Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Ed Lizard]

NWS flood warning for Spring Creek in Spring compares the expected flood to Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, which pretty much is the gold standard for local flood events.

[DoctorMu]

ULL lurking near Lake Livingston. Fireworks tomorrow starting early from Livingston to near CLL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

916 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...

MINOR SHORT TERM UPDATES BASED MOSTLY ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS. SEE

BELOW FOR RATIONALE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY YET AGAIN THIS

EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS IN THE VERY SHORT

RANGE. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN RAP13...PROFILER

WINDS...VWP WINDS AND SATELLITE LOOPS NEAR LONGVIEW (KGGG). AT

700MB PROFILER AND VWP WINDS SUGGEST TROUGH IS NEAR OR JUST OFF

THE SE TEXAS COAST AND CURVE BACK TO THE LOW. PWAT VALUES DO

APPEAR SLIGHTLY REDUCED FROM PREVIOUS EVENINGS WITH 00Z RAOB

VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY FOR

THE CWA ARE AROUND 1.88 INCH SO STILL PLENTY MOISTURE RICH BUT A

TAD LOWER. SFC MESO BOUNDARIES GALORE THIS EVENING FROM CONVECTIVE

OUTFLOWS AND A LATE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. ONE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH

OF COLLEGE STATION TO CALDWELL ON SOUTHWESTWARD. ANOTHER OVER

COLORADO COUNTY..SEVERAL FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF CWA

AND OLD SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LIBERTY TO KHOU TO KBYY. HRRR AND

TX TECH WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ARE FOR GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT

WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT FEEL WITH MULTITUDE OF

BOUNDARIES AND SLOWLY RETREATING TROUGH/LOW SOME ISOLATED TO

SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE

MAINLY NEAR COAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO LIVINGSTON

NEARER TO 850-700MB LOW. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN OUR CURRENT

FORECAST LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING SO NO CHANGE

NECESSARY. STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ON

SUNDAY SO MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN ZFP/GRIDS REMAINS A

GOOD IDEA. 04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

AVIATION...

SCT LATE AFTN OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN

AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. DO EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT

LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. THOUGH IT COULD BE ANYWHERE...MOST

FAVORABLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UP TOWARD THE

LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND WHERE THE

MORE FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WILL BE. BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL

PROBABLY BE TO USE VCSH/VCTS`S AND AMEND WHEN NECESSARY VERSUS

CLUTTER TAFS WITH TEMPOS ETC. PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE

WITH MID/LATE MORNING HEATING AGAIN SUNDAY. 47

[Ed Lizard]

Today's mid-day rains has far more CG and thunder than previous events that developed in the pre-dawn hours.

[patrick7032]

A nice picture of the outflow induced dust storm approaching San Angelo on Sunday. The photo was taken by one of the staff here at the office. A large area of multicell thunderstorms to our east produced the boundary which moved west at 30 mph and traversed about 200 miles of land trvaveling all the way to west of Midland. It dropping visibilities for about a 20 minute period.

[Srain]

The rainfall continues for SE Texas...

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

342 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

TXC201-339-172245-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0104.120717T2042Z-120717T2245Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-

342 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 333 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HOUSTON TO THE

WOODLANDS WHICH IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF

STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE

ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE

HOUSTON...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH HOUSTON...

ALDINE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...

CHATEAU WOODS AND WOODLOCH.

[Srain]

This is beginning to get a bit old. Day after day it just doesn't seem to want to stop. These are the areas that flooded last week as well...

TXC201-182345-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0106.120718T2144Z-120718T2345Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

HARRIS TX-

444 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHWEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 430 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY. THIS IS

FALLING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF RAIN DURING THE

PAST WEEK AND THE GROUND IS SATURATED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN

MAY RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREAMS AND

STREETS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE

NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY INCLUDING JERSEY VILLAGE AND CYPRESS.

[Ed Lizard]

It was actually cool, almost like clockwork at 6 pm, the various storms I was watching, starting losing their lower cumulus updrafts, by the time I got home, the big cirrus anvils remained, with a few forlorn cu below them.

