Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Suprised you havent mentioned the 12Z GFS Severe torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 it continues on D5...seems to be convective feedback inducing a vort max that bores it's way through the ridge SW of New England...This effectively stops the warm from ever getting here at least through D6... Not likely... snowlover76> It better be right!< snowlover76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Might be some BD action early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 not sure if it's reality or not, but it seems like every run of the euro keeps pushing the warmest day back. it's consistently after day 5. never really breaks inside that 5 day window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 not sure if it's reality or not, but it seems like every run of the euro keeps pushing the warmest day back. it's consistently after day 5. never really breaks inside that 5 day window i dunno - this run looks like BS with its generating a spurious vort max over nw PA, and the boring it through the ridge along the MA like that... That's the only reason for the retarded arrival... i doubt it is correct with that feature. Appears almost entirley convectively generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 i dunno - this run looks like BS with its generating a spurious vort max over nw PA, and the boring it through the ridge along the MA like that... That's the only reason for the retarded arrival... i doubt it is correct with that feature. Appears almost entirley convectively generated. yeah. it's also got the surface HP centered really far north. so you aren't really maximizing the available warmth in SNE. it ends up warmer w and actually n of SNE with that. this run doesn't end up with a clean warm look until thu or fri of next week. it would still be mild but not an inferno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
843wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Serious temperature gradient in the Mid-Atlantic today... PHL 56 IAD 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 i dunno - this run looks like BS with its generating a spurious vort max over nw PA, and the boring it through the ridge along the MA like that... That's the only reason for the retarded arrival... i doubt it is correct with that feature. Appears almost entirley convectively generated. I see what he is saying though. The 00z was a little delayed as compared to 12z yesterday. I wonder if that ULL out in the southern Plains is screwing around the pattern a bit. It's still mild, but the "big warmth" may be compressed and pushed back to Wed,Thurs, and even Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 yeah. it's also got the surface HP centered really far north. so you aren't really maximizing the available warmth in SNE. it ends up warmer w and actually n of SNE with that. this run doesn't end up with a clean warm look until thu or fri of next week. it would still be mild but not an inferno. Yeah you really need the high to the south this time of year to get good w-sw flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Serious temperature gradient in the Mid-Atlantic today... PHL 56 IAD 82. yeah we had that kind of spread up here yesterday - probably even in a shorter distance with BOS holding near 40F and HFD nearing 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah you really need the high to the south this time of year to get good w-sw flow. right exactly. it's still a warm look but some of the runs here and there have been a really almost perfect look for heating up SNE. others, like this one, don't really produce that look - or at least not until late week. i think it was mon's 12z run that was hinting that this coming mon/tue would be a torch with 70s/80s and i don't think that's happening anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 right exactly. it's still a warm look but some of the runs here and there have been a really almost perfect look for heating up SNE. others, like this one, don't really produce that look - or at least not until late week. i think it was mon's 12z run that was hinting that this coming mon/tue would be a torch with 70s/80s and i don't think that's happening anymore. and of course, a week ago it looked like fri/sat of this week would be very mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 LOL it's still in the upper 30s along the coast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 and of course, a week ago it looked like fri/sat of this week would be very mild. A little concerned that the big wamrth is only 1 day in ern areas. Just seems like BD or seabreeze could mute it for us. Maybe not, but something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Tomorrow could be quite blah. Certainly doesn't look like days and days of 70s and 80s. Seems to me many of us will be locked in the 40s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 BTW... look at the stream of low clouds that's forming off Gay Head on the Vineyard. It's been there for hours. Seems like just enough warming on the Vineyard from the sun to warm parcels up that get advected SW by the northeast flow over the cold water and the difference is enough to develop low clouds/fog. Really really cool. I can't attach the loop... but check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 I see what he is saying though. The 00z was a little delayed as compared to 12z yesterday. I wonder if that ULL out in the southern Plains is screwing around the pattern a bit. It's still mild, but the "big warmth" may be compressed and pushed back to Wed,Thurs, and even Friday. My point was ...however poorly conveyed, is that these runs are retarding it for different reasons - i.e., for me it appear more coincidental that the emegent result gives that appearance. I don't think these runs are right in there handling of tiny nuances in the flow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hard to go higher than mid 70s next week right now with the Euro looking like it does. Going 74/75/73/73 for BDL Mon-Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 BTW... look at the stream of low clouds that's forming off Gay Head on the Vineyard. It's been there for hours. Seems like just enough warming on the Vineyard from the sun to warm parcels up that get advected SW by the northeast flow over the cold water and the difference is enough to develop low clouds/fog. Really really cool. I can't attach the loop... but check it out. hmmmm. interesting. that's a different (not saying it's wrong at all) POV / thought process. i was thinking the sat was just a bit deceiving in placement and that cloud development was more a product of the flow coming across vineyard sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 hmmmm. interesting. that's a different (not saying it's wrong at all) POV / thought process. i was thinking the sat was just a bit deceiving in placement and that cloud development was more a product of the flow coming across vineyard sound. nude beach FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 hmmmm. interesting. that's a different (not saying it's wrong at all) POV / thought process. i was thinking the sat was just a bit deceiving in placement and that cloud development was more a product of the flow coming across vineyard sound. Yeah could be... not sure... it's definitely interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hard to go higher than mid 70s next week right now with the Euro looking like it does. Going 74/75/73/73 for BDL Mon-Thu. I'll take the over Wed/Thurs..in fact I'll take the WAAY over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Holy tornado Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah could be... not sure... it's definitely interesting though. you could totally be right. i'm not sure. it's a cool looking image though. you can also see a little s to n moving seabreeze front in S CT/SW RI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 A little concerned that the big wamrth is only 1 day in ern areas. Just seems like BD or seabreeze could mute it for us. Maybe not, but something to think about. it's tough within 15 miles of the shores... The gradient has to be off-shore... Can't have a light amorphous flow or it will turn onshore relentlessly at this time of year. strict requirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 BTW... look at the stream of low clouds that's forming off Gay Head on the Vineyard. It's been there for hours. Seems like just enough warming on the Vineyard from the sun to warm parcels up that get advected SW by the northeast flow over the cold water and the difference is enough to develop low clouds/fog. Really really cool. I can't attach the loop... but check it out. I like the convective cluster up stream in NY that threatens to swoop down and blow your AFD in CT - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 A little sun trying to peak out...temp up to 44 here. My fear came true today as the onshore flow held the clouds really tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 A little sun trying to peak out...temp up to 44 here. My fear came true today as the onshore flow held the clouds really tough. nah. 70s and 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I like the convective cluster up stream in NY that threatens to swoop down and blow your AFD in CT - haha I have showers in the forecast Showalter index around 0 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I'll take the over Wed/Thurs..in fact I'll take the WAAY over Certainly wouldn't surprise me to have a 73 become an 85. But there's a whole lot that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.