CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 that's some pretty quick warming. Yeah no kidding. Pretty aggressive. I know it's normal for those to have some spread when you get out in time, but you can see some models try to continue to warm while some cool. But, I'd say there is good agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Seems a bit aggressive, but again, it's a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Ssta trend is now encouraging. Go snow or go home for now. The fear is a niño on steroids with a sub par nao but hopefully that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Ssta trend is now encouraging. Go snow or go home for now. The fear is a niño on steroids with a sub par nao but hopefully that doesn't happen. Hey Jerry. There are several things we have to watch out for, assuming we develop a sustainable warm event: 1. Will the warm anomalies focus in eastern regions? 2. How quickly does the E QBO wave complete and at what point does westerly momentum begin to affect the lower stratosphere? 3. Solar max is expected to occur this time next year. Will solar activity continue to oscillate between very low levels and moderate / briefly high levels or will it become persistently high? 4. Will there be a significant volcanic eruption and if so where? A few examples of wintry solar max el ninos include 57-58, 68-69, 82-83 (one monster) and 02-03. The key will be what base and what the stratosphere ends up doing. My best early guess is that winter this year is backloaded for these simple reasons: 1. Kelvin wave propagates to South America and returns westward, weakening ENSO and focusing the warm anomalies further west with time. 2. QBO will be transitioning, possibly westerly for the second half of winter as the sun intensifies toward maximum. 3. um...I don't have a 3, lol. Going to be interesting watching what base this warming event becomes over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Thanks for your thoughts man. 2002/2003 was big time backloaded here on the coast. 50" in about 5 weeks here from the surprise 2/7/03 storm through another surprise 3/6/03 storm. The solar max stuff has me wondering about the AO too. I'm thinking it may not be all that negative right now,but when you consider all the other factors that are involved....it's more of a WAG right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Thanks for your thoughts man. 2002/2003 was big time backloaded here on the coast. 50" in about 5 weeks here from the surprise 2/7/03 storm through another surprise 3/6/03 storm. The solar max stuff has me wondering about the AO too. I'm thinking it may not be all that negative right now,but when you consider all the other factors that are involved....it's more of a WAG right now. LL will be insufferable in Dec if HM is right, oh no please make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 LL will be insufferable in Dec if HM is right, oh no please make it stop Dec 09 was an exception, but winters sometimes start off slow in an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Thanks for your thoughts man. 2002/2003 was big time backloaded here on the coast. 50" in about 5 weeks here from the surprise 2/7/03 storm through another surprise 3/6/03 storm. The solar max stuff has me wondering about the AO too. I'm thinking it may not be all that negative right now,but when you consider all the other factors that are involved....it's more of a WAG right now. I'm worried about the AO too. I don't like it when you have to rely on solar activity timing and QBO switch timing all at once...increased error likely. This past winter, the timing of necessary factors for a stratospheric warming/disturbance actually worked out when estimated to happen but meant nothing since it wasn't synergistic with the tropical forcing. In an El Nino (or neutral year), especially a west-based one, this sort of problem is less likely to happen since the Walker Cell is more favorable along with the BDC. 1994-95 and 2006-07 were perfect examples of poor stratospheric conditions for a -AO to start off winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 LL will be insufferable in Dec if HM is right, oh no please make it stop Hey for all I know, the El Nino could strictly become west based, the sun takes a nose dive mid to late autumn and the E QBO is hanging on leading to a rocking start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Hey Jerry. There are several things we have to watch out for, assuming we develop a sustainable warm event: 1. Will the warm anomalies focus in eastern regions? 2. How quickly does the E QBO wave complete and at what point does westerly momentum begin to affect the lower stratosphere? 3. Solar max is expected to occur this time next year. Will solar activity continue to oscillate between very low levels and moderate / briefly high levels or will it become persistently high? 4. Will there be a significant volcanic eruption and if so where? A few examples of wintry solar max el ninos include 57-58, 68-69, 82-83 (one monster) and 02-03. The key will be what base and what the stratosphere ends up doing. My best early guess is that winter this year is backloaded for these simple reasons: 1. Kelvin wave propagates to South America and returns westward, weakening ENSO and focusing the warm anomalies further west with time. 2. QBO will be transitioning, possibly westerly for the second half of winter as the sun intensifies toward maximum. 3. um...I don't have a 3, lol. Going to be interesting watching what base this warming event becomes over the summer. Always great to see your thoughts HM. Food for thought: the past 2 winters have defied conventional wisdom though (I think it was you) your recent post mortem is a great eye opener. Can we learn our lessons? Lots of time left before the smoke supposedly clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Always great to see your thoughts HM. Food for thought: the past 2 winters have defied conventional wisdom though (I think it was you) your recent post mortem is a great eye opener. Can we learn our lessons? Lots of time left before the smoke supposedly clears. Are you referring to the "GLAAMorous" blog? Yes that's me. That article mainly focused on La Nina winters and the different types. In terms of learning our lessons, we'll see the next time we face La Nina winters. El Nino years are a bit easier to sniff out with many of the rules being more amplified during warm events than cold events. But I am planning to write something up over the summer about El Nino and some of the rules that exist. Everyone has their own methods and tricks for forecasting certain teleconnections etc. but I'm going to focus on the basics/major players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 I think this anti blocking regime may carry right into the summer. Makes me wonder about how much of an impact the solar stuff has...and what happens come Fall? I hope it carries right into next fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I hope it carries right into next fall. Would be nice to get a turn around in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 With a Nino looking more likely, my greatest fear is for an east-based