SACRUS Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Overall things moving accordingly albeit less rain than what was prog'ed for last week. Some 90s scattered around last week and this weekend but overall 1 - 3 above normal 7/9 - 7/15. Stronger surge of heat today through the wed (7/18) with thursday a wild card for 90 readings, before we fall back to normal and perhaps slightly below Fri/Sat (7/19 - 7/20) as high pressure off shore NE brings a NE/ENE flow. Guidance seems to warm things back up on/around 7/23 with this period potentially seeing the next surge of heat. A coupe of things to watch for end of week cool shot (7/19 - 7/21) 1. Newark/LGA not below 70 since 6/27 2. All the major reporting (TTN, LGA EWR, NYC, JFK, TEB) stations have not been below normal dailies since 6/27. With only limited cool and a continued above normal outlook (overall) the month is looing to finish greater than +3 for many sites, making it the 3rd straight hot July and perhaps setting us up for the hat trick for warm summers. Thu/Fri much cooler than I expected and montly departures have dropped to 3 or 4 above normal. Today we saw a return of above normal temps and some 90 degree readings. We should see widespread 90 degree readings for all stations tomorrow with some of the warmer spots perhaps getting into the mid 90s. Back and forth pattern with a trough tending to dig into the northeast making any surge of heat brief and brining multiple chances for storms. Next shot at 90 comes Thu with Fri scorching if we get enough sun. Longer range looking more humid into the start of Aug. Not prolonhged (heat wave) liklely through Aug 2nd with overall above normal temps as a whole 7/23 - 8/2. . I wouldnt be surprised to see ridging build east on/around the 5th perhaps setting the stage for some early August heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 now thats a post I like to hear...looks like typical summertime weather and basically normal or above until further notice....how is the weekend looking will we still have pesky storm chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Going into August here is a look how the analogs we've been tracking this summer progressed into August. Will the warmer years (2002, 2006, 1953) continue to lead the pack? 2006: Featured early month record heat with multiple 100 degree readings. The heat eased up by the second week of August with only scattered 90 degree readings after the 8th. As a whole the month finished between 1 and 2 above normal for the area. At EWR there were 9 90(+) days. The month remained drier than normal. 2002: Was very hot through the 20th. A streak of 10 straight 90 + days at EWR between the 10th and 19th as well as 14 of 19 days above 90. The month turned drastically cooler the last 10 days leading up to a wet and cool September. The month still finished +2 in the area. due to the torch the first 3 weeks. 1953: August opened generally near normal through the first 3 1/2 weeks. Then came a record late season heat wave between Aug 24th and Sept 5th. Interestingly the heat this year has somewhat mimicked 1953 including the records in late June, early/mid July. Longer range guidance is indicating that August could start off humid and potentially wet - similar to 1953.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm back from Florida where it was cooler because of a death in my wifes family...Since June 29th NYC is averaging 81.2 not counting today...It probably will be the third straight July that averaged over 80.0...A new record...The old record was one before this streak started... at this time July is averaging around 79.5...It might not average 80.0 or above now...We need another heat wave to close the month for that to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 at this time July is averaging around 79.5...It might not average 80.0 or above now...We need another heat wave to close the month for that to happen... NYC will need some strong positives thu-fri and then see how things average sat - tue. Those strong negatives last thu - sat might have killed it. Today was a +6, tomorrow likely a 0 with thu at least a +5 or better. Fri depends on clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Things are moving along generally as expected with a more humid/wet pattern to end July and start August. Limited 90 degree days and some cooler than avg days by way of rain and clouds ultimately leading to a near normal pattern 7/29 - Aug 5th. We shuold see the next chance of 90 degree readings reach the warmer spots as early as Thu, with Friday - Sun seeing more widespread 90s. I dont think we'll get 3 in a row for another heat wave in most places with clouds and storms still likelt but I wouldnt rule it out, Sunday looking like the hottest day ahead of the front. Beyond there we're back to a humid/warm flow the beginning of next week (8/6). Guidance