Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Ed Lizard]

GFS might still be off a touch on timing, but coming towards more interesting Euro Tuesday setup with further South surface low than earlier runs, with surface low West of SETX, and warm front in SW parts of HGX CWA.  Similar to last January, not a lot of low level instability, total instability at or a little below 500 J/Kg, but 400 to 600 J/Kg helicity, low cloud bases, and it produced several tornadoes right about this time last January.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=jan9_2012_storms

[Srain]

Here are some of the preliminary storm totals across Southern New Mexico and Texas. NWS El Paso as not updated their information as well as San Angelo. It does appear the Southern New Mexico into El Paso received 4 inch amount with isolated higher totals of snow. San Angelo suggests 1-4 inches across their Western Region in the Permian Basin and along and S of I-20. Here is Midland and San Antonio/Austin updated graphics. Sleet is still currently falling in San Antonio at Lackland AFB.

[DFWWeather]

GFS might still be off a touch on timing, but coming towards more interesting Euro Tuesday setup with further South surface low than earlier runs, with surface low West of SETX, and warm front in SW parts of HGX CWA.  Similar to last January, not a lot of low level instability, total instability at or a little below 500 J/Kg, but 400 to 600 J/Kg helicity, low cloud bases, and it produced several tornadoes right about this time last January.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=jan9_2012_storms

 

Severe weather (if any) with this event is going to be south and east of the DFW Metroplex. Not saying there couldn't be a few strong storms (probably elevated), but severe weather threat may be over stated for DFW with this event. Instability looks too low here with moisture still a little bit questionable. Surface temperatures also look to stay below 60°F during event. Could be a decent setup for heavy rain though if we get the moisture.

 

What may be far more impressive will be the charge of Arctic air next weekend into the following week!!!!

[Ed Lizard]

Severe weather (if any) with this event is going to be south and east of the DFW Metroplex. Not saying there couldn't be a few strong storms (probably elevated), but severe weather threat may be over stated for DFW with this event. Instability looks too low here with moisture still a little bit questionable. Surface temperatures also look to stay below 60°F during event. Could be a decent setup for heavy rain though if we get the moisture.

 

What may be far more impressive will be the charge of Arctic air next weekend into the following week!!!!

 

 

I'm IMBYing a bit.  Not a fan of cold weather unless it produces Winter p-types, and like severe storms.  New Euro is almost a day slower than GFS, and I like SETX solidly warm sectored with a strong LLJ overhead.

 

[andyhb]

The Euro actually builds 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE across South Central and Southeast TX between 00z Tuesday evening and 12z Wednesday morning, with the LLJ intensifying to over 50 kts from the SSE. The thing I'm noticing is, with the initial positive tilt configuration, the upper level jet never really assumes a more meridional flow during this period field that would scream for a linear mode (as with other closed upper systems where that can lead to problems with veer-back-veer wind profiles). The SE surface winds also raise eyebrows in terms of low level directional shear.

[wxmx]

As always, at least for my area, the CMC is too cold and wet, NAM is cold and dry, Euro is wet but warmer and GFS is dry and warm (as always is). One day (but not the 4th, I'm 99% certain), the canadian will be the right one.

 

f60.gif

 

Verification: It was wet, as a matter of fact very wet, 90% of the time last 2 days have been either light rain or drizzle...no model had precip for most of today, and it's still drizzling.

 

It was slightly colder than I expected, high for yesterday was 47, and 45 for today, with lows in the mid/upper 30s, but other than 3500ft+ places, there was no frozen precip.

[andyhb]

Pretty major looking severe possibilities towards the end of truncation on the 00z GFS...

[wxmx]

Pretty major looking severe possibilities towards the end of truncation on the 00z GFS...

 

The whole run is interesting for the region.

[Quixotic1]

Pretty major looking severe possibilities towards the end of truncation on the 00z GFS...

 

holy moly.  A weenie's white dream for the central plains/upper midwest.  

[Ed Lizard]

In La-La Land, last 4 days of the GFS,  it appears DFW doesn't get above freezing per AccuWx PPV raw numbers, and has some Winter precip....

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Bed time, but with surface low travelling from somewhere ballpark Nuevo Leon to near the Red River I-35 on Euro between Tuesday and Wednesday evening, a ~40 knot 850 mb jet at 96 hours strengthening to near 60 knots at 120 hours, and Euro AccuWx PPV test showing about 3 inches of rain in that period, well, not staying up another ~90 minutes for PPV 6 hour maps/forecast skew-Ts, but things seem generally favorable per Euro for SETX t-storm action.

