Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Srain]

Another update from Jeff:

There have been a couple of questions this morning on lake levels and how the rains have affected lake levels.

Lake Conroe: 198.42 (-2.58)

Lake Houston: 42.40 (+.40 over spillway)

Lake Buchanan: 994.73 (-23.27)

Lake Somerville: 239.91 (1.9 ft above conservation pool). This is a flood control lake and water is currently being held.

Sam Rayburn: 161.63 (-2.77)

Toledo Bend: 170.35 (-1.65), based on rainfall in E TX/W LA this lake will rise above its conservation pool.

Lake Livingston: 131.20 (+.20). Based on upstream rainfall over N TX flood gate operations are in progress at the lake releasing 19,000 cfs

Lake Travis: 633.57 (-47.43)

Lake Texana: 43.04 (-1.84)

Lake Limestone: 363.50 (+.50) Flood Gate operations are in progress with 5 gates opened 5.5 feet releasing 26,500 cfs into the Navasota River

Statewide storage is now at 73.94% up from a low of near 59% at the end of last summer.

[bubba hotep]

A few cells going up in northern Collin county, maybe we will get a little more out of this system:

[Ed Lizard]

Unless it snows or there is enough ice to cancel school, Winter is just a depressing time of year.

Botticelli's "Primavera"

I eagerly await our first day above 30º Canadian.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

306 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM

SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL

TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT

WINDS AND WET GROUND WILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW

AND HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 570

DM ON SAT/SUN SO FEEL EACH DAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN ITS

PREDECESSOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE MID

AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

:D :D :D

[Quixotic1]

This is the most persistent low I've seen in quite some time. The last thing I can remember that comes close is Dean.

[Srain]

Continued improvement with our ongoing multi year drought and prospects for rains as we move further into the Spring are very encouraging...

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at the likely warm ENSO by prime time hurricane season.

1) Vacation homes owned by retirees on Texas barrier islands look fairly safe this year.

2) For the tropical junkies, just checking, there can be the rare TC, often of non-tropical origin, that affect SETX. Alicia being the most famous. But they are rare.

3) Best of all, stats guy on KHOU-TV 11 local weather forum noted that warm ENSOs following cold ENSOs are often exciting Winters for Texas. I hate the cold, but am more than willing to accept it for snow...

[DoctorMu]

Looking at the likely warm ENSO by prime time hurricane season.

1) Vacation homes owned by retirees on Texas barrier islands look fairly safe this year.

2) For the tropical junkies, just checking, there can be the rare TC, often of non-tropical origin, that affect SETX. Alicia being the most famous. But they are rare.

3) Best of all, stats guy on KHOU-TV 11 local weather forum noted that warm ENSOs following cold ENSOs are often exciting Winters for Texas. I hate the cold, but am more than willing to accept it for snow...

Kewl. I kind of like the cool stuff and anything white, particularly sandwiched between brutal summers. After last lear's never ending 105-106° days (with humidity but no rain), if I never saw another day above 90° again, I'd be fine.

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Very nice Spring weather of late will transition to increasing clouds and rain chances by the end of the week.

Favorable low level flow off the Gulf is slowly increasing moisture across the area with skies partly cloudy with a scattered low level deck of cumulus and high level deck of cirrus over the region. Disturbances in the WSW flow aloft have been helping to fire off late afternoon/evening thunderstorms over the high terrain of NE Mexico which have moved across the border into TX. This activity has dissipated long before reaching SE TX.

Models are coming into decent agreement on pegging the Friday-Saturday period for the next round of local convection as a decent short wave moves across the state in the flow aloft. Moisture will deepen through the period peaking Friday afternoon in the 1.3-1.5 inch range along with a weakening of the capping aloft. Upper level winds become increasingly divergent Friday afternoon, but the area is lacking any sort of surface trigger. Feel that enough parameters are in place for showers/thunderstorms to develop without a surface trigger, but these storms may remain more scattered than the widespread nature of the past several systems. Not really looking at any severe of excessive rainfall threat either although a few storms could be locally strong with brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.