hinting that ridging will build east and spikes of the furnace out west and into the plains will push east on/around 8/9. Also looming is the potential that the 1953 analog of a hot finish to the month. As i am writing thism the 12z ECM shows the ridge expanding from the Rockies into the Plains then to the east coast days 7 - 10 (8/6 - 8/9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 12z ecm conintues to advertise a hot pattern next week as the ridge builds east in a similar progression of late June with the furnace like blast from the mid west heading east by tue 8/7. Prior to that the Western Atlantic ridge will build west and bring a very warm end of the week and weekend. its looking more likley August will start very warm and could grow hotter for a period next week. GFS hinting at ridging into the east next week, ensembles a bit of a mix. it'll be interesting to see how things progress but the 2002 analog may be leading the pack to open August... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 interesting...I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 12z ecm conintues to advertise a hot pattern next week as the ridge builds east in a similar progression of late June with the furnace like blast from the mid west heading east by tue 8/7. Prior to that the Western Atlantic ridge will build west and bring a very warm end of the week and weekend. its looking more likley August will start very warm and could grow hotter for a period next week. GFS hinting at ridging into the east next week, ensembles a bit of a mix. it'll be interesting to see how things progress but the 2002 analog may be leading the pack to open August... one of my analogs for this summer was 1957...The heat peaked on 7/22 that year at 102 degrees...After that there were five or six more 90+ days..It looks like this Ausust will be warmer than 1957 but by how much?...August 57 was below average...it had a few 90+ days in September...My guess is another 5-10 90+ days in the Park and more like ten or more for Newark...I passed the airport yesterday and saw the weather AOS from the car...Usually I drive and can't see the surounding areas...It was pretty close to the turnpike...between the turnpike and tarmac and the cars and planes it has to effect that obs sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 one of my analogs for this summer was 1957...The heat peaked on 7/22 that year at 102 degrees...After that there were five or six more 90+ days..It looks like this Ausust will be warmer than 1957 but by how much?...August 57 was below average...it had a few 90+ days in September...My guess is another 5-10 90+ days in the Park and more like ten or more for Newark...I passed the airport yeaterday and saw the weather AOS from the car...Usually I drive and can't see the surounding areas...It was pretty close to the turnpike...between the turnpike and tarmac and the cars and planes it has to effect that obs sight... I am leaning with the analog trio of 2002, 2006 and 1953 to kind of track the heat spikes. My earlier post last week assuming that the ridge would build east with associated heat spike in the 8/5 - 8/10 timeframe was based on trending of the recent heat spikes from late June into July. Seems we trended stronger and longer though about the 8th then some moderation with another spike around thw 16th, then moderation, etc... Its interesting seeing guidance hinting at this now for the 6th. If it follows suit I wouldnt doubt it lingers into mid august before moderation with the next spike perhaps coming in the final week of august into early sept (ala 1953).... I always find my temps closer to ewr than the park. I think much of ne-nj and into middlesex more urban reas do as well. If you compare with New Brusnwick, TEB, LDJ and some others - EWR is mostly within a degree while the park is typically 2 - 4 cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I am leaning with the analog trio of 2002, 2006 and 1953 to kind of track the heat spikes. My earlier post last week assuming that the ridge would build east with associated heat spike in the 8/5 - 8/10 timeframe was based on trending of the recent heat spikes from late June into July. Seems we trended stronger and longer though about the 8th then some moderation with another spike around thw 16th, then moderation, etc... Its interesting seeing guidance hinting at this now for the 6th. If it follows suit I wouldnt doubt it lingers into mid august before moderation with the next spike perhaps coming in the final week of august into early sept (ala 1953).... I always find my temps closer to ewr than the park. I think much of ne-nj and into middlesex more urban reas do as well. If you compare with New Brusnwick, TEB, LDJ and some others - EWR is mostly within a degree while the park is typically 2 - 4 cooler. Yeah you guys tend to heat up quite nicely from Middlesex