[DFWWeather]

There is some -30°C + air showing up at H85 in the western provinces on the ECMWF ensemble/extended that gets discharged southward in about 10 to 14 days. This would be after the intial modified Arctic front next weekend, so into next week. That would be the real McCoy if a McFarland signature can get going (or even a partial one). The KDFW NWS thinks there might be a reasonable shot at something happening with this in this morning's AFD. This will be interesting to say the least!

 

Climatology: It was been about 17 years since DFW as seen low temperatures dip below 10°F officially at DFW Airport (the last time was in February 1996). This is the longest stretch on record and far surpasses anything since records have been kept. Based on weather records back to September 1898, we should on average be seeing lows in the single digits 1 in 4 years. Goes to show that low temperatures have really warmed over the last 20 years in this region.

[Ed Lizard]

No maps yet, but 12Z Euro has two inches of rain on AccuWx PPV test products with temps over 16ºC, some falling with temp just below 20ºC ( I can see 6 hour text guidance, but no maps yet), and in January, temps pushing 20ºC very possible surface/near surface based storms. Timing is still Wednesday afternoon on Euro for SETX

 

ETA

 

Euro 850 mb jet pushing 50 knots just West of us Wednesday morning,

[Ed Lizard]

*IF* the STJ stayed active a major Arctic high might not kill plants, with precip/cloud cover keeping nighttime mins above 20F.  Of course, some plants would still die just from prolonged sub-freezing temps.

And if the sky cleared out with an Arctic airmass being refreshed with snow/ice on the grounds, everything would die.

People w/o palms and citrus might think they want a true 1050 mb McFarland, but when every palm tree in Houston (save the Sabal palms) is dead, parks, zoos, strip malls, Pappadeaux, wherever, well, it'll cause the kind of sadness a guy like me feels when he sees all the dead trees being cleared from Memorial Park.

I might consider replanting with the Sabal Texana, native to Texas generally South of I-10 almost as far West as SAT.  But all the palm sellers in the HOU area with plants too large to move inside with have nothing to sell.

 Not me, a guy with Texas native Sabals.  I have the cold hardy California or Mexican fan palms (or perhaps hybrid California/Mexican fans, aka "filibusta')

 

 

 

ETA:  Each year, Tio Jose, who lives in the urban heat island near Hobby Airport, gives us grapefruits.  And a real McFarland would kill citrus even in the RGV...

[Ed Lizard]

GFS, which is trending toward the slower Euro solution would imply more of a heavy rain threat than a severe threat, although I'm not giving up on that, as I briefly mentioned in AMS/Austin thread

 

 

GFS is 3 to 4 inches in SETX and 99% PW for January, quick check of Euro AccuWx PPV text is about 5 inch storm totals for Houston, about 3 inches Austin.

[DoctorMu]

That's kinda like setting up a target for Mother Nature, Ed 

 

12Z GFS has some really bitter stuff west and in the Rockies before very cold stuff settles over SETX,  Ideally insect killing in CLL while plant sparing S of I-10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DFWWeather]

I am still approaching major cold snap with caution for the week of Jan 15th (at least for us down in Texas). I do agree there will be a good charge of Canadian/Polar air around Sunday the 13th, but this will be no colder than what was experienced Christmas week, in fact, it looks a bit warmer than that. Furthermore, unfortunately, it also looks dry.  Anyhow, most guidance seems split about any significant Arctic air, with almost half the guidance keeping it bottled up near Canadian/US Border much like the latest runs to the ECMWF. I still have not seen a McFarland develop on any of the guidance, but today's 0z 500mb mean of the GFS off the Penn State ewall was closest, but is trending away from that at 12z. It bothers me a lot that the ECMWF is not on board at all.

