donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The March 1, 2012 run of the JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) ensemble system shows cold anomalies over most of the globe for the Autumn period (September through November 2012). However, IMO, this frigid idea is not likely to verify for a number of reasons: 1. It assumes weak La Niña conditions. Already, the JAMSTEC's ENSO forecast is colder than prevailing conditions. 2. It ignores observed decadal temperature trends, particularly the remarkable warming that has occurred in the Arctic region (reducing the expanse and magnitude of Arctic air masses) 3. It very likely does not take into consideration the reduced summer Arctic sea ice that has, in part, contributed to the region's warmth. Below is a chart that shows the JAMSTEC forecast for Fall 2012, the best analogs I've come up with (assuming neutral to perhaps borderline El Niño conditions but prior to adjustment for decadal temperature changes) and decadal temperature changes for September-November: Interestingly enough, the CFSv2 ensemble situation briefly showed such an outcome for April in its early forecasts. That outcome ignored factors such as the observed decadal temperature trend. Since then, the CFSv2 has aggressively reversed itself to the point where it closely matches the observed decadal temperature changes. Below is a chart that shows the CFSv2 forecast for April 2012 from March 1, the latest forecast from March 19, and the observed decadal temperature changes. There is a possibility that the latest CFSv2 is somewhat overdone with regard to the warmth, perhaps because it is overcompensating for the fading La Niña. However, the morale of the story is to wait until the event draws closer before embracing possible solutions that appear dramatically out of sync with observed decadal temperature changes. The probability of such a deviation from normal is likely low. Hence, the JAMSTEC Fall 2012 forecast is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Already looking towards fall and next winter eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Persistence_Uncancel Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Don, This was JAMSTEC's outlook for this past winter (DJF) from Oct 1. Looks like they did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Already looking towards fall and next winter eh? Not really. I saw the JAMSTEC and wanted to take a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Don, This was JAMSTEC's outlook for this past winter (DJF) from Oct 1. Looks like they did very well. From October, it didn't do too badly last winter. The cold was overdone, though e.g., a much larger portion of Canada saw warm anomalies than what JAMSTEC's ensembles forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 JB seems to like the JAMSTEC's forecast for this summer in the great lakes, which is calling for a cooler than normal summer in the areas that are experiencing the heatwave right now. He's also intrigued by its forecast for the Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 JB seems to like the JAMSTEC's forecast for this summer in the great lakes, which is calling for a cooler than normal summer in the areas that are experiencing the heatwave right now. He's also intrigued by its forecast for the Fall. Is JB thinking we'll have another La Niña winter or is he thinking the JAMSTEC forecast supports the possibility of a cold winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 From October, it didn't do too badly last winter. The cold was overdone, though e.g., a much larger portion of Canada saw warm anomalies than what JAMSTEC's ensembles forecast. Yes but many did not foresee the extent of the warm anomalies this Winter which were quite expansive occupying most of North America south of the Northern Terrorties and East/SE of Alaska. I do think the cold is quite overdone globally by the JAMSTEC but anything is possible but for now, lets just leave it as a possible solution. The ENSO anomaly will be quite interesting for next Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Is JB thinking we'll have another La Niña winter or is he thinking the JAMSTEC forecast supports the possibility of a cold winter? He is expecting an El Nino winter, and he has been drumming up this winter as being historically cold for a few years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 From October, it didn't do too badly last winter. The cold was overdone, though e.g., a much larger portion of Canada saw warm anomalies than what JAMSTEC's ensembles forecast. Looks like it did a pretty good job on the pattern. Underdone, to be sure, on the extent of the warmth. If JAMSTEC is making such a strange forecast for next fall, then it has to be picking up something. Maybe a QBO reversal from this past winter? Haven't been paying much attention to the indexes of late due to this winter's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The March 1, 2012 run of the JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) ensemble system shows cold anomalies over most of the globe for the Autumn period (September through November 2012). However, IMO, this frigid idea is not likely to verify for a number of reasons: 1. It assumes weak La Niña conditions. Already, the JAMSTEC's ENSO forecast is colder than prevailing conditions. 