Wilmington, OH (ILN) NWS failed Licking Co. during major flash flood event

[upsloper]

Mix of a meteorological synopsis and rant, here. I don't mean to call out the entire ILN NWS. Just those that staffed it overnight.

http://www.newarkadv...ammed-by-storms

Don't know how many people saw the event unfold. I couldn't fall asleep because I was over-caffeinated last night, but I ended up pulling an all-nighter when I jumped on my computer and began realizing what kind of situation was developing east of Columbus.

A north-south-oriented band on thunderstorms had been slowly moving through OH along the head of moist and moderate 850mb westerly flow beneath steep lapse rates. An impressive cold pool had been steadily building to the east of the convection, and I noted the speed of band's progression to be decreasing - given the environmental conditions, a classic signal for prolonged heavy rain potential. Yet, at 516 AM, about 2 hours after this trend was apparent, the ILN AFD stated that the band "will continue to move to the east and out of the [forecast area]." At the point of issuing this AFD, the band was already mostly stationary and even partly retrogressive, and, if I remember correctly, Wilmington radar was already indicating a quick 4-5 inches of rainfall in some parts, though values were inflated by excessive hail in the events early stages.

Well, ILN ended up going with a Flood Advisory for affected areas, all while I could hear talk of "multiple roads impassible", "schools closing" and "vehicle entrapment" on the local EMS/fire scanner. Soon after people were calling for boats and dive teams. It wasn't until after 807 AM that a Flood Warning was issued. In my opinion, however, a flash flood warning was needed much earlier. At the close of the event, radar indicated rainfall values, unadjusted for inflation, approached 8 inches. The saving grace for those affected was that the cold pool pushed well west and diffused the convergence quite a bit.

But even forgeting the meteorological setup and the opportunity ILN had to give rescuers and people with sensitive property advanced notice: When all you have to do is listen to EMS and fire reports to realize conditions meet warning criteria, NWS employees need to take action. It's lucky the event did not last longer and that nobody, to my knowledge, was killed.

[Shsg Falls]

Good post.

I think the Wednesday night/Thursday morning event is a great learning experience. To my knowledge, it was not handled well at all in the numerical model data or human forecasts. Even in this day and age the weather still throws dangerous surprises, even in the 6-12 hour timeframe. The CLE AFD from Wednesday evening:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

924 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS

TONIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP NEAR LAKE ERIE THE WAVERS BACK

AND FORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID

50S ADVECTING INTO AREA CANT SEE TEMPS DIPPING BELOW THAT. FEW

TSRA POPPING UP ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING

ORGANIZED BUT CHANCE REMAINS FOR A FEW TSRA WEST HALF OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS DIFFER BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO SPREAD SCT CONVECTION NE

ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THE LATTER PART OF THE

NIGHT. THE AIRMASS IN THE WEST COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY

AND WIND SHEAR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM TO OCCUR BUT A LITTLE

BETTER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THU AFTERNOON. THE REAL ISSUE IS

TRYING TO FIND A GOOD FOCUS TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN WHERE THE

CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...WHICH IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO

FIND.

[upsloper]

I think the Wednesday night/Thursday morning event is a great learning experience. To my knowledge, it was not handled well at all in the numerical model data or human forecasts. Even in this day and age the weather still throws dangerous surprises, even in the 6-12 hour timeframe.

Right on. The models did not resolve the event, which brings up the issue of over-reliance on models. The focus for convection, in addition to some 850mb forcing, ended up being the convection itself, essentially. The convection/cold pool/convergence feedback effect is something that someone with knowledge on convective dynamics should have been able to spot.

CLE NWS did a better job with the event, I noticed. They issued warnings for counties that weren't nearly as bad as Licking Co. well before ILN issued any.

[Nic]

Mix of a meteorological synopsis and rant, here. I don't mean to call out the entire ILN NWS. Just those that staffed it overnight.

http://www.newarkadv...ammed-by-storms

Don't know how many people saw the event unfold. I couldn't fall asleep because I was over-caffeinated last night, but I ended up pulling an all-nighter when I jumped on my computer and began realizing what kind of situation was developing east of Columbus.

