Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[ams30721us]

Sleeting in dtwn Lake Charles this morning. Man, if only that Upper Level Low would go neutral or negative over us right now with the cold air aloft finally moving in...

[Srain]

Yep, it looks coolish to average... or in other words...meh.

 

AO will stay mostly negative for the foreseeable future so if and when a better 500mb pattern arises, the source of cold air will probably be mostly arctic. One thing I have noted is that there's mayhem in model world after day 8, nothing than a ridge in the arctic is common to all models. This usually means a change is about to occur.

I tend to agree Jorge. We usually see a January thaw before winter returns and climo suggests our best chances of some actual winter weather is late January into the first half of February in our part of the world. That said it is nice to see the sun for a change that may last longer than a day. We have been in a very active pattern since December 12th...

[Portastorm]

Well, the 12z GFS has a Texas snowstorm at about 360 hours ... so now we have something to follow again!

 

It will be interesting to see what kind of impact that giant storm in the North Pacific will have on the pattern as well as the models in the days ahead.

[Ed Lizard]

February is supposed to be the magic month, but all three miracle snows I have seen in 12 years in Houston have been in December, and the coolest burst of snow I ever saw in Austin was in December, 1996.  Must have been two or three inches, although it was gone by the end of the day.

 

Year or two before that, did have a 99ºF February day followed about a week later by freezing rain, which was cool.

[DFWWeather]

Yep, it looks coolish to average... or in other words...meh.

 

AO will stay mostly negative for the foreseeable future so if and when a better 500mb pattern arises, the source of cold air will probably be mostly arctic. One thing I have noted is that there's mayhem in model world after day 8, nothing than a ridge in the arctic is common to all models. This usually means a change is about to occur.

 

The 12z on both op models have trended back a little colder, however not as cold a before. They are really struggling with the pattern next week. Still feel we are going to get colder than what is showing. A lot of mayhem for sure!

 

That being said, this well advertised cold outbreak may not be as impressive further east either, although colder for them. It says to me that the cold air that was available was sent into Europe and Asia and the models are just now catching on. The other issue is that it looks like the most of the cold air available is heading into that bigger trough out in the Atlantic.

[Srain]

While we are enjoying a much calmer pattern and more seasonal temps for the next 7 days or so, there continues to be some indication via the longer range operational and ensemble guidance that a stormy and 'colder' pattern will re establish after about a week to 10 day break. We will see.

[DFWWeather]

While we are enjoying a much calmer pattern and more seasonal temps for the next 7 days or so, there continues to be some indication via the longer range operational and ensemble guidance that a stormy and 'colder' pattern will re establish after about a week to 10 day break. We will see.

 

I'm not going to hold my breath. January is probably going to come in neutral to above normal judging by the outlook for the remainder of the month. February is also looking warm. This is most likely going to be one of the top 10 warmest winters on record for DFW, maybe even top 5 warmest. The lowest temp so far has been 22°F set on Christmas Day. There are only 12 winters since weather records have been kept where the lowest temp of the winter has stayed above 20°F. Winter Cancel!

[Chinook]

Year or two before that, did have a 99ºF February day followed about a week later by freezing rain, which was cool.

 

I didn't think that was possible outside of true tropical areas, due to lack of intense sunlight.

[Quixotic1]

I didn't think that was possible outside of true tropical areas, due to lack of intense sunlight.

not sure but i think hes referring to february 96. early in the month, dallas hit 8 degrees. dry air and soil for a long stretch contributed to what happened next: strong sw winds and bright sunshine brought temps to 96 and 98 degrees for two days. the two events were separated by less than three weeks.

incidentally, that was the last time dfw was in single digits. the longest stretch since records began in 1898.

[DFWWeather]

incidentally, that was the last time dfw was in single digits. the longest stretch since records began in 1898.

