Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Warm and humid conditions expected through the weekend into next week.

Warm air advection has returned a humid air mass to the region. Area radars show a fair amount of shallow showers over the NW Gulf starting to make their way toward the coast and even inland around Matagorda Bay. While moisture profiles are deep enough for a few showers today, think most of what develops will be focused SW of Houston around Matagorda Bay where the moisture is deepest which matches well with the current radar trends and the TX Tech WRF modeling. Cool front dropping into N TX will stall to the north of our region resulting in continued moderate to at times strong onshore winds, humid conditions, and warm temperatures into the weekend.

Cannot rule out a shower or two nearly each day as moisture pumps into the region off the western Gulf. Today and Thursday show the best rain chances, but that is only in the 20% range. Friday-Saturday slightly drier air rotates westward across the Gulf and into the TX coast while the next storm system currently off the CA coast moves into the central plains. Nearly all lift and energy with this system will pass west and north of SE TX with high rain chances over W TX this weekend tapering to 10-20% for a passing shower over this region.

Weak front will approach the region from the exiting central US storm system by early next week, but it is highly questionable if the boundary will even make it this far south before stalling out and returning northward…looks like the continuation of and “Indian Summer” for the next 5-10 days with lows in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and highs near 90.

Long range progs have been back and forth with a pattern change toward the 20-22 of the month in which a strong cold front may cross the region bringing a cold air mass and good rain chances…for now this is a long way off…but there appears to be little happening weather wise until around the 18-22 of the month.

[somethingfunny]

I'm posting this segment of FWD's AFD about our somewhat unexpected foggy morning solely because Dennis Cavanaugh was amazing enough to use the words in the bolded sentence together in one sentence, in an aviation discussion:

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...

UPDATE FROM THE 12Z TAFS...FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE CRASHED AROUND

THE METROPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES

TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THESE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS

THE BOARD BY 15Z. RIGHT NOW THE METROPLEX IS AT THE SHALLOWEST

PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND DEEPER

COOL AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 KTS OR SO

RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR

LEVELS THROUGH 16Z OR SO...HOWEVER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR

LEVELS THEREAFTER AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE FRONTAL

INVERSION WHICH WILL ACTUALLY LIFT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE

METROPLEX BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST IF IT STOPS MOVING

SOUTH FOR SOME REASON AS THIS WOULD RESULT IN LINGERING IFR CIGS

THIS MORNING.

CAVANAUGH

[Ed Lizard]

I've been to some Texas-OU games at the Cotton Bowl, and its is an old stadium, and it seriously takes an hour to leave after a game.

But it looks like the possible squall line will come very late afternoon, and not catch average fans leaving Fair Park, just the people who stayed behind to party.

[somethingfunny]

I've been to some Texas-OU games at the Cotton Bowl, and its is an old stadium, and it seriously takes an hour to leave after a game.

But it looks like the possible squall line will come very late afternoon, and not catch average fans leaving Fair Park, just the people who stayed behind to party.

If I were there, I'd climb up to the top tier of seating and take pictures of the squall line approaching with the Dallas skyline in the foreground. That would be a bossly photo opportunity.

[Srain]

An active weather day ahead for our neighbors to the W and N of Metro Houston. Strong storm potential is increasing as a stationary boundary lies from the Rio Grande Valley NE into N Central Texas. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms outlined with damaging winds and hail being the primary threat. The also remains a chance for heavy rainfall N of Houston as the Pacific front stalls and washes out.

A weak northerly flow will develop across Texas tomorrow into Monday before another short wave and abundant moisture from a developing EPAC Tropical system cross the area late Tuesday/Wednesday. A stronger cold front will cross the area sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame bringing much cooler weather to the area and yet another chance of heavy rainfall before we clear out.

There still are suggestions of a much stronger Polar Cold Front dropping S in the late October time frame and even some hints of a potential tropical troublemaker developing in the Western Caribbean and moving NW into the SW Gulf before that strong front arrives. After a rather quiet period on the weather front, it does appear a more active pattern is developing as we head toward the end of October and just perhaps the first real Blue Norther that will bring much colder temps across the Lone Star State. After all, it is getting to be that time of year. We will see.