A north-south-oriented band on thunderstorms had been slowly moving through OH along the head of moist and moderate 850mb westerly flow beneath steep lapse rates. An impressive cold pool had been steadily building to the east of the convection, and I noted the speed of band's progression to be decreasing - given the environmental conditions, a classic signal for prolonged heavy rain potential. Yet, at 516 AM, about 2 hours after this trend was apparent, the ILN AFD stated that the band "will continue to move to the east and out of the [forecast area]." At the point of issuing this AFD, the band was already mostly stationary and even partly retrogressive, and, if I remember correctly, Wilmington radar was already indicating a quick 4-5 inches of rainfall in some parts, though values were inflated by excessive hail in the events early stages.

Well, ILN ended up going with a Flood Advisory for affected areas, all while I could hear talk of "multiple roads impassible", "schools closing" and "vehicle entrapment" on the local EMS/fire scanner. Soon after people were calling for boats and dive teams. It wasn't until after 807 AM that a Flood Warning was issued. In my opinion, however, a flash flood warning was needed much earlier. At the close of the event, radar indicated rainfall values, unadjusted for inflation, approached 8 inches. The saving grace for those affected was that the cold pool pushed well west and diffused the convergence quite a bit.

But even forgeting the meteorological setup and the opportunity ILN had to give rescuers and people with sensitive property advanced notice: When all you have to do is listen to EMS and fire reports to realize conditions meet warning criteria, NWS employees need to take action. It's lucky the event did not last longer and that nobody, to my knowledge, was killed.

I am on the western part of Licking county, only got 0.50 inch. looks like 10 miles east and they got 10 times that. Glad it missed here did not need 5 inches of rain.

[buckeye]

I talked to someone today who lives near newark (east of columbus).... 6" of accumulated hail.

Biggest nws fail of all time for Ohio had to be the June 1990 Shady Side, Ohio flashflood that killed 26 people.

[Nic]

I talked to someone today who lives near newark (east of columbus).... 6" of accumulated hail.

Biggest nws fail of all time for Ohio had to be the June 1990 Shady Side, Ohio flashflood that killed 26 people.

That is more then the biggest snowfall this past winter.

[upsloper]

I talked to someone today who lives near newark (east of columbus).... 6" of accumulated hail.

Wow. That's insane.

[nwohweather]

I talked to someone today who lives near newark (east of columbus).... 6" of accumulated hail.

Biggest nws fail of all time for Ohio had to be the June 1990 Shady Side, Ohio flashflood that killed 26 people.

That was basically a landslide. 6" of rain basically all washing through the valley at once is just plain nasty

[WestMichigan]

Shadyside is surrounded on both sides by some pretty good hills. Anything that falls runs down and right by the east edge of town. 1990 was quite the flood over there.

[BeauDodson]

Don't know how many people saw the event unfold. I couldn't fall asleep because I was over-caffeinated last night, but I ended up pulling an all-nighter when I jumped on my computer and began realizing what kind of situation was developing east of Columbus.

Well, ILN ended up going with a Flood Advisory for affected areas, all while I could hear talk of "multiple roads impassible", "schools closing" and "vehicle entrapment" on the local EMS/fire scanner. Soon after people were calling for boats and dive teams.

I guess the obvious question here is did you call the NWS to tell them all of this?

Just curious because a lot of people assume that someone else has called them - when in fact they have not. You would be surprised what the NWS doesn't know.

[wxman_ind]

^^ That's exactly what I was going to ask. If you hear something like that, please call the NWS. We may not know anything about it, and if we do, your call will still help confirm information.

[Analog96]

^^ That's exactly what I was going to ask. If you hear something like that, please call the NWS. We may not know anything about it, and if we do, your call will still help confirm information.

I remember a thunderstorm we had here on July 1, 1996. It was a VERY small and isolated thunderstorm. It also barely moved. It basically moved a bit NE, then retrograded back SW. Basically, my house was in the center of the maximum area of rainfall. A few miles any side had very little rain, but I had over five inches. NWS had to issue a very localized FFW, thanks to my phone call. They had no idea.

[WestMichigan]

I talked to someone today who lives near newark (east of columbus).... 6" of accumulated hail.

Biggest nws fail of all time for Ohio had to be the June 1990 Shady Side, Ohio flashflood that killed 26 people.

Buckeye - any confirmation of this? I can't seem to find anything online about it.

[OceanStWx]

I guess the obvious question here is did you call the NWS to tell them all of this?

Just curious because a lot of people assume that someone else has called them - when in fact they have not. You would be surprised what the NWS doesn't know.

I don't think you'll ever find an office that wants less ground truth.

Although I find myself confused by various office policies on flood statements too. I think I'm very much a flood being related to large river flooding and flash flood coming from precip runoff. Though it isn't always that way from WFO to WFO.