 

I know like I posted a few pages back. DFW should on average be seeing lows that cold every 1 in 4 years based on the records. I don't think there has been enough urban development since 1996 to prohibit lows from falling that low again, it has just been verifiable proof of how much warmer a climate cycle we are in. Any hope of seeing lows that cold this year looks very, very bleak at this point. Winter cancel! Honestly, I think it is going to have to wait until the AMO flips to a colder cycle for it to happen again. There was a stretch of 36 years from 1945 to about 1982, that we didn't have one winter where the lowest winter temperature was ever warmer than 19°F.

[bubba hotep]

I'm not going to hold my breath. January is probably going to come in neutral to above normal judging by the outlook for the remainder of the month. February is also looking warm. This is most likely going to be one of the top 10 warmest winters on record for DFW, maybe even top 5 warmest. The lowest temp so far has been 22°F set on Christmas Day. There are only 12 winters since weather records have been kept where the lowest temp of the winter has stayed above 20°F. Winter Cancel!

 

The odds were always stacked against this winter with ENSO neutral and a worsening drought.  My expectations were exceeded with the fist dusting of snow that we had.  Then we had the Christmas day storm that we were able to track for about 10 days in model land.  It seemed like it was going to be a bust and then it really came together over the last 48 hours or so.  We had thunder and heavy rain all night and then the rapid transition to heavy snow.  It was an awesome system.  Then we had the Shocker on the 15th!  I mean, really, this has been an outstanding winter for us in the NE DFW burbs.  

It looks like we will get a couple of cold fronts but stay mostly dry for the next 10 days or so.  I’m eyeballing the 27 – 30 for our next significant system.

[Quixotic1]

I know like I posted a few pages back. DFW should on average be seeing lows that cold every 1 in 4 years based on the records. I don't think there has been enough urban development since 1996 to prohibit lows from falling that low again, it has just been verifiable proof of how much warmer a climate cycle we are in. Any hope of seeing lows that cold this year looks very, very bleak at this point. Winter cancel! Honestly, I think it is going to have to wait until the AMO flips to a colder cycle for it to happen again. There was a stretch of 36 years from 1945 to about 1982, that we didn't have one winter where the lowest winter temperature was ever warmer than 19°F.

im no uhi expert, but dfw saw explosive growth north and west of the ap since then. it used to be on the northern fringe. both 2009-10 and 10-11 had days that brought us into the low mid teens. the streak should have ended there. granted arctic outbreaks are rarer but probably mote to do with the worst of all worlds: a bad pacific, a bad atlantic, and a warmer source reguon.

[andyhb]

While we are enjoying a much calmer pattern and more seasonal temps for the next 7 days or so, there continues to be some indication via the longer range operational and ensemble guidance that a stormy and 'colder' pattern will re establish after about a week to 10 day break. We will see.

 

Well late January and early February 2008 was showing up on some of the long range (6-10 and 8-14 day) analogs this morning/afternoon, and now I kinda see why.

[wxmx]

I didn't think that was possible outside of true tropical areas, due to lack of intense sunlight.

 

 

Well late January and early February 2008 was showing up on some of the long range (6-10 and 8-14 day) analogs this morning/afternoon, and now I kinda see why.

 

Feb 5th, 2008

 

METAR MMAN 052043Z 25028KT 8SM SKC 38/04 A2964 RMK SLP995 57026 977 VC BLDU

 

500mb pattern is meh, but with a mostly -AO for the next weeks, I doubt we have an early winter end...very much doubt it.

[Srain]

Slightly below normal temps should transition to seasonal norms this weekend as a return flow becomes established prior to the arrival of a front on Monday. The coldest air will be of to our N and E as an Arctic air mass settles into the Great Lakes and Eastern 1/3 of the CONUS.

 

Changes are ahead next week as the Western Ridge begins to break down and a storm system moves inland from the Pacific. Cloudy and possibly foggy weather looks likely Tuesday into Wednesday with some light showers returning as a disturbance crosses the Region and a Pacific front passes Thursday.

 

Looking ahead to the end of January, it appears a trough may become established once again across the Western half of the Nation as a Kelvin Wave moves E from the Pacific Ocean and a general stormy pattern returns to begin the month of February. We will see.

