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The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread, Part II


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As predicted yesterday... the day's mirk and chill is completely biasing the tempo of the posting toward sarcasm and disrespect to the fact that we are embedded in an overall warm regime ...one that will prove as such over the next 5 days.

Don't rush things ...

It's gonna be warm for a time no doubt. It's just funny how these last few days have sort of been brushed under the carpet by many.

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It's been warm for 1/2 a year.

a couple of days of cold doesn't change that, nor will a week or two of cold as we turn into April.

I don't think anybody said it would. These last few days have been one hell of a bump in the road for people thinking of days and days of 70s. BD fronts never leave quickly.

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I will, hey I am playing in a league this year in Thompson, CT. Hopefully they get a twister while I am there.

Nice!! That's excellent. The snow has finally melted off the green in Plymouth, and the mud is drying up a little. There will be significant frisbee convergence after spring break

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It's been warm for 1/2 a year.

a couple of days of cold doesn't change that, nor will a week or two of cold as we turn into April.

Also, it's been said before, but I think it needs to be said again to keep things in perspective....

"cold" with this BDF is actually just bringing us to seasonal normal for lots of eastern Mass... normal highs for Boston this past week are 44-46F

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I don't think anybody said it would. These last few days have been one hell of a bump in the road for people thinking of days and days of 70s. BD fronts never leave quickly.

I know what you're saying but it's 45/46 here. The best this winter has been able to deliver is a couple of days near seasonal or slightly below before torching. I really don't see the BD front as a big deal.

The fact that we're talking about bd fronts in early to mid March instead of later April and May only speaks to how whacked this climate has been.

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Looking around the area obs from Maine to NYC. This is a pretty classic example of having a mirky chill trapped east of the cordillera, and west of the dense oceanic boundary layer.

There is 0 impetus to remove it at the moment. The gradient being S is actually blowing in more refitting puke because of the cold ocean S of LI. The sun is also powerless to mix it out diabatically becaue these plaguing MCS remnant mid and upper level strata rainers are blocking it out. Just the absolute pith of misery. Those that think this is somehow a revenge against the warm thinkers, you don't get to win with that call because this cold is petty and meaningless - you wouldn't get snow in this scenario. It would be impossible. And 3 days ago, you weren't even certain this BD stuff would happen. It's almost lucky and accidental.

I tell you what - if I had my druthers, I'd have my private plane primed and ready to leave on a moment's realization that the atmosphere is scheming to do this to us. Go to that second home where it's 80/60 with CBs on the horizon.

It's just an idiosyncratic nuace of New England's topography/geographical features, with a cold ocean adjacently by and mountains west, that an air mass can plow in from the NE and get "trapped" - for lack of better word. The culprit set up in causing the backdoor long gone, but the damage just plagues on because of this trapping phenomenon. In the passed I have actually witness as many as 3, full-scaled synoptic evolutions across a 7 day span glide over top of this type of trapped cold mirk, and all three were incapable of mixing this out.

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Am I missing something, yesterday and today were always supposed to be cool, at least that was the forecast from okx going back to monday? Weekend looks fantastic, upper 50s to near 60 with sun, and next week is may/june climo in March.

45

overcast, this "normal" weather the last two days will really make then next 7 so much more appreciated.

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Am I missing something, yesterday and today were always supposed to be cool, at least that was the forecast from okx going back to monday? Weekend looks fantastic, upper 50s to near 60 with sun, and next week is may/june climo in March.

45

overcast, this "normal" weather the last two days will really make then next 7 so much more appreciated.

Not this bad... But... yes, cooler.

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I know what you're saying but it's 45/46 here.  The best this winter has been able to deliver is a couple of days near seasonal or slightly below before torching.  I really don't see the BD front as a big deal.

The fact that we're talking about bd fronts in early to mid March instead of later April and May only speaks to how whacked this climate has been.

Your quote " the warmer SSTs will mean less effect from backdoor fronts"

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Am I missing something, yesterday and today were always supposed to be cool, at least that was the forecast from okx going back to monday? Weekend looks fantastic, upper 50s to near 60 with sun, and next week is may/june climo in March.

45

overcast, this "normal" weather the last two days will really make then next 7 so much more appreciated.

for you dude, some folks in EMA who thought and said they would be sunbathing this weekend might have a major wakeup. Being 150 miles from East facing open ocean protects you.

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for you dude, some folks in EMA who thought and said they would be sunbathing this weekend might have a major wakeup. Being 150 miles from East facing open ocean protects you.

Who said that in eastern mass? I recall Will and Scooter outlining almost a week ago that st pattys day might not be all that warm in coastal locations.

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I know what you're saying but it's 45/46 here. The best this winter has been able to deliver is a couple of days near seasonal or slightly below before torching. I really don't see the BD front as a big deal.

The fact that we're talking about bd fronts in early to mid March instead of later April and May only speaks to how whacked this climate has been.

Again, it's not the cold. It's the fact that these little BD fronts always ruin the party.

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Euro looks like no record warmth to me

What's fascinating about that/this run is that it appears more and more as though the same progressivity to the flow that has plagued and sacked trough placement accuracies all winter long is having the same effect on ridges, too.

Let's think about this.. .When this warm vision first came in 5 days ago, it was pretty heavily agreed upon as a having a ridge axis near CLE, Ohio - ever since it has been bumped east like 100 n miles or so... Now it is off shore New England. That closed low is now opening up as a negative tilted trough, carving straight through during the time when the heat was originally going to max out.

It does appear to be mild on this run, but this is a hell's cry different from anything suggested originally.

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What's fascinating about that/this run is that it appears more and more as though the same progressivity to the flow that has plagued and sacked trough placement accuracies all winter long is having the same effect on ridges, too.

Let's think about this.. .When this warm vision first came in 5 days ago, it was pretty heavily agreed upon as a having a ridge axis near CLE, Ohio - ever since it has been bumped east like 100 n miles or so... Now it is off shore New England. That closed low is now opening up as a negative tilted trough, carving straight through during the time when the heat was originally going to max out.

It does appear to be mild on this run, but this is a hell's cry different from anything suggested originally.

That cutoff is causing problems. Flow becomes too meridional for real good continental warm air. It will be very mild to warm, but yeah..no those insane temps that were progged about 3-5 days ago. Montreal FTW.

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That cutoff is causing problems. Flow becomes too meridional for real good continental warm air. It will be very mild to warm, but yeah..no those insane temps that were progged about 3-5 days ago. Montreal FTW.

Exactly

We wind up with a very muted warm signal for March. In July/August this wouldn't be record warmth... it would be a stagnant and increasingly humid airmass.

I think 80s will be hard to reach in most locations. Upper 60s/low 70s the rule for the most part.

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That cutoff is causing problems. Flow becomes too meridional for real good continental warm air. It will be very mild to warm, but yeah..no those insane temps that were progged about 3-5 days ago. Montreal FTW.

SkiMRGs hair is slowly falling out to accommodate the warm.. hahaha...

I bet he's crying to his mama right now.

I bet he's skiing on the dark brown parking lot plow type snow right now.

Hey skiMRG how come no pictures of cold street today???

I love global warming.

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Exactly

We wind up with a very muted warm signal for March. In July/August this wouldn't be record warmth... it would be a stagnant and increasingly humid airmass.

I think 80s will be hard to reach in most locations. Upper 60s/low 70s the rule for the most part.

I will take that in March, 20-30 degrees above normal, not bad.

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