CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 It really is a tough call Monday and Tuesday. Monday will be nice in CT and RI, but BDF may push into that area Monday Night. Tuesday may takes its sweet time warming up all areas, but especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 well...whatever next week brings ...today is being completely violated without the courtesy of a reach around by trapping phenomenon. BD delivers 4 days ago.... cause of BD is no where on the map. Air mass plagues and lingers because full synoptic changes are completely disconnected by the air mass stuck beneath inversion. Pretty ruined Saturday and busted MOS unless the sun can do it all alone. But it's nearing noon and hi res vis imagery shows the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 So...I'm assuming you guys saw the 1888'er on the Euro... christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 So...I'm assuming you guys saw the 1888'er on the Euro... christ. Yes, AIT. Pointed it out earlier but everyone seems to be drunk with the prospect of early Spring. Suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 So...I'm assuming you guys saw the 1888'er on the Euro... christ. It's interesting but I'm assuming it's on the op alone as the ensembles don't have it unless I'm reading it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 It's interesting but I'm assuming it's on the op alone as the ensembles don't have it unless I'm reading it wrong? Certainly a less amp 500mb orientation/evolution - but the lat/lon of events are the same. The last several cycles of the Euro have been biting onto the lesser correlated notion of ejecting the SW closed low out sooner and more progressively. Now, ...normally I' would be dis-inclined to agree with a the lesser correlated notion; global models ALL tend to eject closed features out of the SW prematurely. But what makes this - maybe - different is that we have been plagued with progressive corrections, almost as a perfunctory necessity at that, with regard to middle and extended range events as they are depicted in the runs. It's been a seasonal characterisic about the 2011-2012 "winter" - if you want to call it that. I've mused in the past that the last 375 days have been, Spring -Summmer -Autumn -Autumn -now early Spring. Sarcasm aside ... giving a nod to the notion of having to correct toward progressivity because there has been this proverbial tack hammer to the cranium, attempting crack through the skull of a 100+ years of observed climatology in order to prove that lesser correlated solution don't mean 0 correlated solutions ... eh, yeah, it's possible that the S/W feature somehow gets booted en masse. Even if it did, though, it does seem odd that the Euro cluster overall then blithely erodes/carves it through the eastern heights of the large scale synoptic positive anomaly that is well established. On the flip side of that ... I have never been altogether hugely impressed with this ridge. It's built from the S-N, with the global models being really iffy on whether there will be a bona fide node N of 35N. What that means is that the middle to northern latitudes of this ridge are "compressible", meaning, less resistant to "carving" scenarios. So a trough incursion through the lower OV and upon the MA is possible given the appropriately strong dynamics. What the Euro does, it uses the ejected SW system to induce a bit of N stream involvement, and the phase results... At the end of the day, the 2 obviously glaring factors that erode any determinism here are 1) ...no other the guidance that I have seen, agrees, but more importantly 2) the Euro hasn't verified one event beyond D5 this year that I am aware off. Having said all that, I was sort of in Will and Scotts camp that it will/would turn colder toward month's end, because there are other indicators out there that I have also discussed earlier in this thread. Don't want to labor through those concepts all over again.... Those indicators are more or less still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 49/44, no 60s today AMOUT. Hopefully the euro pulls off a miracle for day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Here's a question for snowman21: Has any location's minimum temperature broken a record high temperature for a given day? Yes it has happened, and a lot more often than you might think. Here's a list of the ones I could find in New England. As usual had to filter obvious bad data points and chose cases where the period of record at the time the record was broken was at least 40 years. RHI is the record high temperature as of the date. ST ID STATION DATE LO RHI -- ----- ---------------------- ---------- -- --- CT BDL HARTFORD 1995-01-16 53 52 CT HFD HARTFORD BRAINARD FLD 1995-01-16 55 54 CT NFKC3 NORFOLK 2 SW 1995-01-16 53 50 CT NWPC3 SHEPAUG DAM 1990-12-24 55 52 MA NZW SOUTH WEYMOUTH NAS 1995-01-16 58 51 MA