[bubba hotep]

Slightly below normal temps should transition to seasonal norms this weekend as a return flow becomes established prior to the arrival of a front on Monday. The coldest air will be of to our N and E as an Arctic air mass settles into the Great Lakes and Eastern 1/3 of the CONUS.

 

Changes are ahead next week as the Western Ridge begins to break down and a storm system moves inland from the Pacific. Cloudy and possibly foggy weather looks likely Tuesday into Wednesday with some light showers returning as a disturbance crosses the Region and a Pacific front passes Thursday.

 

Looking ahead to the end of January, it appears a trough may become established once again across the Western half of the Nation as a Kelvin Wave moves E from the Pacific Ocean and a general stormy pattern returns to begin the month of February. We will see.

 

Yeah, I am getting more interested in what may play out at the end of the month:

 

[Srain]

Doug Brown, a longtime weathercaster at KTRK (Channel 13) and KHOU (Channel 11), has died. He was 79.
 
Brown worked for Channel 13 from 1976 through 2008, including several years on the station’s “Good Morning, Houston” program and on its morning newscasts.
 
He grew up in Brady, worked for Armed Forces Radio in Korea and began his career in television at KRGV in Weslaco and KWTX in Waco before coming to Houston in 1972 to work for Channel 11.
 
Brown came to Houston at the suggestion of longtime Channel 13 anchor Dave Ward, who also worked in Waco before coming to Channel 13.
 
“He was one of the greatest guys in the world, with a great sense of humor,” Ward said. ““He was very knowledgeable at what he did and had a great on-air presentation.”

http://blog.chron.com/sportsmedia/2013/01/longtime-channel-13-weatherman-doug-brown-dies/

 

Doug Brown (Courtesy of KTRK)

[somethingfunny]

The January thaw begins, this 60s-70s and sunny pattern is what we advertised to the AMS when they booked for Austin.  Sorry about that! 

 

It's just come in a bit later this year.  Early February is usually the best time for wintry precip here and the long-range indicators make me think this year won't be an exception.

 

Y'all know we would have gone sub-10° at DFW in 2011 if we hadn't had a bit too many unexpected breezes and low clouds overnight during that week.  I'm not worried about the long-term climate pattern.  I know we're in the midst of the greatest run of snowy winters since the 1970s right now so let's not **** all over it, let's appreciate what we've got here.

[DoctorMu]

not sure but i think hes referring to february 96. early in the month, dallas hit 8 degrees. dry air and soil for a long stretch contributed to what happened next: strong sw winds and bright sunshine brought temps to 96 and 98 degrees for two days. the two events were separated by less than three weeks.

incidentally, that was the last time dfw was in single digits. the longest stretch since records began in 1898.

Feb 21, 1996. I thought I was going to freakin' die. I finally turned the AC on after sitting under a ceiling fan for part of the day. The 90°+ temps went on for 3 days. It was surreal.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Long range on the GFS shows a very nice split flow developing with an active STJ. It shows Dallas seing a nice snow/ice storm. Even if it doesn't snow, a wetter pattern is in the making with that depiction.

[Quixotic1]

Feb 21, 1996. I thought I was going to freakin' die. I finally turned the AC on after sitting under a ceiling fan for part of the day. The 90°+ temps went on for 3 days. It was surreal.

early heatwaves are killers. april 2006 sticks out in my mind because the local power folks got caught unprepared and we had rolling blackouts.

march

[Srain]

The Winter Storm RECON data is trickling in and the ingest of that data should be fully complete for the 12Z suite of operational and ensemble guidance. The 06Z GEFS is already picking up on the changes via that data and the changes that may occur across the West, Great Basin and Plains as well as across Alaska and Western Canada (our source Regions).

 

The Big storm across the Pacific appears to arrive onshore later next week in two phases. One into British Columbia/Pacific NW with a second storm system arriving a bit later along the California Coast and moving into the Great Basin. This sort of pattern resembles what we saw near the Christmas time frame when the colder side brought significant snow to the higher elevation of the Sierra Nevada/Northern Arizona/New Mexico and into the Southern and Central Rockies and the Front Range into the Plains, while in the warm sector we saw a severe outbreak.