2. It ignores observed decadal temperature trends, particularly the remarkable warming that has occurred in the Arctic region (reducing the expanse and magnitude of Arctic air masses) 3. It very likely does not take into consideration the reduced summer Arctic sea ice that has, in part, contributed to the region's warmth. Below is a chart that shows the JAMSTEC forecast for Fall 2012, the best analogs I've come up with (assuming neutral to perhaps borderline El Niño conditions but prior to adjustment for decadal temperature changes) and decadal temperature changes for September-November: Interestingly enough, the CFSv2 ensemble situation briefly showed such an outcome for April in its early forecasts. That outcome ignored factors such as the observed decadal temperature trend. Since then, the CFSv2 has aggressively reversed itself to the point where it closely matches the observed decadal temperature changes. Below is a chart that shows the CFSv2 forecast for April 2012 from March 1, the latest forecast from March 19, and the observed decadal temperature changes. There is a possibility that the latest CFSv2 is somewhat overdone with regard to the warmth, perhaps because it is overcompensating for the fading La Niña. However, the morale of the story is to wait until the event draws closer before embracing possible solutions that appear dramatically out of sync with observed decadal temperature changes. The probability of such a deviation from normal is likely low. Hence, the JAMSTEC Fall 2012 forecast is suspect. Why now? Nothing said about it's warm calls in 09-10 and 10-11 ( which it busted badly with ) but now all the sudden it goes the other way and we have this? Oh it is off it's rocker and is not considering this or that. You see how what you said about the model looks? Maybe it is me but i think you ( along with a few others ) are *now* starting to get a bit carried away with the GW stuff Don. This problem seems to have to do with this crazy warmth we have had over the past number of months. Too suggest ( below normal seasons wont happen) what you are is really pushing it especially considering summer 2009, winter 09-10 and 10-11.. I can go on as well. Mainly i am questioning your reasoning and comments about the model. NOT saying you will be right or wrong. Just seems odd that the moment the model goes below normal we start hearing this. FYI.. Going back to 1950 ( will go back further if i get the chance ) most Fall's following a nina winter that switched to Nino ended up below to much below normal. The exceptions are a couple of years in which we we went from Nina to neutral ( 2001 most recently ) and only one case of Nina to nino and thus see 2009 that went above normal and another close to normal and thus see 1965 and both were mod/strong Nino's per the update they just did to the tri monthly numbers.. 2006,1976, 1972, 1957, 1951 all went below normal for fall for a good portion of the country. 1996 was Nina to neutral that went the below normal route. I'll also say i think you are really pushing it with the summer melt off. But this is a subject for the GW forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Why now? Nothing said about it's warm calls in 09-10 and 10-11 ( which it busted badly with ) but now all the sudden it goes the other way and we have this? Oh it is off it's rocker and is not considering this or that. You see how what you said about the model looks? Maybe it is me but i think you ( along with a few others ) are *now* starting to get a bit carried away with the GW stuff Don. This problem seems to have to do with this crazy warmth we have had over the past number of months. Too suggest ( below normal seasons wont happen) what you are is really pushing it especially considering summer 2009, winter 09-10 and 10-11.. I can go on as well. Mainly i am questioning your reasoning and comments about the model. NOT saying you will be right or wrong. Just seems odd that the moment the model goes below normal we start hearing this. FYI.. Going back to 1950 ( will go back further if i get the chance ) most Fall's following a nina winter that switched to Nino ended up below to much below normal. The exceptions are a couple of years in which we we went from Nina to neutral ( 2001 most recently ) and only one case of Nina to nino and thus see 2009 that went above normal and another close to normal and thus see 1965 and both were mod/strong Nino's per the update they just did to the tri monthly numbers.. 2006,1976, 1972, 1957, 1951 all went below normal for fall for a good portion of the country. 1996 was Nina to neutral that went the below normal route. I'll also say i think you are really pushing it with the summer melt off. But this is a subject for the GW forum. Every seasons different. We had much below normal temps last winter into spring, then well above normal in the summer and this past winter. See no reason why Fall cant be very cold, esp considering past years of a Nina to Nino transition. I just hope this one warm winter doesnt cloud judgment with next winters forecasts (not that they did so well this winter ). Winters here are most definitely colder now than they were in the 1930s-1950s, and snowier than theyve ever been...so I will not let one trainwreck of a winter get me down. Though I certainly wont be caught dead taking any models seasonal forecast as gospel either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Every seasons different. We had much below normal temps last winter into spring, then well above normal in the summer and this past winter. See no reason why Fall cant be very cold, esp considering past years of a Nina to Nino transition. I just hope this one warm winter doesnt cloud judgment with next winters forecasts (not that they did so well this winter ). Winters here are most definitely colder now than they were in the 1930s-1950s, and snowier than theyve ever been...so I will not let one trainwreck of a winter get me down. Though I certainly wont be caught dead taking any models seasonal forecast as gospel either Have hunch it will affect next winters call by a few at the very least. Remember 05-06 and thus see 06-07 and 07-08 etc.. Warmest winter ever stuff, snowless etc.. Heck it is already affecting peoples calls on the spring and summer.. Get a cold spell and it flips to that.. No winning.. This is the ONLY thing i don't enjoy with extremes. Too many get carried away with them. Does seasonal forecasting no favors at all. No denying though Don has done a superb job with the winter on up to this point. He contributes a ton as well and always has. I am just a bit at a loss with this thread/subject matter is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Why now? Nothing said about it's warm calls in 09-10 and 10-11. This raises another factor about the JAMSTEC ensemble system: It likely cannot adequately forecast blocking (or lack thereof). The extreme AO- regimes for the 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters was very likely the dominant factor behind how those winters turned out. Mainly i am questioning your reasoning and comments about the model. NOT saying you will be right or wrong. Just seems odd that the moment the model goes below normal we start hearing this. Forecasting regional cold anomalies is one thing. Going almost completely cold on a global basis is suspect, especially as the system's ENSO forecast is already going off track. Its February forecast had a lot (but less) cold and an El Niño. Its January forecast had almost as much, but it also had a strong blocking signal and rising ENSO SSTAs. The March run is cold, but with no blocking signal and another La Niña. FYI.. Going back to 1950 ( will go back further if i get the chance ) most Fall's following a nina winter that switched to Nino ended up below to much below normal. The problem here is that the JAMSTEC assumes continued La Niña conditions in its ENSO forecasts through the fall and winter. Were it forecasting a shift to El Niño, the kind of cold outcome it depicts would be more plausible. A key constraint would concern Arctic temperatures. The 2006 case you mention was much warmer in the autumn than what JAMSTEC is showing. all went below normal for fall for a good portion of the country. 1996 was Nina to neutral that went the below normal route. I was referring to the global idea for autumn, not the winter idea for North America or the U.S. Right now, I have no thoughts on the next winter. My only point is that JAMSTEC's fall outlook appears to be suspect. I'll also say i think you are really pushing it with the summer melt off. But this is a subject for the GW forum. I'm not getting into the discussion about the reason for such a situation, only noting that such a situation has prevailed in recent years and it does have an impact on the Arctic temperatures. In turn, temperatures in the Arctic have some impact downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 I am just a bit at a loss with this thread/subject matter is all. The JAMSTEC ensemble system went to an extreme. I thought it was worth a comment. My thoughts about that system's extreme idea's probably being unlikely to verify does not mean that I'm thinking another warm autumn and/or winter lies ahead. My comment was limited strictly to the JAMSTEC solution for the September-November timeframe and should not be seen as offering any thoughts beyond that timeframe. At this point in time, I don't know what kind of winter lies ahead. Until I have a firmer handle on ENSO and a reasonable idea concerning blocking potential, it's difficult for me to have any confidence in such long-range outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Why now? Nothing said about it's warm calls in 09-10 and 10-11 ( which it busted badly with ) but now all the sudden it goes the other way and we have this? Oh it is off it's rocker and is not considering this or that. You see how what you said about the model looks? Maybe it is me but i think you ( along with a few others ) are *now* starting to get a bit carried away with the GW stuff Don. This problem seems to have to do with this crazy warmth we have had over the past number of months. Too suggest ( below normal seasons wont happen) what you are is really pushing it especially considering summer 2009, winter 09-10 and 10-11.. I can go on as well. Mainly i am questioning your reasoning and comments about the model. NOT saying you will be right or wrong. Just seems odd that the moment the model goes below normal we start hearing this. FYI.. Going back to 1950 ( will go back further if i get the chance ) most Fall's following a nina winter that switched to Nino ended up below to much below normal. The exceptions are a couple of years in which we we went from Nina to neutral ( 2001 most recently ) and only one case of Nina to nino and thus see 2009 that went above normal and another close to normal and thus see 1965 and both were mod/strong Nino's per the update they just did to the tri monthly numbers.. 2006,1976, 1972, 1957, 1951 all went below normal for fall for a good portion of the country. 1996 was Nina to neutral that went the below normal route. I'll also say i think you are really pushing it with the summer melt off. But this is a subject for the GW forum. Where did Don say the bolded? He said that he didn't expect this model's forecast to verify. And frankly, if you've been paying attention at all the past (at least) 10 years, years that are globally below average are few and far between... and increasingly so. Regionally we know that both extremes occur but globally ... up and up we go. It isn't a coincidence that high records are being broken at twice the rate as cold ones around the world... And in the words of Jennifer Francis, a researcher here at Rutgers, "the question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation... it's how can it not?" (http://www.countercurrents.org/francis060312.htm). I've yet to hear a good answer to that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Have hunch it will affect next winters call by a few at the very least. Remember 05-06 and thus see 06-07 and 07-08 etc.. Warmest winter ever stuff, snowless etc.. Heck it is already affecting peoples calls on the spring and summer.. Get a cold spell and it flips to that.. No winning.. This is the ONLY thing i don't enjoy with extremes. Too many get carried away with them. Does seasonal forecasting no favors at all. No denying though Don has done a superb job with the winter on up to this point. He contributes a ton as well and always has. I am just a bit at a loss with this thread/subject matter is all. well let's look at the flip side, on more of a short term microscale. back in Dec and Jan when everyone was scratching their collective heads about the surprisingly uneventful and mild start to winter, except for Roger Smith, the collective thought, (including Roger Smith), was that Feb and March would most assuredly be flipping and rocking. Afterall, as most everyone incorrectly predicted, there was no way that pattern could go on for another 2 or 3 months. I think you're being a little harsh on Don here. You can say what you want, assign motives to his forecasts or whatever, but he's been