Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Srain]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
139 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS ON APPROACH FOR THE
BORDERLAND REGION FOR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT ARRIVING IN THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS COLD AIR
MASS WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOOR ELEVATIONS
FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH THIS STORM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THAT AREA. EL PASO AND
OTERO COUNTIES COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT WITH SNOW ENDING BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY.

NMZ414>417-TXZ418>424-031200-
/O.UPG.KEPZ.WS.A.0001.130103T1500Z-130104T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KEPZ.WS.W.0001.130103T1500Z-130104T1500Z/
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MESCALERO...MOUNTAIN PARK...TIMBERON...
CLOUDCROFT...SUNSPOT...APACHE SUMMIT...MAYHILL...SACRAMENTO...
PINON...CROW FLATS...DOWNTOWN...WEST EL PASO...UPPER VALLEY...
FORT BLISS...SOCORRO...EAST AND NORTHEAST EL PASO...HUECO TANKS...
LOMA LINDA...DELL CITY...CORNUDAS...SALT FLAT...SIERRA BLANCA...
FABENS...TORNILLO...FORT HANCOCK
139 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING.



* EVENT: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
  MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS LOWLANDS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF
  2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS COULD
  RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME EAST
  FACING SLOPES.

* TIMING: SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AND
  LAST OFF AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* IMPACT: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
  WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING
  SNOW. ROAD SURFACES WILL BECOME LOCALLY DANGEROUS PACKED WITH
  SNOW AND ICE.

* WINDS: EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
  BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ON WEST
  SLOPES AND THROUGH PASSES. WINDS LESSENING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW LEVELS: A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SO SNOW LEVELS
  WILL BE DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOOR FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
BALLINGER...TO MENARD TO SONORA LINE...

...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS WEST OF A STERLING CITY...TO ELDORADO...TO SONORA LINE.
WITH COLD...DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION
MAY START INITIALLY AS RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET...BUT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TXZ064>066-071>073-076>078-168-030600-
/O.NEW.KSJT.WW.Y.0001.130103T2100Z-130104T1200Z/
STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-
SUTTON-MENARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...
BALLINGER...WINTERS...MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...
ELDORADO...SONORA...MENARD
254 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

* EVENT....LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA CAUSING
  HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A STERLING
  CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE
  WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.

 

[DoctorMu]

A McFarland signature would be awesome.  December 83 and December 89 come to mind.  Jan/Feb of 96 too.  Not going to start wrapping pipes yet.  

 

 

Insect whacking good.  Bring it.  Nat gas is cheap.  With the alkaline water here, I can't grow decent flowers and subtropicals anyway.  Just brambles, boxwoods, and Tifway 419 (by accident).

[wxmx]

PV over or near Hudson Bay is one of the requirements for a McFarland signature, but the most important piece of the puzzle are 570dm+ heights over AK and north (582dm+! during the 1983 outbreak)...with a corresponding 1050mb+ arctic high.

[DoctorMu]

shaken, not stirred.

 

 

 

[wxmx]

Already snow is being reported in the Sierra to my south...around 30mi to my SW as the crow flies...not sure about the altitude, probably 6500+ ft.

[DFWWeather]

PV over or near Hudson Bay is one of the requirements for a McFarland signature, but the most important piece of the puzzle are 570dm+ heights over AK and north (582dm+! during the 1983 outbreak)...with a corresponding 1050mb+ arctic high.

 

Not seeing anything like that showing up on the mean 500 mb composite of either the ECMWF or the GFS. The ECMWF was showing what the GFS is showing now a week ago, but has considerably backed down. The ECMWF weeklies are also significantly warmer around the 15th, than what they were showing before. I think there is the poential for a period of colder weather, but at this time, it does not look any colder than what we saw Christmas week.

[wxmx]

 Not seeing anything like that showing up on the mean 500 mb composite of either the ECMWF or the GFS. The ECMWF was showing what the GFS is showing now a week ago, but has considerably backed down. The ECMWF weeklies are also significantly warmer around the 15th, than what they were showing before. I think there is the poential for a period of colder weather, but at this time, it does not look any colder than what we saw Christmas week.

 

I'm not backing it up on modelling, yet...especially considering the 12-20 days range I gave is mostly out of the op models range. The overall pattern is shaping up in the op models, with a PV vortex near HB and increasing heights in the EPO region...and my assumption is that the strat MMW will burst the ridging over or near AK in that timeframe. But like I said, it's an uncommon event, so probabilities are still low, but signals are growing for at least a period of extended arctic cold.

[wxmx]

I lived in Houston in 1962 and we certainly do not want a repeat of that Arctic Outbreak down here. It made the 1983/1989 events look rather paltry in comparison...  

 

I didn't, but that's the year that has recorded the lowest temp in Tampico in the last 60 years (-3 C).

