Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Ed Lizard]

0Z and 6Z GFS are very different on Western trough, or the crystal ball is murky.

 

But both keep 10C 850 mb isotherm near/North of my house all week.  Can't complain in January.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Increasingly mild weather will prevail for the next several days across the region.
 
NW upper level flow will slowly transition to a more zonal and eventually a SW flow aloft by this weekend and early next week. A northern plains storm system will drag a weak cool front into TX on Thursday with the boundary moving into SE TX Friday and stalling out. Main concern over the next 2-4 days will be development of overnight/morning fog and the formation of sea fog over the nearshore waters through the entire period. Dense ¼ mile visibility radiation fog is in place over much of the area this morning (especially south of I-10). This fog will dissipate by 9-10am with partly cloudy skies resulting in high temperatures in the mid 70’s this afternoon (about 10 degrees above average for this time of year).
 
Weak to moderate onshore flow over the next few days will usher in increasing dewpoint temperatures. A check of current water temperatures shows 55-57 degrees along the Gulf beaches and 52-54 degree in the bays. As surface dewpoints begin to climb above the water temperatures the threat for dense sea fog will begin to develop as the surface air is chilled as it flows over the “cold” water. Tonight may be marginal as dewpoints start to reach the mid 50’s, but Thursday evening onward as dewpoints rise into the upper 50’s and low 60’s should result in a fairly widespread dense sea fog bank that will persist for the next several days (both day and night).
 
With the weak frontal boundary arriving into the area and stalling Friday-Sunday and weak disturbances passing across in the upper level flow there will be a chance of light rain or showers through the entire period. Amounts will be on the light side and not all areas will see rainfall…so will keep the chances in the 30% range for Friday-Sunday. Moisture begins to deepen on increasing southerly winds early next week as a stronger storm system approaches from the southern Rockies. Some timing differences in the major models suggest increased rain chances from Tuesday-Wednesday of next week. This system looks fairly strong and could be our next “weather maker”.
 
Until then warm and muggy with lows in the upper 50’s and low 60’s and highs in the mid to upper 70’s under foggy mornings and partly cloudy afternoons with a few passing showers.

[Ed Lizard]

Since I don't get all that excited or leave early just for a dense fog advisory, they should have a PDS dense fog advisory for days like today where the vis had to be below an 1/8th of a mile.

[Srain]

The 12Z operational GFS has trended a bit 'colder' for mid/late next week and there are hints of some severe weather in the warm sector across E Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana as well as possible light wintry mischief as the trough/upper air disturbance moves E across Texas. Snow is also suggested via the GFS for New Mexico as increased Pacific moisture moves inland across the West. We will see.

 

 

[bubba hotep]

The 12Z operational GFS has trended a bit 'colder' for mid/late next week and there are hints of some severe weather in the warm sector across E Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana as well as possible light wintry mischief as the trough/upper air disturbance moves E across Texas. Snow is also suggested via the GFS for New Mexico as increased Pacific moisture moves inland across the West. We will see.

 

01232013 12Z GFS f168.gif

01232013 12Z GFS f174.gif

01232013 12Z GFS f180.gif

 

 

12z was an interesting run but I'm not going to call it a trend yet with the way the models have been thrashing around.  Things could get really interesting, if we could get that to go neutral/negative/cut off.

[DoctorMu]

Major fog in CLL this AM, a few weeks early for my taste. Still have fingers crossed for -10°C here, but at best a light freeze next week. Insects came back with a vengeance once the drought begane to waver. 2013 could be ugly unless we knock them down with some arctic air.

That arctic air that we were supposed to get at one time is really blasting the mid-athlantic and NE. Snow in the Triangle on Friday.

[bubba hotep]

[Srain]

While it is way out in model world and certainly cannot be fully trusted, the operational 12Z GFS is suggesting some chilly wet weather as we enter the first half of February as the MJO becomes favorable and the sub tropical jet remains noisy. Another 'hint' that winter may not be done is a raging GWO as well as tropical forcing from the MJO that has been non existent so far this winter season. February climo tells us that the first half of February can offer our best chances of wintry mischief as we march toward a change in season to that of a more Spring like pattern later in February into early March. I did notice what HGX mentioned this morning in regard to the CPC 8-14 day Outlook, but the trends the past several days suggest that the pattern will remain rather fluid as the guidance struggles with the evolving pattern ahead. In fact as of yesterday there was a bit of a shift to the W with a 'colder regime' during the fist half of February E of the Rockies. With the dynamics unfolding across the mid to high latitudes, my hunch is we have not seen the last of some winter chill across the Region. We will see.