ORH WORCESTER 1995-01-16 54 50 MA TAUM3 TAUNTON 1934-12-01 60 59 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 2010-04-03 44 42 NH EPPN3 EPPING 2007-01-06 48 45 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 2005-02-06 32 31 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1998-03-31 44 43 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1998-01-08 35 32 NH CON CONCORD ASOS 1995-01-16 54 53 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1995-01-16 40 37 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1995-01-15 36 34 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1990-03-16 44 40 VT BTV BURLINGTON WSO AP 2008-01-08 49 45 VT MMNV1 MT MANSFIELD 2008-01-08 40 34 VT MMNV1 MT MANSFIELD 2005-02-07 35 34 VT CWLV1 CORNWALL 1995-01-17 50 48 VT BLFV1 BELLOWS FALLS 1995-01-16 51 48 VT RDSV1 READSBORO 1 SE 1995-01-16 55 51 VT 1V4 SAINT JOHNSBURY 1995-01-16 56 54 VT WEBV1 WEST BURKE 1995-01-16 48 46 VT BTV BURLINGTON WSO AP 1995-01-15 58 46 VT CWLV1 CORNWALL 1995-01-15 58 57 VT MPV MONTPELIER AP 1995-01-15 49 45 VT MPV MONTPELIER AP 1990-03-17 48 47 VT CWLV1 CORNWALL 1984-11-29 60 59 VT BTV BURLINGTON WSO AP 1981-02-20 50 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 49/44, no 60s today AMOUT. Hopefully the euro pulls off a miracle for day 8. The fact that there is no 60 is no victory... This is a puke air mass stuck in the lowest 150mb of the atmosphere, and is also at this point nearing beta-meso scale in size at that, and bears no reflection on the actual pattern at large. It's an imby condition that is unfortunately for those that want a nice Saturday for outdoor activities, quite personalized in attacking specifically that expectation. Drive about 70 miles in any direct, save E, and you end up in the sun with temps soaring through the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 Here, this is how localized your Saturday in SNE is being seemingly and deliberately destroyed by some impish metaphasm ... http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/New_England/current/New_England.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Tip is on a roll today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Yes it has happened, and a lot more often than you might think. Here's a list of the ones I could find in New England. As usual had to filter obvious bad data points and chose cases where the period of record at the time the record was broken was at least 40 years. RHI is the record high temperature as of the date. K ST ID STATION DATE LO RHI -- ----- ---------------------- ---------- -- --- CT BDL HARTFORD 1995-01-16 53 52 CT HFD HARTFORD BRAINARD FLD 1995-01-16 55 54 CT NFKC3 NORFOLK 2 SW 1995-01-16 53 50 CT NWPC3 SHEPAUG DAM 1990-12-24 55 52 MA NZW SOUTH WEYMOUTH NAS 1995-01-16 58 51 MA ORH WORCESTER 1995-01-16 54 50 MA TAUM3 TAUNTON 1934-12-01 60 59 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 2010-04-03 44 42 NH EPPN3 EPPING 2007-01-06 48 45 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 2005-02-06 32 31 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1998-03-31 44 43 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1998-01-08 35 32 NH CON CONCORD ASOS 1995-01-16 54 53 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1995-01-16 40 37 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1995-01-15 36 34 NH MWN MT WASHINGTON 1990-03-16 44 40 VT BTV BURLINGTON WSO AP 2008-01-08 49 45 VT MMNV1 MT MANSFIELD 2008-01-08 40 34 VT MMNV1 MT MANSFIELD 2005-02-07 35 34 VT CWLV1 CORNWALL 1995-01-17 50 48 VT BLFV1 BELLOWS FALLS 1995-01-16 51 48 VT RDSV1 READSBORO 1 SE 1995-01-16 55 51 VT 1V4 SAINT JOHNSBURY 1995-01-16 56 54 VT WEBV1 WEST BURKE 1995-01-16 48 46 VT BTV BURLINGTON WSO AP 1995-01-15 58 46 VT CWLV1 CORNWALL 1995-01-15 58 57 VT MPV MONTPELIER AP 1995-01-15 49 45 VT MPV MONTPELIER AP 1990-03-17 48 47 VT CWLV1 CORNWALL 1984-11-29 60 59 VT BTV BURLINGTON WSO AP 1981-02-20 50 49 Awesome! Thanks Still looks like its only happened once at most first order stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 1/16/95 looks like it was quite the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Sunday looks amazing. Monday is interesting...12z nam goes from low-mid 70s at 18z Monday to 50s by 21z and low 40s by 00z. GFS is similar but not quite so dramatic. BOS briefly peeks in the upper 60s before noon before the dive into the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 It depends... The 700mb levels don't really support the typical "pile up" air mass over the GOM that typically, immediately precedes a BD passage - talking Monday, that is... The NAM could be overdoing that some. But, the other thing to consider is that the boundary layer temperature differential between BED and about 20 miles E of Cape Ann is going to be excessive for a time nearing mid day on Monday. It will by 70F or more in the former, and about 40 in the latter do to cold ocean. That