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm.... I know all the chatter is about a possilbe McFarland signature in the long range but the 18z GFS and 00z NAM have peaked my interest about some snow possibly sneaking into the DFW area over the next couple of days.

 

ETA: FWD has a graphic out now

 

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
900 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...A VARIETY OF WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE NEXT WEEK...
...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

COLDER CONDITIONS CAME TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 2ND...2013.
THESE COLDER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE TO
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE.

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH COLD RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE COLD RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES
TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO WEST TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT CAME TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND IN JANUARY OF 2012.
 

[ams30721us]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1000 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAINS COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

NEAR THE COAST...AND RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS HAPPENING.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS GOING TO BE ISSUED

THIS EVENING.

00Z MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING CHANCES OF PORTIONS OF OUR AREA

POSSIBLY GETTING SOME KIND OF RAIN/SLEET MIX THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING. GOING TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE NEW

MODEL DATA AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR

THIS WINTRY MIX POSSIBILITY. 42

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Mix of winter precipitation possible tonight for the northern parts of SE TX.
 
Another piece of energy currently approaching SW TX this morning will swing ENE tonight and Friday. Surface high pressure currently over NW TX has dried the area after the light rains yesterday, but moisture is lurking just to the SW and this will return to the region this afternoon and evening. Fairly decent lift is expected to affect the area north of I-10 after midnight tonight with precipitation banding developing from SC TX into SE TX.

Current soundings have a large dry layer just above the 900mb layer up to around 750mb or roughly 8000 ft thick at IAH to around 7500 ft thick at College Station. There is a significant dry layer with RH below 20% around the 850mb level. All of this dry air above the surface is important in attempting to determine what type of precipitation may fall tonight into Friday. The soundings yesterday morning were similar to today, yet a little more moist and there was just enough cooling in the mid levels from the evaporation of the precipitation falling to allow sleet to reach the ground although the temperature profile showed a extensive area of above freezing temperatures. Since the air is slightly drier this morning in the mid levels, some precipitation falling through this layer tonight will help cool the temperatures in this layer from the 35-38 degree range toward the 31-34 degree range across the northern parts of the region. The best potential for cooling will be north of a line from Columbus to The Woodlands to Livingston where lift will be strongest and enough precipitation falling to help bring the mid layer toward saturation. Using the wet bulb surface temperature the lowest surface temperature I could get was 33-34 at College Station on the forecast sounding early Friday morning…if the GFS and NAM have the correct surface temperature and dewpoint which compared to the current conditions they seem to be aligned well. A wet bulb temperature at BUSH IAH for Friday morning is closer to 36-37 degrees. (Wet bulb temperature is the process of cooling the air temperature toward the dewpoint as a result of bringing the air column toward saturation….RH of 100% this results in the temperature cooling and the dewpoint rising until the air becomes saturated).
 
So with all that said, the freezing layer above the surface will be shrinking overnight as precipitation falls into the dry air and cools the air to below freezing. The forecast soundings over our northern counties from College Station to Huntsville reduce the above freezing layer to less than 3000 ft thick early Friday, but maintain surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Think the warm layer will be short enough to allow a mix of sleet and rain in the region from College Station to Huntsville, it is possible that the lower air column could cool enough to allow all sleet in this area. Precipitation intensity  is expected to be on the lighter side (less than .10 of an inch) which suggest little if any accumulation especially if surface temperatures remain in the 33-35 range. Could be a few spots that drop to 31-32 degrees under some heavier precipitation in the northern counties and this could result in some very minor accumulation on elevated surfaces. It must be stressed that only a trace of ice on bridges and overpasses can be extremely dangerous. Should the next round of models come in slightly wetter or cooler over this region, we would likely be into Winter Weather Advisory criteria…and the trend over the past 24 hours has been toward a wetter system.

North of a line from Columbus to Kingwood to Livingston, the air column will require more work as lift will be weaker in this area and the above freezing layer is much thicker. Given the fact that sleet fell yesterday, I would not be surprised to see a mixture of light rain and sleet north of the above mentioned line. Throughout this region surface temperatures will be in the mid 30’s and any sleet will melt on contact. South of this line most of what falls will be liquid with a few ice pellets.
 
Precipitation Types (Tonight-mid morning Friday):

College Station to Huntsville North: rain/sleet mix possibly changing to all sleet with some snow mix. Some minor accumulation possible
 
Columbus to Katy to Kingwood to Livingston North: rain/sleet mix. No accumulation
 
Columbus to Katy to Kingwood to Livingston South: mainly rain with a few sleet pellets. No accumulation
 
Profile temperatures should warm enough to return the area to all rain by midday Friday. Cloudy and cold conditions will continue into Saturday as the area remains under the grips of an active sub-tropical jet stream aloft. Could see a few showers continue into Saturday before finally clearing on Sunday.
 