[Srain]

Looking ahead to the coming week, there remain some differences in the guidance and it appears the Euro/Canadian may have a better handle on the placement of the large upper low forecast to drop S into the Plains/Western Great Lakes region on Wednesday. The GFS appears to far N as forecaster Kocin of the HPC explains this morning in their Extended Discussion. That would tend to suggest a fairly strong cold front will dive S into Texas Wednesday and exit off the Coast early Thursday.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

926 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

VALID 12Z THU OCT 18 2012 - 12Z SUN OCT 21 2012

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT

THEN GOES RAPIDLY DOWNHILL BY DAY 5/FRIDAY...AFTER WHICH

PREDICTABILITY THROUGH DAY 7/SUNDAY IS BELOW AVERAGE.

A STRONGLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH

EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DOMINATES THE FORECAST...WITH THE

DETAILS OF THE AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING WITH CONSIDERABLE

PREDICTABILITY. THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS START OFF IN GOOD

AGREEMENT ON DAY 3/WEDNESDAY BUT LARGE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW

UP BY DAY 4/THURSDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MEANS ARE

SLOWER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH A DEVELOPING MEAN UPPER LOW MOVING

TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MEAN UPPER LOW

OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE EUROPEAN LOW OVER

CENTRAL IOWA.

IN GENERAL...THE OVERNIGHT OPERATIONAL FORECASTS SEEMED TO SUPPORT

THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MEANS OVER THE GEFS/NAEFS MEANS WITH REGARD

TO LOCATIONS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND UPPER 500 MB LOW. THE

OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY

SEEMED TO FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE

MEANS IN PARTICULAR.

THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUED TO EXPAND BY DAY 5/FRIDAY WITH THE

FORECASTS OF THE 500 MB LOW MEAN POSITION EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN

ILLINOIS TO NORTH OF LAKE HURON BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST AND THE GEFS FORECASTS. THE CANADIAN/NAEFS FORECAST FELL

IN BETWEEN THE TWO. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS...THE LEADING COLD

FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS THE EDGE OF THE

APPALACHIANS IN THE 00Z ECMWF RUN WHILE THE FRONT IS ALONG OR JUST

PASSING EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE 00Z GFS FORECAST.

Looking further into the future toward late October, the longer range guidance continues to advertise a much strong cold front and plentiful rainfall and even some potential for another round of severe weather as what may well be the first real Blue Norther of the season dives S into the Lone Star State bringing much colder temps and a taste of winter weather to the Southern Plains and even perhaps as far S as the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma and possibly even N Texas. We will see.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cool front has slipped off the coast overnight with slightly drier air working into the region.

Surface high pressure will be building southward today with the air mass drying with time. Hurricane Paul in the eastern Pacific Ocean will spread mid and high level moisture NE into TX today and Tuesday. A short wave trough in the upper flow will move across the state on Tuesday and work with the mid and upper level moisture to produce widespread rainfall aloft. Dry sub-cloud layers (low levels) will result in much of the rainfall aloft falling and evaporating before reaching the ground. Enough low level moisture may be present southwest of the Houston area to allow a few light showers, but the currently thinking is that the radar will look active, but ground amounts will be on the low side. Should models be under-estimating low level moisture quality, then rain chances and amounts will need to be raised for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Next cold front will pass across the region late Wednesday. Again moisture looks lacking with best rain chances mainly east of I-45 where southerly flow has a bit longer duration to bring Gulf moisture inland. Air mass behind this front is cool and will result in lows falling into the 50’s by the end of the week and highs near 80 for Friday and Saturday. Deep eastern US trough should keep the cool air mass in place for a few days, ahead of a potentially strong cold front toward the early to middle part of next week.

[Ed Lizard]

October, worst month of the year? Hurricane season over for certain, and allergies start, My eyes are itchy,

Can't even get fired up over virga on the radar. NWS has a 20% chance a few drops make it all the way.

[Srain]

October, worst month of the year? Hurricane season over for certain, and allergies start, My eyes are itchy,

Can't even get fired up over virga on the radar. NWS has a 20% chance a few drops make it all the way.

That virga has dropped a third of an inch of rain so far in NW Harris County. I'll take it...

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Robust short wave that brought widespread rainfall to the area yesterday has pushed well east of the region this morning. Rainfall amounts were grossly under-forecasted for the event with widespread .25 to .75 of an inch in many locations. As the low level saturated, yesterday afternoon the rainfall became increasingly more heavy and steady.

With the strong short wave of yesterday evening now east of the area and weak downglide in place, expect a fairly dry day with only a few isolated showers possible in the developing strong warm air advection regime. Low 70 degree dewpoints have moved northward into the Palacios and Port Lavaca areas this morning and developing low pressure over the Midwest will draw this deeper moisture northward today. Deepening low pressure will greatly increase the pressure gradient and expect a rapid increase in wind speeds this morning into the 15-25mph range by early afternoon. SW flow in the low to mid levels will result in a very warm afternoon with many locations pushing 90 degrees.