 

While it is too soon to know with absolute certainty that the pattern will reload our source regions across Eastern Alaska/Western Canada, there is strong indication that the MJO will play a much more active role and create the potential for a very noisy Sub Tropical Jet as it moves into phase or octant 8. As has already been posted in the February thread, cold air and a noisy SJT may well be established during the early part of February which is prime time climo wise for our Region for all sort of wintry mischief potential. We will see.

 

 

06Z GEFS:

 

00Z Euro Ensembles:

 

MJO:

 

[bubba hotep]

The Winter Storm RECON data is trickling in and the ingest of that data should be fully complete for the 12Z suite of operational and ensemble guidance. The 06Z GEFS is already picking up on the changes via that data and the changes that may occur across the West, Great Basin and Plains as well as across Alaska and Western Canada (our source Regions).

 

The Big storm across the Pacific appears to arrive onshore later next week in two phases. One into British Columbia/Pacific NW with a second storm system arriving a bit later along the California Coast and moving into the Great Basin. This sort of pattern resembles what we saw near the Christmas time frame when the colder side brought significant snow to the higher elevation of the Sierra Nevada/Northern Arizona/New Mexico and into the Southern and Central Rockies and the Front Range into the Plains, while in the warm sector we saw a severe outbreak.

 

While it is too soon to know with absolute certainty that the pattern will reload our source regions across Eastern Alaska/Western Canada, there is strong indication that the MJO will play a much more active role and create the potential for a very noisy Sub Tropical Jet as it moves into phase or octant 8. As has already been posted in the February thread, cold air and a noisy SJT may well be established during the early part of February which is prime time climo wise for our Region for all sort of wintry mischief potential. We will see.

 

 

06Z GEFS:

01192013 06Z GEFS 06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

01192013 06Z GEFS 06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA264.gif

 

00Z Euro Ensembles:

01192013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

01192013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA240.gif

 Nice post, I was going to make a post this morning about the potential for our source region to recharge but got distracted by the kids.  I just hope we see that cold air come down the spine of the Rockies this time and not getting shunted east. 

[Srain]

The time frame to keep an eye on across our Region is the last days of January. The remains a lot of volatility in the medium range operational and to some extent the ensembles regarding a very potent storm system moving inland along the California Coast. Additional Winter Storm RECON has been tasked as there remain a great deal of uncertainty with the pattern over the Pacific Ocean and just how the approaching storm system will interact with the Artic boundary draped across the Eastern half of the US.

 

It is also interesting to note that behind that storm system, much colder air is building once again across Alaska and Western Canada. It is much hunch that the storm expected near the 28th, +/- a couple of day will be somewhat similar to what we saw with the Christmas Storm offering wintry mischief in the cold sector and a severe episode potential in the warm sector.

 

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EST SUN 20 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-051

 

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

 

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
       A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 22/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK52
       C. 21/1930Z
       D. 19 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z

 

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. P46/ DROP 7/ 23/0000Z
    3. REMARKS: TRACK P52 WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 21/0000Z
       WILL BE FLOWN AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-050.

 

 

[Srain]

The 12Z OP Euro and its ensemble mean are in a bit better agreement in the day 8-10 range in suggesting a dual stream storm complex arriving in British Columbia and California. Via the trends today and with additional Winter Storm RECON over the Pacific scheduled, interest is increasing for the potential of a Christmas Storm part 2 scenario for our Region.

[bubba hotep]

The 12Z OP Euro and its ensemble mean are in a bit better agreement in the day 8-10 range in suggesting a dual stream storm complex arriving in British Columbia and California. Via the trends today and with additional Winter Storm RECON over the Pacific scheduled, interest is increasing for the potential of a Christmas Storm part 2 scenario for our Region.

 

18z GFS ensembles continue the theme of building cold by day 10:

 

 

The question is; where does it go?  I know that looking at individual members is a fool’s errand and even more pointless out in fantasy land but the 18z batch has some members that really drive the cold to Texas via the spine of the Rockies.