Extended:
While much focus is currently on the short term…the extended will not be outdone as models are showing a potential big weather maker arriving early to mid next week. Shear and instability profiles are looking very favorable for what could be a fairly significant severe weather outbreak over TX including the threat for tornadoes. The system has many similarities to the 1-9-12 flooding and severe weather/tornado event, but even projected stronger wind fields. 
 
 

[Ed Lizard]

Euro AccuWx PPV showing area of greater than 500 J/Kg CAPE over I-35 corridor area at 0Z Wednesday (Tuesday evening) and shows impressive rains (well over an inch) 12 hours between 0Z WEdnesday and 12Z Wednesday on the PPV between AUS and HOU.  As far as wind energy, low level jet, and turning with height, I'll let the free Euro do the talking.

 

Still 6 days out, and at least as interesting to me as I-35 seeing a mix or high terrain around Alpine pushing a foot.

 

 

[Srain]

A lot of reports now coming in across the San Antonio area of sleet...

 

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-032000-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE
618 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RAIN AND SLEET OR JUST SLEET NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE INCLUDING AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO
HUNTSVILLE. SLEET AND RAIN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO
12 PM FRIDAY FOR THESE AREAS. SO FAR ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT NO ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
SLEET ACCUMULATION TO MAKE ROADS...OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVEL. PLEASE MONITOR FORECASTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD
ICE ACCUMULATIONS BECOME POSSIBLE.

SHOULD LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR BECOME COLDER AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE MOIST...SLEET AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A SEALY TO KINGWOOD LINE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY. RIGHT NOW RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET MAY
BE POSSIBLE. NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOUSTON
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
 

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

TXZ171>173-187>194-202>209-217>225-228-040000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-
TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-
GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...BANDERA...
FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...
EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1143 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TOWARDS THE AUSTIN METRO AREA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED
PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY MORNING SOME LIGHT SLEET MAY ALSO MIX WITH
THE RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT SOUTHWARD TO
HIGHWAY 90. THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL END AROUND NOON FRIDAY
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING FROM THE BASE OF THE CLOUD DECK DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR VAL VERDE...
EDWARDS...REAL...AND KERR COUNTIES FOR SNOW UP TO ONE INCH.
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
 

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CST THU JAN 03 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM THROUGH SWRN TX
  
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
  
   VALID 031810Z - 032315Z
  
   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO
   1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   SRN NM INTO WEST TEXAS. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO
   DEVELOP FARTHER SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
  
   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF LOCALLY MODERATE
   TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM
   SRN NM THROUGH WRN AND SWRN TX. THE PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. THE 12Z RAOB FROM
   EL PASO INDICATED AN UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB
   SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING. AN UPPER
   JET STREAK LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE BIG
   BEND THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ASCENT
   WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...LIKELY AUGMENTING SNOWFALL RATES
   FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  
   ..DIAL.. 01/03/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
 

[DoctorMu]

Some wintry mix on its way to CLL.  Fingers crossed for that to be mostly frozen tonight,

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX1148 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE&&.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THISMORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN AS A LARGE CLOUD SHIELDACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ONRADAR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL HOLDOFF FOR NOW ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON ASMUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE SURFACE.MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSSTHE REGION ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK COLD ENOUGH TOSUPPORT SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THEREGION FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...WITH A WARM LAYER IN THE LOWEST 1500FEET FEEL THAT A RAIN SLEET MIX...PREDOMINANTLY RAIN...IS THE MOSTLIKELY IMPACT. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF RAPL IN THE TAFS TOINCLUDE BOTH CLL AND UTS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUNDING PROFILESAPPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A COLD RAIN.38&&

[Chinook]

Wow. Snowing in Wink, Texas. Average high for January 3rd: 59F.

[DFWWeather]

240 hour of today's 12z run of the deterministic ECMWF looking a lot better of a good dump of cold air into Plains. Not quite the McFarland signature, but wouldn't take much for it to move toward that. Full latitude continental US trough with some decent Arctic air moving southward out of the west provinces of Canada. Looks like a bit of cross polar flow too. Nice vortex sitting near Hudson Bay. Would like to see even more amplified ridging into the Arctic circle out west though!