Strong cold front currently over NW OK will move rapidly southward and push off the TX coast early Thursday. While low level moisture increases today, the mid and upper level moisture plume from now TS Paul has been pushed south of the area into SW TX. Moisture will be greatest along and east of I-45 and convergence along the front will be strong. Short term models are showing a thin line of possibly strong thunderstorms developing from the ARLATX region this afternoon SW into eastern TX this evening and overnight. This line looks to affect our eastern counties along and east of I-45 where the greatest moisture and instability will be as is usually the case under SSW low level flow. The short term models did a good job on the event yesterday with coverage of position of the rainfall, so think there is a decent chance of late evening thunderstorms across Walker, Polk, Trinity, San Jacinto, Liberty, Chambers, eastern Harris, and eastern Galveston Counties. West of these areas, moisture looks to limited for much more than a thin line of showers.

Front sweeps off the coast with gusty NW winds in place on Thursday and highs a solid 10 degrees cooler than today (near 80). Coolest morning looks to be Friday (mid 50’s) before strong onshore flow returns by Saturday brining warmth and humidity back into the region from the Gulf. Longer range has really backed away from any hints at cold air intrusions into the southern plains with continued warm conditions into the first week of November.

[Ed Lizard]

That virga has dropped a third of an inch of rain so far in NW Harris County. I'll take it...

That was a nice surprise. The EPAC tropics have been our friend recently,

[DoctorMu]

That virga has dropped a third of an inch of rain so far in NW Harris County. I'll take it...

We had an all day slow soaker in CLL...love when the EPAC moisture streams up NW. Of course our St. Augustine has brown patch as a change of pace from summer brown - really hope the Tifway 419 which has taken over the lawn on one side of the driveway hops over and occupies the remainder.

[Srain]

The Pacific front has moved through offering a couple of days of cooler/dryer weather before a return flow off the Gulf becomes re established. The next in a series of potent fall storms will enter the picture next week bring a rather widespread severe outbreak potential to the Southern/Central Plains along with yet another cold front sweeping S into the Lone Star State.

Also the tropics are looking to become active as a monsoonal trough begins to lift N and one if not two tropical disturbances develop in the Caribbean. While the Western Gulf is safe from any tropical mischief, there are indications that the SE Gulf and Florida/Bahamas may have an issue as a favorable MJO pulse and Kelvin Wave provide for an up tick in activity. Late October tends to favor that area as well as along the SE US Coast for tropical troubles.

Looking longer range, there are still indications that a much more potent Blue Norther type front is on the horizon near the end of October/early November as some mighty chilly air builds in our source regions and snowfall increases across Siberia and Western Canada and a very strong Arctic high pressure develops and begins to drop S into Canada bringing the coldest air of the season into the lower 48 as well as wintry weather well S into the Plains. We will see.

[Ed Lizard]

WHO REMEMBERS THE BIG RAIN EVENT OCT 16-18 1994? 10 TO 30 INCHES

OF RAIN FELL DURING MID OCTOBER 1994 FLOODING I-10 AT THE SAN

JACINTO RIVER EAST OF HOUSTON AND CLOSING US HWY 59 NEAR HUMBLE.

LIBERTY TEXAS RECORDED 26.37 INCHES OF RAIN...CONROE RECORDED

23.89 INCHES OF RAIN AND HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT RECORDED 18.03

INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. 43

NWS HGX reminding us of the thrilling days of yesteryear.

[somethingfunny]

NWS HGX reminding us of the thrilling days of yesteryear.

It's the reason why I watch the EPAC so closely in October.

[Srain]

It's the reason why I watch the EPAC so closely in October.

The GFS continues to advertise a well developed EPAC storm making landfall near the Baja later in the month about the time a strong cold front enter the Region. Usually that is our October flood potential combination as a deep trough develops to the W and sweeps up an EPAC Hurricane to the NE across Mexico and on into Texas.

[somethingfunny]

The GFS continues to advertise a well developed EPAC storm making landfall near the Baja later in the month about the time a strong cold front enter the Region. Usually that is our October flood potential combination as a deep trough develops to the W and sweeps up an EPAC Hurricane to the NE across Mexico and on into Texas.

