Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Srain]

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1047 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

TXC201-081745-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0065.120708T1547Z-120708T1745Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

HARRIS TX-

1047 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1036 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A PERSISTENT AREA OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST HARRIS COUNTY THAT

CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN

GAUGES SHOW RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS

MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STREET AND FEEDER ROAD FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE

PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...

CLOVERLEAF...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...TAYLOR LAKE

VILLAGE...SHOREACRES AND MORGAN`S POINT.

[Ed Lizard]

I wonder if we can get an inland warm core low with nocturnal core rain events out of this...

[Portastorm]

I wonder if we can get an inland warm core low with nocturnal core rain events out of this...

Mid-morning AFD out of NWSFO Fort Worth suggested a weak mid-upper low was developing over your head, Ed. Should be interesting to watch developments.

[Srain]

So far through the 12Z suite of computer guidance less the Euro, all indications point to a very wet pattern ahead for most if not all the upcoming week. The only model that seems to not be handling things very well is the NAM (WRF/NMM) as that model opens up the mid/upper low and shears it out while the rest of the global guidance keep a closed circulation drifting slowly W. The frontal boundary appears to be a focal point for multi day heavy rainfall events and even some suggestion of nocturnal core rains possible Tuesday into Thursday as the boundary sags just N of the Houston Metro. There are some impressive multi day rainfall totals as well being suggested by guidance. Some of the models are ‘hinting’ at isolated totals nearing the 10 inch mark. We will see about that. What is becoming clear is this pattern will likely linger and very well could set the stage for a potential Flood event before all is said and done. Again, we’ll monitor the situation and keep that umbrella handy.

HPC:

...BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

PREFERENCE: NON 12Z NAM COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS WITH THE

UPR LEVEL / 250 MB REFLECTION OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE ERN GULF OF

MEXICO. THE 12Z NAM IS ON ITS OWN OPENING UP THIS LOW INTO A

TROUGH AXIS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD...WHILE THE REMAINING AVAILABLE

GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER LOW AS A CLOSED LOW. THE 12Z NAM IS ALSO

SHOWS GREATER SEPARATION IN THE 500 RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF

COAST BY WED EVENING / 00Z/12. THE 12Z UKMET/CMC SHOW THE

BEGINNING OF A POSSIBLE EVOLUTION TOWARD A SINGLE CLOSED MID LEVEL

CENTER BY THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE...00Z/12...AND DUE TO

UNCERTAINTIES OF THE PATTERN BETWEEN THE WRN RIDGE AND ATLANTIC

RIDGE...WILL RECOMMEND A NON-NAM COMPROMISE THROUGH 00Z/12.

[Srain]

Today through Wednesday appear to provide the best chances for scattered showers/storms across the Eastern half of the Lone Star State on E into Louisiana. Currently a shear axis/trough extends from near Matagorda Bay on NNE into the ArkLaTex Region where a closed mid/upper circulation resides and has been meandering slowly W. Showers/storms are increasing along the Coastal Waters of SE TX on E to Vermillion Bay and off to our W for inland areas. The latest HPC QPF forecasts suggest 3-4 inches of rainfall may be possible the next couple of days. Heavier storms will be slow moving and could drop 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates. By Tuesday, a slowly sagging S frontal boundary should be S of the Red River Valley as the heat ridge migrates W into the Great Basin. A weakness continues in the mid to upper levels across Central/East Texas as a weak frontal boundary sags S of the Red River Valley. A light N flow aloft behind that boundary develops with an onshore flow to the S across Coastal SE Texas/SW Louisiana providing a focal point for a heavy rainfall potential. The forecast remains rather complex and complicated as guidance offers different solutions on just when that ArkLaTex disturbance will be picked up and shunted off to the E. The prudent call appears to keep at least isolated storm chances going into Thursday and Friday before rain chances decrease and the ridge slowly builds back E toward the Central Plains.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active pattern of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the entire week.

