Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 the MET MOS was horrible today for this area. way way too cold. it had 48F at HYA...it's 65F. meanwhile, 72 at FIT, 71 OWD, 70 EWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Thanks for finally giving me kudos. I appreciate it Concerns completely unwarranted To Kevin's defense I think he was calling out 75-80 degree temps for around this time back on the 6th or 7th. Whether it was just him being an angry over anxious weenie regarding the current state of winter at that time, or his expert model reading abilities that helped him make his call is still up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I was talking to Gibbs earlier..he has April above normal and the first 10 days above normal in the mean..but obviously not like we've had this month. I could see some backdoors occasionally, but still am of the firm opinion we have all seen our last snow Most people do have April above normal. The second half of the month could be warm. Like I said...you still can have warmer and cooler periods..but you can see how higher elevations could have a little snow. Remember, it can be in the 50s one day and the same airmass will give ORH snow that next. It's all sbout temps aloft. So no..while I would not lock in snow..I think it still is possible for areas near and above 1K or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 the MET MOS was horrible today for this area. way way too cold. it had 48F at HYA...it's 65F. meanwhile, 72 at FIT, 71 OWD, 70 EWB I think the euro win with the BD depiction too. The GFS about 3 days ago was a little too aggressive I think..but in the end..had the right idea. So GFS had the idea, but euro was more like a seabreeze deal which seems like the real outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I think the euro win with the BD depiction too. The GFS about 3 days ago was a little too aggressive I think..but in the end..had the right idea. So GFS had the idea, but euro was more like a seabreeze deal which seems like the real outcome. just looking at the NAM 2-m #s...compare the 00z and 12z valid 18z this afternoon. NAM did really well with the last cool down/BDF...it's sucking with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 wooooooooshhh but but but :sun: thermals are taking everything right over my head today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 just looking at the NAM 2-m #s...compare the 00z and 12z valid 18z this afternoon. NAM did really well with the last cool down/BDF...it's sucking with this one. We were just saying in house....I wonder of this accelerates further sw in the next few hours..maybe get a 10-12kt wind off the water? It's pretty pathetic right now. If this continues..spots like interior MA could get close to 80 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 We were just saying in house....I wonder of this accelerates further sw in the next few hours..maybe get a 10-12kt wind off the water? It's pretty pathetic right now. If this continues..spots like interior MA could get close to 80 again. look at the obs up in SE NH, SW ME...portland went to 65F this hour...this may end up just behaving like a basic seabreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 look at the obs up in SE NH, SW ME...portland went to 65F this hour...this may end up just behaving like a basic seabreeze. The models still push it pretty far inland, but maybe it turns into one of those things where the interior is like 07004kt or something like that. Basically, very light winds. LWM is 70 already...I don't see how they can't get to 76 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The models still push it pretty far inland, but maybe it turns into one of those things where the interior is like 07004kt or something like that. Basically, very light winds. LWM is 70 already...I don't see how they can't get to 76 or so. with the gradient so weak overall, i guess i wouldn't be surprised to see the boundary shift inland quite a bit. what's funny though is seeing temps behind the wind shift in ME are still in the 60s. so it's not the classic case of 70F in BOS and like 44F in PSM. even Bar Harbor is 59F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 with the gradient so weak overall, i guess i wouldn't be surprised to see the boundary shift inland quite a bit. what's funny though is seeing temps behind the wind shift in ME are still in the 60s. so it's not the classic case of 70F in BOS and like 44F in PSM. even Bar Harbor is 59F scratch that...they just jumped to 61F despite an east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Nam took a huge dump. bos continues to rocket.....although it should stop soon. Quite a torch....one for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 70* is now in our dust. 80 next, hit by 1:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 If spots got to 80 today..hell even 77-78 in areas like BED or LWM..then that would be a bust for sure. It would be extremely rare for a bust in the + direction when a BDF is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Nam took a huge dump. bos continues to rocket.....although it should stop soon. Quite a torch....one for the ages. the only "cold air" anywhere is sitting out in the gulf of maine and that's only thanks to the SST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 scratch that...they just jumped to 61F despite an east wind. I mean just now winds have turned NE at Matinicus Rock. So we've still got a ways to go before the front gets to Portland, if it is even that strong of a push at all. I think they'll sea breeze before the front arrives regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 If spots got to 80 today..hell even 77-78 in areas like BED or LWM..then that would be a bust for sure. It would be extremely rare for a bust in the + direction when a BDF is involved. i would think like 73-75 for that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 78.4 sensor is not in the sun either. There's also a meso site in Weare reporting 77.9 so it seems the reading isn't erroneous. It's just been an amazing run the last week in and around CON, not to take anything from everywhere else. It seems my area has been one of the warmest in New England during this stretch. NWS was going for a high of 69 and(edit) I'm now up to 79.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 MetHerb FTW? Current: High: Low: Average: Temperature: 74.8 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Already 65F here...BTV was going 69F here and everyone in my synoptic class knew that was too low...sure enough their latest update bumped us up to 75F for today. Just jumped 2F in 10 ten minutes...67F now as of 11:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 i would think like 73-75 for that area? Easily..probably another couple of ticks or so higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 For those areas that dont' get tainted by backdoor and/or seabreeze action, 80 is a slam dunk - not sure if there is any question there. Yesterday's slightly cooler thickness profile provided 77-81 in the interior zones at a few Mesonet sites. Today's profile is even more indicative. Also, if a boundary does cut into eastern zone later this afternoon, there is likelly to be some compressional heating withing 10 to 20 miles immediately in front of the boundary; subtlely observable but to the tune of a click or 2 would only add. I would not be shocked if ASH hit 83F provided they stay W of any said contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 For those areas that dont' get tainted by backdoor and/or seabreeze action, 80 is a slam dunk - not sure if there is any question there. Yesterday's slightly cooler thickness profile provided 77-81 in the interior zones at a few Mesonet sites. Today's profile is even more indicative. Also, if a boundary does cut into eastern zone later this afternoon, there is likelly to be some compressional heating withing 10 to 20 miles immediately in front of the boundary; subtlely observable but to the tune of a click or 2 would only add. I would not be shocked if ASH hit 83F provided they stay W of any said contamination. I'm almost to 80 and not even 12:00 yet, wouldn't be shocked to get to 82 or 83 here as well if the BD doesn't come and stop the skyrocketing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I'm almost to 80 and not even 12:00 yet, wouldn't be shocked to get to 82 or 83 here as well if the BD doesn't come and stop the skyrocketing temps. Hard to believe it's so warm in NH. I'm stuck at 61 in the valley, although climbing quickly. Low level morning fog really delayed the warmup, same as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 did anyone notice how the euro backed off on the big cooldown after day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 It's 46F on TOP of Mt Washington at this hour. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 LOL LWM is 76 now. Lets go for 80. 71 at BOS with light SSE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 This should not be happening..lol. PWM 70 with a 15kt NE wind. Granted that wind is not directly off the water...but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 LWM 76F. LOL. Ok...here goes...ctblizz ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 This should not be happening..lol. PWM 70 with a 15kt NE wind. Granted that wind is not directly off the water...but still. unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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