turtlehurricane Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Sometimes you can see a series of severe weather outbreaks from a mile away, I think this is one of those times (but hopefully I'm wrong). We have incredibly warm and moist air across most of the country east of the Rockies, and the GFS is showing a longwave trough crashing down the west coast over the next 3 days. The longwave's upper-divergent region reaches the plains around 3/18, and is really providing some lift by 3/19. It then continues east without cutting off until 3/22, and is still decent until about 3/23. It goes right through the MO/IL/IN in the latter part of its life. So basically I'm thinking we could have severe weather outbreaks everyday while this feature is moving through the US. The details I described will likely change, but I think there will be a trough moving east through the plains and Midwest based on the persistence of the GFS, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on all this high energy low-level air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Classic plains outbreak on the day 3 outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I think the bigger story with this will be farther west. Unless something changes it looks like a low end severe threat at best from the MS Valley eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 I think the bigger story with this will be farther west. Unless something changes it looks like a low end severe threat at best from the MS Valley eastward. Agreed, this is mostly a plains event. I still expect some minor severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Classic plains outbreak on the day 3 outlook http://www.spc.noaa....k/day3otlk.html Except no mention of tornadoes due to possible LCL problems and lack of LL shear showing up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 The latest SPC Day 3 for Monday the 19th has a large slight risk from MN to TX, with far western WI in play as in much of IA and MO--while knocking on the door of western IL. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Agreed, this is mostly a plains event. I still expect some minor severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi though. Agreed. That ridge is looking rather stout for the next week or so. Areas under less of its influence (ring of fire type stuff) may see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Agreed. That ridge is looking rather stout for the next week or so. Areas under less of its influence (ring of fire type stuff) may see something. Absolutely amazing that we are referencing "ring of fire" type storms in mid March! What an anomaly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Slight risk has been added for parts of IN/OH/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Absolutely amazing that we are referencing "ring of fire" type storms in mid March! What an anomaly! Right? It's kinda a shame too because with this instability we could see some amazing outbreaks. It's just weird to see such weak storm systems and upper level shear in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Right? It's kinda a shame too because with this instability we could see some amazing outbreaks. It's just weird to see such weak storm systems and upper level shear in March For your area maybe yes, but the system in the west is anything but weak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 SPC meso discussion for possible watch later today for the Cincinnati tri state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Tornado warning for Columbus. This looks like a multicell with hail and 2" of rain per hour. Possibly 1.75" hail at Plain City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 652 WFUS51 KILN 182157 TORILN OHC041-049-182230- /O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0018.120318T2157Z-120318T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 557 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO... NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 556 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUBLIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... POWELL... UPPER ARLINGTON... WORTHINGTON... MINERVA PARK... WESTERVILLE... GAHANNA... IN ADDITION...RIVERLEA...HUBER RIDGE...CENTER VILLAGE AND NEW ALBANY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE... I-71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 124... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. && LAT...LON 3995 8278 4005 8318 4021 8315 4016 8276 TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 285DEG 23KT 4012 8310 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 628 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0625 PM FUNNEL CLOUD COLUMBUS 39.99N 82.99W 03/18/2012 FRANKLIN OH TRAINED SPOTTER LOCATED NEAR OHIO 161 AND HAMILTON ROAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUdoc Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Hey guys. I'm a total novice when it comes to meterology but I do have a little bit of an understanding of storm struccture, wall cluds, scul clouds etc. I took some video from my home in powell ohio directly as tornado wanrned cell and area of rotation passed obverhead. I know i saw a wall cloud about 5 minutes earlier verly clearly. I think in my vids it's still a wall clud but then I have trouble understanding if I'm seeing SCUD clouds getting caught in an updraft or the beginings of a funnel. Either way there were some major updrafts. Please let me know what you guys think I saw. If anything. And if this isn't the place for the question please tell me where to move it to. Thanks in advance and I apologize in advance for the F bomb or two in the vids. I was stepping on some rocks! ..click on wheel, bottom right and change quality to high def Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Big ole's supercells rolling across the Great Plains, the longwave is beginning to make it's presence known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 hmm, looks like central Ohio might be under the gun again....according to radar. Probably scattered torrential rain and hailers, verrrry slow movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 One heck of a squall line is hitting MN and northern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Band coming in fast to my south...might just get clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 t storm warning...just entering the south end of La Crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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