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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread, Part III


Typhoon Tip

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Nice comment Scott re 925 winds. Good lesson learned and will be helpful on analysis. Thank you.

Yeah and just to be clear, it's not that 925mb wind are marine tainted. It's that the air aloft is slightly cooler off to the south of SNE. The trajectory bring the airmass here which is still highly anomalous. However, surface heating can actually help warm temps at that level just a bit so that as the air moves north..it may warm a bit from the convective eddies. The warmest air is also coming around the horn and into NNE which is probably the biggest reason for AUG being 4-5 degrees warmer than here. Tormorrow, winds turn west and up to 850. I would think that we could do 3-5 better than today in BOS. Maybe a bit more.

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To all you weenies expecting snow and cold next week lol....good luck

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE PHASED SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS

HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN. SHOULD SEE RETURN WLY

FLOW AND WAA ALOFT PROMOTING A RETURN WARMING TREND FOR SFC TEMPS.

It really will not happen. It's dependent on an earlier and stronger amplification of the northern stream s/w to phase in time. There is no support for that to happen. We'll have a few days around normal, then we're back up around at least 10 above

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To all you weenies expecting snow and cold next week lol....good luck

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE PHASED SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS

HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN. SHOULD SEE RETURN WLY

FLOW AND WAA ALOFT PROMOTING A RETURN WARMING TREND FOR SFC TEMPS.

FINAL ISSUANCE: THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER OR

MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE

NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING THE 00Z

ECMWF IS NOT AS SUSPICIOUSLY DEEP AS ONCE THOUGHT. GIVEN THAT THE

CURRENT BLEND OF SOLUTIONS ALREADY INCORPORATES THIS

POSSIBILITY...FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

JAMES

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FINAL ISSUANCE: THE MAJORITY OF 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER OR

MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE

NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING THE 00Z

ECMWF IS NOT AS SUSPICIOUSLY DEEP AS ONCE THOUGHT. GIVEN THAT THE

CURRENT BLEND OF SOLUTIONS ALREADY INCORPORATES THIS

POSSIBILITY...FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

JAMES

HPC: supporting the most exciting forecast since 1942

;)

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It really will not happen. It's dependent on an earlier and stronger amplification of the northern stream s/w to phase in time. There is no support for that to happen. We'll have a few days around normal, then we're back up around at least 10 above

Violently and viciously agree..there's no cold air..there's no cut offs..It's like hoping for rain the in the desert..Weenies gon be weenies

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To all you weenies expecting snow and cold next week lol....good luck

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE PHASED SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS

HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN. SHOULD SEE RETURN WLY

FLOW AND WAA ALOFT PROMOTING A RETURN WARMING TREND FOR SFC TEMPS.

It was fun smacking the hopes of snow out of your head this winter. Now you have multiple personality disorder and are doing the same to others.

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