Ironically, it would be another storm named Rosa.

[DoctorMu]

Impressive fantasy. We had 20 in of rain in 18 hours back in October of 1994. I kicked down the fence to let 3 foot deep water out of the backyard. Closest thing to being in an Ark I've ever seen

[Ed Lizard]

Boring but pleasant the next week, looks like. GFS and Euro not in agreement on EPAC tropics beyond that, and even GFS with activity seems to keep most of the moisture pulled off an EastPac storm South of SETX.

May see an East coast miracle, yesterday's 12Z Euro was awesome, 0Z Euro not so awesome, The Canadian, which WILL be correct some day, Hurricane Sandy as Hazel Deux. Exciting weather elsewhere helps me handle dull weather at home. I like the mild temperatures, although I'm starting to get my Autumn allergies, and I have a sad feeling it'll take our first frost, probably in December, to end allergy season.

That is so bittersweet, the first frost, all the lovely banana plants go from lush and verdant to brown and dead in less than a day after the first frost.

[Srain]

It appears the Euro has flipped back and is in agreement with the GFS although about 6-8 hours slower with the cold front. This does appear to be the coldest air of the season so far and unless something changes over the next several days, a cold and dreary Saturday may be ahead for next weekend. We will see.

[Srain]

The overnight guidance has come into much better agreement regarding the strong Arctic front expected to sweep S out of Canada during the coming week bringing an end to the warm weather as well as delivering a long awaited pattern change that has dominated the Lower 48 over the past couple of weeks. The zonal flow of late will switch to that of a very deep trough that will usher in some very chilly air that has been building in Siberia and Canada and bring that air S into the Plains and Texas.

There are indications that the coldest air of the season will dive well S into Mexico and even as far S as Cuba with this Fall cold spell. Locally, the trend has been to lower the temps daily with each cycle of guidance and there may well be a chance of near freezing temps in the Hill Country with this front. Over running conditions appear likely after the front passes as the sub tropic jet from the EPAC enters the picture. Upglide moisture over the top of the shallow cold air mass appears to be likely and will come as a bit of a shock after high in the lower 90's this week before the front arrives Friday into Saturday and sweeps S into the Gulf. Later in the week we'll fine tune the actual temps expected, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some 30's in the northern areas of SE Texas with strong blustery N to NW winds and a chilly rain next Saturday and possibly extending into Sunday. Stay Tuned! This may well be that long awaited Blue Norther that some have been hoping for.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Summer continues on this week under high pressure aloft and surface high pressure just to our east allowing a persistent onshore flow and a warm muggy air mass to continue in place. Fairly zonal flow aloft over the US will keep the above mentioned features in place through much of the week with the humid warmth continuing. SE TX lies along the eastern edge of a plume of deeper moisture moving northward from the western Gulf of Mexico which stretches NE into the Midwest ahead of short wave moving out of the southern Rockies. Thunderstorms will erupt across the plains today in this unseasonably warm pattern. Onshore flow pattern will keep

Upper air pattern is poised to undergo amplification by the middle to end of the week, while at the same time, a cold air mass builds and intensifies over NW Canada. By the middle to end of the week, the zonal (west to east) flow across the nation will be replaced by a more NW flow out of Canada as high pressure builds over the western US. This pattern will help dislodge some of the building cold air and send it southward down the plains by this weekend. The forecast models have been bouncing around with the idea of a strong cold front for days now, but have had significant timing and intensity differences between runs and models. Over the weekend the models have come into fairly decent agreement on the upper air pattern and the projected arrival of a cold front into the southern plains and TX Friday and Saturday. The main difference now is how cold does it get behind the front with the CMC showing a much colder air mass and the ECMWF and GFS showing a cool air mass, but nothing to the extreme of the CMC.

Given the amount of cold air build up over NW Canada this week along with a marginally favorable delivery pattern that supports a shallow cold front into TX, will go with a shallow cold air mass reaching TX on Friday and clearing the coast early Saturday morning. Strong cold air advection ensues post front with gusty NW winds and temperatures falling into the 50’s and 60’s. Post frontal shallow air mass looks to be overrun by WSW to SW flow above 900mb resulting in a thick cloud deck and periods of light rain on Saturday. Only slow clearing, if any, on Sunday as overrunning clouds hold. Would not be surprised is some locations remain in the 50’s all day Saturday, but this is about 10 degrees below current guidance numbers at this time. We have all week to tweak the temperatures for the weekend….as models get a better handle on how much cold air is going to dump southward, but the current very warm and humid conditions will be ended by this weekend!

