powderfreak Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I think we are 10 months and counting on the average, for number of consecutive months above normal... BTV touched on this in their AFD recently...this March will make 12 straight months of positive departures at the 130-year climate spot of BTV. A persistence forecast of warmth would seem to be the way to go if you are forecasting monthly departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Can is there anyone like downtown in Beantown that can verify that it is really 56F in BOS? That stubborn 4kt bearly flag wobbling drift of Harbor puke at Logan has them down to just 10 above normal - the nerve! lol it's a good point... an extremely sharp gradient to just across the Charles but Winthrop seems to confirm: Winthrop Beach | 52.4 °F MIT (Green Bld Roof) | 73.4 °F 3 Inman Square | 75.4 °F 4 Central Square | 74.9 °F And off Weatherbug: AMS near Beacon Hill: 72.4 F Fenway Park: 76 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Can is there anyone like downtown in Beantown that can verify that it is really 56F in BOS? That stubborn 4kt bearly flag wobbling drift of Harbor puke at Logan has them down to just 10 above normal - the nerve! lol It's really just localized to the airport there, and within a mile or even less of the water. My local station at the arnold arboretum maxed out at 79.9. The station in dorchester is showing 81.5 right now off a high of 85.5/66 lol (so it probably runs a little too high most likely). Still the seabreeze didn't make it too far inland today, and looks like mostly a north shore type of deal because most of the south shore stations are into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I just noticed a branch sitting directly on a power line not too far away...i should probably call the utility company...it looks like casualty from October as its not a very fresh break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 and now that you ask, TT, Logan Airport has climbed from 56F to 62F in past hour lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 My forsythias are just about open..It looks like tomorrow they will po. Earliest in histroy by 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 78F the official high up this way. Was just outside playing football in shorts and a tanktop...still 75.4F as of our 6pm obs. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 In all seriousness... what is the chance of seeing 90 somewhere in New England on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Front moved through here about 30 min ago. Temp 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 In all seriousness... what is the chance of seeing 90 somewhere in New England on Thursday? I'm thinking doubtful at a reporting station. 78-85 widespread, 90 would be a real reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 In all seriousness... what is the chance of seeing 90 somewhere in New England on Thursday? Very low. I think 82-86F will be a common range with forecasted temps aloft...cooler near the south coast. Guidance has handled that pretty well, even though its 2m temps have been pretty awful near the coast especially. Maybe some has a spot 86-88F reading? 90F is a real stretch with 850's only near 12-15C near the Spring equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I just noticed a branch sitting directly on a power line not too far away...i should probably call the utility company...it looks like casualty from October as its not a very fresh break. Epic, Tree Snapping Torch! Call the power company immediately. Is it smoking at all or is it a smaller branch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 In all seriousness... what is the chance of seeing 90 somewhere in New England on Thursday? Gonna be very tough, even with nice sfc flow...1998 had H85 temps around +16 to get to 89F at BDL. We will be about 4C cooler Thursday...so I think its almost impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Gonna be very tough, even with nice sfc flow...1998 had H85 temps around +16 to get to 89F at BDL. We will be about 4C cooler Thursday...so I think its almost impossible. I see lots of 85 and 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Gonna be very tough, even with nice sfc flow...1998 had H85 temps around +16 to get to 89F at BDL. We will be about 4C cooler Thursday...so I think its almost impossible. Question. How was the summer of 98? Warm, cold, average? Any analog possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I see lots of 85 and 86. Yeah if 3/31/98 couldnt get to 90F, this one wont unless the models are busting by 4C+ at 850mb. For the record, the earliest 90F at each site is: BOS: 4/17/02 BDL: 4/7/91 ORH: 4/17/02 PVD: 4/17/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I see lots of 85 and 86. Actually, 850 temps are around +12C give or take. More like 84-85 perhaps. Good west flow though. Maybe someone goes to 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 We were just looking at the summer of '98 at work. Was pretty normal as far as temps go, but wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 We were just looking at the summer of '98 at work. Was pretty normal as far as temps go, but wet. Yeah I remember the wet summer...it was prety cool IIRC early on but then it got warmer in latter July/August. Not sure how good of analog it is anyway since that was an EL Nino transtioning into a fairly potent La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 We were just looking at the summer of '98 at work. Was pretty normal as far as temps go, but wet. Cool thanks! Yeah didn't feel like accessing climate records after a day of class lol and I figured you'd have some cool products or something to give a quick answer. How was the winter of 97-98 with respect to this past (present) one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Yeah I remember the wet summer...it was prety cool IIRC early on but then it got warmer in latter July/August. Not sure how good of analog it is anyway since that was an EL Nino transtioning into a fairly potent La Nina. Yeah, pretty much opposite of what we have going on. Any analogs offhand that can correlate to this past winter and La Nina phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 April has some of the most ridiculous looking splits when lookign at the records for each date. Total contrast of seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Yeah I remember the wet summer...it was prety cool IIRC early on but then it got warmer in latter July/August. Not sure how good of analog it is anyway since that was an EL Nino transtioning into a fairly potent La Nina. Yeah that's probably not a good analog. We were talking about March '98 and it turned into a weenie disco on that summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 April has some of the most ridiculous looking splits when lookign at the records for each date. Total contrast of seasons. Interesting that KCAR has it's all time high temp occur in late May. It would seem like the lack of foliage had something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 We actually didnt break any record highs today at the 4 BOX climo sites...impressive with this torch. The month we're chasing is to thank for it as all the record highs were in 1945 for 3/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Cool thanks! Yeah didn't feel like accessing climate records after a day of class lol and I figured you'd have some cool products or something to give a quick answer. How was the winter of 97-98 with respect to this past (present) one? KBOS had 25.6" of snow. It was a strong Nino that featured a lot of "mild" coastal huggers with marginal temps for snow in the far interior. I guess the storm to remember would be the interior bomb of 12/23/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I like how Jeff Masters blames this 500mb ridge to climate change and not a lack of snow cover and wave breaking over an UL in the deep SW. The most anomalous height feature anyway on the globe is overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 KBOS had 25.6" of snow. It was a strong Nino that featured a lot of "mild" coastal huggers with marginal temps for snow in the far interior. I guess the storm to remember would be the interior bomb of 12/23/97. It was a much worse winter further south...it was merely just bad for SNE. NNE it wasnt too bad. Warm but not too bad for snow...esp the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 In all seriousness... what is the chance of seeing 90 somewhere in New England on Thursday? Models usually underestimate warming in front of the fropa..and we'll see them warm again as we get closer..I would say there's a 70% chance of some spots hitting 89-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 We were just looking at the summer of '98 at work. Was pretty normal as far as temps go, but wet. I am very fearful of a pretty significant drought this summer.COming off the wettsest year on record..we're lucky in thaqt regard..but by July it could be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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