System will pass east of the area by midday on Saturday with partly cloudy skies returning and no change in the low level air mass. GFS shows a powerful cold front crossing the area early next week knocking temperatures down to below normal for early April…for now will go with a much more subdued forecast and weaker frontal passage. Not sure there will be ample moisture behind the Saturday system to spark additional rainfall early next week…plenty of time to watch and fine tune.

Hydro:

Still dealing with high flows on the Navasota, Brazos, and Trinity Rivers. Recessions are in progress on the Navasota and Brazos, but rises are forecasted on the lower Trinity as upstream run-off finally reaches the lower part of the river. Rises to flood stage are possible by this weekend at both Liberty and Moss Bluff. Rainfall in the Friday-Saturday time period does not appear to be great enough to result in additional run-off concerns or rises on the mainstem channels.

Note: EWX radar is down due to the first dual polarization upgrade of the 88D (NEXRAD). For more information see the link below

http://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/DualPol/Default.aspx

[Ed Lizard]

Euro shows an inch of rain Friday, but checking my handy forecast skew-Ts from the Euro on AccuWx PPV, instability and shear, just not there for even strong fun-derstorms.

South Texas showers are weakening, but as an eternal optimist, hoping for redevelopment with afternoon heating.

HRRR model CAPE unimpressive around HOU, but not too shabby towards I-35

Edit to remove bad hotlinks.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Friday.

A bit of a surprise yesterday as models failed to correctly solve the upper disturbance which evolved into a weak upper level low over the state. Afternoon convection was extremely efficient is producing some really big rainfall totals over portions of our northwest counties and southwest of the area where some locations picked up between 8-10 inches of rainfall. Slow storm motions in a highly moist air mass were the main culprits for flooding rainfall in some very localized areas.

Disturbance yesterday is now over extreme east TX while another weak disturbance has moved out of MX overnight and has resulted in a small area of organized storms over S TX early this morning (approaching Corpus Christi). Short term models are not all that aggressive with rain chances today, but they were not overly excited yesterday. Given radar trends down the coast from north of Corpus to near Victoria where a few showers are starting to develop…likely on the leading edge of lift from the disturbance combined with favorable low level flow off the Gulf suggest that an active day may be on tap. Air mass will destabilize with heating this morning and expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop from late morning through early afternoon. No area is really favored over another, although the southern areas may see the brunt of the activity today with the track of the S TX disturbance and inland movement of the afternoon seabreeze. Texas Tech WRF was showing some development along some sort of a northward moving boundary later today, but it is widely scattered.

Convection will fire up again this evening over the mountains of Mexico and push eastward into SW and S TX again tonight…similar to the last several nights. A stronger disturbance moving out of Mexico tonight may help bring more organized storms across S TX and possibly further eastward than the past few nights. A general lack of good upper air data from MX is really causing some issues with the model guidance with these weak systems and their downstream impacts over TX. Meso scale events are the main driving forces under a weak upper level flow regime which are difficult to forecast.

Rainfall:

Very slow storm motions yesterday in a highly moist air mass produced some prodigious rainfall amounts in a very short period of time (4.5 inches in 2.5 hours under some cells). Air mass is similarly moist today and storm motions remain under 10mph. Feel that the threat for short term excessive rainfall remains, but with a lack of any surface focus there is no good boundary to anchor the storms on…not saying these storms that develop could not produce some sort of outflow boundary this afternoon that becomes an anchoring mechanism. For now will go with scattered amounts of .5 to 1 inch much like yesterday with a few locations getting much more (again this will be isolated, but where it happens some significant flooding may result).

Extended:

Upper flow becomes a little less noisy over the weekend ahead of a decent frontal passage aimed at the area for Monday. While winds turn SW ahead of the boundary (possibly advecting capping NE from MX), there still appears to be enough moisture and good lift with the boundary Monday afternoon to produce a band of thunderstorms.