The large heat ridge that has brought the record breaking temperatures to the Midwest and eastern US has moved westward and is now centered over the four corners region with the other ridge centered off the US mid Atlantic coast. In between these two high pressure cells aloft, a height field weakness (trough), has developed over the SE US into the southern plains. Tropical moisture has infiltrated the area from the east over the weekend with PWS values on average of 1.8-2.1 inches across the region with the highest values confined to the areas along and east of I-45 and over western LA. This deeply tropical-like air mass combined with general weak large scale lift from the upper trough aloft, weak upper level disturbances traversing the area, and modest daytime heating will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms today-Thursday. Weak northerly steering flow from the four corners ridge will help slowly move convection toward the S and SW, but the mean flow is weak and storm motions will be slow (less than 10mph).

Radar already has numerous areas of moderate rainfall with embedded heavier showers over the region. Suspect with only a few hours of heating this morning, additional and stronger storms will begin to develop (around 1000am). Combination of an uncapped tropical air mass and numerous outflow boundary collisions will support continued development well into the afternoon hours before the air mass becomes “worked over” and stabilizes.

Little to no change in the upper level pattern will keep high rain chances for July standards in place through the week…and very possibly well into next week. Tue-Thurs will feature a weak and diffuse frontal boundary moving into the area from the NNE and this will only add an additional focus for thunderstorm development. The boundary may help to serve as a mechanism to drive more organized storms which could enhance a flash flooding threat compared to the current state of hit and miss type storms. Will need to keep a close eye on the potential for organized convection near/along this boundary and especially during the early morning hours when a weak low level jet over the western Gulf would enhance moisture transport and sustained excessive rainfall rates.

Frontal boundary washes out, but tropical moisture and weakness aloft remains overhead into next weekend. Think activity will return to the more scattered seabreeze variety during the afternoon hours versus the current tropical-like trends of coastal morning development and late morning/early afternoon inland development. Brief riding may attempt to gain some ground from the west in the Friday time period, but doubt this will cut rain chances below 30%. Models are in some agreement and the entire pattern wanting to repeat itself by late next weekend into the following week with high rain chances possibly remaining in the forecast through the middle of July.

Rainfall Totals:

With the tropical air mass in place, excessive rainfall will be likely under the stronger cells. A HCFCD rainfall gage yesterday recorded 3.36 inches of rainfall in a little over an hour and these types of rainfall rates will be common where strong cells develop or any training forms. Totals through the end of the week will average 2-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches. Totals may need to be pushed up some especially over the north and northeastern areas if more organized storms develop near/along the frontal boundary where several inches in a few hours would be possible.

Note: Cloud cover and rainfall will keep high temperatures below normal for July with highs only in the mid to upper 80’s. The high yesterday for Houston was only 83 compared to 97 last year.

[Ed Lizard]

About 2 inches since Friday, not too little, not too much, just right.

It appears to have rained again while I was sleeping.

I noticed Greens Bayou, which is more of a creek where it flows under I-45, was rather elevated yesterday. Hadn't seen it up in a while.

Not sure where it changes from a creek to a bayou. It flooded North of I-10 hours before Ike hit, so it does become tidally influenced eventually, but seems to be more like a creek near me.

Hotlinked radar from KHOU-TV 11. KHOU stands for Houston.

[Srain]

No real change this morning via the overnight guidance. In fact if anything, rain chances may well extend into the weekend/early next week as the upper pattern will change little with a boundary stalled across E Central Texas and a series of short waves dive SE into the region and a weakness or inverted trough lingers across the area with SE Texas lying in the tropical air mass with PW's in the 2.2 to 2.4 range.

Overnight we have seen rather heavy rainfall rates above 2 inch per hour to our W move to the Coastal Counties and are now weakening. Another short wave is dropping S up near the Dallas area and will likely be our trigger for heavy showers/storms later today up near College Station and sagging S with very heavy rainfall rates. Should storms develop later this morning, I suspect a Flash Flood Watch may be needed as there appears little in the way of change for tomorrow into Thursday. This wet pattern may well linger until the 16th-17th before isolated storms become the theme and even that may be a tad too soon to dry us out. We will see.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Same upper air pattern remains in place today with only more moisture to work with.

Round of heavy rainfall has pushed southward overnight into the Gulf waters dropping a decent 1-3 inches across our western counties. Air mass over the area has briefly stabilized behind this round, but expect another round of storms to begin to fire off after only a few hours of heating this morning. Trough axis remains parked over the region and evening soundings yesterday were tropical with PWS over 2.0 inches and nearly saturated air mass through the air column. With trigger temperatures only in the low to mid 80’s it will not take much to get things going today. Additionally, a weak front will approach and stall just north of our region helping to serve as an additional focus for more organized storms.