[bubba hotep]

Looks like this system is going to come up short for DFW:

 

[wxmx]

My parents flew yesterday to El Paso to visit my grandma and family...looking at the FB's photos, it looks like they have almost 3" on the ground.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/04/13 0018Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13                 2345Z              JANKOT
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD TO HVY SNOWS SHAPING UP
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH VORT ROTATING ACROSS N MEXICO
PROVIDING DYNAMICS NECESSARY TO INDUCE LIFT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN ON THE INCREASE PER BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WITH
.4-.6" PWATS WRAPPING NW INTO DISCUSSION REGION. THIS LEVEL OF MOISTURE
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RUNNING 115-120% OF NORMAL.
MEANWHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
OVER W TX/SE NM SUGGESTING HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP ALONG
A LINE FROM PRESIDIO ENE TO CROCKETT COUNTY. EXPECT RATES OF 1-2"/HR
IN BEST BANDS PROVIDING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 06Z. BEST RATES
SHOULD OCCUR IN UP-SLOPE FAVORED REGIONS W TX.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0030-0630Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT MOD TO HEAVY SNOWS TO INCREASE OVER W TX AS VORT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH BEST OMEGAS MOVING ACROSS W TX. RATES
OF 1-2"/HR IS EXPECTED IN BEST BANDS WITH UPWARDS OF 4-8"+ POSSIBLE
THROUGH 6Z.
 

[bubba hotep]

Texas has been a pretty good snow state so far this winter

 

[bubba hotep]

My parents flew yesterday to El Paso to visit my grandma and family...looking at the FB's photos, it looks like they have almost 3" on the ground.

 

I've been to El Paso and number of times for work but it always seems to be hot and windy.

[wall_cloud]

were you there in the winter?  They are are nearly 4,000 ft in elevation.

[Roy]

Starting to think Midland will get nada here. Some light snow this morning, but the snow dissipates before it goes far enough north. Some big busts here tomorrow with 1-4 inches forecasted unless it makes more northward progress tonight.

[Srain]

As expected the warmer lower levels/surface temps have kept any frozen sleet/rain mix N of Houston, so no travel issues here. Further W, El Paso to Midland/Odessa and San Angelo or areas along and S of I-20 have received 2-4 inches of snow with some higher totals nearing 6+ in a few locations. Sleet reports continue across the San Antonio/Austin areas and there is likely some sleet/rain mix occurring near College Station down to Brenham and on E across Madisonville Huntsville and Lake Livingston.

All eyes turn W as another potent closed core upper low moves inland along the California Coast on Sunday setting the stage for our next best chance of rain and even storms, some likely severe. There remains some timing issues with the GFS being more progressive and shearing out that upper low, while the Euro keeps a closed core low tracking across Northern Mexico into Texas. Expect changes in the days ahead until this system enters the RAOB network on Sunday.

Following the mid week event, big changes are still indicated by the longer range guidance both operational and all the ensembles. A Long wave trough or a trough extending from Canada S into Mexico will usher in a very stormy and cold pattern across the West and Plains. Colder temps will extend well S into Mexico. Stay Tuned for further updates on that developing Weather Headline as we get closer and beyond the next Tuesday/Wednesday severe potential.

[Ed Lizard]

SXUS74 KEWX 041331

RERAUS

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX

727 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF A TRACE WAS REPORTED AT THE

AUSTIN BERGSTROM AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIES

THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1972.

$$

 

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Thus far only a few reports of sleet across the northern ½ of SE TX overnight as the sub cloud layer has been very dry and much of what is showing up on the radar is evaporating before reaching the ground.
 
Heavier mix of rain/sleet/snow has been confined to the Hill Country and SW TX since yesterday afternoon where best moisture and lift reside. Main question over the next 48 hours is how much rainfall will develop across SE TX. Coastal troughing is starting to take place along the lower TX coast as the main upper level low centered near El Paso this morning begins to move NE over the next 24 hours. A strong disturbance in the SW flow aloft over N MX will translate across the coastal bend of TX tonight into Saturday and this combined with increasing warm air advection and finally a reduction in the dry layer centered near 850mb should support a better chance of rain tonight into Saturday for mainly the coastal areas. Still not looking for much accumulation of rainfall…generally below .25 of an inch as what falls will be mainly in the form of light rain and drizzle. With thick cloud cover and period of rainfall expect little change in the temperatures today through Saturday with about a 5-8 degree change between the low and highs and most areas will stay locked in the 40’s.

 

Trough axis will finally move east of TX  late Saturday into Sunday as this cold and cloudy pattern will finally break down. Skies will clear by early Sunday morning and expect temperatures on Sunday under sunny skies to reach the mid-upper 50’s.

 

Early next week another strong storm system will drop into the SW US and begin to move into the southern plains toward the Tuesday/Wednesday time period. GFS is by far the fast and most progressive with this feature while the ECMWF is slower, stronger and further south with the CMC nearly splitting the difference. Will lean toward the faster GFS solution as the southern stream pattern remains fairly progressive. This will bring warm air advection and a chance for showers back into the area by late Monday. Still much uncertainty in the surface features for Tuesday and the amount of moisture and instability which will be available at that time, but this system will need to be watched for a possible severe weather threat especially if the ECMWF model is correct.