40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Most guidance has us entering into el Nino territory for the summer and I think I speak for most when saying "good, it's time for a change". Bring it. Historically, el Ninos are not great for the tropics, but guess what.....I'll bet that we won't have a season any lamer than the last couple have been. Sure, the ACE mongerers may have to lay off the golden calculator for a season, but for those of us who enjoy tracking a US LFing cane...who cares because they weren't hitting us, anyway. I'd almost rather a season of nothing, than a season full of nothing but ACE groupies rebutting you each time the lack of US impact is lamented. But, hey....I'm glad for the unihabited rice patty in Nicaragua that we would have never known existed had it not been for HurricaneJosh videotaping it and adding some of his own, unique, eccentric dialogue. As autumn heralds another winter, do me the favor of allowing the terms SSW, SWFE, and "gradient pattern" to part ways with your memory banks. We have been in La Nina seemingly since the final swells retreated from Steve's sw RI beachfront property in Feb 1978, and I for one, think it's time for a change. No more Scooter diatribes regarding how I am due for a garbage season because I have avged 2" above my long term mean over the course of the past 20 years....we can apply one of the most zealous, emphatic CHECKS in the history of mankind to that fetish. Cross that one of the 'ole, perverse bucket list....happy? Even if we are dealt a 1997-'98 heffer, it absolutely, positively and unequivocally will not be worse than the travesty that I have just endured....bring it. I guess it could have been worse....sleep well, Will.....thank Christ that this past season's remarkability himen will forever remain pristine and entirely intact, since I received that last 3.1" of monotony. What kind of monster would have rooted otherwise? Happy el Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 The pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 GOT to me...past tense. I left. It's over. I'm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 So you had one bad winter in a string of average to epic winters and everyone is jumping off a bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I disagree about a Nino by the summer...I think just about the entire summer is more neutral and perhaps into the fall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 So you had one bad winter in a string of average to epic winters and everyone is jumping off a bridge. The young will now appreciate the 10 s and normal winters again. This is like a .180 season for a .350 hitter. Oops back to reality oops there goes gravity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I disagree about a Nino by the summer...I think just about the entire summer is more neutral and perhaps into the fall as well. I think there will be a weak el niño by late summer, but not before August 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I don't know what is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I think there will be a weak el niño by late summer, but not before August 1st. We'll definitely be in the + range for Nino 3.4 but I certainly don't think we'll be near Nino conditions by the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I don't know what is going on here. Ray with a Vim TOOTish! vent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Classic rant. This made my day. Looking forward to some Ray time at the next gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 Long live toot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Some of the models actually try to bring us back towards weak Nina or neutral by Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Most guidance has us entering into el Nino territory for the summer and I think I speak for most when saying "good, it's time for a change". Bring it. Historically, el Ninos are not great for the tropics, but guess what.....I'll bet that we won't have a season any lamer than the last couple have been. Sure, the ACE mongerers may have to lay off the golden calculator for a season, but for those of us who enjoy tracking a US LFing cane...who cares because they weren't hitting us, anyway. I'd almost rather a season of nothing, than a season full of nothing but ACE groupies rebutting you each time the lack of US impact is lamented. But, hey....I'm glad for the unihabited rice patty in Nicaragua that we would have never known existed had it not been for HurricaneJosh videotaping it and adding some of his own, unique, eccentric dialogue. As autumn heralds another winter, do me the favor of allowing the terms SSW, SWFE, and "gradient pattern" to part ways with your memory banks. We have been in La Nina seemingly since the final swells retreated from Steve's sw RI beachfront property in Feb 1978, and I for one, think it's time for a change. No more Scooter diatribes regarding how I am due for a garbage season because I have avged 2" above my long term mean over the course of the past 20 years....we can apply one of the most zealous, emphatic CHECKS in the history of mankind to that fetish. Cross that one of the 'ole, perverse bucket list....happy? Even if we are dealt a 1997-'98 heffer, it absolutely, positively and unequivocally will not be worse than the travesty that I have just endured....bring it. I guess it could have been worse....sleep well, Will.....thank Christ that this past season's remarkability himen will forever remain pristine and entirely intact, since I received that last 3.1" of monotony. What kind of monster would have rooted otherwise? Happy el Nino. The whole point of my diatribe was that we were "due" for a GOA type low which is exactly what we got. I don't count dud winters that gave us bad luck like '09/'10. That doesn't count, because the overall pattern was very favorable for the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Some of the models actually try to bring us back towards weak Nina or neutral