[My Weather Today]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

858 PM CST SUN JAN 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE 00Z MAPS AND WATER VAPOR THE UPPER

TROUGH THAT HAS KEPT THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL TROUGHING IN PLACE

HAS CLEARED THE AREA. SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOW WIND ON OUR

OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS IS FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX SO WILL LET

THE SCA EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK REMNANT

TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER WHICH I THINK IS BEING

HELD IN PLACE BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT

OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST ON THE

BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE OVERALL NET CONVERGENCE OF THE

BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM

SHOULD STEADILY NEGATE THIS...BUT MAY KEEP THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS

IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THE

AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX CAN BE TRACED WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS WHERE IT PUSHES EAST OF THE

STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WE EXPECT TO BRING BUSY WEATHER TO

THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS

SPLIT JET IS FORCING THE UPPER RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS EASTWARD

AND SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET SHOULD START TO

STREAM INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY 2 TO 4 AM OR SO. AT THE SURFACE

VERY SLIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND AND RUC/LAPS

SUGGESTS THIS MIGHT BE SLIGHT LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE

NOSE OF THAT UPPER JET WORKING OVERHEAD. NEVERTHELESS IT HAS

RAISED SFC DEWPOINTS TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 281 WESTWARD UP SEVERAL

DEGREES IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE

OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FIELDS IN RESPONSE

RAISING THE MIN TEMPS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST

ACROSS THE CWA. THIS INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY THE

ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDS AND THE PERSISTENT MIDDLE CLOUD OVER THE

SOUTHEAST CWA IN KEEPING US SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

BASED ON HOW THE JET AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LOOK IN WATER

VAPOR VERSUS MODEL FIELDS....SPECIFICALLY THE PORTION OVER

NORTHWEST MEXICO EAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED OUR

WINDS AFTER ABOUT 12PM A FEW MPH. BELIEVE NOW WE MAY SEE A

BREEZIER DAY THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AS TROUGHING BUILDS

QUICKLY IN OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WEST OF

THE RIDGE AXIS THAT SHOULD BE CLEARING US BY ABOUT 6AM TOMORROW.

STRONG MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE NEW NAM CONTINUING TO

SUGGEST A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA AND MOVING NORTH.

WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. CURRENT FORECAST

HAS ISO TO SCT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING AFTER 6PM...AND THE

TREND OF THE 00Z NAM IS TO SLOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING

JUST A BIT SO SOMEWHERE IN THAT BALLPARK SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO BE A

GOOD PROJECTION SO WILL CONTINUE THAT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES

2 TO 3 DEGREES IN PLACES BASED ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROJECTED 850MB

THICKNESSES AND MY SUPPOSITION THAT SOME OF THE ADVECTION AND

FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELED GIVEN THE STRENGTH

OF THE UPPER LOW.

GOING A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE THE 00Z NAM ALSO PROJECTS A

45 TO 60KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY

NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER JET PUTS THE

REGION IN ABOUT 50 TO 55KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 30 TO 35 KTS

OF 0-1KM SHEAR PRODUCING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM

HELICITY...WHICH IS AN UPWARD TREND FROM RUN TO RUN. NAM/GFS ALSO

CONTINUE TO WANT TO TILT THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE MORE NEGATIVE AS

IT SWINGS THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION DEEPENING THE SURFACE AND

LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AHEAD OF IT MORE THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERE ARE

OBVIOUSLY STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION MIGHT

INITIATE BUT THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE CERTAINLY POSES A

NOTEWORTHY RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WIND/HAIL/TORNADOES AND

HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS

POSSIBILITY

[wxmx]

After the TX and N LA deluge these next 3 days, it looks like a brief period of moderating temps, before a 1-2 punch cold Jan 13-18th. The 2nd punch looks the more interesting, with the probable inclusion of arctic flow and a deep trough with a some shortwave energy involved. Getting a bit tingly...but just a bit . Fly in the ointment is that the STJ looks a bit dry.

[Ed Lizard]

It appears MBY is right on the 5% tornado w/I 25 miles line...

 

...THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
   THE PERIOD...AS QG FORCING FOR ASCENT GRADUALLY INCREASES.
   CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED ATOP A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
  
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO SPREAD WNWWD ACROSS
   THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...WEAK SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED IN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
   EVENING.  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD HINDER OVERALL CAPE...AND THUS LARGE HAIL REMAINS
   UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS...AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   REMAINS EVIDENT. 
  
   STORM MODE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE DEGREE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL...WITH
   STORMS LIKELY TENDING TOWARD LINEAR/MCS-TYPE ORGANIZATION INTO THE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR.
   THUS...GREATEST WIND POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE DURING THE SECOND
   HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL MOST LIKELY TO EXIST
   WITH POSSIBLY MORE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS S TX AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX
   COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NWD ALONG THE TX COAST
   THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
  
   ATTM...GIVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
   LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15%
   WIND/5% TORNADO PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
 

[CranberryWX]

In Houston for the next two weeks. I woke up to loud thunder and pouring rain this morning.

