SluggerWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html SPC AC 161957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR W TX INTO WRN OK... ...W TX INTO WRN OK THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INITIAL TSTM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW TX /REEVES COUNTY/ ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DRY LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL CU FORMING FARTHER S OVER BREWSTER COUNTY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK/SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND FORECAST REASONING IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK REMAIN ON TRACK AS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FULL EXTENT OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 268. ...ERN TN/NRN-ERN AL TO SERN STATES... THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE SEWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL/SRN SC AND SRN GA. THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION HAS WEAKENED THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BUT VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE LIFESPAN OF THE UPDRAFTS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS A LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUST AND/OR ISOLATED HAIL THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 266 AND 267 FOR THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 03/16/2012 I'm interested in areas that aren't included in the forecast discussion... Can someone explain to me the environmental factors driving isolated cells forming on the MO/AR border? One's already up to 33,000 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Hail is almost 2 inches now on this cell near Salem, AR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 It looks like we have some pretty good severe potential in the Big Bend and Pecos region right now. There's a bulge of moist easterly winds down there. It is uncapped in southwest Oklahoma, also with decent EHI up there, and a severe watch. Dryline northeast of Amarillo. In fact, it seems to be uncapped all the way from Texas up to Wisconsin and southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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