Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, not much on the Euro, but disorganized fruity action on the GFS

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

[Srain]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

423 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS RAN CLOSER TO NAM MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS

YESTERDAY. 15/00Z MOS RUNS FROM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS

AGAIN WARMER THAN GFS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER

TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY TRANSMIT

ANOTHER AFD THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE FINAL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OR

CHECK THE LASTEST CCFHGX. HAVING SAID THAT NAM MOS PROVIDED BETTER

TEMP FORECASTS YESTERDAY THE WINNER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WAS THE

GFS WITH BETTER FORECAST OF CAP AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND AS

WELL. SMALL WINDOW GENERALLY FROM 21Z TO APPROXIMATELY 01Z FOR

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. FCST PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND

WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE 90F AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS

IS POSSIBLE AS NOTED BY SPC. ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. GFS

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP A LITTLE MORE BREAKABLE TOMORROW SO

UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY.

LONGER RANGE BEGINNING TO LOOK WET. WEAKNESS/EASTERLY WAVE ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF THE MEAN SFC-700MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE TOWARDS SE TEXAS. WEAK UPPER TROF AT

500-250MB REMAINS CLOSE BY AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE SFC FEATURE PWATS

CLIMB AND SE TX IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LIFT SO 30/40 PERCENT

POPS SEEM PRUDENT. BOTH GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS RAISE POPS

FURTHER FOR MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FROM

POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL WAY TOO

EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL

TOO FAR OUT (LATE NEXT WEEK!) TO FINE TUNE TIMING OR LOCATIONS SO

BROAD BRUSH APPROACH SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. GFS RAISES PWAT VALUES

TREMENDOUSLY WHILE ECMWF IS MORE RESTRAINED. WENT GENERALLY WITH A

2 PARTS ECM AND 1 PART GFS BLEND IN THE EXTENDED.

[Ed Lizard]

Rain of the non-windshield breaking variety near the Metroplex, and SETX in a 'SEE TEXT'. Gave the sprinkler the day off yesterday, but unless we get lucky today, the month old Bermuda, which is growing, gets watered today.

Cell towards Humble beautiful, yet odd yesterday around 5 pm. Tilted maybe 10 to 20º from base to anvil. Anvil itself not that large. A skinny, tilted tower. Prettier visually than when I checked radar at home.

Tend to trust the Euro over the GFS, but maybe a disoranzed system fairly far South into Mexico can still throw a good SE deep layer flow in SETX, sort of hinted at by NWS HGX. GFS obviously better for the lawns, and 6Z GFS landfalls just South of BRO, but I'll go with my amateur impression Euro more reliable.

[Srain]

Some more immediate attention turns to just offshore of Ft Walton Beach, FL. This is part of the easterly wave that extends along a trough S of New Orleans. The Bermuda Ridge is strengthening to its NE and that feature will push W along the Gulf Coast. What is a bit interesting is Alicia 83' formed in a somewhat similar fashion. At this time not much if any development is expected, but it is noteworthy that these type quick spin ups are not uncommon and will increase our rain chances later this weekend into next early next week.

[DoctorMu]

What we are getting are remnants of a backdoor front that plunged south on the East Coast and contributing to trough development. Dew points in the 50s w/ NE winds for mid June in NC and even NE winds and lower humidity in Gainesville FL! Nice view on the Conus WV loop. This should stir up a nice gumbo stew of convection in the Gulf and swing towards the TX Coast. Do the wave.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Thx to potter for the kewl windmap - another nice view

http://hint.fm/wind/

[Ian]

supposedly the dallas hail storm might have caused 2 billion in insured damage .. would be one of the highest non hurricane costs on record

[Ian]

apparently that number might be bunk

[Srain]

[Ed Lizard]

^^That Canadian is weird, and really, if it isn't a Cat 5 hititng a city of a million or more population, well, I tend not to post it. Looping PSU e-Wall 4 panel of CMC is looks like vorticity near Columbia is the main player, and absorbs what is left of Carlotta.

GFS ensembles are close to, but generally just a smidge South of GFS landfall in far Northern Tamaulipas, Euro ensemble means are very, very close to Euro operational. Since disturbance/TD/maybe TS Chris doesn't look mega-organized, sure, it is a week out, but I'm glass half full optimistic on further rain for my lawn, even with the likely center of whatever develops landfalling way down in Old Mexico. Unlikely, but as a silver lining guy, not ruling out the stronger LOLgaps option of a stronger storm hitting MMMA.