[Ed Lizard]

Day 5 SPC Outlook gives reason for glass half full optimism, and while, obviously, details will change, the current GFS, a little light on wind energy and a low level instability, but then again, decently low LCL, and some fat mid level CAPE. Haven't seen severe hail in 5 or 7 years. Haven't seen winds I'd estimate over 50 knots locally since late Summer 2008. GFS has rain on the doorstep w./ the below sounding...

Almost time for a new roof, and if insurance could do it (less deductible), it would save money, and at work the 2007 Impala (its even older than that) is below the top floor in the garage, while my office window looks over cars on the top floor, and even if at home (my wife's 2010 Sienna parks in the two car garage that has too much junk to hold 2 cars), while I probably should have cheapened my insurance once I paid off the car last year, I haven't yet, I'd fix any glass, but let golf ball dimples improve my fuel economy and pocket the difference.

Glass half full.

[Srain]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/29/12 1700Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-817-4209

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1702Z JBN

.

LOCATION...TEXAS...

.

EVENT...SLOWMOVING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UL

DISTURBANCE SITUATED OVER SE TX THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NEWD ATTM. BLENDED

TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TC COAST WITH PWATS

AVERAGING NEAR 1.5". IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION

THAT HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST FEW HRS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN KRKP AND

KEFD. CLOUD TOPS ARE SHOWING A NICE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR IMAGERY

WITH A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS OCCURRING AS WELL IN VIS IMAGERY. GIVEN

THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND CELL MERGERS THAT MAY BE OCCURRING, RAIN

RATES MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIOJN. SINCE

THE ENTIRE CLUSTER IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE WITH THE MID/UL

DISTURBANCE, COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HVY RAIN THAT COULD RESULT

IN SOME FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE ESTIMATE

PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 1-1.5" OF RAIN THE PAST 3 HRS ACROSS PARTS

OF MATAGORDA/JACKSON.WHARTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMTS OF 1-3"

WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 2-3 HRS AS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVES NEWD.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1715Z-2015Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.....CONVECTION

CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN IR IMAGERY AS EVIDENT BY CELL MERGERS AND

COOLING/EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS. AMPLY MOISTURE AND SOME UL SUPPORT FROM

MID/UL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN

CONVECTION AND PRODUCE MOD/HVY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS MAY RESULT

IN SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THE NEXT FEW HRS.

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning issued for Harris and Montgomery Counties until 600pm

What an afternoon as meso vortex over Brazoria County has spawned a strong bow echo moving through the coastal waters and slow moving excessive rainfall over Harris and Brazoria Counties. 1 hour rainfall rate of 2.40 inches has been recorded near BUSH IAH. Flash Flooding is likely from loop 610-Humble between I-45 and US 59.

Extensive development should progress eastward slowly this afternoon, but upstream satellite and radar is already starting to fore off in the high terrain of NE MX/TX Big Bend region where past several nights storm complexes have developed. Additionally there appears to be some sort of low level boundary left over along the middle TX coast from the southern flank of the bow echo offshore to south of Seadrift and then inland near Rockport where towering cumulus and echoes are attempting to develop. An impressive cell south of Calhoun County over the Gulf has been anchored on this boundary for several hours now and recently the radar is showing development back closer to the coast from Port Alto to Palacios.

Not overly confident in what is going to happen this evening as meso scale influence are in pure control as is clear on the radar at this time. Feel the current activity will slowly shift eastward, but more may develop near the coast.

Overnight another vigorous complex of storms should evolve out of NE MX and head E to ESE across SC/S TX and toward our region by Friday morning. Will have to see how this plays out early Friday, but something similar to today may be possible again on Friday.

Models have been very poor on their handling of these weak features much of which have been convectively induced on the short term (6-12 hours) which is very hard for models to resolve.