[Srain]

A weak front will wash out today and a return flow off the Gulf will become established bringing slightly above seasonal temps and modest moisture returns before a bit stronger front arrives late Thursday/early Friday. Fog and a slight chance of light rain may return prior to that frontal passage. Cooler seasonal temps appear to be the theme for the up coming weekend before big changes and a return flow takes hold by Sunday.

All eyes turn W as the upper Ridge that has brought plentiful sunshine and a January thaw to our region breaks downs down and a deep trough and potent upper air disturbances moves onshore in California and drops SSE. At the base of that Western trough, a powerful storm system develops and attempts to close off. Further N along the British Colombia/Pacific NW Coast another potent storm system moves inland setting the stage for embedded short wave activity sliding S along the W flank of the deepening trough to our W. Moisture flowing off the Gulf returns in earnest at all levels in response to the Western trough and deepening storm across Arizona/Northern Mexico as pressures fall. The Euro and its ensembles are slower and deeper with this developing storm along with the Canadian and the GEFS. The operational GFS is a bit more progressive and a tad less stormy, but there are strong indications that the Euro idea is the more likely solution and additional Winter Storm RECON is tasked for the overnight hours tonight.

Beginning Monday into Tuesday, cold air building across Western Canada is pulled S into the Great Basin while warm air with increasing Gulf moisture streams N into the Southern Plains. As we saw with the Christmas Storm, such a scenario tends to suggest winter weather in the Cold sector and a severe threat in the Warm sector. The eventual track of the upper closed cold core low will be key as to where the wintry mischief falls and exactly where the greatest threat for severe weather may unfold. Another fly in the ointment is the MJO and a noisy sub tropical jet. This is a very complex and complicated weather pattern, but the trends suggest a potent Winter Storm is ahead for next week with potential wide spread societal impacts from the West Coast into the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains on N and E into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Regions.

[Quixotic1]

Umm...could the 12z GFS and Euro look any more different in their PNA outlook? 

[bubba hotep]

The models are still thrashing around but one common theme seems to be no cold for Texas.

 

ETA:  I guess it isn't all bad as the 18z GFS individual ensembles show a few different outcomes that could get some cold into Texas.

[Srain]

Unsettled Pattern Returns To Our Region:

The pleasant pattern we have enjoyed will be winding down as an unsettled pattern takes hold by the weekend and lingers to the end of January.

A weak frontal boundary will slowly meander S on Thursday and pull up stationary some where across Central/E Texas into Southern Louisiana by Friday. Moisture will be to slowly increase as a return flow off the Gulf with increasing dew point take hold and foggy nights with cloudy warmer days become the theme as we head into the weekend. A series of short waves across the Plains may bring a chance of isolated storms and rain chances Saturday into Sunday across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana.

To our W, a developing trough will break down the upper ridge that has been present for a week to 10 days and a series of upper air disturbances dig S into California and the Baja Region of Western Mexico. Meanwhile additional energy further N across W and Southern Canada along the Polar Jet will deepen and a positive tilted trough will develop from the Great Lakes SW to NW Mexico. Pressure falls to our W will increase a southerly onshore flow from the Gulf bringing increased moisture with PW's nearing the 1.7 to 2.0 range which is very high for the time of year. To our W across N Arizona and New Mexico snow will develop as moisture and colder air from Western Canada filters S into the Great Basin and into the Rockies. A series of upper air disturbances with embedded short waves will drop S into Southern California and round the base of the trough and ripple ENE.

By early next week, a strong storm system will develop to our W and begins a slow march across Northern Mexico into New Mexico and the Southern Plains. The SPC has outlined a Day 7 Risk for Arkansas, but has noted that the Risk area will likely be reconfigured as better continuity becomes available in future model guidance and the eventual evolution of the pattern developing becomes clearer. At this time a stronger cold front looks likely in the mid next week time frame. The fly in the ointment continues to be a strong MJO (octant/phase 8) and a noisy sub tropical jet pattern that may well lead to over running moisture over a shallow cool air mass as we end January and begin February.