Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hi all, we've been discussing this somewhat in the latter pages of the nearing 50 pager. There are some subtle yet emerging signals that we may turn colder, winterlike not impossible, at the close of this month and heading into the first week of April. Others have heen been discussing this as well. The overnight teleconnectors from both the CPC and CDC came in with considerablydownward moving EPO numbers, as well as the NAO to some lesser obvious degree. For those hoping for a last hurrah, it's the best sign you've got for the time being. By the way, regarding the preceding warm signal on-going and next week. Firstly, this backdoor wedgy we're getting shouldn't really be considered much of a break. Do to it's locarl spatial scale ...it's really a "dent" considering the NE sector as a whole. Anyway, philosophy aside, the 00z operational Euro appears to be a slightly cooler outlier compared to the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just made this post in the last thread, so I wanted to just copy it over here... Pretty good support coming together for a -NAO tendency developing by the end of the month. Anyone notice the insane positive AAM tendencies in the last few days? Combination of strong frictional torque in the tropics fighting the intensified circumglobal subtropical ridging, and recent E Asia mountain torque associated with the MJO wave. This MJO wave should survive well into the western Pacific and toward the dateline ... maybe in a fashion that this same wave didn't quite accomplish back in the middle of February (the phase space projection was a bit of an artifact). Anyway, it looks like we will be breaking down La Nina characteristics of the pattern by early April. In addition, we will be looking for the final stratospheric warming around that time (notice the warming getting primed up around 1hPa). Throw in the global long wave number four pattern taking over, and we have the recipe for 1) a significant pattern disruption, and 2) horrible model agreement / verification. Interesting times ahead for sure. And the threat for significant wintry events is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just made this post in the last thread, so I wanted to just copy it over here... Pretty good support coming together for a -NAO tendency developing by the end of the month. Anyone notice the insane positive AAM tendencies in the last few days? Combination of strong frictional torque in the tropics fighting the intensified circumglobal subtropical ridging, and recent E Asia mountain torque associated with the MJO wave. This MJO wave should survive well into the western Pacific and toward the dateline ... maybe in a fashion that this same wave didn't quite accomplish back in the middle of February (the phase space projection was a bit of an artifact). Anyway, it looks like we will be breaking down La Nina characteristics of the pattern by early April. In addition, we will be looking for the final stratospheric warming around that time (notice the warming getting primed up around 1hPa). Throw in the global long wave number four pattern taking over, and we have the recipe for 1) a significant pattern disruption, and 2) horrible model agreement / verification. Interesting times ahead for sure. And the threat for significant wintry events is far from over It's a good point about the MJO, but I'm a little peevish on the MJO "ability" to exert on the field for wave spaces that are Western Pac--> Dateline, do to the deconstructive vs constructive superposition against the background ENSO state. By the way...in a somewhat unrelated matter, there is a eastward diving Kelvin wave so perhaps the SST distribution changes heading into summer. Back to the regularly scheduled program ... We saw a whopper 7-8-1 translation appeal zippo on the overal circulation from Hawaii to Greenland; contrasting, we saw a similar magnitude 4-5-6 (on-going), and it's hell hath no fiery like an MJO in Phase 4 on this damn pattern. NCEP also mentioned in an Extended FD about the current ENSO being in constructive wave interference with the Marine subcontinent phase spaces. The idea has merit. But ...as Scott has adroitly pointed out as of late, as the month ends and we head into April, the seasonally changing R- numbers might flip the script on the MJO correlation some; or at least disrupt it enough to enter some uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just made this post in the last thread, so I wanted to just copy it over here... Pretty good support coming together for a -NAO tendency developing by the end of the month. Anyone notice the insane positive AAM tendencies in the last few days? Combination of strong frictional torque in the tropics fighting the intensified circumglobal subtropical ridging, and recent E Asia mountain torque associated with the MJO wave. This MJO wave should survive well into the western Pacific and toward the dateline ... maybe in a fashion that this same wave didn't quite accomplish back in the middle of February (the phase space projection was a bit of an artifact). Anyway, it looks like we will be breaking down La Nina characteristics of the pattern by early April. In addition, we will be looking for the final stratospheric warming around that time (notice the warming getting primed up around 1hPa). Throw in the global long wave number four pattern taking over, and we have the recipe for 1) a significant pattern disruption, and 2) horrible model agreement / verification. Interesting times ahead for sure. And the threat for significant wintry events is far from over lets see what ski resorts can hang on thru the end of march.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Lock in GFS day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Scott, sun's a-commin' out here in Westborough... Still a NE drift observed - chilly. But this should begin the erosion process... Sun is potent enough that it'll add radiation now and start thermodynamically mixing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 It's this time of year that visible satellite loops are the coolest things in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hi all, we've been discussing this somewhat in the latter pages of the nearing 50 pager. There are some subtle yet emerging signals that we may turn colder, winterlike not impossible, at the close of this month and heading into the first week of April. Others have heen been discussing this as well. The overnight teleconnectors from both the CPC and CDC came in with considerablydownward moving EPO numbers, as well as the NAO to some lesser obvious degree. For those hoping for a last hurrah, it's the best sign you've got for the time being. By the way, regarding the preceding warm signal on-going and next week. Firstly, this backdoor wedgy we're getting shouldn't really be considered much of a break. Do to it's locarl spatial scale ...it's really a "dent" considering the NE sector as a whole. Anyway, philosophy aside, the 00z operational Euro appears to be a slightly cooler outlier compared to the mean. My question is, at what point do these cold teleconnectors change/flip around with the shortening wavelenths?? also, to what affect does the SE Canada snow-slaughtering airmass of the upcoming week mitigate our chances of getting appreciably cold airmasses into New England come april? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Most of us thought these clouds would burn off late morning and lo and behold they are..nice afternoon for many with temps nearing 60 by mid-late aftenoon. This MORCH takes no prisoners..even with a backdoor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Most of us thought these clouds would burn off late morning and lo and behold they are..nice afternoon for many with temps nearing 60 by mid-late aftenoon. This MORCH takes no prisoners..even with a backdoor I think 60 is a stretch. 50s will do it. AWT. Some remote tarmac may come close to 60, but as a whole..downslope inland areas like you and BDL will be in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think 60 is a stretch. 50s will do it. AWT. Some remote tarmac may come close to 60, but as a whole..downslope inland areas like you and BDL will be in the 50s. What happened to your locked in with clouds from dawn to dusk and 40's forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 What happened to your locked in with clouds from dawn to dusk and 40's forecast? For these parts, not for downslope land. This is a rather dry airmass. No high dews aloft or at the surface to lock in fog. Fog was never the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 It's this time of year that visible satellite loops are the coolest things in the world. Bravo, and agreed! There are some aspects to this that can be really interesting to observe. I'm sick...I know that, but yesterday, going from 67 to 42 in Westborough in about 20 min or less when that BD arrived ranks up in the top 5 snap back events for me, actually. 25F almost immediately... Pretty sick. That was really amazing.. Now, with the high res sat imagery as you've point out, there are other aspects too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 For these parts, not for downslope land. This is a rather dry airmass. No high dews aloft or at the surface to lock in fog. Fog was never the issue. Well it's safe to say I think that I handled the forecast mighty fine for interior areas today. I receive an A++ today..No question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 For these parts, not for downslope land. This is a rather dry airmass. No high dews aloft or at the surface to lock in fog. Fog was never the issue. Direct question Scott. Is the air mass next week a dry low DP air mass? What would you say DPs are for the max heating days, any wind to speak of? Couple reasons I ask, fire danger down here and potential low temps on clear dry nights radiating off of snow areas in the MTs. Thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well it's safe to say I think that I handled the forecast mighty fine for interior areas today. I receive an A++ today..No question Yeah looks like widespread 70s-80s for days and days. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well it's safe to say I think that I handled the forecast mighty fine for interior areas today. I receive an A++ today..No question and a star from the teacher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Direct question Scott. Is the air mass next week a dry low DP air mass? What would you say DPs are for the max heating days, any wind to speak of? Couple reasons I ask, fire danger down here and potential low temps on clear dry nights radiating off of snow areas in the MTs. Thanks bro I think by Wednesday and Thursday dews will creep up a bit, but remain under 60. If there is good news in that dept, I don't see very strong winds at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 My question is, at what point do these cold teleconnectors change/flip around with the shortening wavelenths?? also, to what affect does the SE Canada snow-slaughtering airmass of the upcoming week mitigate our chances of getting appreciably cold airmasses into New England come april? All good questions... The question as to the wave-lengths in the means (seasonal shrinkage), is uber complex. The problem is ... it's relative to both the daily mean of that differential process, as well as the native hemispheric character ...simultaneously. Long words for: Some times the correlations will be more or less effectively indicative of tendencies, depending on either of those in situ natures. The cryosphere would be less concern for impeding warmth for me, because if we find our selves quasi-locked in with some kind of deep layer cT air flow, the source/origin of the dragon's breath isn't contaminated by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Direct question Scott. Is the air mass next week a dry low DP air mass? What would you say DPs are for the max heating days, any wind to speak of? Couple reasons I ask, fire danger down here and potential low temps on clear dry nights radiating off of snow areas in the MTs. Thanks bro We'll issue RF watches now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah looks like widespread 70s-80s for days and days. Good job. Yep - today included. Amazing foresight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think by Wednesday and Thursday dews will creep up a bit, but remain under 60. If there is good news in that dept, I don't see very strong winds at the moment. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 All good questions... The question as to the wave-lengths in the means (seasonal shrinkage), is uber complex. The problem is ... it's relative to both the daily mean of that differential process, as well as the native hemispheric character ...simultaneously. Long words for: Some times the correlations will be more or less effectively indicative of tendencies, depending on either of those in situ natures. The cryosphere would be less concern for impeding warmth for me, because if we find our selves quasi-locked in with some kind of deep layer cT air flow, the source/origin of the dragon's breath isn't contaminated by that. Man I hate seasonal shrinkage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Most of us thought these clouds would burn off late morning and lo and behold they are..nice afternoon for many with temps nearing 60 by mid-late aftenoon. This MORCH takes no prisoners..even with a backdoor congrats. It's 36F and holding in Plymouth,NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Man I hate seasonal shrinkage LMAO! hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 congrats. It's 36F and holding in Plymouth,NH Happy birthday Sammy. 21 today.. Will you rip back 21 brews tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 not sure what the worth is, but the DGEX from 06z had highs between 70-80 every day next week for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 not sure what the worth is, but the DGEX from 06z had high between 70-80 every day next week for everyone. Well it's certainly worth this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well it's certainly worth this Seriously, I don't know much about that model's verification scores - does anyone know? I don't think it's on NCEP's page - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Classic Vis right now. Upslope areas of the Berks and ORH hills in clouds. CT valley in the sun. This is one of those airmasses that won't warm too much. Very shallow mixing level it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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