By the way I'll be joining you all in Houston permanently some time this Spring.

[Quixotic1]

After the TX and N LA deluge these next 3 days, it looks like a brief period of moderating temps, before a 1-2 punch cold Jan 13-18th. The 2nd punch looks the more interesting, with the probable inclusion of arctic flow and a deep trough with a some shortwave energy involved. Getting a bit tingly...but just a bit . Fly in the ointment is that the STJ looks a bit dry.

With each run, the op GFS seems to be pulling the football away from us.  The ensemble members from earlier were all over the place.  Still on board? 

[wxmx]

With each run, the op GFS seems to be pulling the football away from us.  The ensemble members from earlier were all over the place.  Still on board? 

 

Looks like the first wave of cold (14th-18th), will be mostly canadian cold...AO needs to dip further for real cross polar flow, the NE ridge didn't connect to a ridge in the arctic, but possibility will linger for a few weeks still, so I'm still on board. Long range GFS has a 1065mb high just N of AK. I set it as an example of how the pattern is still favorable for fantasy model output.

[Ed Lizard]

VCT is 63ºF/62ºF w/ a NE wind, but based on rotation I can see from HGX radar, if I were a degreed met (not) working at WFO CRP (don't), I'd be tempted to drop a warning on that cell just in case it is surface based...

 

 

ETA:  My animated .gif isn't animating, the last frame is the juiciest, trust me.

 

ETA2:  It has cycled down some anyway...

[Ed Lizard]

HGX thinks we get into the warm sector around morning rush.

 

 

And does HGX read Jorge's posts?

 

 

WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE RELATIVELY STRONG MJO
SIGNAL MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO PHASE 5. THIS
SIGNAL...COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE ARCTIC. OF
INTEREST ARE THE VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FORECAST ACROSS THE
ARCTIC LATER THIS MONTH (1050-1060 MB) WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IF THEY WERE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. WHILE ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATTER
PORTION OF JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE OF TEXAS. 38

38
 

 

[DFWWeather]

HGX thinks we get into the warm sector around morning rush.

 

 

And does HGX read Jorge's posts?

 

Unfortunately, the GFS operational and practically the entire suite of ECMWF product is just not on board for a major Arctic intrusion into Texas. I still have not seen a bona fide McFarland signature yet to the upper pattern, and that is needed to drive the harsh cold deep into Texas.  However, I did check the 8 to 10 day mean 500 mb 12z just now off the Penn State ewall and the GFS does show something that could be a McFarland or very close, but I can't tell if it is the most recent run or yesterday's run. If it is the operational GFS is clueless. The ECMWF mean is shearing out the Arctic air east into another trough over southeast Canada and not nearly as amplified as the GFS. UPDATE: That was yesterday's GFS 12z 8 to 10 day mean I was looking at. Today's version is much more flat and resembles more of what the ECMWF has been showing. Just simply not a pattern to produce a major Arctic intrusion into Texas. At least not yet!

 

Having said this, a colder pattern is definetly unfolding, but right now, I don't see it any colder than what we had Christmas week (at least for DFW). Which is not too out of the ordinary for slightly below normal January.

 

Later next week looks quite interesting on the ECMWF (today's 12z) for a potential significant winter storm for DFW! Excellent pattern for such an event, vortex near Hudson Bay with elongated, positively tilted trough extending southwest towards desert southwest with a significant piece of energy rolling through southern jet.

[DoctorMu]

4.5 inches on the backyard rain gauge and counting

 

 

[wxmx]

Yet another winter storm (ULL or shortwave) lurks in the near future. There will be Canadian air involved, and for mid January that's more than enough for most of the region...with the probable exception of the very deep south of TX and NE MX, which, unless the ULL can track a lot further south than modeled, need a lot more than that. Like the past 2 storms, SW to C TX are the areas I favor for the greatest threat of wintry precipitation.

[Big O]

Yet another winter storm (ULL or shortwave) lurks in the near future. There will be Canadian air involved, and for mid January that's more than enough for most of the region...with the probable exception of the very deep south of TX and NE MX, which, unless the ULL can track a lot further south than modeled, need a lot more than that. Like the past 2 storms, SW to C TX are the areas I favor for the greatest threat of wintry precipitation.

 

What time frame are you looking at with respect to the ULL that "lurks in the near future?"

[wxmx]

What time frame are you looking at with respect to the ULL that "lurks in the near future?"

 

14th-18th