[icebreaker5221]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning issued for Harris and Montgomery Counties until 600pm

What an afternoon as meso vortex over Brazoria County has spawned a strong bow echo moving through the coastal waters and slow moving excessive rainfall over Harris and Brazoria Counties. 1 hour rainfall rate of 2.40 inches has been recorded near BUSH IAH. Flash Flooding is likely from loop 610-Humble between I-45 and US 59.

Extensive development should progress eastward slowly this afternoon, but upstream satellite and radar is already starting to fore off in the high terrain of NE MX/TX Big Bend region where past several nights storm complexes have developed. Additionally there appears to be some sort of low level boundary left over along the middle TX coast from the southern flank of the bow echo offshore to south of Seadrift and then inland near Rockport where towering cumulus and echoes are attempting to develop. An impressive cell south of Calhoun County over the Gulf has been anchored on this boundary for several hours now and recently the radar is showing development back closer to the coast from Port Alto to Palacios.

Not overly confident in what is going to happen this evening as meso scale influence are in pure control as is clear on the radar at this time. Feel the current activity will slowly shift eastward, but more may develop near the coast.

Overnight another vigorous complex of storms should evolve out of NE MX and head E to ESE across SC/S TX and toward our region by Friday morning. Will have to see how this plays out early Friday, but something similar to today may be possible again on Friday.

Models have been very poor on their handling of these weak features much of which have been convectively induced on the short term (6-12 hours) which is very hard for models to resolve.

That MCS had a pretty impressive satellite / radar signature. Had that occurred beneath some stronger upper-level winds, those echoes certainly would have resulted in widespread wind damage along the coast. As it was, just some flooding.

Where's Ed!!?

[Srain]

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

445 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

...NEW MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORD ESTABLISHED AT COLLEGE STATION...

ANOTHER 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED SO FAR TODAY (AS OF 4

PM) AT EASTERWOOD FIELD IN COLLEGE STATION (CLL). THIS BRINGS THE

MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTAL TO 8.66 INCHES WHICH IS A NEW MARCH RECORD

FOR CLL. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST MARCH OCCURRED IN 1926 WITH 8.03

INCHES.

THE YEARLY RAINFALL TOTAL IS NOW 20.74 INCHES WHICH IS THE SECOND

WETTEST START TO A YEAR IN RECORDED HISTORY...TRAILING ONLY 1991

(20.79 INCHES).

AT COLLEGE STATION...2012 IS ALREADY WETTER THAN ALL OF 2011. LAST

YEAR...CLL ONLY RECEIVED 19.01 INCHES OF RAIN.

[Srain]

Sweet...

[wxmx]

Interesting day today

[Ed Lizard]

TWC had a sweet looking TorWarned cell near Mission/McAllen in Hidalgo County wandering down towards the border about 8 pm last night Baseball hail and 74 knot ASOS wind gust, no apparent tornado. Dr. Forbes did that cross-section radar thing I love so well.

While Euro and GFS differ for Monday/Tuesday in Upper Low placement, they have fairly weak wind fields on forecast skew-Ts in common. Near 2KJ/kg CAPE, but when winds are under 30 knots 0-6 km, well, just have to hope things change a little. Euro is wetter than GFS, but if anything, looks even sadder for strong fun-derstorms.

About tornadoes seen from the Laredo-Monterrey Highway- we need radar between BRO and DRT on the river. Not only to cover for, say, upgrade to dula-pol for EWX radar or in case CRP or DFX fails, but because of all the Mexican big t-storms we miss.

[Ed Lizard]

New NAM is boring locally, suggests a pulse severe Northwest of Austin, 2800 J/Kg CAPE around, near 60 TT at Burnett, but no winds over 30 knots anywhere in the sounding. 10ºC spread T/Td, maybe some evaporative cooling/wind gusts.

Hate to see CAPE and lapse rates wasted with an easily breakable cap.

[Quixotic1]

From SPC:

...SRN PLAINS...

ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND LOCATION APPEARS NEBULOUS WITH

ILL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS

EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. WITH

VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG SHOULD

BECOME COMMON BETWEEN A QUASI-STATIONARY WIND SHIFT INVOF THE KS/OK

BORDER AND THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO CNTRL TX. NAM AND ASSOCIATED

CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GFS SUGGEST

ISOLATED TSTMS MAY FORM AROUND PEAK HEATING AS CIN IS MINIMIZED.

ALTHOUGH FLOW THROUGHOUT THE KINEMATIC PROFILE MAY REMAIN

MODEST...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT

EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

SHOULD STORMS FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND

WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD LOW-COVERAGE SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE

SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY.

[bubba hotep]

FWD doing work!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.UPDATE...

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH

TX THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO INCLUDE A

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER

OF NORTH TX AFTER SUNSET.

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE

TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TROUGHS

WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE SUBTLE FEATURES OVER THE TX

PANHANDLE AND JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. 12Z FWD SOUNDING INDICATED

DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH THE SFC TO H825 LAYER

NEAR SATURATION. THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION PRESENT JUST BELOW THE

H750 LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE FAIRLY STEEP WITH AN

OBSERVED 700 TO 500 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 21 DEG C. 15Z

AIRCRAFT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM KDFW INDICATE THAT WEAK

SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP AND SLIGHTLY

STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW

POINTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH A

BROKEN DECK OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE

FORECAST AREA. THE REGIONAL WIND FIELD INDICATED STRONGLY VEERED

FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST

AREA...JUST WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WERE MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY

DIRECTION WHICH MEANS THAT THE VEERED FLOW JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF

BRECKENRIDGE REPRESENTS SOME SORT OF DEVELOPING BOUNDARY.

REGARDING CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST...DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY

DISCERNABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THE WIND

SHIFT LINE WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE

LIKELY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL SET UP BY

THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE DRYLINE SETS UP CLOSE TO THE WESTERN

COUNTIES OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A VERY FAVORABLE PLACE FOR

CONVECTION TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THINGS HAVE TO

HAPPEN FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE...MOST IMPORTANTLY THE WEAK

FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE THAT IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THE H800 TO

H750 CAP HAS TO CEASE. IF THIS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON

STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP. THE SECOND IMPORTANT FACTOR IS

THAT CLOUDS MUST BREAK UP A BIT IN ORDER TO GET SUFFICIENT LOW

LEVEL HEATING FOR GOOD DESTABILIZATION OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

THE IMPORTANT FACTOR THAT SEEMS TO FAVOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION

ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE PRESENCE OF THE UPSTREAM

SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 2 DM HEIGHT

FALLS AT AMARILLO POINTING TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT

PENETRATING FAIRLY DEEP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE FOR AS WEAK AS THE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ASSUMING THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS

EXPECTED TO BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WESTERN

HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HORUS OF THE DAY...OR

AFTER 21Z/4PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CESSATION OF

THE WEAK SUBSIDENT FORCING AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CAP

TO LIFT...COOL AND WEAKEN OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY 00Z/7 PM.

ADDITIONALLY...STRATUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BREAK UP OVER THE

WESTERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW AREAS OUT AHEAD OF

THE DRYLINE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. LASTLY...OUR LOCALLY

RUN 4 KM ARW-WRF MODEL DOES INITIATE ORGANIZED ISOLATED

CONVECTION NEAR A GRAHAM TO CISCO LINE BY 00Z.