pretty damn good this winter season. One of the few that never pulled a trigger on the kind of pattern change that would result to colder and snowier conditions. just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 He is expecting an El Nino winter, and he has been drumming up this winter as being historically cold for a few years now. and if my dog could talk and string together the words historic, cold, and winter, he would have just as much credibility as JB. seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2012 Author Share Posted July 20, 2012 What a difference a few months makes. The March 2012 JAMSTEC forecast for autumn, which I felt was suspect: The July 2012 JAMSTEC forecast for autumn: The latter forecast implies strong blocking. From that standpoint, it's far more plausible than the anomalous scenario of an almost overwhelmingly cold world that is at odds with observed temperature trends and not likely to verify under any realistic synoptic set up at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 What a difference a few months makes. The March 2012 JAMSTEC forecast for autumn, which I felt was suspect: The July 2012 JAMSTEC forecast for autumn: The latter forecast implies strong blocking. From that standpoint, it's far more plausible than the anomalous scenario of an almost overwhelmingly cold world that is at odds with observed temperature trends and not likely to verify under any realistic synoptic set up at this point in time. Thanks for posting Don...It also looks very El Nino-like as far as the North American pattern goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 What a difference a few months makes. The March 2012 JAMSTEC forecast for autumn, which I felt was suspect: The July 2012 JAMSTEC forecast for autumn: The latter forecast implies strong blocking. From that standpoint, it's far more plausible than the anomalous scenario of an almost overwhelmingly cold world that is at odds with observed temperature trends and not likely to verify under any realistic synoptic set up at this point in time. Per JB (Twitter) hot off the presses: "Jamstec backing my idea on fast start to much colder winter season. MODEL LOOKS OPPOSITE OF LAST YEAR over N Amer". Despite the fact that the model looks warmer globally for this fall vs. how it looked earlier, it would appear to me that JB is accurate and also showing some insight with regard to the U.S. with these two statements. Anyone disagree? Edit: Based on history, if we can get a WEAK El Nino (which is more likely than a moderate Nino or neutral positive imho) with good blocking, we can have quite a cold eastern US winter. So, that part is quite plausible imo. Weak El Nino's as a whole have seen the coldest E US winters over the last 130 years of any one ENSO phase. However, I wouldn't think it would be cold in the western US and that much of Canada based on the same history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Per JB (Twitter) hot off the presses: "Jamstec backing my idea on fast start to much colder winter season. MODEL LOOKS OPPOSITE OF LAST YEAR over N Amer". Despite the fact that the model looks warmer globally for this fall vs. how it looked earlier, it would appear to me that JB is accurate and also showing some insight with regard to the U.S. with these two statements. Anyone disagree? It depends how fast we get into Nino. It's possible September could still be mild across a good chunk of the CONUS. Usually though, the East cools down in the Fall as Nino develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Frankly, I do not see how the whole US could be colder than normal from September through November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Frankly, I do not see how the whole US could be colder than normal from September through November. Coastal, We're probably on similar wavelengths. I don't know whether or not you saw my edit to my prior post. I added this: "Based on history, if we can get a WEAK El Nino (which is more likely than a moderate Nino or neutral positive imho) with good blocking, we can have quite a cold eastern US winter. So, that part is quite plausible imo. Weak El Nino's as a whole have seen the coldest E US winters over the last 130 years of any one ENSO phase. However, I wouldn't think it would be cold in the western US and that much of Canada based on the same history." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 It would be nice to have a cold Fall for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Check out how cool the model was for this summer. It tried to play catch up but it was still too cool even by May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 It would be nice to have a cold Fall for a change. We've had cool Septembers recently but the overall tendency the past 10-15 years has been warm Sep/Nov, and cooler Oct. Maybe this will be the first year in awhile to buck the trend, though I'm highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Check out how cool the model was for this summer. It tried to play catch up but it was still too cool even by May. Do you or does anyone else know whether or not this model has an overall (global) sig. cold bias? I'm getting a bit suspicious about that possibility as I see more of these globally cold maps being posted here that haven't verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Do you or does anyone else know whether or not this model has an overall (global) sig. cold bias? I'm getting a bit suspicious about that possibility as I see more of these globally cold maps being posted here that haven't verified. Weird base period. Not sure if that plays in. Base period for estimation of anomalies is 1983-2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Do you or does anyone else know whether or not this model has an overall (global) sig. cold bias? I'm getting a bit suspicious about that possibility as I see more of these globally cold maps being posted here that haven't verified. It seems to get warmer as it gets closer to the actual forecast time from a few examples that I have seen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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