by Fall. This somewhat goes along with my thinking. I really don't see us getting into an EL Nino by the summer, I think there is a chance that by the fall we get into weak Nino territory, however, the signal may be on the weak side so I'm not sure of much of an actual influence it would have on the large-scale pattern, especially considering the atmosphere will still have the lagging effects of the Nina we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 This somewhat goes along with my thinking. I really don't see us getting into an EL Nino by the summer, I think there is a chance that by the fall we get into weak Nino territory, however, the signal may be on the weak side so I'm not sure of much of an actual influence it would have on the large-scale pattern, especially considering the atmosphere will still have the lagging effects of the Nina we just had. I think it seems like we are heading to weak niño it's just that there is some disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I think it seems like we are heading to weak niño it's just that there is some disagreement. meh I'm not virtually sold on the Nino just yet. So far the most impressive warmer anomalies and warming has occurred in region 1+2 but we have not really seen much warming at all across the other regions. In fact, the other regions have been much more stable. I would at least like to start seeing a bit more in the way of warming across these regions occur over the next two months which is certainly possible but right now I would lean more towards neutral than weak Nino at this point...this is for the summer of course, we could try to get a Nino by the fall but even then right now I'd be a bit skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 2020-21 will be an outstanding winter. I hope I make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 The Euro did back off in the early March update for the Nino....there's def a chance it could stay neutral or even go back to a weak Nina...I wouldn't favor another Nina but I don't think an actual El Nino is a big favorite yet. ECMWF looks like a warm neutral. I'd probably pick El Nino over any other individual state at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Ssta 's are cooling over the past weeks once again raising the question of whether or not we're going to have to endure another Nina or neutral to Nina. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 The whole point of my diatribe was that we were "due" for a GOA type low which is exactly what we got. I don't count dud winters that gave us bad luck like '09/'10. That doesn't count, because the overall pattern was very favorable for the East Coast. '09'10 was immensely frustrating, but not at all a dud. I never, ever implied that it was of the ilk of this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 Some of the models actually try to bring us back towards weak Nina or neutral by Fall. Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I will have to laugh if we get 22 inches of snow on 3/31 making this yeqr paper historically ok. Which would set us up for 13 inches next winter. Speaking BOS numbers. And no, I don't expect it to okay out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 '09'10 was immensely frustrating, but not at all a dud. I never, ever implied that it was of the ilk of this passed winter. I was just responding to your comment about you only being 2" over your min. Despite you not having serious + departures, we were sort if expecting something like this winter. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later and boy did it ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 meh I'm not virtually sold on the Nino just yet. So far the most impressive warmer anomalies and warming has occurred in region 1+2 but we have not really seen much warming at all across the other regions. In fact, the other regions have been much more stable. I would at least like to start seeing a bit more in the way of warming across these regions occur over the next two months which is certainly possible but right now I would lean more towards neutral than weak Nino at this point...this is for the summer of course, we could try to get a Nino by the fall but even then right now I'd be a bit skeptical. We'll want the Nino to fail if that is a trend that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I'm more interested to see how the pattern over the north pole sets up this summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 I was just responding to your comment about you only being 2" over your min. Despite you not having serious + departures, we were sort if expecting something like this winter. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later and boy did it ever. I know what you meant. What a dissapointing tropical\winter couplet....about the worst I have ever seen. '04-'05 being the best......'95-'96 the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I'm more interested to see how the pattern over the north pole sets up this summer and fall. YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I know what you meant. What a dissapointing tropical\winter couplet....about the worst I have ever seen. '04-'05 being the best......'95-'96 the 2nd. Well at least Irene was interesting up here. I mean it's not often we get a system like that up here even though it was weakening. This winter just sucked period. I was locked up all winter in that shed of yours and repeatedly tortured by a beast of a man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2012 Author Share Posted March 18, 2012 Well at least Irene was interesting up here. I mean it's not often we get a system like that up here even though it was weakening. This winter just sucked period. I was locked up all winter in that shed of yours and repeatedly tortured by a beast of a man. Irene was a dissapointment....period. I would have rathered a cat 3 into FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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