event. If we end up with a 95/07 type season...I'll quit weather. My passion is just now starting to be rekindled and recover....hopefully the tropical season doesn't retard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 With a Nino looking more likely, my greatest fear is for an east-based event. If we end up with a 95/07 type season...I'll quit weather. My passion is just now starting to be rekindled and recover....hopefully the tropical season doesn't retard that. East based and a +NAO? We'll be Tobin jumping together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 With a Nino looking more likely, my greatest fear is for an east-based event. If we end up with a 95/07 type season...I'll quit weather. My passion is just now starting to be rekindled and recover....hopefully the tropical season doesn't retard that. what tropical season? you seem like an IMBY type enthusiast.....not caring for SE coastal hurricane threats.....so it seems like your set up for a fail if your hoping for some excitement from tropics in newengland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 what tropical season? you seem like an IMBY type enthusiast.....not caring for SE coastal hurricane threats.....so it seems like your set up for a fail if your hoping for some excitement from tropics in newengland Wrong. I'm IMBY with snow, not canes....as long as it's US and strong, I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Fight, fight, fight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 If it's long and strong and down to get the friction on..Ray is happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Wrong. I'm IMBY with snow, not canes....as long as it's US and strong, I'm happy I could see the NAO switching around this winter. My guess, interior NE US is probably the best relative to average. Just more of a WAG being so far out. If solar quiets down this fall and winter, then things maybe are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Wrong. I'm IMBY with snow, not canes....as long as it's US and strong, I'm happy that's cool ray i belong to a tropical board as well but they are overly ridiculous about not "rooting" for hurricane's because joe shmoe's 7'th cousin lost there house in katrina so nobody else can enjoy a landfalling cane there. its too bad. i would fly down to visit my parents in FLL if a cat 2 or 3 was bearing down on the coast...got friends in boca and up in fortpierce as well. this year well see where if a mean trough sets up and it's location/allignment is obviously key. last year the recurves at 65 west were booorrrrrrrinngg. hurricane Wilma was personally one of my MOST MEMORABLE wx events. truly awesome. the build up for hurricane Floyd down there was awesome as well. what a close call and monster storm that was ...NW bahamas obliterated. enjoyed hurricane Jeanne in lantana fl on the intracoastal waterway and saw winds sustained about 90 mph at the height w gusts to prolly near 100 but it was at nite so not that impressive to live thru. Wilma was most impressive with gusts prolly 115 to 120 when TSHTF. The gusts were memorable as you could see the palm trees bend horizontal and the roof shingles be stripped off roofs when mother nature hit the gas pedal on the gusts. Was there for hurricane Francis and charley as well. Was west of FLL by about 20 miles for charley and just saw 45 mph gusts that's all. Was in same spot for francis and didn't see squat while 30 miles NE in s. palm beach county where i worked had 75 mph gusts and lots of trees down. Also enjoyed tropical storm Irene in around ?2000 and it damn near seemed like a cane....winds were 70mph sustained and lots of students were outside playing volleyball. cant wait for next cane to hit Florida....and also i have been very vocal about how the town of key west is a ticking time bomb down there....for extremely high death tolls (by today's standards) because those folks wont leave and they are "due" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 that's cool ray i belong to a tropical board as well but they are overly ridiculous about not "rooting" for hurricane's because joe shmoe's 7'th cousin lost there house in katrina so nobody else can enjoy a landfalling cane there. its too bad. i would fly down to visit my parents in FLL if a cat 2 or 3 was bearing down on the coast...got friends in boca and up in fortpierce as well. this year well see where if a mean trough sets up and it's location/allignment is obviously key. last year the recurves at 65 west were booorrrrrrrinngg. hurricane Wilma was personally one of my MOST MEMORABLE wx events. truly awesome. the build up for hurricane Floyd down there was awesome as well. what a close call and monster storm that was ...NW bahamas obliterated. enjoyed hurricane Jeanne in lantana fl on the intracoastal waterway and saw winds sustained about 90 mph at the height w gusts to prolly near 100 but it was at nite so not that impressive to live thru. Wilma was most impressive with gusts prolly 115 to 120 when TSHTF. The gusts were memorable as you could see the palm trees bend horizontal and the roof shingles be stripped off roofs when mother nature hit the gas pedal on the gusts. Was there for hurricane Francis and charley as well. Was west of FLL by about 20 miles for charley and just saw 45 mph gusts that's all. Was in same spot for francis and didn't see squat while 30 miles NE in s. palm beach county where i worked had 75 mph gusts and lots of trees down. Also enjoyed tropical storm Irene in around ?2000 and it damn near seemed like a cane....winds were 70mph sustained and lots of students were outside playing volleyball. cant wait for next cane to hit Florida....and also i have been very vocal about how the town of key west is a ticking time bomb down there....for extremely high death tolls (by today's standards) because those folks wont leave and they are "due" I hate that....I blatantly tell people off who start that $hit. This is the one forum in the world where fascinating meterololgy is prioritzed and those who can't deal with that need not be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Oh noes! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Given the base ENSO state developing...well at least should be developing...I would not expect those type of anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Oh noes! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif Has Ji canceled winter yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Oh noes! http://www.cpc.ncep....sT2mSeaInd6.gif I could live with that....normal imby. Lots of melting in Tolland, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I could live with that....normal imby. Lots of melting in Tolland, though. That just changed....lol. It had oranges everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Niño incoming. How strong and the base is the question at this point. Could be a great winter if a few more things break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Looks like nina might not give up..Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Looks like nina might not give up..Not good Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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