30-year normals are used to compare current climate conditions with recent history. Local weathercasters traditionally use normals for comparisons with the day’s weather conditions.

In addition to their application in the weather sector, normals are used extensively by electric and gas companies for short- and long-term energy use projections. NOAA’s normals are also used by some states as the standard benchmark by which they determine the statewide rate that utilities are allowed to charge their customers.

The agricultural sector also heavily depends on normals. Farmers rely on normals to help make decisions on both crop selection and planting times. Agribusinesses use normals to monitor “departures from normal conditions” throughout the growing season and to assess past and current crop yields.

I have no qualms with what people decide to do and how they decide to run their agencies and businesses, it is completely their choice. But just because they choose to do what they're doing, doesn't make it any more or less right or wrong. There is still so much we don't know about the history of the world in the meteorological sense of things - we have only been studying this for a few decades.

[am19psu]

The problem with your argument is that it relies completely on the data used to calculate the value of "normal." It suggests that our climate should have some sort of "normalcy" to it. Summers should be hot, winters should be cold, Springs should be wet. This is just based upon the past 10,000 years or so of recorded history when the Earth itself is billions of years old. To use the word "normal" is arrogant and presumptious. We have no idea what is normal. What was "normal" to the human beings who lived through the medieval warm period?

I'm looking forward to an enjoyable Spring here in Hoboken. Normal, above normal or below normal, the weather for the most part has been downright gorgeous.

I have no qualms with what people decide to do and how they decide to run their agencies and businesses, it is completely their choice. But just because they choose to do what they're doing, doesn't make it any more or less right or wrong. There is still so much we don't know about the history of the world in the meteorological sense of things - we have only been studying this for a few decades.

I'd recommend sitting back and watching for a little while.

[NJwinter23]

Even with the evolving ENSO, I'm unwilling to rule out a warm summer for the nation as a whole just yet, though I don't believe Summer 2012 will reach 2011's warmth (2nd warmest on record at 1.880 standard deviations above normal). Since 1998, the contiguous U.S. has seen only two cool summers on a nationwide basis (2004 -1.605 sigma and 2009 -0.906 sigma). Four of the last six were very warm (1 sigma or more above the 1981-2010 normal). The trend for the 1981-2010 period was +0.41° per decade.

The possibility of cool anomalies across part of the nation seems reasonably likely at this point, though there are some uncertainities concerning the location of those cool anomalies. Odds may favor somewhere in the eastern half of the U.S., possibly the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area being a little more likely than other locations. Nevertheless, I don't believe this is cast in stone and I will wait for more data before reaching firm conclusions.

It would appear the +AMO phase has really correlated well to warmer summers of late

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, I noted that my partial analysis was yielding, among other possible analog candidates, 2002 and 2009 going forward. This partial analysis was ENSO-based. Other factors have not yet been considered.

May 2002 and May 2009 had in common an expansive and deep trough in the means across most of Canada. In 2002, it was displaced a slightly south of that which was present in 2009. May 2002 was the 5th coldest May since 1981 in the contigous U.S. and cold across almost all of Canada. May 2009 was cool across a large part of Canada (though not as cold as 2002), with very little cold in the U.S. For the contiguous U.S., May 2009 was the 10th warmest since 1981.

The differing outcomes were the result of upstream developments that preceded May. During the April 20-25, 2002 timeframe, cold air was expansive on our side of the hemisphere. Almost all of Canada was cold. The Arctic was cold. The Northern Plains were cold. In contrast, during the April 20-25, 2009 timeframe, cold air was present in western Canada, but the Arctic had largely been drained of cold air. During the April 25-30, 2002 period, the cold remained expansive. Almost all of Canada and the entire northern tier of the U.S. was cold. During the April 25-30, 2009 timeframe, little had changed. The cold remained confined to portions of western Canada while the Arctic remained relatively warm.

In short, there was a lot of cold air available to be tapped in May 2002. In 2009, much less was available. Hence, relatively similar synoptic setups yielded quite different outcomes, especially in the contiguous U.S.