 

[Quixotic1]

Man oh man I hate to be the voice of gloom and doom...

 

"and then, depression set in"

 

[DFWWeather]

Today's 0z ECMWF is looking interesting for significant winter weather at 174hrs for North Texas, DFW in particular. It'll be interesting to see if the 12z hangs on or leans towards the GFS and CMC. Op ECMWF is currently an outlier run (however it has been outperforming all the other long range models this winter by far). The consensus is for a more progressive open trough. The 12z GFS continues with that idea. Pattern recognition with vortex near Hudson bay and elongated positively tilted trough extending towards Desert Southwest is a good one for producing big winter events in Texas.

[Portastorm]

Today's 0z ECMWF is looking interesting for significant winter weather at 174hrs for North Texas, DFW in particular. It'll be interesting to see if the 12z hangs on or leans towards the GFS and CMC. Op ECMWF is currently an outlier run (however it has been outperforming all the other long range models this winter by far). The consensus is for a more progressive open trough. The 12z GFS continues with that idea. Pattern recognition with vortex near Hudson bay and elongated positively tilted trough extending towards Desert Southwest is a good one for producing big winter events in Texas.

 

Sadly, the 12z Euro isn't anything like it's 0z op run.  All of the winter "fun" is off to our east.  I think goobagooba said it best.

 

Now it's time to go back outside and enjoy "winter" and the 82 degree temperatures.

[DFWWeather]

Sadly, the 12z Euro isn't anything like it's 0z op run.  All of the winter "fun" is off to our east.  I think goobagooba said it best.

 

Now it's time to go back outside and enjoy "winter" and the 82 degree temperatures.

 

I wouldn't be so quick to discount the 0z ECMWF run just yet, while the 12z has trended a little more progressive, it still cuts the low off out west. Coincidentally, several GFS ensemble members are now trending toward a cutoff scenario as well. Until this system is sampled by the North American upper air network, we won't have a clear indication either way. Given upper pattern next week, I would be very wary of a slow moving cutoff system with this much moisture out ahead of it for wintry mischief for North Texas (probably not down in the Austin area though). NWS office has similar woes in afternoon AFD today. Very low confidence forecast at best. It should be noted a nice chunk of Polar/Arctic air diving into the Mississippi Valley late next week for the system to tap into.

[Portastorm]

Just to clarify, I wasn't dismissive of the 0z Euro op run.  Just mentioning that the 12z run appeared to offer a different scenario.  I also saw great diversity in the individual ensemble members for the 12z GFS.  I'm not expecting this particular system to provide anything wintry for my part of Texas, but it wouldn't surprise me to see something for the northern part of the state, especially closer to the Red River.  Our winter window down here has about 3-4 weeks left.  I'm hopeful we'll see at least one event before spring kicks in.

[Ed Lizard]

Just to clarify, I wasn't dismissive of the 0z Euro op run.  Just mentioning that the 12z run appeared to offer a different scenario.  I also saw great diversity in the individual ensemble members for the 12z GFS.  I'm not expecting this particular system to provide anything wintry for my part of Texas, but it wouldn't surprise me to see something for the northern part of the state, especially closer to the Red River.  Our winter window down here has about 3-4 weeks left.  I'm hopeful we'll see at least one event before spring kicks in.

I have seen nasty freezes since I moved to Houston as late as early/mid March.

[bubba hotep]

00z NAM has gone with the cutoff low, the 12z FIM 30km is in the cutoff camp, while the 15km is in the more progressive camp with the GFS.  Now lets see what the 00z GFS throws out there. 

 

I'm not as down on the long range as some.  The MJO looks to move through 8/1/2 and that could help us with temps but we would need an active subtropical jet to keep us from going dry and cold.  Also, the MJO was foretasted to be more amped up and moving into 8 right now but has gotten hung up in 7. 

 

ETA: and the 00z Euro folds

[Portastorm]

That hissing sound you hear is air leaking from the balloon once filled with the winter hopes and dreams of some of us in Texas. 