99L:

A board area of low pressure has formed over the SW Caribbean Sea roughly 300 miles south of the island of Jamaica. Satellite images this morning show a well defined circulation in the cloud pattern with deep convective bands near and surrounding the center. It is highly likely that advisories will be initiated later this morning on a tropical depression.

The upper air pattern will result in a slow W to WSW motion for the next 48 hours followed by a turn toward the NNE to NE ahead of the deepening trough developing over the plains. There is fairly good guidance agreement on the system tracking over Jamaica and then across eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas by the end of the week. This should keep the system east of FL, however many models are showing a large circulation and the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the mid Atlantic and the deepening tropical system will bring strong ENE winds, large waves, and possible squalls to the E FL coast.

Conditions are favorable for development, but the large sprawling nature of the circulation usually indicates a slow developing tropical system. Most model guidance keeps the system as a moderate to strong tropical storm with a few models bringing it to hurricane intensity. Think the best chance for development will be in the short term as the system lingers south of Jamaica over very warm waters and favorable upper air conditions. Tropical systems in this area in October can develop very quickly once an inner core is established. As the system begins to lift NE, increasing wind shear will begin to weaken the circulation due to approaching trough over the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Big changes on the way!

Cold air mass over Alaska and NW Canada with temperatures below 0 this morning will be on the move over the next 24-48 hours as the zonal pattern over the US buckles and amplifies allowing some of this cold air to dump southward down the plains. Until then the warm and humid conditions…Indian summer…will continue with lows in the upper 60’s and highs near 90 under breezy south winds. Temperatures are running about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Changes begin tomorrow as the strong cold front surges rapidly down the plains into TX as the Gulf of Mexico ridging flattens some as a strong trough develops over the plains. Models continue to speed up the frontal timing and the boundary should reach our NW counties early Friday morning and plow off the coast by mid-afternoon Friday. Moisture pools slightly ahead of the boundary late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning and expect a few scattered showers on Thursday afternoon with heating and then along the front Friday morning. Not looking a much accumulation of rainfall with this system with the main dynamics well to our NE. A few locations may manage a half an inch, but most locations will total less than that.

Bigger story will be the onset of strong cold air advection and rapid temperature fall. Expect highs to be pre front on Friday with temperatures falling during the afternoon hours for all locations. Upstream air mass over N TX will have little modification potential as clouds and periods of light rain hold temperatures in that area in the 50’s on Friday. Expect temperatures to fall from the 80’s to the 60’s with the frontal passage and then into the upper 50’s north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston line during the afternoon hours. Clouds and light rain will be possible into Friday night as moisture upglides over the cold dome at the surface. NW winds will howl behind the front in the 15-25mph range making it feel colder than the actual air temperatures.

Forecast over the weekend is tricky as the temperatures depend greatly on the amount of cloud cover. Latest GFS shows less cloud cover on Saturday allowing more sun and warmer afternoon highs (near 70) compared to the previous forecast of a thick overcast and highs in the lower 60’s. Will split the difference and go with highs in the mid 60’s with cloudy skies in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. If clouds linger longer, then highs on Saturday will be closer to 60. If skies can clear out, the coldest morning will be Sunday with lows into the 40’s for most locations, should clouds linger, lows will be near 50. Same set up for Sunday as for Saturday as the temperature forecast will be heavily based on sky cover…although there is a better chance of seeing more sun on Sunday.

Onshore winds should return early next week, but Gulf moisture return will be slowed by strong frontal penetration and powerful storm system progged over the west Atlantic waters.

TS Sandy:

Strong tropical storm heading for the island of Jamaica this morning. Sandy has become well organized on satellite images with deep convective banding developing over the center in the past few hours. The last recon aircraft recorded winds just below hurricane intensity and it is likely that Sandy will become a hurricane shortly. There has been little change to the overall track reasoning in the past 24 hours with Sandy moving N to NNE at an increasing rate of speed influenced by a trough to the west. This will take Sandy across Jamaica and eastern Cuba and then the central Bahamas in the next 48 hours. Sandy has about 12-18 hours of favorable upper air conditions and warm water before the system begins to interact with the mountains of eastern Cuba and increasing SW wind shear. Expect the system to peak in the next 12 hours as a hurricane and then begin a slow weakening.