With the trough axis overhead creating general lift and the nearing frontal boundary storms over the last 24 hours have become more organized and slightly longer in duration which has bumped up the rainfall totals. PWS are forecasted to remain over 2.0 inches and may peak near 2.4-2.5 inches later today suggesting excessive short term rainfall rates are likely. Storms will be more than capable of dropping 2-3 inches in an hour if not more. Short term models really like the idea of thunderstorms redeveloping over our western counties later this morning and sagging SSE into much of the area by afternoon, only to refire over our western counties again tonight. Radar trends do support this thinking some as storms have recently developed east of Austin and are sagging very slowly SSE, but feel the entire area is at risk of storms with heavy rainfall today into Wednesday.

Little change in the wet pattern through the end of the week. Moisture will begin to lower some each day past Wednesday, but it will be slow to come down and plenty will remain for rainfall. It is likely that we will gradually transition back to the afternoon type activity along the seabreeze by Thursday-weekend, but coverage looks to remain fairly decent and a status quo 40% each day looks good through Sunday. As for temperatures the clouds and rainfall are keeping them below normal for mid July in the mid 80’s. Where a few prolonged breaks develop highs could push into the low 90’s.

Rainfall Totals:

Rainfall is starting to add up at locations after several days of heavy rainfall. Luckily thus far there has been enough breaks between rounds to keep any flooding to that of the street variety. Flash Flood Guidance remains generally above 3.0 inches for most of the area in 3 hours except for Harris and Liberty counties where guidance is only 2.0 inches in 3 hours. Given the ability of this air mass to produce 2-3 inches in an hour, the flood threat will be on the rise today into Wednesday. Still not overly concerned as long as storms do not become organized into lines or bands and sit and train over an area. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are likely through Thursday with isolated totals of up to 6 inches.

[Ed Lizard]

Local PW on morning soundings: 2.3" at LCH, 2.1" at CRP and FWD. CRP and FWD already have decent SB Cape at 7am local.

[Srain]

Flooding in Bastrop County just S of Austin:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

BASTROP OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

901 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BASTROP

OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS IS AN EVACUATION NOTICE TO ALL RESIDENTS ON COMANCHE TRAIL

OFF OF FM 969 IN WEBBERVILLE. IF TRAPPED CALL 9 1 1. THE FIRE

DEPARTMENT IS EN ROUTE.

[Ed Lizard]

Good thing its rainy this week.

[andyhb]

Flooding in Bastrop County just S of Austin:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

BASTROP OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

901 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BASTROP

OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS IS AN EVACUATION NOTICE TO ALL RESIDENTS ON COMANCHE TRAIL

OFF OF FM 969 IN WEBBERVILLE. IF TRAPPED CALL 9 1 1. THE FIRE

DEPARTMENT IS EN ROUTE.

Man, to think of where we were in this area/county last year...

[DoctorMu]

Man, to think of where we were in this area/county last year...

True. There's a lot more runoff this year though as a consequence. The gift that keeps on giving.

[Srain]

Early morning e-mail from Jeff:

Training band of excessive rainfall currently extends from near Victoria to Bay City to offshore of Galveston.

This band is producing rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour over portions of Matagorda and Jackson counties. This band appears to be in conjunction with weak large scale lift aloft and low level convergence at the surface. Extreme moisture remains over the area helping to foster intense short term rainfall rates. With grounds saturated run-off is increasing and flooding is becoming a threat…a flash flood watch will be issued shortly for areas south of US 59 and west of I-45 where heavy rains fell yesterday.

Radar trends suggest additional storms trying to develop northward of this main band approaching the US 59 corridor. Should more organized storms move into the urban areas some significant street flooding will be possible for the morning rush hour as a HCFCD FWS station record over 1 inch of rainfall in 30 minutes this morning.

[Srain]

From Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning in effect for Jackson, Matagorda, and SW Brazoria counties until.

At 530am radar shows a band of intense rainfall from Victoria to Bay City nearly stationary. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour is common under this band with storm totals approaching 4-5 inches over Matagorda County and Jackson County.