NE through Bergen county. Agree that we should be looking at a warmer than normal pattern continuing, though I'm doubtful of any heat spike on par with late June/early July. If we can get the mid level ridge to balloon NE from the Plains it'll likely only last a day or two before being sliced off in the NWLY flow aloft. Generally I think we're talking 85-90 humid/convective pattern with the occasional string of low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Yeah you guys tend to heat up quite nicely from Middlesex NE through Bergen county. Agree that we should be looking at a warmer than normal pattern continuing, though I'm doubtful of any heat spike on par with late June/early July. If we can get the mid level ridge to balloon NE from the Plains it'll likely only last a day or two before being sliced off in the NWLY flow aloft. Generally I think we're talking 85-90 humid/convective pattern with the occasional string of low 90s. Yeah i should have added a footnote that on the extreme heat days such as jul 18th we were 101 for the high which was cooler than newark. Iso, I tend to agree about overall low 90s heat but the spikes have a tendency to over perform and for 2 days we could see some extreme heat if we can stay clear - that furance down there keeps bulding... I still think we may not have seen our hottest day yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Yeah i should have added a footnote that on the extreme heat days such as jul 18th we were 101 for the high which was cooler than newark. Iso, I tend to agree about overall low 90s heat but the spikes have a tendency to over perform and for 2 days we could see some extreme heat if we can stay clear - that furance down there keeps bulding... I still think we may not have seen our hottest day yet. You may be right; there's definitely plenty of furnace to our SW, that's for sure. My concern is exactly as you said -- can we completely clear out for a couple days to reach those extreme numbers. Also I think the 95+ readings will be more difficult to attain w/ the recent increased wetness. I can definitely see a 93-95 degree day thrown in there but we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 July departures form the center of the furnace Indianapolis: +8.6 (no below normal days) Des Moines: +8.1 (no blow normal days) St Louis: +8.0 (no below normal days) Wichita: +7.2 (no below normal days) Chicago: +7.0 (no below normal days) Kansas City: +6.8 (no below normal days) Omaha: +6.4 (2 below normal days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 August and September max temperatures for developing el nino years... year...Aug...Sept... 1953...100...102... 1957.....95.....91... 1965.....91.....92... 1968.....94.....87... 1972.....94.....92... 1976.....94.....89... 1982.....89.....87... 1986.....89.....87... 1991.....94.....93... 1994.....91.....88... 1997.....93.....83... 2002.....98.....91... 2006.....97.....83... 2009.....92.....84... 1953 saw 100 degrees late Ausust and early September...2002 and 2006 have the second and third warmest August temperature...1957 the 4th...I bet we get close to 95 again in August and 90 in September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Things are moving along generally as expected with a more humid/wet pattern to end July and start August. Limited 90 degree days and some cooler than avg days by way of rain and clouds ultimately leading to a near normal pattern 7/29 - Aug 5th. We shuold see the next chance of 90 degree readings reach the warmer spots as early as Thu, with Friday - Sun seeing more widespread 90s. I dont think we'll get 3 in a row for another heat wave in most places with clouds and storms still likelt but I wouldnt rule it out, Sunday looking like the hottest day ahead of the front. Beyond there we're back to a humid/warm flow the beginning of next week (8/6). Guidance hinting that ridging will build east and spikes of the furnace out west and into the plains will push east on/around 8/9. Also looming is the potential that the 1953 analog of a hot finish to the month. As i am writing thism the 12z ECM shows the ridge expanding from the Rockies into the Plains then to the east coast days 7 - 10 (8/6 - 8/9). The timing of the heat worked well this past week with a progression of heat starting last thursday in the warmer spots and peaking on sunday ahead of the front. For many this did reach 3 or 4 90 (+) in a row, pther sites had at least 2. Interestingly guidance quickly moved away from the strong ridging and heat it had showed for this coming week and it looks like we will continue with an overall warm/humid pattern with increased rain chances once past tuesday. The next chance of 90s will arrive tue - fri with thu or fri offering the best potential for widespread 90s if we can stay sunny. We should see more unstable conditions by the weekend as an ULL and associated