 

I see little signs for hope in either the operational runs or ensemble mean/members this morning.  Maybe someone around here more enlightened than I can identify something to latch on to, but I cannot. 

[Quixotic1]

That hissing sound you hear is air leaking from the balloon once filled with the winter hopes and dreams of some of us in Texas.

I see little signs for hope in either the operational runs or ensemble mean/members this morning. Maybe someone around here more enlightened than I can identify something to latch on to, but I cannot.

theres the potential for severe weather on tuesday.

i agree with bubba hotep on the mjo entering faborable octants. so theres a little bit of hope.

[Ed Lizard]

At 90 hours for HOU/IAH area, Euro skew-T shows a definite cap at 800 mb, which isn't good (midnight Tuesday into Wednesday).  Which totally wastes the low level shear.  But in the good lapse rate region above the LFC, 700-400 mb, almost 50 knots of speed shear.  No directional shear.  But even with the low levels not all that unstable, 50 knots of wind at 900 mb, maybe some severe gusts.  HOU area on Southern end of that line.

 

On Euro CAPE maps, SWODY4 area will be struggling for instability.  But glass 3/8ths optimistic.  Nothing is over before SREFs say it is over, or until about later tomorrow for Tuesday/Wednesday severe.

 

Of course, even with severe weather after midnight, darn job means I may sleep through it, or, at best, be woken by thunder and miss the joy of tracking it in on radar.

[bubba hotep]

That hissing sound you hear is air leaking from the balloon once filled with the winter hopes and dreams of some of us in Texas. 

 

I see little signs for hope in either the operational runs or ensemble mean/members this morning.  Maybe someone around here more enlightened than I can identify something to latch on to, but I cannot. 

 

I think it is pretty much a warm sector severe threat at this point but the 00z NAM ( ) might get some winter weather in to N Texas, if you extrapolate it out.  I'm not a big severe weather guy but it looks like I-35 might be the cutoff for this event in the DFW area.  I just hope we can cash in on some heavy rain and thunder out here but don't want my fence blown down again.

[Portastorm]

My area of south central Texas is at the southwestern base of the Day 3 slight risk outlook.  We'll gladly take several inches of rain out of this event if we can get it, especially if the slower Euro/NAM solutions verify.

[DoctorMu]

It looks like March out there. Little shear though yet. Not exactly the winter scenario I was looking for.

[bubba hotep]

My area of south central Texas is at the southwestern base of the Day 3 slight risk outlook.  We'll gladly take several inches of rain out of this event if we can get it, especially if the slower Euro/NAM solutions verify.

 

I'm guessing Austin will be looking at .25 - .50 out of this system and eastern DFW could see an inch tops.  However, still a lot to be worked out and I'm still pulling for a period of heavy rain but no damage to my fence.

[bubba hotep]

FWD afternoon thoughts:

 

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE THE HIGHEST THREAT TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTINTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPEARS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME AND GRADUALLY SLIDESEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG TOSEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BYMIDDAY AND AFTER WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PARALLEL TO THETROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QLCS OR LEWP TYPE OF STORMMODE WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITH THESE SEGMENTS. THOUGHTHIS SHEAR PROFILE USUALLY SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREATS OF MARGINALLYSEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...ANY MESO-LOWS AT THEAPEX OF SUCH SEGMENTS CAN POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SHORT-LIVEDTORNADOES. THE HIGHEST RISK APPEARS TO BE AREAS EAST OF THEI-35/I-35E CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE LOWEST LCL/SWILL EXIST. THERE IS MENTION THAT A POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK MAY BEISSUED BY SPC FOR LATER TUESDAY...BUT JUST WHERE WILL BE THEQUESTION. WE ARE FIGURING NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERNLA AND INTO AR.

 

[Portastorm]

69 degrees at Monday morning wake-up here in Austin.  Amazing.  Close to tying record high/low minimum of 70.

 

Meanwhile the 6z GFS in la-la land offers a glimmer of hope for Texas winter "fun" at around 288 hrs.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Near record warmth will continue ahead of a strong storm system to arrive into the central plains Tuesday.
 
Deep long wave trough over the western US is supporting a persistent SE low level flow of air with origins in the southern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean Sea. The result is near record to above record warmth across much of the nation east of the Rockies. As this storm system moves into the plains tomorrow the stage will be set for a rare widespread severe weather outbreak from the Great Lakes to TX.
 