Flooding is likely under this band of slow moving intense rainfall.

Band should continue for at least the next 1-2 hours as favorable low level inflow off the Gulf collides with weaker inland winds creating a favored low level convergence zone. An additional 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has already fallen is possible in the warning area. Significant run-off and flooding will be generated.

Other storms are developing across the western parts of the area and expect these will congeal into bands over the next few hours. Watching Harris County closely as 1 hour rate of 2.72 was recorded at the HCFCD office.

Also for our NW Zones:

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

532 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXC041-185-201-339-473-477-111230-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0074.120711T1032Z-120711T1230Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

WASHINGTON TX-GRIMES TX-HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-BRAZOS TX-WALLER TX-

532 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 527 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO

THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN

THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST

HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE

NAVASOTA...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...WALLER...

MAGNOLIA...PINE ISLAND...MONTGOMERY...STAGECOACH AND TODD MISSION.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 0942Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0915Z JANKOT

.

LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...HEAVY RAINS IN SE TX

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TEXAS SE

COAST WITH BEST RATES AT THIS TIME INVOF JACKSON COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL

MERGERS HAVE INCREASED RATES. IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD TOPS COOLING

AND EXPANDING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT

UPSTREAM HELPING INCREASE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE

IN PLACE WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWATS AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.0"

AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG S TEXAS COAST

(5000 J/KG CAPES) AND (-7C LIS). MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE IN MERGING

CONVECTION SUGGEST RATES OF 1.5"/30MIN. RATES OF 2-3"/HR IS POSSIBLE

IN DEEPEST CORES/BEST CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ALSO

ANTICIPATE SOME OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SW LA.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0945-1245Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE IN SE TX WITH BEST RATES

INVOF JACKSON/VICTORIA COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION

ARE CURRENTLY MERGING. EXPECT RATES IN THE 1-3"/HR RANGE IN DEEPEST

CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS ALSO MOVING INTO SW LA BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR

THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD BE AROUND JACKSON COUNTY WHERE 3 HR FFG IS UNDER 3.0".

[Srain]

Updates from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include all SE TX counties now until 700pm this evening.

Widespread clusters of very heavy rainfall (1-2.5 inches per hour) developing over a large part of SE TX. With grounds saturated, significant run-off is being generated. Storms will continue to develop and move very slowly across the area producing excessive rainfall and flooding.

Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts are likely with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Already this morning parts of Matagorda County have received upwards of 5-6 inches of rainfall. Radar is starting o show development filling in over Wharton, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, and western Harris Counties.

Overnight rainfall of 3-5 inches on top of heavy rainfall yesterday has led to a significant rise on the Tres Palacios River at Midfield in Matagorda County.

Overnight the river has risen over 10 feet and is nearing flood stage. Excessive rainfall continues to fall over the drainage basin and the river is expected to rise above flood stage this morning.

Current Stage: 22.59 ft

Flood Stage: 24.0 ft

Forecast: river is in a rapid rise and will reach flood stage this morning and continue to rise to near or above 25.0 ft today. At levels above 24 feet, flooding begins at flow spills into the right upstream floodplain.

[Srain]

Jeff reports .92 inches of rain in the past 15 minutes in NW Harris County @ HCFCD gage 1190 (Upper Cypress Creek at Mathis Rd).

[Srain]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Harris, Montgomery, Waller, Washington [TX] till 11:00 AM CDT

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 1309Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1245Z JBN

LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

ATTN WFOS...BRO...

ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...ONGOING MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT IN SE TX...DEVELOPING MOD/HVY RAIN

THREAT LA INTO SRN MS

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES

TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED OVER SERN TX ATTM. CLOUD

TOPS STILL SHOWING A NICE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR WHERE MOST ACTIVE

CONVECTION IS ATTM WITH VIS IMAGAERY SHOWING A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS

WELL. SEVERAL FEATURES INCLUDING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW/AND

SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ACTING AS FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION

TO DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE

EXACTLY WHERE BEST PRECIP MAY SET UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER,

THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION AND MOD/HVY RAIN

REMAINS OVER SERN TX AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF GOOD SFC

CONVERGENCE/DEEP MOISTURE. SATELLITE HYDRO-ESTIMATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTING

THAT 3-4" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF MATAGORDA/JACKSON/WALLER

COUNTIES WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD 1-3" ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX/SWRN LA THE

PAST 3 HRS. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS,

COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 4" AMTS OVER PORTIONS

OF SE TX/SW LA.