will mean a huge density discontinuity that will want to restore westward at lowest levels, regardless of whether there are BD kinematics generating a driller or not. It's like a mini, local Hadley cell, where generalized buoyant air over land gets replaced by positively statically stable death of energy breath from the ocean. With light gradient in place, something slightly more than mere flag wobbling from the E is going to penetrate some 10 even 20 miles inland without a BD, I believe. What's the difference if you are in Cambridge, Beverly ...even Arlington and Reading .. that would mute the warmth an make one instantly envious of the 77F, heavily busted high out in FIT-HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Still sitting in heavy cloud cover and stuck at 47F...projected high of 55F may be in jeopardy. Tomorrow looks much warmer however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 50 still overcast, was hoping for some warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 Still sitting in heavy cloud cover and stuck at 47F...projected high of 55F may be in jeopardy. Tomorrow looks much warmer however. I am almost wondering if tonight sees temperature steady or even rising some, as this current "bubble high" - as they are coined - settles into the predominant ridge signaled SE of the area, and the winds finally come around to the SW this evening. The cloud mass that is "trapped" here is here because the high came in with subsidence and is limiting vertical mixing. It's also a negative feed-back of sorts that at this Equinox time of year, the sun is still slightly oblate in angle, and the cloud mass "protects" its self by albedo. It's quite frustrating for those that looked forward to a milder, sunnier Saturday, because these are petty physics teaming up to keep specifically SE VT/S NH and Mass is the mirk. If you loop your hi res vis imagery ...that should more than cover it. A fantasy of mine is a 5 miles tall by 100 mile wide bank of fans turns on high - ahaha Anyway, this high slips SE and the return flow will pull that sun baked PA/NY air mass back toward the coast - almost a diffused warm boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 My forecast this week is on average warmer then DC. And WOW at these lows. Borderline take out the fans wx. Just crazy...my average low is 56 in early-mid June... Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 My forecast this week is on average warmer then DC. And WOW at these lows. Borderline take out the fans wx. Just crazy...my average low is 56 in early-mid June... Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Holy Jesus, that is bad. The warmest I will be getting is 65 MAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 How are people complaining right now? So what if it isn't 60's or 70f? It's March 17th lol...I'll gladly take upper 40's or 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Here's my take on the short term for Boston as i need to be working practically at waters edge Monday. Sea breeze Monday around 1 drops it from 76 to low 60s..settling to around 53 by sunset and the 40s overnight. Tuesday is the big question mark. GFS implies west winds and temps rocketing back up Tuesday on next week but I think it is probably too fast with that and the torch may be delayed a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Man, the cold the EURO crashes down over us for the end of the month is going to hurt. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 How are people complaining right now? So what if it isn't 60's or 70f? It's March 17th lol...I'll gladly take upper 40's or 50s. Hey Wiz are you goin to the Falcons-Whale game tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Hey Wiz are you goin to the Falcons-Whale game tonight ? Oh absolutely I'll be headed to the bar as soon as the Bruins game ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 60 on the nose here under partly to mostly sunny skies. Just finished washing the car--takes alot longer with 2 three year olds "helping" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Glorious, sunny St. Patties day here. Crystal clear blue skies and pleasant temperatures in the 50s. Sorry those of you on the other side of the 2K+ cordillera are stuck in the murk. It looks like it is slowly eroding away, but the day will be done by the time it really has a chance to clear out. Amazing how these low-level marine airmasses rarely make it out here, and when they do, usually they mix out or erode away rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 WOW sunny skies 61 degrees! Oh yeah! Erin go Bragh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 western ct en fuego!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Spring in eastern MA. No matter hw warm it is it's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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