A larger look at years during which May was unusually cold or unsually warm since 1981 yielded additional information that, in general, what happenes upstream in the Arctic matters. Some key points:

Coldest:

April 20-25:

• Arctic is generally cold (large areas are cold) and/or

• Large parts of Canada are cold

April 25-30:

• Arctic region is cold and/or

• Large parts of Canada are cold and/or

• The Arctic is cooling

Warmest:

April 20-25:

• Very little cold is present in the Arctic region and/or

• Large areas of cold are located on the other side of the Hemisphere

April 25-30:

• Arctic region is generally warm and/or

• Most of Canada is warm and/or

• The area of cold anomalies is retreating poleward

At present, the Arctic remains exceptionally warm and most of Canada is warm, as well. The large areas of cold anomalies can only be found on the other side of the Hemisphere. In contrast, during the same point in 2002, almost all of Canada and the eastern third of the U.S. was unseasonably cold. Should the curreent situation persist into late April, it could be an indication that even if a pattern that is normally conducive to cold unfolds for May, the outcome might not necessarily be all that cool.

[bluewave]

During the last last few summers the dominant ridges developed near where the driest spring conditions were found.

We'll have to continue to monitor the drought patterns heading through May for some clues

as to where the main positive 500 mb anomalies and heat will set up this summer. The

ECCA is currently going with this type of theme based on where the dry pattern is now.

It will be interesting to see how things actually work out this summer.

[Srain]

Don, the drought conditions across Texas continue to wane and the areas of W/S Texas that currently are in D3 to D4 should continue to improve with the persistent Western trough and deep H5 lows that we have seen since January. My hunch is our area will see near normal temps and above average rainfall as we move forward into Spring.

[donsutherland1]

Don, the drought conditions across Texas continue to wane and the areas of W/S Texas that currently are in D3 to D4 should continue to improve with the persistent Western trough and deep H5 lows that we have seen since January. My hunch is our area will see near normal temps and above average rainfall as we move forward into Spring.

Steve,

The waning drought is certainly good news. My early thinking for May leans toward a continuation of above normal precipitation. Near normal to perhaps somewhat above normal readings for parts of TX, but nothing significantly warmer than normal also appears plausible at this time. I'm still about 10-12 days away from finalizing my May thoughts, so things might yet change especially if there are more dramatic changes in ENSO than I currently expect.

[donsutherland1]

April 15-17, 2012 Heat: Quick Thoughts:

The ensemble data, operational ECMWF, and to a lesser extent, operational GFS have been signaling a period of much above normal readings for the April 15-17 timeframe. Unlike the historic "Summer in March" episode, the focus of the heat should be on the Mid-Atlantic region. There remains some question as to whether a frontal boundary will impede the warmth in New York City and possibly even Philadelphia.

The GFS ensembles forecast 850 mb temperatures peaking at 1-2 standard deviations above normal in the Mid-Atlantic. 500 mb height anomalies were forecast to reach 1.5 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Should these outcomes occur, New York City, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC would experience their warmest readings yet this year.

Below is a chart depicting high temperatures of 1, 1.5, and 2 standard deviations above the April 15-20 mean high temperature (1981-2010 period):

The 4/11/2012 12z MOS shows the following highest temperatures for the April 15-17 period:

New York City: 78°

Philadelphia: 76°

Richmond: 83°

Washington, DC: 81°

The highest temperatures to date have been:

New York City: 78°, March 22

Philadelphia: 80°, March 23

Richmond: 86°, March 15 and April 4

Washington, DC: 83°, March 23

Given the latest data, I suspect that New York City and Philadelphia will likely see the temperature peak at least in the upper 70s or perhaps lower 80s. Washington, DC should see the temperature top out at least close to or just above 85°, while Richmond peaks at least in the upper 80s and possibly reaches 90°.

4/11/12z Euro update...

The ECMWF shows 2-meter temperatures topping out at 30°C or above in Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC during the timeframe in question.

[easternsnowman]

During the last last few summers the dominant ridges developed near where the driest spring conditions were found.

We'll have to continue to monitor the drought patterns heading through May for some clues

as to where the main positive 500 mb anomalies and heat will set up this summer. The

ECCA is currently going with this type of theme based on where the dry pattern is now.

It will be interesting to see how things actually work out this summer.

Looks like they're going for 1 degree or slightly higher for the summer, which is normal for the past 10 years or so. This will seem cool compared to recent trends!