ASSUMING STORMS INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE

IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL BECOME SEVERE. 12Z NAM

FORECASTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) IN EXCESS OF 4000

J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. IF THIS IS ACCURATE ANY INITIATED

CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND

SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WOULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE

WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWN

BURST WINDS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY A FORECAST OF

OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE HAIL PRODUCTION (-10 TO -30 DEG C)

LAYER. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST

THETA-E DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE MID-LEVELS

OF AT LEAST 30 K. DOWNDRAFT SPEED AND INTENSITY WILL BE ENHANCED

IN THIS ENVIRONMENT PRIMARILY DUE TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF DRY AIR

ALOFT AND VERY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL

SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH END TORNADO

THREAT...HOWEVER THE EXTREME VALUES OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY

WARRANT A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A MULTI-

CELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER MUCH LIKE THE LOW END TORNADO

THREAT...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WOULD ALLOW FOR POWERFUL UPDRAFT

SPEEDS AND ANY AMBIENT HORIZONTAL OR VERTICAL VORTICITY TO BE

QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY INGESTED TO SUSTAIN A ROTATING UPDRAFT. AS

A RESULT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY

INITIALLY...NEAR THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT ANY

CONVECTION THAT INITIATES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE

INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTER OR AS A DOWNWIND PROPAGATING MCS

AFTER SUNSET. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXPANDED LOW

(20) POPS FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS

FAR AS THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE CONCERNED...THINK THAT THE PRESENCE

OF THE CAP WILL PREVENT TSTM INITIATION AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE OVER

THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TX...SO THESE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE

TO RELY UPON UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO SEE TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER

SUNSET.

CAVANAUGH

[Quixotic1]

Juicy. Sun's out too.

[Ed Lizard]

SPC meso page suggests CINH almost gone, MLCAPE pushing 3500 J/Kg (SBCAPE over 4000) and now perhaps the first sign of cumulus going up near the dry line...

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0459 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302159Z - 302300Z

A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP

WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX. TSTM COVERAGE

REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING

MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

TOWERING CU FIELD HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN RECENT VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGES E OF JCT...FORMING ALONG/NEAR A WEAKLY

CONFLUENT/DIFFUSE DRYLINE. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS LIKELY

RESULTED IN EROSION OF MOST CINH...AND AS WEAK FORCED ASCENT

ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE /NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NW

TX/ OVERSPREADS THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BECOME

MORE PROBABLE PRIOR TO SUNSET. WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW /E.G.

15-20 KTS AT 6 KM AGL PER LDB PROFILER/...STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY

PROGRESS E-SEWD INTO A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH

MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000

J/KG. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE HAIL /SOME VERY

LARGE/...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN A HOT/WELL-MIXED

BOUNDARY LAYER. ONE FACTOR PRECLUDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD

THREAT WILL BE WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LIMITING STORM

ORGANIZATION...FAVORING PULSE TO MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODES.

THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WILL

LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A WW WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT TRENDS WILL

CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..ROGERS.. 03/30/2012

[Srain]

The SPC is mentioning an area of convection developing in S and S Central TX later and some of the HIRES short range meso guidance is keying in on storms developing in Old Mexico and pushing E during the late afternoon/evening hours and perhaps skirting our southern areas overnight into tomorrow. The mid/upper level disturbance that was to our N yesterday has settled along the Middle Texas Coastal Region near Victoria and a short wave disturbance in Old Mexico moving crossing the Sierra Madre Oriental Range this morning that may provide a trigger for showers/storms to develop and a possible meso vortex system (MCS) that some of the guidance bring into our region for Monday.

The better chance of storms still appears to be late in the day on Tuesday, but there remains some disagreement on exactly who will see the best chance of severe weather. My hunch still remains that areas along and E of the I-35 Corridor will be the 'best areas' for seeing slow moving storms with damaging winds and hail being the primary threat. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out and the setup does have some similarities to what we saw back on March 21-22. Capping will likely be an issue tomorrow with a SW flows aloft, but that should weaken during the day on Tuesday across the region with the slow approach of a potent upper low/trough and dry line. We will see...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0758 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MON. SRN PART

OF WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE

FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER ERN

PORTIONS OF THE PLNS AND OVER THE MS VLY. E OF THE

RIDGE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL ONT SHOULD AMPLIFY

SEWD...REACHING UPSTATE NY THIS EVE AND THE NJ CSTL WATERS BY 12Z

MON. IN TX...SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK UPR SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CLOSE

OFF OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THIS FEATURE MARKS THE WRN END OF

POSITIVE TILT TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SERN STATES ON SATURDAY...AND

SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER SE TX THROUGH EARLY MON.

