Hoosier Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 After a brief cooldown to something less absurdly above average, it looks like excessive warmth could return early next week. Given where we stand right now and where it looks like we're going toward the end of the month, my prediction is that LAF finishes March at +17.5, giving new meaning to the phrase well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 DTW. 15.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Just imagine if the new climate normals didn't go into effect until this summer. We could have tacked on another degree or two to these departures. I made a little excel spreadsheet to model the potential departures. If this heat spell breaks at the end of the week and the rest of the month has more typical highs around 50 and lows near 40, then the month will still end up +12. I will play it conservative and go with +13 at CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Just imagine if the new climate normals didn't go into effect until this summer. We could have tacked on another degree or two to these departures. I made a little excel spreadsheet to model the potential departures. If this heat spell breaks at the end of the week and the rest of the month has more typical highs around 50 and lows near 40, then the month will still end up +12. I will play it conservative and go with +13 at CLE. The problem is that it is looking like the heat will return next week after a brief cooldown to only above normal temps instead of outrageously above normal. I'll go with +16.8 for FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The problem is that it is looking like the heat will return next week after a brief cooldown to only above normal temps instead of outrageously above normal. I'll go with +16.8 for FWA. Yeah. Playing around with the numbers here, it's quite possible that the temperature anomaly will be so high, that not only will it blow the warmest March on record out of the water, but even give some of the top 5 warmest APRILS a run for their money. I'm sure it's a similar situation across most of the Midwest. It will be interesting to see how this March compares to some of the record warm Aprils at certain sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 LAF sitting at +17 through yesterday. The early week warmup is starting to look like it could be somewhat muted. If that occurs, my prediction may end up being a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 LAF sitting at +17 through yesterday. The early week warmup is starting to look like it could be somewhat muted. If that occurs, my prediction may end up being a bit high. You are at +17 and predicted 17.5. It hit 80 today and the next six days still look to be at least 10 degrees above normal. If I were you, I'd be worried about busting low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 You are at +17 and predicted 17.5. It hit 80 today and the next six days still look to be at least 10 degrees above normal. If I were you, I'd be worried about busting low. Strange to say it but any day that averages 10-15F above average will actually bring the departure down if only by a small amount each time. After today we should be around +17.5 give or take a tenth. I don't think I will bust horribly low but could see me being off by several tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Strange to say it but any day that averages 10-15F above average will actually bring the departure down if only by a small amount each time. After today we should be around +17.5 give or take a tenth. I don't think I will bust horribly low but could see me being off by several tenths. Yes, you are right. Without at least +17 departures, your monthly will go down. At least today may help bump you up a little. I am really screwed unless the next ridge overproduces. I predicted +16.8 and FWA is only sitting at +15.3. EDIT: ONLY +15.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 +13 for LSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Here's the million dollar question. What is it going to take in order to get this 5 month old pattern to end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Here's the million dollar question. What is it going to take in order to get this 5 month old pattern to end? El Nino. I am being semi-facetious, although Nina is a big part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 El Nino. I am being semi-facetious, although Nina is a big part of it. Has it developed yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Here's the million dollar question. What is it going to take in order to get this 5 month old pattern to end? A sudden reversal of the gulf stream would probably nip this in the butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 La Nina weakened in February and is predicted to transition to neutral by the end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Here's the million dollar question. What is it going to take in order to get this 5 month old pattern to end? I would say a complete end of La Nina. +14° here based off UGN's average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 I would say a complete end of La Nina. +14° here based off UGN's average. I thought la Nina was supposed to bring us cooler then normal weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 I thought la Nina was supposed to bring us cooler then normal weather? Yeah it usually does. Given the teleconnections and the stubborn MJO, the La Nina signal was muted over North America. Nothing about this winter over the continent was typical for a La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Yeah it usually does. Given the teleconnections and the stubborn MJO, the La Nina signal was muted over North America. Nothing about this winter over the continent was typical for a La Nina pattern. This has been the worst winter of my life in lower Michigan and the worst in my winter playground northern Michigan. So anything different then this is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 +14.4 would be my guess for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 I thought la Nina was supposed to bring us cooler then normal weather? Depends on a few things which it seems were overlooked by many this past winter when the outlooks flew out last fall. I kinda overlooked it myself but never really issued a outlook either as i did not have the desire nor the time to put the effort i like to in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 +16 in Toledo. We're currently running +18 which is incredible given the cool temps at the beginning of the month. Heck we got 5" on the 4th and 5th of snow, our biggest snowstorm of the year basically 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 CMH- + 17.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 Only able to add on a tenth yesterday as storms caused a big evening drop. +17.7 and probably a slow descent from here with maybe some brief interruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I stated a +14 here, but I think it will closer to +15. Due to higher nighttime lows the surplus is slowing up the decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 It is going to be very high /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I bust. FWA +16.3 with nowhere to go but down the rest of the week. Oh, well, I got to within 0.5 before the bottom fell out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 LAF still hanging in at 17.6 but that will be going down after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Probably be down to +17 or +17.1 after today's small positive departure. Running the numbers for the next 5 days, it's possible we could drop to around +16 by month's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Today's cold took a 0.5° bite off the month's departure! Still at +16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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