CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 NWS has 77F for Rindge Weds. I think we see 80s somewhere in southern NH. I'm not buying what the 12z ECM is selling. The position of the high pressure argues for WSW winds, and I have a lot of exposure to my south, so I'm thinking it gets warm here. Until I start to see some agreement with ridge placement and some signs of a very solid southwesterly/westerly pressure gradient I have a hard time getting excited bout 75-80 anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well everyone cares to a point, but he tends to march by the beat of his own drum. I guess it bothers me because if I was that careless...I'd have my butt handed to me. I don't have an issue per se with those warmer temps, but no need to swing for the fences on a 7 day. I dunno - the one time that I am damn confident going above MOS guidance past D5 is when we're talking early spring warmth. I know it's weighted toward climo - but warmth this early is usually all or nothing. I like widespread U70s L80s next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 I dunno - the one time that I am damn confident going above MOS guidance past D5 is when we're talking early spring warmth. I know it's weighted toward climo - but warmth this early is usually all or nothing. I like widespread U70s L80s next week. I tend to agree with this observation. I have sarcastically barbed recently myself that folks should just take the MOS+ (3 or 5C) for spring warmth as an autocorrective device. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I dunno - the one time that I am damn confident going above MOS guidance past D5 is when we're talking early spring warmth. I know it's weighted toward climo - but warmth this early is usually all or nothing. I like widespread U70s L80s next week. True... though seeing a fairly weak pressure gradient makes me hesitant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I dunno - the one time that I am damn confident going above MOS guidance past D5 is when we're talking early spring warmth. I know it's weighted toward climo - but warmth this early is usually all or nothing. I like widespread U70s L80s next week. At one point the euro had 70s for SNE/CNE for this Thu-Sat. That didn't pan out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I tend to agree with this observation. I have sarcastically barbed recently myself that folks should just take the MOS+ (3 or 5C) for spring warmth as an autocorrective device. haha. I once won a bet with my entire office in grad school that UNV would reach 70 - it was a week out and our first true warmup of the year in early April 2008 (nothing even close to this MORCH, of course) - everyone thought I was nuts, MOS had us progged at a max of 63 or something... we hit 71. Someone said "I got lucky because the sun came out for longer than expected" ... sore losers. I think I got a coffee/sub/and a couple drinks out of that bet... This MORCH was apparent for ages ... usually 70s hold off until April ... but once the floodgates open and there's no onshore component, I have no problem bumping those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 True... though seeing a fairly weak pressure gradient makes me hesitant. Yeah, you're right... you generally need a strong synoptic flow to pump the warmth in here and keep the onshore mucus at bay ... I haven't paid that much attention to the models today (as an aside, working on a huge data crunch) ... so there may be a few flies in the oinment for next week. Regardless, the departures in the OH Valley and Midwest are off the charts ridic... I think STL was 86 for a high yesterday, +34 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 At one point the euro had 70s for SNE/CNE for this Thu-Sat. That didn't pan out too well. Good point - this is the season where models crap the bed on SFC temps... we shall have to watch what unfolds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Holy tornado Tuesday... What were you referring to? SPC outlook highlights Sunday-Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 What were you referring to? SPC outlook highlights Sunday-Monday: Wow, that is very rare for this far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Wow, that is very rare for this far out in time. What's rare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Warmest temp of the day at 45. Hopefully Saturday isn't too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 What's rare? seeing a risk that far out in time, I have only seen it a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Warmest temp of the day at 45. Hopefully Saturday isn't too bad You are insufferable this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 seeing a risk that far out in time, I have only seen it a few times. It's fairly common in the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Warmest temp of the day at 45. Hopefully Saturday isn't too bad Saturday is the one day where I want it to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 You are insufferable this time of year! Its easy to be pessimistic this time of the year...BDFs suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 man, i just can't get over this NAM's synoptic appeal for this Sunday.... like 69-72F under virtually cloudless sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Warmest temp of the day at 45. Hopefully Saturday isn't too bad Should be great according to the A+ student Euro has BDL tickling 80 next weekend AWT..Just a full fledged summer weekend for St. Patty's Day. I am actually really looking forward to that. March madness starts Friday with day off from work and drinking all day and night..and then a summerlike weekend full of shorts, tees, and bikinis FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I dunno - the one time that I am damn confident going above MOS guidance past D5 is when we're talking early spring warmth. I know it's weighted toward climo - but warmth this early is usually all or nothing. I like widespread U70s L80s next week. Well back this way, no question that MOS will likely be too low on 2-3 days....but it takes a special set of ingredients to put 82 up on a 7 day for the BOS area in mid March. I don't see them exactly coming together perfectly...or perhaps I should say...we don't have all the questions answered right now, for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Saturday looks beautiful inland..60-65 and sunny. Glad most of us aren't in ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Its easy to be pessimistic this time of the year...BDFs suck. Even if we have a seabreeze Will....having the sun out really helps. That's all I want. The beer warms everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 This weekend looks great. What a weekend to tear it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 St Pattys parade might have nudity on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Somewhat chilly air near the nrn tier of the US and SE Canada heading towards April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Cloud cover held all day in Greenfield. Temp never went above 48 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Taunton forecasting 79 for BDL next Thursday ... record is 75 How often do you see a NWS day 7 forecast a full 4 degrees higher than the record? That's gotta be rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 This weekend looks great. What a weekend to tear it up. Depends what you're tearing up I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 St Pattys parade might have nudity on Sunday. No one will be complaining about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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