AT LWR LVLS...ONT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS

OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. THE AMPLIFYING SYSTEM ALSO WILL

STRENGTHEN/ACCELERATE EXISTING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO NRN OH/WRN PA BY

THIS EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE/REDEVELOP ENE

ACROSS THE OH VLY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SUBSTANTIALLY

STRENGTHENED FRONTAL ZONE THAT BY LATE TNGT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE

UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TO THE MD-DE CST. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL

SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...OH VLY LATER TODAY/TNGT...

ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERHAPS THE EARLY

AFTN FROM ERN IL INTO IND...NRN KY...AND SRN MI/NRN OH...IN ZONE OF

ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS

TO IF...WHERE...AND WHEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SFC-BASED IN

RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENT VWP AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT

THROUGH DOWNWARD MIXING AND/OR SFC ADVECTION OF LOW 60S F SFC

DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE REALIZED NEWD INTO CNTRL IND AND PERHAPS THE SW

CORNER OF OH BY MID/LATE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE

SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AS 30-40 KT 700

MB FLOW EXPANDS PLAINS EML ESE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...AT LEAST

SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME

SFC-BASED...OR /MORE LIKELY/ FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW

BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING ACTIVITY.

WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VLY TODAY AS ONT SHORT

WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. CURRENT PROFILES /WITH MODERATE SPEEDS

AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE VERTICAL/ ALREADY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF

SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

SUCH ACTIVITY INTO TNGT. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST REGARDING

STORM MODE AND THE LOCATION/S/ LIKELY TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR

DISCRETE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS SUPPORTIVE

OF SCTD STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE

TORNADOES. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST LATE

THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT FROM SRN IND E/SE INTO ERN KY...WRN WV

AND SW OH.

TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE AND STRENGTHENING FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE

STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SWD-MOVING MCS...WITH ATTENDANT EMBEDDED

BOWING STRUCTURES POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG

WIND/SVR HAIL INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON.

...UPR MS VLY...

850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TNGT/EARLY MON OVER THE

UPR MS VLY AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE

CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF WRN STATES UPR TROUGH. THE STRONGEST

THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WHERE

SCTD STORMS MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NRN MN. WHILE

STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY FOSTER A FEW STORMS WITH SVR

HAIL...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST GIVEN

PROXIMITY OF UPR RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT BOTH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR

ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...AND THE RISK/COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH LARGE

HAIL.

...SRN/ERN TX THIS AFTN/EVE...

A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND

WILL EXIST INVOF UPR LOW NEAR THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. A SIMILAR

RISK WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM ALONG DRY LINE

SEGMENT OVER THE SRN HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE VLY. WEAK DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. BUT VERY LARGE

BUOYANCY COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL

AND HIGH WIND.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/01/2012

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Band of showers and thunderstorms bowing into the region this morning from the southwest as yet another poorly forecasted disturbance moved out of Mexico and across S TX overnight. This feature resulted in the formation of a MCS (mesoscale convective system or thunderstorm complex) which is currently extending from near Columbus to Needville to Freeport and bow ENE at 25-35mph. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 50-55mph are likely with the leading edge of the line. Interestingly the 06Z Texas Tech meso model does not even show this complex while the 00Z 4km WRF shows the system acting pretty close to what is happening this morning. Neither model show any additional development this afternoon behind the system, but once the clouds clear, the air mass will become increasingly unstable and cannot rule out a few storms especially north and east counties late today ahead/east side of NE moving mid level circulation noted near KCLL this morning.