frontal boundry moves slowly from the GL north into New England. Pending on how the front tracks we shoud see a return of a much more humid flow and enhanced rain chances which will keep mins high and maxes lower. Behind this trough, the week of 8/13 should open near normal and gradually see temps warm as the western atlantic ridge builds west raising heights and humidity along the east coast on/around 8/15 into the longer range. We'll also have to see if the tropics impact the pattern. Summary: 8/6 - 8/16: overall warmer than normal with increased rain/storm chances. Potential 90 degree readings 8/7 - 8/10 - above normal temps. Near or below normal 8/11 - 8/12 by way of rain. 8/13 - 8/15 - normal to above. More heat higher humidity return 8/16 as trough looks to shift west and WAR and Bermuda high looks to expand...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 and as we go forward the average highs start dropping so even if we do not see mid 90s returning, even upper 80s will be a good 5-7 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 and as we go forward the average highs start dropping so even if we do not see mid 90s returning, even upper 80s will be a good 5-7 degrees above normal. Losing a degree on the average high on August 10 does not strike me as enough to confine us to the upper 80's just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 1953 saw 100 degrees late Ausust and early September...2002 and 2006 have the second and third warmest August temperature...1957 the 4th...I bet we get close to 95 again in August and 90 in September... I'm hearing alot about 1953. 1953 was heading into what started as a cold neutral, and it's pattern in our area was spookily like developing Niña years 1973 and 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 The timing of the heat worked well this past week with a progression of heat starting last thursday in the warmer spots and peaking on sunday ahead of the front. For many this did reach 3 or 4 90 (+) in a row, pther sites had at least 2. Interestingly guidance quickly moved away from the strong ridging and heat it had showed for this coming week and it looks like we will continue with an overall warm/humid pattern with increased rain chances once past tuesday. The next chance of 90s will arrive tue - fri with thu or fri offering the best potential for widespread 90s if we can stay sunny. We should see more unstable conditions by the weekend as an ULL and associated frontal boundry moves slowly from the GL north into New England. Pending on how the front tracks we shoud see a return of a much more humid flow and enhanced rain chances which will keep mins high and maxes lower. Behind this trough, the week of 8/13 should open near normal and gradually see temps warm as the western atlantic ridge builds west raising heights and humidity along the east coast on/around 8/15 into the longer range. We'll also have to see if the tropics impact the pattern. Summary: 8/6 - 8/16: overall warmer than normal with increased rain/storm chances. Potential 90 degree readings 8/7 - 8/10 - above normal temps. Near or below normal 8/11 - 8/12 by way of rain. 8/13 - 8/15 - normal to above. More heat higher humidity return 8/16 as trough looks to shift west and WAR and Bermuda high looks to expand...... Forecast looks to work out generally well for the 8/6 - 8/15 period. I did think the 90 degree readings last week would be more widespread and perhaps less rain than first anticipated (pending on how today winds up). But overall generally a warm/humid pattern through the 16th. Looking ahead it does appear that the 16th and 17th will see warmer/humid conditions with Friday having more potential for 90 degree readings, pending on timing with clouds. As we head into the weekend a front looks to slowly track east as a trough digs into the GL and northeast . The WAR wil give reistance to the trough and slow the front down around the east coast. Saturda looks to feature clouds and rain chances, with Sunday likely improving as the day goes on. Behind the front we should see a couple of days of drier/cooler than normal temps. Im not sure the extent of the departures or if they will match the 7/17 cooldown. I do think we'll likely see one or two days with maxes in the 70s (perhaps due to clouds) and cooler nightime lows. Warmer temps look to return on/around the 25th, whether or not the ridge and heat that guidance looks to be building back into the Plains and Mid west heads east remains to be seen. It would be intresting to match the 1953 heat timing if it did. Overall id expect the last week of the month to finish warmer than normal and i dont see any reason we wouldnt remain with increased rain chances. Lets see where guidance takes us and how the pattern evolves or reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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