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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread, Part III


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What a difference a few miles makes...it was 50° here which is actually 2° higher than my 28 year normal high for 3/23!

I'm still waiting for my forsythia to fully bloom. I see a lot of budding activity and full blooming ones elsewhere, just not here.

Mine are in full bloom as are the azaelas. They both opened yesterday
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Sunday's return to seasonal cold rains will be sensible misery after having "suffered" a full week's worth of utopia weather. That is the down side of these type of extreme events - they have to end at some point. Just like last winter's big 40-day snow machine. It was a lovely ride, but when it ended, it was never quite enough.

There's always something left out there. In that case, I wanted to beat my own personal snowpack record of 35" on the level, set back in 1995-1996. As it were, I tied it at some point during mid to late January, right about the time the denying arrival of pattern decay started melting the snow pack as fast as it arrived. So we stagnated depth where I reside, for about a week to 10 days; then it became more bluntly obvious in early Feb that it was over - though collectively, this reality would be forcibly unrealized until perhaps circa March 10, when the erosion of seasonal change finally penetrated the lies we told our selves.

Perhaps one day we will receive a snow event of such magnificence that I would receive 36" inches from that single event, and would not thus have to be multi-event reliant in getting there. It seems over the years, over the decades (I am not old enough to say), that it is harder to maintain a snow pack, than it is to just get lucky and be force-fed one all in a single dose. There reasons for that could be many; they may be related to background GW (regardless of blame - don't go there), causing too many warm incursions that disrupt; it could be just that 40N is no guarantee on sustaining inter-event cold and/or subsequent warm events, even during the coolest regimes. Who knows. But I have lived within 600 ft of sea -level much of my life, and have yet to exceed 35". Obviously, there is some luck involved, as to whether you happened to live in the Worcester Hills, December 13, 1992; or, just northeast of Providence RI, February 8th, 1978; or just west of Detroit, MI, on January 29th, 1978. There were a lot of blizzards in 1978. But if you were not happened to be collocated in those comparatively small jack-pot zones (And yes, March 1993 stands alone as a freak show event), it does statistically prove difficult outside of the mountains to get those mega packs in place.

That was all a digression, perhaps a last feebled gasp of resentment for having endured what is in my estimation the 2nd worst winter performance in the history of my days.

Going forward, I get the impression that the first two weeks of April are going to be a bit anomalously volatile relative to normal spring vagaries. The NAO is rising after being negative, right as the PNA spikes, during an extended era of plaguing progressivity background characteristic to the overall circulation system. That leaves all kind of cut-off maelstrom potentials, as well as intra-weekly temperature variability that may be extreme. The other option is that by pure chance, deconstructive interference as small intra-continental scales could mute the potential - but that would be chancy muting of the volatility to the flow.

The MJO is also blasting into Phase 7 in the upper echelon of the wave's energetic potential. It's rankable in the top 20 event. There has to be a time lag there; unsure if it is a matter of days or weeks, but one must exist when considering wave physics is a differential process. It takes time for event to ripple down wind and "force" events to transpire.

I would say more so than mere seasonal probability/climatology alone, once we have arrived upon April 12th or so, it is really over at that point, regardless of what happens up to that ~ point in time. Beyond that, I suspect the end of April goes pretty warm.

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Well the party is over here. Just a chilly 57F wih a gusty wind. The 86F recorded yesterday is the highest temp ever recorded in Nova Scotia in March and might possibly be the highest recorded temp in March for anywhere in Canada. Need to do some more research on that but if true that is just stunning.

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Well the party is over here. Just a chilly 57F wih a gusty wind. The 86F recorded yesterday is the highest temp ever recorded in Nova Scotia in March and might possibly be the highest recorded temp in March for anywhere in Canada. Need to do some more research on that but if true that is just stunning.

I only see 27C?

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LOL, what the skin temp? That water is not that warm...even off of VA.

I was in the Atlantic yesterday here off Plymouth all I can say is if I'd gone all the way in I'd be at the doctors right now having my nuts redropped. It can't be 44/45 with the upwelling winds on the western shores. Probably warmer today though.

Probably the nicest day of the stretch here, 72 wonderful degrees with very little wind, bluebird skies.

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LOL, what the skin temp? That water is not that warm...even off of VA.

I was in the Atlantic yesterday here off Plymouth all I can say is if I'd gone all the way in I'd be at the doctors right now having my nuts redropped. It can't be 44/45 with the upwelling winds on the western shores. Probably warmer today though.

Probably the nicest day of the stretch here, 72 wonderful degrees with very little wind, bluebird skies.

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Dailies (monthlies)...

BOS +27 (+10.6)

BDL +24 (+11.4)

PVD +23 (+9.4)

ORH +30 (+11.8)

Also, as far as I can tell, these monthly departures have never been seen at any of the four climate sites through the first 23 days of any month.

Mindboggling and if there had been just a bit more a westerly component to the southerly flow this week in the ct river valley those numbers would be even higher

I wonder where will end up by month's end after the cold spell, hoping we can torch good here for one more day today

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