Attention then turns out west again tonight as additional disturbances move out of the western US. May see another MCS form tonight in the higher terrain of NE Mexico or west TX and move across the region…although none of the guidance is overly impressive with convective trends, but they have not been. Feel the combination of increasingly diffluent upper air flow on the eastern side of an upper level trough moving into the plains, a central TX dryline and approaching late day frontal boundary along with a juicy (unstable) air mass should support some sort of thunderstorm development across the region Tuesday-Tuesday night. Meso scale feature continue to drive the local weather pattern and the timing of such small scale feature has been and will continue to be difficult.

Upper trough will move east of the region Wednesday ending rain chances for the rest of the week. Moisture will slowly begin to return to the region by Friday into next weekend as the upper flow becomes increasingly southwesterly with again the threat for upper air disturbances moving out of Mexico producing cluster/complexes of thunderstorms.

[Srain]

The 12Z WRF/NMM is suggesting an impressive blow up of convection overnight W Central TX spreading E tomorrow across Central/SE TX. I suspect we'll see another Slight Risk issued for tomorrow for the region with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat. We still cannot rule out a possible tornado or two and the possibility of super cells developing out ahead of the dry line as the squall line marches E during peak heating. We will see...

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0957 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021457Z - 021600Z

MCS CROSSING THE UPPER TX COAST/SABINE RIVER VALLEY ATTM IS EXPECTED

TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL

POTENTIAL FORECAST TO INCREASE. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE

NEXT HOUR.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A BOWING LINE OF STORMS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN

ONGOING MCS MOVING ENEWD ALONG THE TX COAST ATTM. AIRMASS HEAD OF

THE CONVECTION IS QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS BENEATH

STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES YIELDING OVER 3000 J/KG

MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS SRN LA AND VICINITY. AS DAYTIME HEATING OF

THE CLOUD-FREE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES --

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL FURTHER SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF

THE ONGOING STORMS.

WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE

WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL -- WITH 40

KT REAR INFLOW JET NOTED ON KHGZ /HOUSTON TX/ WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTS

CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE SYSTEM -- WITH DAMAGING GUSTS

INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING.

..GOSS.. 04/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

[metalicwx366]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 126

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1010 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LOUISIANA

EASTERN TEXAS

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL

500 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST

NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE

WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BOWING MCS WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND 40-45

KT REAR-INFLOW JET WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TODAY AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS

A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...PER 12Z LCH

SOUNDING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH

SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...MEAD

[bubba hotep]

Some activity about to move into Navarro County. 15z HRRR doesn't really seem to fond of that activity making into the eastern half of the DFW area. Rowlett and Collin might get picked up, if the watch is expanded north.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1215 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX REGION EWD/SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126...

VALID 021715Z - 021845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126

CONTINUES.

BOWING MCS CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS E TX/SWRN LA. AS

THE BOW SHIFTS BOTH NEWD AND EWD ACROSS WW 126 WITH TIME...ISSUANCE

OF ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL WATCHES IS EXPECTED.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOWING MCS EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING

AS IT MOVES ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA...AS DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST

BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT MODEST...THE ALREADY

WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM -- WITH 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET OBSERVED AT 1 KM

VIA KLCH /LAKE CHARLES LA/ WSR-88D VWP -- SHOULD REMAIN INTACT THIS

AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION AND AN INCREASINGLY

UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...DEGREE OF WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY

JUSTIFY ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. AS STORMS ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE

BOW CONTINUE NWD...A WW N OF THE CURRENT WW IS ANTICIPATED...AND

SIMILAR NEW WATCH REQUIREMENT IS ENVISIONED INTO MS AS STORMS MOVE

ENEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 04/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...FWD...

OUN...

LAT...LON 31769501 32169576 33239650 33839650 34499481 34469256

33699049 32868973 31228916 29408999 29429233 31179287

31749402 31769501