Locally strong winds overnight has led to more stratus this morning than fog and while dewpoints are above the nearshore water temperatures these stronger winds are keeping the sea fog minimal at the moment. Moisture has continued to deepen over the region since yesterday morning and this has allowed a few scattered short lived showers to develop in the rapid low level flow. Expect this onshore flow pattern to remain in place for the next 24-36 hours with warm and humid conditions continuing.
 
Tail end of the central plains storm system will graze the area late Tuesday with a cold frontal passage in the evening hours on Tuesday. Parameters are not completely aligned for a good chance of severe weather or rainfall over SE TX even though this system will favor strong dynamics aloft. Best moisture and low level jet feed shifts eastward during the afternoon hours on Tuesday prior to the arrival of the surface front and best lifting aloft. Additionally, mid level winds veer increasingly toward the southwest suggesting capping will evolve out of NE MX and into SC and coastal TX during the day on Tuesday. SPC slight risk outline reaches down to roughly the I-10 corridor, but think the best chances of any strong to severe storms will be NE of a College Station to Livingston line where moisture will be greatest and capping weakest. SW of this line a line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible although the latest TT model suggest very limited activity over the southern portions of the area. Timing of the activity into SE TX should range between 300pm (NW) to near 1000pm (coast). Will need to take a close looking at the thermodynamic profiles Tuesday morning to better define the rain chances and any marginal severe threat.
 
Fast moving cold front will usher in near normal temperatures for late January. Lows will fall back into the 40’s with highs in the 60’s for the rest of the week into next weekend under mainly sunny skies. Air mass will only slowly modify with south winds returning by next weekend. 
 
Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday

 

[CranberryWX]

69 degrees at Monday morning wake-up here in Austin.  Amazing.  Close to tying record high/low minimum of 70.

 

Meanwhile the 6z GFS in la-la land offers a glimmer of hope for Texas winter "fun" at around 288 hrs.

Down here in Midland, TX on business...definitely didn't bring the right clothes. I should have brought shorts and t-shirts. I saw 81 on the car thermometer at times this afternoon. Tomorrow looks to have winds screaming out of the west up to 60 mph. I saw a lot of dust flying today, I can just imagine what it will be like tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

69 degrees at Monday morning wake-up here in Austin.  Amazing.  Close to tying record high/low minimum of 70.

 

Meanwhile the 6z GFS in la-la land offers a glimmer of hope for Texas winter "fun" at around 288 hrs.

 

I don't know what to think about the long range but the AO is starting to look like it might go back negative and the models had a decent looking MJO the other day (8-1-2) but now seem to be struggling with what they want to do with it.  Both the Euro and GFS are looking troughy over the West by day 10 and beyond that (Feb 7 - 10) on the GFS there are some hints of a system coming through N Texas.  Combine climo with a -AO, a favorable MJO, and a system then who knows what might happen in that Feb 7 - 10 window

[Quixotic1]

i think the mmw at the beginning off the month flipped a great pattern for us, though i freely admit to not knowing enough about the dynamics of it. maybe wxmx could chime in on it.

[Portastorm]

Down here in Midland, TX on business...definitely didn't bring the right clothes. I should have brought shorts and t-shirts. I saw 81 on the car thermometer at times this afternoon. Tomorrow looks to have winds screaming out of the west up to 60 mph. I saw a lot of dust flying today, I can just imagine what it will be like tomorrow.

 

Today you should get an introduction to the classic West Texas wind!  Enjoy ... and maybe wear a mask to keep the dust out.

[Portastorm]

I don't know what to think about the long range but the AO is starting to look like it might go back negative and the models had a decent looking MJO the other day (8-1-2) but now seem to be struggling with what they want to do with it.  Both the Euro and GFS are looking troughy over the West by day 10 and beyond that (Feb 7 - 10) on the GFS there are some hints of a system coming through N Texas.  Combine climo with a -AO, a favorable MJO, and a system then who knows what might happen in that Feb 7 - 10 window

 

Saw the same thing ... tanking AO, MJO into octants 8-1-2 (albeit somewhat questionable), ridging poking up into British Columbia off the West Coast and a trough developing over the Rockies.  I *thought* that might be a good sign but realize I'm grasping for straws at this point.