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CO2 levels with early N Hemisphere foliage


Jonger

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Its quite obvious that we are experiencing an early foliage explosion with the mild weather. Do you think this will cause a temporary negative forcing on CO2 levels?

The early foliage very well may have a measureable effect on CO2 levels. Here's the ESRL annual CO2 cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory:

mlo_co2_sc_obs_03437.png

Top panel:
The average seasonal cycle determined from the observations is shown (solid line). Monthly means are computed from a detrended smooth fit to the observations. The monthly means for all Januarys, Februarys, etc. are aggregated and statistics are determined with monthly resolution. The standard deviation (whisker) of each aggregated monthly mean value is a measure of the year-to-year variability in the monthly mean values. The standard error (solid box) of the aggregated monthly mean value is an estimate of the uncertainty in the aggregated monthly mean value. The average seasonal cycle determined from the reference Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) time series at the same latitude is also shown (dashed line).

Bottom Panel:
The difference between the average seasonal cycle derived from the data and that derived from the MBL reference. The average offset in the two time series has been preserved in the difference. For a description of the reference MBL time series, see the
web site.

Since the annual cycle is driven largely by northern hemisphere vegetation growth and decomposition it makes sense that early than normal plant growth would shift this year's cycle a bit to the left. On the other hand, warmer temps also accelerate decomposition and release of CO2 from last year's vegetation so maybe it will be a wash.

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The early foliage very well may have a measureable effect on CO2 levels. Here's the ESRL annual CO2 cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory:

mlo_co2_sc_obs_03437.png

Top panel:
The average seasonal cycle determined from the observations is shown (solid line). Monthly means are computed from a detrended smooth fit to the observations. The monthly means for all Januarys, Februarys, etc. are aggregated and statistics are determined with monthly resolution. The standard deviation (whisker) of each aggregated monthly mean value is a measure of the year-to-year variability in the monthly mean values. The standard error (solid box) of the aggregated monthly mean value is an estimate of the uncertainty in the aggregated monthly mean value. The average seasonal cycle determined from the reference Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) time series at the same latitude is also shown (dashed line).

Bottom Panel:
The difference between the average seasonal cycle derived from the data and that derived from the MBL reference. The average offset in the two time series has been preserved in the difference. For a description of the reference MBL time series, see the
web site.

Since the annual cycle is driven largely by northern hemisphere vegetation growth and decomposition it makes sense that early than normal plant growth would shift this year's cycle a bit to the left. On the other hand, warmer temps also accelerate decomposition and release of CO2 from last year's vegetation so maybe it will be a wash.

But Europe and parts of Asia potentially may be a bit retarded in their normal foliage schedule.

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