Definitely less coverage yesterday. No rain at the house. May be watering by Sunday, but it has been a nice week plus break to watering.

[Srain]

Another day...another deluge...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

411 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TXZ213-192200-

HARRIS TX-

411 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY

UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS

TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GALENA PARK. THIS STORM WAS

DEVELOPING AND NEARLY STATIONARY AT THIS TIME.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD SECONDARY

STREETS AND FEEDER ROADS AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HOUSTON...PASADENA...CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH

HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS AND SHELDON.

[DoctorMu]

We'd be more than happy to take these out of your hands in CLL. We've just missed out on a number of real soakers over the past 4 days.

Another day...another deluge...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

411 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TXZ213-192200-

HARRIS TX-

411 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY

UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS

TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GALENA PARK. THIS STORM WAS

DEVELOPING AND NEARLY STATIONARY AT THIS TIME.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD SECONDARY

STREETS AND FEEDER ROADS AS WELL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HOUSTON...PASADENA...CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH

HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS AND SHELDON.

[Ed Lizard]

It looks like a couple of Canadian perturbations of the North American ensembles tryo to spin up a quick Edouard like storm from the thunderstorms entering the Gulf. Don't see any support from just the GFS ensembles, or any reliable modeling, but glass half full optimist, another rainmaker, (and bonus points if it got to the Corn Belt) that also takes a little heat potential away immediately off the Houston coast would be a good thing.

[DoctorMu]

It looks like a couple of Canadian perturbations of the North American ensembles tryo to spin up a quick Edouard like storm from the thunderstorms entering the Gulf. Don't see any support from just the GFS ensembles, or any reliable modeling, but glass half full optimist, another rainmaker, (and bonus points if it got to the Corn Belt) that also takes a little heat potential away immediately off the Houston coast would be a good thing.

The GFS has a little retrograde action Sunday thrown into SE TX

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS and to some extent the WRF/NMM does retrograde the trough further W that is currently offshore of Louisiana. While those models are not remarkably wet, they do suggest that rain chance may need to be increased as we head into tomorrow and Sunday. We are clearly stuck in a pattern that may not change in the foreseeable future, IMO.

[Ed Lizard]

Looks like any attempt at organization will come up short, but if we can get the ballpark 2.3 inch PWs to come overhead, I shall be happy.

[Ed Lizard]

Satellite indicates reaching convective temps now West of DFW, but y'all are still getting full blown insolation. And DFW is at calculated convective temp from 7 am sounding. SPC MCD to your West and for our Eastern areas. DFW CINH may be visible on local 88D, but, maybe, among all the false echo, may be a boundary running to the SE from Dallas.

Houston pushing 3000 J/Kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis, and almost 4000 J/Kg MUCape, but still have CINH.

[Ed Lizard]

First hint of happiness on a boundary North and Northeast of Dallas...

[PottercountyWXobserver]

I see you guys have been receiving pretty good rain up in H-town. I'm in Yorktown, TX at the moment and have been here for a little over a week now, and it has been bone dry here. I'm sure this area could use it.

[DoctorMu]

Yes, indeed...Boundary Incoming!

edit Another cluster biting the dust 5 mi from home.

[#NoPoles]

looks the god-awful heat dome that nearly destroyed TX is back for the summer...just centered further north in KS/NE...i don't have much hope for them until we transition into fall/winter

[Ed Lizard]

For the first time in about 2 weeks, the sprinkler saw action. Thundershower got close enough the lawn was under the anvil, and I could hear thunder, but no a drop.

The 20 to 30% pm seabreeze triggered regime, if it were to rain every third day, would put the sprinkler back on standby.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Highly active weather pattern of late will be ending Wednesday as upper level ridging gradually takes control of the pattern.

Weakness in the ridge that has been lingering over TX and the south for at least 2-3 weeks is starting to fill as high pressure over the central US begins to sink southward. Still have deep moisture in place and fairly low trigger temperatures for today (mid 80’s) so showers and thunderstorms are once again likely along the coast over the next 2-4 hours and then spreading inland by midday.