[Srain]

The forecast remains unchanged today. Guidance suggest the inverted trough/upper air disturbance will slowly meander W form SE of Mobile, AL along the Gulf Coastal waters to near SW LA/SE TX on Monday. Increase tropical moisture will follow that feature as it continues slide inland along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast on Tuesday. Most of the ‘activity' is on the E side of that feature where the deeper moisture will reside, so showers/storm will be on the up tick beginning late Sunday and into Tuesday mainly along our Coastal Counties and slowly spreading inland Monday and Tuesday of next week.

HPC:

...CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST...

MODELS INITIALLY AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF THE TAIL END OF THE

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE

GULF...SEPARATING AND SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST TOWARD THE TX COAST SUN

NIGHT INTO MON. THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPS A RELATIVELY STRONG SFC

REFLECTION AND BRINGS IT INTO THE UPPER TX COAST...BUT WAS IGNORED

DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THE REMAINING MODELS. HPC FOLLOWED THE

IDEA OF A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST...SIMILAR TO THE

GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CMC...WITH AN UPPER LOW SETTLING NEAR BRO BY TUE

MORNING AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE LOWER SRN

PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY

ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO

LOUISIANA. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 KT TOWARD THE NNW WITH

MAINLY WEAK...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FCST FROM THE SSE.

The next item on the agenda will be the disturbed weather/broad low pressure system the models have been ‘sniffing’ for days in the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Wave axis moved off the Yucatan overnight into the Bay of Campeche and will continue to spread NW toward the Mexican Gulf Coast. Moisture from former Hurricane Carlotta has spread over the mountains in the mid to upper levels while deep tropical moisture works NW from the Western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf. The monsoonal trough has lifted N with Carlotta and some vorticity in the mid levels will spread E in the light Westerly flow from the Pacific. The guidance generally agree that a broad low pressure will form near Vera Cruz and slowly meander N along Gulf Coast Mexico toward South Texas and long fetch E and SE flow of the Gulf will be located on the E side of that developing broad low pressure. We will continue to monitor future guidance for changes or any potential strengthening or consolidation of that surface low which would tend to draw moisture closer to any circulation center. My hunch is that this area of disturbed weather will never full tighten up and will remain broad in nature and provide a good shot at some increased rainfall for Coastal Texas and Louisiana. We will see.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, we're seeing some easterly flow in the Gulf now. With potentially 2 weak systems of interest off FL and in the Bay of Campeche, lawns could be watered on the Western Gulf Coast

[Ed Lizard]

New 0Z GFS makes more sense based on 500 mb forecasts of ridgin over the Central US, into Nothern Mexico, and as can be seen on TPW loop, and shown on GFS (and analyzed on CIMSS site) main "seedling" isn't Carlotta., rather what is left of Carlotta gets pulled in and enhances a wave coming off Colombia..

No widespread convection around Panama yet. Fairly low 1010 mb pressures, checking obs, but not dropping yet.

[Srain]

Today appears to be a drier day, the 'calm before the storm' so to speak. PW's have decreased to near 1.4/1.5, so isolated showers seem most likely. Those PW's increase rapidly to 2.0+ on Monday with the approaching mid/upper level disturbance currently S of Louisiana. That feature will move W toward the Texas Coast Monday-Wednesday. With deep tropical moisture in abundance, it would be difficult to not see rainfall across the area with heavy tropical showers/storms daily.

All eyes the turn to the Bay of Campeche. Guidance has been very suggestive on developing a broad low pressure within the monsoonal trough for many days. The remnants of Carlotta along with an area of disturbed weather moving out of the Western Caribbean combined with relaxing wind shear and falling pressures as well as favorable upper air pattern providing for anticyclonic out flow are the ingredients needed in a recipe to develop a tropical disturbance. With deep tropical moisture in place and such a broad surface low slowly meandering N to NNW out of the SW Gulf, daily long fetch E to SE flow will keep rainfall in the forecast most if not all of the upcoming work week. What will need to be monitored is the potential for heavy rainfall. The favored areas would be our Coastal Counties and inland to near the I-10 Corridor. We will need to watch future trends for any strengthening or deepening development of this tropical low next week. At this time a broad surface low is depicted within the monsoonal trough with deep tropical moisture moving inland along and E of the low pressure center which appears to be slow to move and finally slowly slide inland in Deep S Texas/NE Mexico later next weekend. Interests from Tampico to Vermillion Bay should monitor any future development throughout the coming week.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro, model most likely to be correct, and is farily dry and depressing the next 10 days...