After 48 hours Sandy will become increasingly entangled in the baroclinic processes off the SE US coast and all forecast models show the wind field greatly expanding between high pressure over the NE US and the low pressure associated with Sandy. This expanding wind field requires TS Watches to be issued for the FL SE coast and the FL Keys. Beyond 72 hours most guidance take Sandy as a very large system out to the NE or ENE into the western Atlantic while the ECMWF brings a powerful extra-tropical cyclone (Nor’easter) northward along the US east coast and inland over the NE US. The other guidance generally show Sandy moving out to sea, but also show secondary low pressure forming off the NE US coast with some influences from Sandy. Potential is there for a fairly significant coastal storm system off the NE US coast next week.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Local big story will be the arrival of a strong cold front tonight, but eyes will be trained to the east coast this weekend as powerful Hurricane Sandy takes potential aim at the NE US.

A separate e-mail will be drafted to detail the possible impacts from powerful Hurricane Sandy.

Pattern aloft is transiting to troughing in the east US and building heights in the western US which will help amplify the central/eastern US trough. A strong old front currently extends from southeast KS to NW TX this morning with temperatures in the post frontal air mass in the lower 40’s with strong NW winds of 25-35mph. Locally over the area, slightly deeper moisture has moved westward overnight from the central Gulf of Mexico and this is producing two bands of inland moving streamer showers over the area. The first and more pronounced band extends from just east of Matagorda Bay NNE to Huntsville with a second band approaching the mouth of the Sabine River. With deeper moisture in place compared to previous days, expect a continuation of scattered showers through much of the day and into the evening hours.

Strong cold front will arrive into the area after midnight tonight and highs temperatures will be recorded prior to frontal passage. Convergence along the boundary will likely yield a band of showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but factors for heavy rainfall or severe weather are not in place. Strong cold air advection will onset post front with gusty NW winds and temperatures holding steady in the 60’s or falling into the upper 50’s north of I-10. Skies will be slow to clear behind the boundary and patchy light rain may continue into Friday evening.

Lows Saturday morning under cold air advection will fall into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s even with cloudy skies and gusty winds. Clouds should gradually clear from north to south Saturday and this may allow highs to reach the mid 60’s, but any slower clearing will result in much colder afternoon highs in the 50’s.

Clear skies and light winds Saturday night will setup the coldest night in a long time for the area. Forecasted dewpoints in the 30’s will support widespread low temperatures in the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. Forecasted dewpoints in the College Station area on the GFS model are from 30-34 degrees, and if conditions are perfect, some sheltered northern locations could fall to the mid 30’s.

Cold start on Sunday morning will result in a cool day even with mostly sunny skies. Highs will only reach the upper 60’s under light NE winds.

Extended:

As potential major eastern US storm system (Hurricane Sandy) moves toward the NE US early next week, surface high pressure will begin to shift eastward allowing weak onshore flow to return. Gulf of Mexico will be worked over by the upcoming front, and tropical moisture return will be slow. Expect only a slow modification in temperature and humidity values into next week.

[msp]

awesome couple days of weather. loving the 40s at night, 60s during the day. making doing outdoors stuff bearable. back to the 80s within a day or two?

[Ed Lizard]

Mild and boring is better than cold and boring like the beginning of the week.

[Srain]

Dense Fog across the region this morning with visibility near 1/4 mile is some locations. The Pacific front is still on schedule for late Sunday evening into Monday bringing a chance of showers/isolated storms as it nears the area. Seasonal temps will return after a warm week of temps near 90 with lows in the upper 50's and highs in the 70's behind the front. Attention turns to mid November as a deep Western trough develops and much colder air is poised to spill S from Canada. There are still indications that a robust storm complex will develop to our W at the base of the trough and eject NE into the Plains that may bring a squall line into Texas with some severe weather potential near the 12th, +/- a day or two as a much stronger front enters the region.

[DoctorMu]

Mild and boring is better than cold and boring like the beginning of the week.

For me - any day without the A/C or any risk of watering is a good day.

[Srain]

Stormy afternoon across Central/SE TX...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

151 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032130-

HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-

WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-

HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-

GALVESTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...

MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...

CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...

COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...

CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...

EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...

PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...

HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...

PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...

EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...

ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...

GALVESTON

151 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WARM BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE AND NUMEROUS INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES

WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FUNNEL

CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITH RADAR.

THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY STRETCH TO THE GROUND AND BECOME

WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF YOU

OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD. THE THREAT FOR THE FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD

END AROUND SUNSET.

[Srain]

HGX issues Flood Advsory for Matagorda & Wharton Counties