Upper level high will begin to build over the area on Wednesday and this should reduce rain chances to only 20% along the afternoon seabreeze. High temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s of late will begin to increase with less clouds and rainfall and some locations by the end of the week could be nearing the upper 90’s to near 100. Wet to soggy grounds and increasingly heat will make for high heat index values during the afternoon hours, but indices will remain below advisory levels.

Will need to keep an eye on the Friday/Saturday period as northerly flow develops aloft with high pressure centered west of the area allowing a short wave trough and cool front to move into the NE TX/N LA area. Thunderstorms that develop along this boundary may have at least some chance of reaching the area in the evening hours as the steering flow is generally favorable.

[DoctorMu]

The energy from 2 consecutive sea breeze clusters jumped right over our side of town. The spigot is now OFF for at least the next 10 days.

may...have...to...throw...something.

[DoctorMu]

For the foreseeable future:

[My Weather Today]

Keep this in mind for future reference regarding the GFS. Interestingly, I've noticed the GFS has actually done this twice in 2012 with respect to forecasted rain events here in Texas...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

340 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...IT IS A LITTLE CONCERNING THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE MULTIPLE QPF BOMBS

ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY A FEEDBACK

ISSUE...MANY TIMES THE MODEL IS SIGNALING A PERSISTENT AREA OF

UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THIS CAN BE EITHER ARTIFICIALLY GENERATED

WITHIN THE MODEL...OR IN SOME CASES IT CAN BE SOMEWHAT REALISTIC

GIVEN THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK VERTICAL

WIND FIELDS. EITHER WAY...IF CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER

THIS AREA...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH

MOISTURE CONTENT...

[Ed Lizard]

For the foreseeable future:

But July wasn't bad. Rained each of the last 2 days at the lawn. So if the sprinkler gets dragged out this weekend, well, iis ok. For my size lawn, I'd have to water a lot to justify the time digging little trenches and installing a system. Hose and sprinkler works pretty well.

Nothing really tropical, but a signal from the Euro, and less so from the GFS, of a decent wave coming around August 5th or 6th for somewhat enhanced rain chances. This time of year, Easterly waves are a lawns best friend.

[DoctorMu]

But July wasn't bad. Rained each of the last 2 days at the lawn. So if the sprinkler gets dragged out this weekend, well, iis ok. For my size lawn, I'd have to water a lot to justify the time digging little trenches and installing a system. Hose and sprinkler works pretty well.

Nothing really tropical, but a signal from the Euro, and less so from the GFS, of a decent wave coming around August 5th or 6th for somewhat enhanced rain chances. This time of year, Easterly waves are a lawns best friend.

Nah - most of this stopped at our doorstep. Spider mites are back with the last of significant rainfall. The lawns need a 2% iron/nitrogen burst with our alkaline water (too much sodium). Second watering of the week last night. At least it's better than last summer!! which was smoky by this time...although the heat index might be as high due to the humidity.

A wave or two would be welcome!

[Ed Lizard]

Double posted from Steve's KHOU-TV 11 (KHOU Stands for Houston) local forum August thread.

Euro 500 mb (from RaleighWx) shows a 500 mb trough around in 8 to 9 days from the Gulf and another one reaching Florida Day 10 and heading in our general direction, which might be good for rain. The 240 hour Florida 500 mb trough has a weak surface reflection. If that reflection developed slowly enough, could be the ideal, a 50 knot TS that potentially cancels work, damages nothing important, doesn't flood the beach homes of hard working Mexican born American citizens, and would keep the KHOU-TV 11 forum hopping. If it develops quickly, well, few storms affect South Florida and Texas. Rita sort of did, but provided disappointly little rain for my lawn. 12 hours w/o electricity, but the soon to be National Champion Texas Longhorns had an off weekend, so it wasn't bad.

I guess I'll watch that nerdy looking guy in the video on the Chron site now, but obviously, if the pattern has a weakness in the mean 500 mb heights overhead, if anything developed, it might provide a path for something tropical into our area.

Of course, a slow season with few storms means even if the Gulf is toasty as ever, and the mid and upper level steering would keep the Texas coast unprotected against storms, if there are few storms, odds of landfall are pretty darn low.

Natural born optimism, but I'd bet money, or a case of beer in case of a SETX GTG, that this August, even if the Gulf coast is unaffected, will be more active than August 1997.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS is sniffing the wave currently in the Central Atlantic traversing the Caribbean with 850mb vorticity increasing in time as it moves into the NW Caribbean and finally making it onshore near Tampico. While the Caribbean remains hostile for development with way too much shear, conditions could improve in the NW Caribbean and Gulf in time and we are approaching that time of year where we'll need to monitor development potential in the Western Basin.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Large dome of high pressure located over N TX and OK with extreme heat will remain in place for much of this week.

Upper air analysis shows an expansive ridge of high pressure centered over the TX panhandle into SE CO this morning with SE TX sitting on the SE flank of this feature. Upper level steering flow over our region is out of the ENE so our weather will be driven over the next 3-5 days by any weak disturbances rounding the eastern side of this ridge and crossing near/south of our area. This suggest that any small rain chances will be focused near the coast/offshore through at least Thursday with ridging in place across the rest of the area. One such disturbance moved across the coastal waters yesterday producing a few storms south of I-10 during the afternoon hours. While it will be hot with the ridge near, it will not be the brutal heat that will bake much of the central plains this week. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90’s during the afternoon hours, but a weak landbreeze overnight will allow morning lows to fall into the mid 70’s at most locations. Overall fairly normal weather for late July.

Toward the end of the week, the ridge over the plains will retrograde westward and yet another weakness in the height field aloft develops over LA and E TX (so common this summer). Will need to bring rain chances back into the forecast starting Saturday. Sunday looks to possibly see some fairly decent coverage with deeper moisture advecting into the area and ridging backing to the west. It should be noted that this pattern places the Gulf coast at the mercy of any possible tropical waves/systems in the Atlantic hurricane pipeline with little to no blocking ridging for protection.

Tropics:

99L:

An area of low pressure has developed 800 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is moving westward at 10-15mph with scattered thunderstorms. Global forecast models all suggest some degree of development with this system with the CMC being the most aggressive. Conditions across the middle of the deep tropical Atlantic appear favorable for slow development. While most of the models do show some development, most cap the system near tropical storm intensity. With deep layer high pressure north of 99L over the central Atlantic, the westward motion should continue for the next several days.

[Ed Lizard]

6Z GEFS lean more towards

Florida or Southeast

. Just as well, we don't really want a long tracker window boarder.

Euro 500 heights suggests a bit over a week away from another weakness in the ridge, slightly cooler weather, and enhanced rain chances. GFS and NAEFS heights/winds also suggest we get away form bad part of the ridge, but suggest more East and Northeast 500 mb flow.

Of course, there have been a couple of cool SW propagating storm clusters in Louisiana. BUt warm and generally dry next few days, and late July, early August, pretty typical.

Looks ugly North Texas/Oklahoma as far as Summer heat goes into early August.

Forecast high of 105ºF in Dallas, that is a little warm for my tastes.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the ridge is parking over the Red River. At this point, I'd just take clouds, much less rain...

a weak disturbance might retrograde this way, although we may be too far from the coast for a taste.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

6Z GEFS lean more towards

Florida or Southeast

. Just as well, we don't really want a long tracker window boarder.

Euro 500 heights suggests a bit over a week away from another weakness in the ridge, slightly cooler weather, and enhanced rain chances. GFS and NAEFS heights/winds also suggest we get away form bad part of the ridge, but suggest more East and Northeast 500 mb flow.

Of course, there have been a couple of cool SW propagating storm clusters in Louisiana. BUt warm and generally dry next few days, and late July, early August, pretty typical.

Looks ugly North Texas/Oklahoma as far as Summer heat goes into early August.

Forecast high of 105ºF in Dallas, that is a little warm for my tastes.