.

HEADING FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL LA/SRN MS, VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF

CONVECTION TRAILING A REMNANT MCV OVER NRN MS THAT CONNECTS WITH ANOTHER

MCV OVER SWRN LA. THIS BAND IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT IN

IR IMAGERY AND MAY INTENSIFY SOME THE NEXT FEW HRS. SINCE THE LINE IT

ORIENTED WSW TO ENE AND IS MOVING ENE, THINK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY

OF SOME TRAINING IN THESE AREAS. RAIN RATES NOT THAT HVY RIGHT NOW,

BUT IF INTENSIFYING TRENDS CONTINUE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING

RAIN RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOD/HVY RAIN FROM

CNTRL LA TO SRN MS.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT

AREA AND AN ESTIMATE GRAPHIC SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE

ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1315Z-1615Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR

IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN OUTLOOK FOR SERN TX AS ONGOING DEEP

CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION

DEVELOP THIS MORNING. ONLY THING TO GO WRONG WOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO

SHIFT OFF THE COAST, BUT DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING AT THIS POINT. SO

MOD/HVY RAIN SHOULD STAY FOCUSED OVER SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS

LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS. A LITTLE BIT MORE

UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO CNTRL LA/SRN MS. BAND OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH

THE CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD AND THERE ARE SEVERAL MCVS TO HELP ENHANCE

THE CONVECTION, BUT MAY NEED A FEW MORE HRS OF SUNLIGHT/HEATING TO

DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SOME REALLY DEEP CONVECTION GOING AND

CREATE A GREATER FLOOD THREAT.

[Ed Lizard]

Whatever the name of the creek or bayou is at I-45 and I-10, which flows into Buffalo Bayou, it is out of its concrete banks.

Just light to moderate rain on I-45 to I-10 to I-610 commute. (I-10 to I-610 is usually faster than following the North Loop/West Loop around)

[Srain]

Whatever the name of the creek or bayou is at I-45 and I-10, which flows into Buffalo Bayou, it is out of its concrete banks.

Just light to moderate rain on I-45 to I-10 to I-610 commute. (I-10 to I-610 is usually faster than following the North Loop/West Loop around)

White Oak Bayou. The heavy rains in NW Harris County are falling in the upper water shed of White Oak and Cypress Creek.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

816 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

BEXAR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* AT 810 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE

DETERMINED THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY

RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SAN

ANTONIO METRO AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO

OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN

ANTONIO...ALAMO HEIGHTS...CALAVERAS LAKE...CHINA GROVE...

ELMENDORF...HOLLYWOOD PARK...KIRBY...LACKLAND AFB...LEON VALLEY...

LIVE OAK...OLMOS PARK...SEA WORLD...SHAVANO PARK...ST. HEDWIG...

TERRELL HILLS AND WINDCREST.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3

INCHES ACROSS GUADALUPE AND COMAL COUNTIES SINCE 6 AM THIS MORNING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES

OF RAIN ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA...INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN

AREA. RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICK TO RUNOFF AND WILL

CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

Widespread moderate to heavy rains continue across SE TX this morning with numerous Flash Flood Warnings in effect.

Coastal rain band has weakened and shifted offshore with a large area of moderate rainfall across Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties. Meso low feature has developed over Waller/SW Montgomery Counties and this is focusing very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches over NW and W Harris County into all of Waller and Austin Counties. Waller County S.O. is reporting high water on many roads around Prairie View.

This feature is moving very slowly to the ENE and will continue to support heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour over northern Harris into much of Montgomery County for the next 1-2 hours. Over the coastal counties rainfall rates of .5 of an inch per hour will continue on top of the 4-6 inches that has already fallen overnight leading to continued flooding problems.

Radar shows additional storms starting to develop NW of Victoria and these may impact already hard hit locations along the coast later this morning.

With the trough axis overhead and very tropical moisture in place excessive rainfall and flooding will continue to be a threat given the now saturated grounds.