[bluewave]

Looks like they're going for 1 degree or slightly higher for the summer, which is normal for the past 10 years or so. This will seem cool compared to recent trends!

I think that the CPC uses it more for probabilities of above or below than for specific temperatures.

[donsutherland1]

Several morning thoughts:

1. The focus of the upcoming heat remains on the Mid-Atlantic (VA-MD-DC area).

2. The 4/12 6z run of the GFS has shifted to a solution that is much closer to the ECMWF solution. That means more heat in the northern Mid-Atlantic (NYC and Philly) than what the GFS had been showing. If so, a day or two with temperatures reaching 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above the normal highs in those cities has increased. For NYC, 1.5 to 2 sigma values would amount to a high temperature in the 80°-85° range. For Philadelphia, one would be talking about 82°-88°. Readings topping out at or even above 90° would be possible in Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Richmond.

A 90° April reading in Washington, DC is not a statistically rare event. In fact, using the 1981-2010 base period, a 90° or above reading has a statistical probability of occurring once every 2.6 years in Washington, DC. The temperature last reached 90° in Washington, DC in April in 2010 (April 6 and 7). That statistical probability is similar to New York's probability of reaching 85° or higher in April (about once every 2.4 years). NYC last reached 85° in April in 2010 (actually topping out at 92° on April 7).

3. In Message #15, I cited four important analogs that were showing up for April:

...years showing up in the teleconnection analogs include 1976, 1977, 2001, and 2009. All four of those years featured a period of much above normal readings later in April, with 1976, 1977, and 2009 featuring a period of exceptional warmth that saw temperatures reach 90° or above in the Northern Mid-Atlantic and even southern New England region. That fits quite well with the monthly idea (Message #1 in this thread) that had April 1976 and April 2009 as the top two analogs.

If one takes a look at the MJO, the MJO was either in Phase 4 or Phase 6 during the outbreaks of heat in those four years. This time around, the MJO is forecast to be in either Phase 1 or possibly Phase 2. Normally, those are cooler phases in much of the East. However, when ENSO is factored in, those Phases have typically resulted in somewhat warmer than normal anomalies.

4. The April 1-9 timeframe has seen almost no cold anomalies in the Arctic. The lack of cold has likely contributed to the recent pattern's having been warmer than might otherwise have been the case. Indeed, the big story so far this month, has been a continuation of unseasonable warmth for much of North America. The coming episode of heat will likely boost warm anomalies in parts of North America that have already gotten off to a warm start for April. Barring changes, that may also have forecast implications down the road.

[Snowlover76]

Don, do you think that the current drought in the northeast will continue through the summer?

[donsutherland1]

Don, do you think that the current drought in the northeast will continue through the summer?

I don't know yet. A few of the early analogs I'm looking at for May and also the coming summer hold some promise for at least some easing. Unfortunately, some dry ones are also in the mix. I'm less confident about May.

[ezweather]

One thing to note is the warm anomalies off the Middle Atlantic Coast. I remember that this could be a factor in promoting drought...

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-120408.gif

So, would not suprise me that we may be facing the risk of drought like conditions, but let's see how May goes.

[am19psu]

One thing to note is the warm anomalies off the Middle Atlantic Coast. I remember that this could be a factor in promoting drought...

That cause and effect doesn't seem obvious to me.

[It's Always Sunny]

Regardless of what people say I personally believe that you can't predict the drought potential over the summer. For all we know the pattern can change in a couple weeks and set us up for a wet May that would get us back to par.

[ezweather]

Might not be a bad idea to look back and see what the ocean water anomalies were when we had drought like conditions. I'll have to check on that and then see years of past droughts.

That cause and effect doesn't seem obvious to me.

[HeatMiser]

Despite not having the technical analog skills, I'm definitely a believer in the current drought and +SST's off the eastern coast helping the warmth at least through May. The SST anomolies Year over Year are quite drastic.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW,the latest GFS ensembles are showing 850 mb temperatures of 2.0 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal on Monday in an area covering parts of VA, MD, DC, PA, DE, and NJ.

That would be consistent with 90° or above readings in those areas. The upper bound would be consistent with mid-90s in parts of the Mid-Atlantic area, particularly Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC. It will be interesting to see if additional guidance sustains those anomalies.