Not bone dry, but not wet at all.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

How about that massive mid-west ridge in the long range! ughhhh it's going to get hot.

[DoctorMu]

Euro, model most likely to be correct, and is farily dry and depressing the next 10 days...

Not bone dry, but not wet at all.

I submit this long-term lemon for your lawn-watering fantasy pleasure.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Interesting several days ahead as the tropics help to provide a good coverage of rainfall for the area.

Today-Wednesday:

Easterly wave is moving westward toward the upper TX coast this morning with the axis of this wave near the coast at sunrise. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are in progress on the eastern side of the wave axis from roughly Liberty and Chambers Counties eastward into central LA. Air mass will continue to moisten today as the wave axis moves westward allowing deep tropical moisture to move into the area from the ESE. PWS will rise to 1.7 inches this afternoon and over 2.0 inches on Tuesday. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms today east of a lien from Conroe to Sugar Land to Bay City once upper 80 degree trigger temperatures are reached. With the wave axis further west on Tuesday and very deep moisture in place, expect numerous storms to develop prior to sunrise over the coastal waters and then move inland around sunrise. Saturated air column will support very heavy rainfall in a short period of time with a very quick 1-2 inches likely under the stronger storms. Wednesday should see a repeat of Tuesday with widespread morning development pushing inland through the day.

Thursday-weekend:

All attention will focus on the possible formation of some sort of tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Models are not in really any better agreement than last week on if/when/where this system may attempt to form and in what direction it may move. Central America monsoon trough has indeed lifted northward into the Caribbean Sea and extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and widespread convection is in progress over much of the Caribbean Sea this morning…very much as these models had been suggesting all last week. GFS and ECMWF have been the most consistent in developing a broad surface circulation in the southern Gulf or NW Caribbean Sea Thursday of this week and pushing it slowly WNW to NW into the western or northwestern Gulf this weekend. The latest CMC takes a NW Caribbean Sea NE toward FL as a strong tropical storm and this is being discounted as an outlier. Will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions and trend in the direction of a broad (messy) surface low developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico this Thursday or Friday and meandering toward the WNW over the weekend. Will keep the system weak as the latest GFS has really broad low pressure extending over much of the central Gulf of Mexico. Confidence is low on both the development and any movement of a southern Gulf tropical system…stay tuned!

As far as any impacts go, tides are already running above normal along the TX coast due to easterly winds and tides are expected to come up even more as the ESE fetch increases off the Gulf early this week behind the westward moving easterly wave. Tides area currently running .5-1.0 feet above predicted levels at Galveston, Freeport, and Port O Connor. Toward the end of the week, as low pressure develops to the south, expect increasing fetch and seas again aimed at the TX coast so higher tides will likely linger into next weekend. Will just have to wait and see how much high pressure builds into the central US and how this may affect the moisture profile on the northern flank of any tropical system. Latest models have come in drier with more high pressure over the region this weekend. There could be a very strong rainfall gradient across the area with bands of heavy rains moving into the southern TX and possibly the coastal bend while areas further up the coast remain dry. As noted this is a low confidence forecast and significant changes are likely later this week if/when a surface circulation actually develops.

Now is a good time to remind residents to review their hurricane preparation plans and make sure their supply kits are fully stocked.

[Ed Lizard]

Manly 2.3" PW on Eastern (happy) side of Easterly wave approaching SETX lawns.

[Quixotic1]

How about that massive mid-west ridge in the long range! ughhhh it's going to get hot.

The summer ridge is inevitable. All we can hope is that the tropics send us rain and cloud cover.

[Ed Lizard]

Next couple of days are mundo important, one way or the other, I don't see anything tropical or from the deep tropics affecting HOU in the next 10 days. Joe Bastardi's map of a system Sunday in Houston not withstanding.

In fact, by Sunday Euro (AccuWx PPV) shows HOU area temps near 95ºF, with inland places (think CLL) near 100F, early next week 100ºF temps awfully near Houston, and 105ºF temps inland around CLL

But to make SETX feel better, absolute worst of the heat DFW area Eastward to SHV. Dry obviously. Any Gulf happiness beyond next couple of days stays about CRP and points South. Looks like a heat low inland, so I suspect that between high pressure and subsidence and winds a little high for the seabreeze to form, not much relief that way.

Hard to tell from 24 hour time steps on RaleighWx 500 mb heights animation, but maybe the really insane 500 mb heights (almost 6000 meters) shifts West into the Four Corners.

Hotlinked radar, enjoy some color on it while it lasts. I hope my amateur forecast is a humiliating bust, and Easterly wave after Easterly wave soaks Houston. But I doubt it.

[Srain]

Nice to see some showers on the radar scope this morning. That should continue into tomorrow. Then eyes turn to the broad surface low slowly marching NW from the NW Caribbean.

1009mb low and attending trough will lift into the Yucatan Channel and continue to meander NW into the Gulf. The building ridge this weekend will relax a bit or break down allowing for a broad area of disturbed weather, or monsoonal low to drift to a position near NE Mexico/Deep S Texas. This will be a very slow process and the Euro seems to have a better handle on the synoptic pattern. The GFS is suffering from various convective feedback issues and Corpus Christi gives a great discussion concerning this. The board low pressure system looks to still be around early next week. Marine interests are the biggest concern and my hunch is we will see increased chatter from the NHC and various NWS offices around the Gulf Coastal region due to increasing wind and seas with various pressure related influences coming into play that could have an effect across a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern, so expect changes in the days ahead.

Corpus Christi:

AN INCREASE IN

SUBSIDENCE IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID LEVEL

RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS

ACROSS S TX. WEEKEND CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DAY ASIDE

FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE. RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO

BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO

MOVE INTO THE WEST GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PAN OUT LATE IN THE

EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LATENT HEAT

BUNDLING ISSUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE GULF.

ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED

MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS S TX. MAIN VARIABLE WILL BE HOW STRONG

MENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES AND IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED TO OUR

SOUTH ACROSS DEEP S TX OR IF MOISTURE CAN INFILTRATE OUR AREA.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Short term continues to be dominated by a very moist air mass and moderate to high rain chances.

Long term will depend on developments in the Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Weak easterly wave/inverted trough that moved into the upper TX coast yesterday morning continues to stream deep Gulf moisture into the area today. Waves of scattered showers continue to move inland off the NW Gulf and have been favoring the eastern side of the area so far this morning…mainly east of a line from Galveston to Baytown to Lake Livingston. Lake Charles sounding came in with a PW of 1.85 in and Corpus 2.0 in suggesting that the deep moisture over LA yesterday has moved westward into coastal TX today. With convective temperatures in the mid 80’s expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop and move inland throughout the day. Storm motions are on the brisk side and while very heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger cells, the fast storm motions should mitigate any flooding concerns. Another active day looks likely on Wednesday although the activity will likely focus west of I-45 where the best moisture will be found (drier air will be entering the area from the east). Much drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the region.

Long term continues with great uncertainty with respect to building of an upper level ridge of high pressure and formation of some sort of tropical feature in the Gulf of Mexico. Global forecast models have generally come back into decent agreement on bringing the current broad surface trough/weak low in the western Caribbean Sea WNW into the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday and gradually deepening the system into a closed tropical system. Any development is expected to be slow and not likely until this Friday at the earliest. The question then becomes if/when something does development in which direction it may move. Massive high pressure will be building over the central plains by late this week and this will likely produce an east to west steering flow across the Gulf of Mexico suggesting anything over the southern Gulf would likely move toward the WNW or NW. How strong this high is will likely determine how much/if any impacts there will be along the TX coast. For now will follow a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and HPC coordinated NHC features showing a weak broad surface low over the central/western Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Tides:

Deepening easterly flow across the northern Gulf on the east side on the weak easterly wave has resulted in some minor water level rises along the coast. Tides are currently running 1-1.5 feet above predicted levels both on the Gulf facing beaches and in the inland bays. Expect these higher than normal tides to continue for the next 24 hours. Development of surface low pressure over the southern Gulf toward the end of the week along with long fetch E winds and building seas may support equally high tides by this weekend.

[Ed Lizard]

Everyone knows I am a natural glass half full optimist, but Op Euro gets rain no further North than CRP once current wave passes, and gets HOU near 100ºF late weekend into next week, and 105ºF and above inland, NAEFS mean 500 mb would be no chance on potential disturbance getting close, and Euro ensemble means are almost identical to the operational around Texas.

.

[Ed Lizard]

I tend to believe Euro solution, supported by ensembles, of large ridge protecting Texas from all but indirect effects. And even those indirect effects South of my lawn.

But, as always, silver lining optimist guy, pro-met on ATL tropics thread in response to a post by the world's best weather forum admin, using language about Kelvin waves and upper divergence forecasts above my paygrade (I'm an amateur, everything is above my paygrade) , says basin will be favorable all next week, and maybe by then a weakness will develop in monster ridge and let some rainfall from tropics in.

And, 216 and 230 hour Euro and ensembles, positive tilt trough gets pretty far South, near Florida, and sometimes something pinches off the end and migrates back West under the trough and makes a run at going from cold core to warm core.

Yeah, modelling suggests hot and dry, but can't keep my natural optimism down.

[DoctorMu]

Everyone knows I am a natural glass half full optimist, but Op Euro gets rain no further North than CRP once current wave passes, and gets HOU near 100ºF late weekend into next week, and 105ºF and above inland, NAEFS mean 500 mb would be no chance on potential disturbance getting close, and Euro ensemble means are almost identical to the operational around Texas.

.

Sounds ominous. I'm hoping to get some work completed by the end of the day next Tuesday and GTFO Dodge...or in this case CLL

Speaking of half full. Nature lawn watering system approaching fast.

[Srain]

The processes are already to become a bit more clear as to how things will develop over the next several days. The GFS ensembles as well as the Euro agree on a transfer, if you will of energy that is rather complex. At the surface, a 1009mb surface low is now moving onshore in Belize heading in a general NW fashion. In the upper levels, a TUTT low is moving WNW just S of Louisiana traveling along the trough axis that is giving us tropical showers/storms today into tomorrow. Further S near Monterrey, a left over mid/upper level vort that was the MCS that dropped SE to near Austin late Sunday has rotated around an upper ridge and is moving offshore into the Gulf near Tampico. Along the West Coast of Mexico, an area of disturbed weather is nearing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec interacting with the low crossing the Yucatan. While the models do agree that a bit of drying is in order for Thursday into Sunday, most reliable guidance suggest the heat ridge may be a tad weaker, or further N than earlier modeled. A weak 'cool front' has also slowed down its S progression across the Tennessee Valley keeping the board low in the Western Gulf somewhat stationary as the streering current collapse. What does it mean? It is still a very difficult and complex pattern and a lot depends on just how deep the Western Gulf low becomes over the next 72 hours. Whether anything of real interest develops fully remains to be seen. I will say that regardless of development, it is clear we are not in a pattern of last year where endless days of drought and excessive heat were the theme for months on end.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm as confused as ever, especially with the new European taking a page from the Canadian and GFS and pulling a healthy bit of the vorticity out towards the Northeast Gulf.

[DoctorMu]

The processes are already to become a bit more clear as to how things will develop over the next several days. The GFS ensembles as well as the Euro agree on a transfer, if you will of energy that is rather complex. At the surface, a 1009mb surface low is now moving onshore in Belize heading in a general NW fashion. In the upper levels, a TUTT low is moving WNW just S of Louisiana traveling along the trough axis that is giving us tropical showers/storms today into tomorrow. Further S near Monterrey, a left over mid/upper level vort that was the MCS that dropped SE to near Austin late Sunday has rotated around an upper ridge and is moving offshore into the Gulf near Tampico. Along the West Coast of Mexico, an area of disturbed weather is nearing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec interacting with the low crossing the Yucatan. While the models do agree that a bit of drying is in order for Thursday into Sunday, most reliable guidance suggest the heat ridge may be a tad weaker, or further N than earlier modeled. A weak 'cool front' has also slowed down its S progression across the Tennessee Valley keeping the board low in the Western Gulf somewhat stationary as the streering current collapse. What does it mean? It is still a very difficult and complex pattern and a lot depends on just how deep the Western Gulf low becomes over the next 72 hours. Whether anything of real interest develops fully remains to be seen. I will say that regardless of development, it is clear we are not in a pattern of last year where endless days of drought and excessive heat were the theme for months on end.

This is the X-Factor that I like in between the wave/trough thing and the developing L in the BoC. Reminds me in mechanics of a "force couple" designed to rev up torque...dragging in moisture from Mexico.

The conus view is kewl. Amp it up!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[Ed Lizard]

Its the NAM, but...

I know from prior version of NCEP website, NAM domain extended to Northern South America and East of the Lesser Antilles, and I may not stay up for the GFS.

Nothing in Texas for a week, but still silver lining on a possible piece of the Eastern polar trough pinching off near Florida Day 9 or 10 and retrograding back under the ridge, and maybe, just maybe, trying to develop.

[Ed Lizard]

LCH sounding any guide, back to more normal PW tomorrow for SETX, but the convective temperature is certainly reachable with a little sunshine.

Probably another day before the rather dry atmosphere sampled near New Orleans reaches us...