Tres Palacios River Update (Major Flooding Forecasted):

Current Stage: 27.23 ft

Flood Stage: 24.0 ft

Forecast: River is in a very sharp rise and forecast to reach 29.6 ft later today (29.0ft is major flooding level). At levels above 29.0 ft major low land flooding begins as both approaches to FM 456 are cut off and water is over FM 1468 near Clemville, FM 2431 near Midfield, and FM 2853 near Blessing with several homes in the El Dorado Country, Oak Grove, and Tres Palacios subdivisions flooded. Residents along the river should take the necessary actions to protect their life and property.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

856 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

EASTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 851 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE

745 AM FROM SOUTHEAST OF GOLIAD TO NORTH OF VICTORIA. THIS AREA

RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.

SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

GOLIAD...VICTORIA...ANDER...COLETO CREEK PARK...DOWNTOWN VICTORIA

AND FANNIN. SOME CREEKS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

SPRING CREEK AND GARCITAS CREEK.

[Ed Lizard]

Update from Jeff:

...

Tres Palacios River Update (Major Flooding Forecasted):

Current Stage: 27.23 ft

Flood Stage: 24.0 ft

Forecast: River is in a very sharp rise and forecast to reach 29.6 ft later today (29.0ft is major flooding level). At levels above 29.0 ft major low land flooding begins as both approaches to FM 456 are cut off and water is over FM 1468 near Clemville, FM 2431 near Midfield, and FM 2853 near Blessing with several homes in the El Dorado Country, Oak Grove, and Tres Palacios subdivisions flooded. Residents along the river should take the necessary actions to protect their life and property.

[My Weather Today]

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

431 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH

THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST

TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...

BEAUREGARD AND VERNON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...

JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...

SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.

* FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES STARTING DURING THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO DAY ON THURSDAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS

IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS

THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE

PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN BETWEEN 3 AND 8 INCHES WITH SOME AREAS

RECEIVING 10 INCHES ALREADY SINCE THE RAIN EVENT STARTED. THIS

HAS CAUSED SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS TO RUN NEAR BANKFULL AND

THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

* DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS...SMALL STREAMS

AND BAYOUS ACROSS THE AREA MAY FLOOD ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER

IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND

THURSDAY.

[Ed Lizard]

Heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning at my house.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/12/12 1111Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z JBN

.

LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

ATTN WFOS...BRO...

ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SE TX/LA

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE

NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SWD THIS MORNING. TO

THE SE OF THIS FEATURE, A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW TAKING SHAPE

OVER SE TX/LA IN AN AREA OF GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE/UL DIVERGENCE/AND DEEP

MOISTURE. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE EXPANDING LINE OF CONVECTION VERY WELL

WITH SEVERAL CELL MERGERS TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH COOLING/EXPANDING CLOUD

TOPS. WIND FLOW ALOFT IS STILL PRETTY LIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION

TO BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AGAIN THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL

FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOD/HVY RAIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

WOULD EXPECT THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO EXPAND FURTHER IN COVERAGE THE

NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE. SFC OBS FROM ACROSS THE

REGION SUGGEST RAIN RATES AT LEAST THE IN THE 1-2"/HR RANGE AND WOULD

NOT BE SURPRISED IF RATES OF 2-3"/HR WERE OCCURRING IN THE MOST INTENSE

CONVECTION. THREE HOUR HYDRO-ESTIMATE PRODUCTS ALREADY SUGGEST 1-1.5"

OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ALONG THIS LINE OF CONVECTION THE PAST 3 HRS OVER

SE TX. WOULD EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BEGIN INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH

AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"/ISOLATED 4"+ OF RAIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. WITH ALREADY

SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS, COULD AGGRAVATE OF CREATE

ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE REGION.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA

SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY

10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1115Z-1415Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOD/HVY RAIN SETTING UP

FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE TX COAST AND PARTS OF LA AGAIN THIS

MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN NEXT 1-2 HRS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER SE TX AND SW LA

WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO CNTRL/NRN LA LATER

ON IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. WITH LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE, SHOULD

LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.

.

[ksstormhunter]

@11Z My output currently tracking a lot of thunderstorm activity across the Southeastern part of Texas. Showing strongest area for thunderstorms and heavy rain from Galveston-Houston-Lafayette region. Output for SE TX and LA is uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm