Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

One more day of rainfall potential before ridging begins to build over the region and hotter and drier weather returns.

Tropical wave axis is now well inland over SW TX along with a mid/upper level low over NE MX south of the southern TX border. Best moisture is gradually shifting westward with local radar showing much less activity this morning over the Gulf waters compared to yesterday at this time. Highest moisture axis currently extends along the lower into the middle TX coast where greater radar coverage is in progress. Best rain chances today will be along and west of I-45 and maybe even further west as drier air enters the area from the east during the day. Radar still shows a few showers off the SW LA coast indicating enough moisture lingers just to our east and may allow a few additional showers/storms over our eastern counties. Best coverage will be across our western counties into SC and S TX.

Upper level ridging will build out of MX over the next 24-48 hours into W TX ending rain chances and increasing temperatures as cloud cover decreases. Still feel there may be an isolated storm on the seabreeze on Thursday with the best chances from Matagorda Bay south and westward. Area will be on the southern side of the ridge into the weekend and early next week with a dry and hot forecast currently the most logical course.

Tropics:

Area of board low pressure development still appears at least possible in the Gulf of Mexico at some point, but model solutions are surprisingly varying with each run and from model to model on where any formation will happen and in what direction it may move. A couple areas of interest have shown up this morning. The first in the NW Caribbean Sea where deep convection has persisted overnight, although I have not been able to close off any low level circulation…mainly looks to be ESE or SE winds through most of the region. The second area I was watching yesterday afternoon over SE MX west of the country of Guatemala where visible images showed what appeared to be a well defined surface circulation. Overnight it appears this feature moved NNE toward the southern Yucatan with deep convection developing. I cannot find anything in the surface observations suggesting there is in fact a surface low in this region, but it sure did look likely on the visible images yesterday…awaiting the first few visible frames today to see what they show. Anyhow, any development from this region will be slow due to only marginally favorable upper air conditions and interactions with the land areas of central America. For now will keep the moisture contained to the central Gulf or southward, but cannot deny the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means showing the low pressure eventually making its way into the western Gulf at some point early next week. Models may finally get some kind of grasp on the situation once a defined circulation develops.

Yesterday afternoon the NHC upgraded an area of low pressure over the far north Atlantic to Tropical Storm Chris. Only twice before as the third tropical cyclone of the year formed before June 19…1887 and 1959. Chris evolved from a cold core frontal low pressure system and has gradually acquired warm core tropical features over the past 48 hours. Yesterday afternoon the system developed a compact circulation with deep convection and was declared a tropical cyclone. The system will remain over the open Atlantic and not affect any landmasses.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Refreshing rainfall of the past few days will be ended as strong high pressure begins to build over the region.

High pressure aloft will be building out of NW MX across the southern plains over the next 24-48 hours ending our chances for rainfall as tropical moisture is suppressed to our south and subsidence increases. High temperatures will begin to increase today and continue that trend into early next week with several guidance models showing the area reaching/exceeding 100 by early next week. With the wet grounds and green vegetation, suspect guidance is likely a degree or two too warm, but 100 degrees will be likely especially north of I-10 by early next week. Will need to keep an eye on heat index values as they rise toward or above 105 early next week. Dry air aloft should mix down in the afternoon hours helping to keep those values from getting out of hand.

Tropics:

Elongated surface trough extends from the Bahamas across Cuba to the southern Gulf of Mexico. A very broad and weak surface low pressure system has formed on this trough axis over the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico near/just NE of the northern coast of the Yucatan. I cannot find any surface observation with any valid west wind, so I do not think the system is closed off on its southern side and continues to exhibit a sharp trough axis. There was a NW wind report from a ship in the Yucatan Channel, but this observation seems suspect and does not match with the overall broad circulation. The global forecast models continue to have their problems with this system as to where it may develop and then track. The operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF take the system toward the western coast of FL around the middle part of next week. But both appear to be deepening the system too much. The CMC takes the system toward the NW Gulf also likely too strong. With ridging developing over TX, one would expect the downstream trough on the eastern side of the ridge over the SE US to induce a general NE to ENE steering pattern, and while this appears likely the steering will be weak allowing the system to remain in the Gulf for several days. Much of this depends on exactly where the surface low becomes defined over the next 48 hours. NHC currently gives the system a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

[DoctorMu]

grab a cup 'o brew

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY

DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COASTOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OFCLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THECENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRALCUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITEDATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMIS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARESLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSOIMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENTOF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HASA HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRALGULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COASTSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THEWEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THEYUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGHSATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULEDTO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

the cauldron is bubbling. Whether it organizes or remains a hot mess to be deteremined

[Lilac-DownDeep]

I'm sure where I live we wouldn't mind the tropical moisture to curb the drought even more. We still haven't completely recovered. So as of right now, I'll post the 8 AM Outlook for today. Hold your colours, ladies and weathermen.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE

GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275

MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN

ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES

EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR

MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF

THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...

90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY

NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION

OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS

AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY

RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR

SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

Oh yeah, hello! I'm new here. Please don't bite me. :c I'm usually anxious and nervous, so just message me and direct me to places if I do something wrong.

[Ed Lizard]

NAM is a Debby Downer locally, a landfall on the Mexican border but all the rain South of my yard. GFS is the GFS, ie, East...

[DoctorMu]

Updated

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCEDATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRALGULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINEDSURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATERTHIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS.TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTIONOF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THISAREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVYRAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ANDMUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCEWINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASESEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

[Ed Lizard]

Off for a ~30 hour staycation at the Popo Playa Party Pad on Galveston island, glass 13/16 full it'll still be there for July 4th 3 day weekend.

[DoctorMu]

Battle of the trough vs. ULH. The models are still all over the place.

NOAAs HWRF provides a chance of law watering service with the active E side to SE TX, with the center coming in near Brownsville...and NAM is now curving up towards Galveston.

NHC not buying the GFS solution

[DoctorMu]

Go West young lady. Very low confidence with disparate models (GFS vs. Euro), but I like the thought.

[DoctorMu]

for your lawn watering fantasy pleasure

[DoctorMu]

[msp]

flying home from europe and spending saturday night in houston. just caught wind of this little thing. has it made up its mind yet as to east or west?

[DoctorMu]

flying home from europe and spending saturday night in houston. just caught wind of this little thing. has it made up its mind yet as to east or west?

The main convection near the center was sheared off overnight...the center of slopgyre drifted NE towards Fl where the only real band is located spiinning of tiny funnels. Not what I was expected or hoping for.

Although NHC still has a Western solution, GFS is ruling the day so far.

[DoctorMu]

That ULL off the Texas coast may have been more of a player than anticipated. We're hosed on this one it appears.

[Ed Lizard]

Water levels halfway to the dune at Jamaica Beach. green, calm looking water, gentle (looking) swells that pack more punch than they look to have as they crash right on the surf.

Seriously bummed about CRP storm raining on my lawn not happening. If MJO really is a 40 day wave, it'll be August before the tropics get active again. Just home, sprinkler running, watching NASCAR on DVR...

Now glass 63/64th confident the Party Pad is safe...

[Srain]

The big weather story the next couple of days will be the Heat. Near heat Advisory conditions are expected with the heat index nearing 105 to 110. There is a wrinkle in the forecast for late Tuesday. A disturbance in the mid and upper levels develops just beneath the Central US Ridge and we may have enough instability to generate some strong storms with the potential of strong to severe pulse type convective cells with hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Rain chances may increase further later this week as the ridge flattens and increasing Gulf moisture finally begins to stream NW and inland across the Region.

[Ed Lizard]

^^ New NAM just misses us to the West w/ storms, but close enough can't rule it out, and morning KHOU TV met and NWS HGX noting temps above 100ºF could mean some strong winds. Even dewpoints normally considered humid produce a healthy T/Td spread when it gets mondo-hot...

[DoctorMu]

not a cloud and up to 97° already in CLL, heading towards the 103°F range with heat indexes up to 110°F.

GFS, feeling vindicated after its lone wolf East Debby solution panned out, provides this small token on Wed.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Here is good ol' TX comedy for you guys that I made today for some laughs at the NWS

I still love you NWS, but I couldn't help myself from picking on the situation.

[Srain]

HGX mentioning an inverted V signature in 00Z sounding with PW's of 1.9 and convective temps near 100F capable of breaking the cap. The SPC does have a See Text issued for the S Central/SE Texas Region. We'll see if storms can fire as a disturbance drops SW from Arkansas later today as a boundary approaches. The SREF suggests we could see additional storm chances on Wednesday as well.

The overnight operational guidance is a bit more hopeful with increasing rain chances as we begin July. Moisture streams in from the NW Caribbean into the Gulf as 500mb upper low/trough rotates beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge as a weakness develops across the Southern half of Texas putting us on the E side of that disturbance. PW's look to increase to near the 2.0 range and bring increasing shower/storm chances for Central/SE Texas as an onshore flow increases. Convective temps look to decrease to the 80's allowing sea breeze showers/storms to stream inland from the Gulf spreading inland Saturday into Sunday. We will see.

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0751 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AND SRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED...EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS THIS

PERIOD...FLANKED BY UPR TROUGHS/LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN

RCKYS...AND NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...T.S. DEBBY EXPECTED TO TRACK

SLOWLY E TO ENE ACROSS THE NERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD PER NHC

FORECAST.

...MT/NRN PLNS TODAY/TNGT...

NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE

INTO CNTRL ID THIS AFTN...AND INTO SRN AB TNGT...WITH ASSOCIATED

STRENGTHENING SWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW OVERSPREADING NRN MT AND ND.

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED

DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD TSTMS IN ZONE OF LOW LVL WAA OVER NRN MT THROUGH

MIDDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED

ATOP EARLIER STORM OUTFLOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR

TROUGH...THEY COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK MAY DEVELOP TOWARD EARLY AFTN ACROSS FAR

NW/NRN MT AS DIURNAL HEATING ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY

SFC-BASED...AND BEFORE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS NWD BEYOND

REGION. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN INCREASED RISK FOR DMGG WIND

AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE N INTO CANADA.

FARTHER E...OTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG/SVR TSTMS MAY FORM OVER THE WRN

DAKOTAS NEAR LEE LOW/TROUGH. WHILE APPRECIABLE CAPPING COULD LIMIT

THE EXTENT OF SVR THREAT...AT LEAST A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF

SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN WRN ND.

...FL TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...

SLOW ENE MOVEMENT OF T.S. DEBBY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...MODERATELY

SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED. EWD

MOTION OF DEBBY AND ITS PERIPHERAL INTERACTION WITH UPR TROUGH OVER

THE NE U.S. MAY KEEP LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE REGION SOMEWHAT

VEERED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF 40+ KT

700 MB FLOW ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF SFC

HEATING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF STORMS WITH BOWING

SEGMENTS/DMGG WIND OVER CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA...AND

AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. MORE

ISOLD ROTATING STORMS ALSO COULD ARISE ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS

THROUGH EARLY WED NEAR WSW-ENE CONFLUENCE/WEAK BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY

ACROSS N FL.

...ERN THROUGH S CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE...

ON THE ESE SIDE OF EXPANSIVE UPR RIDGE...SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN

HOT/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK BACK-DOOR COOL FRONT

MOVING SW FROM THE ARKLATEX. WIND PROFILES ACROSS ERN AND SE TX

WILL FEATURE 15-30 KT...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL ENELY FLOW IN THE

700-500 MB LAYER. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED...HIGH PW

ENVIRONMENT...THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A FEW CLUSTERS THAT

PROPAGATE SW OR WSW TOWARD THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY. THESE COULD

YIELD ISOLD DOWNBURSTS/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH EARLY TNGT.

...CO/WY FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...

SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE OVER NE CO AND ERN WY AS ARC OF

MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING NNE ON WRN FRINGE OF PLNS RIDGE INTERACTS

WITH TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER

EXTENDING E INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS. WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT

OCCURRING W OF APPRECIABLE LOW LVL MOISTURE...SBCAPE WILL REMAIN

LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V

PROFILES COULD YIELD ISOLD DOWNBURSTS/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...MAINE/CSTL NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

A CLUSTER OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY FORM TODAY OVER CSTL NEW

ENGLAND...NEAR LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS ROTATING SE BENEATH UPR LOW.

OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM CONVEYOR BELT FARTHER E

ACROSS ERN ME. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD HAIL...BUT MEAGER

BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 06/26/2012

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Record heat will continue one more day over the area bringing back memories of 2011…but the heat will not last to the length or severity of 2011. See section below on heat records.

Massive upper level ridge centered over the central plains continues to produce widespread 100+ degree afternoon temperatures. Drier air above the surface will continue to mix down in the early to mid afternoon hours and this has been lowering dewpoints and RH values resulting in heat index values of less than the 108 needed to issue a heat advisory. Overnight lows have been falling mainly into the upper 70’s except for the urban areas where lows have been in the lower 80’s. We are right on the cusp of the required criteria for a heat advisory, but at this time we do not meet the standards. We see most locations head for the low to mid 100’s this afternoon (100-105) with heat index values of 104-109.

Severe Threat:

With the air mass becoming super heated by midday (upper 90’s) and a short wave approaching from the NE with a pool of deeper moisture expect to see a few thunderstorms develop as intense heating breaches the hot trigger temperatures. NAM and GFS forecast soundings are very similar for this afternoon showing a strong inverted “V” or upside down goal post sounding indicating high cloud bases and dry air below the cloud bases. With the GFS forecast sounding is showing the cloud bases in the 850-800mb range (or between about 6600 and 7500 ft) above the ground and then rapidly falling dewpoints and rising temperatures below this level supporting the dry sub-cloud layer. This points strongly toward some of the rainfall evaporating as it begins to fall from the cloud base and developing strong downward momentum. Additionally, temperatures in the 800-900mb level will be in the 55-70 degree range and this will combine with the evaporation to help produce strong downburst winds and rapidly spreading outflow boundaries. Damaging winds to 60-70mph will be possible with any storms that develop this afternoon and outflow winds of 40-50mph will be possible even well away from the storms as the cooler and drier air aloft clashes with the near surface low 100 degree heat. Storms will likely continue into the evening hours as the air mass will remain very warm (mid to upper 90’s) past 900pm).

Climate:

Record highs fell at several sites yesterday including an impressive record at Palacios.

The high at Palacios reached 102 degrees and this is the hottest June temperature ever recorded at this location and ties (Sept 3, 2011) for the 3rd warmest temperature ever at this site.

Galveston reached 100 degrees yesterday for only the 8th time ever. The daily high temperature record of 96 in 1875 was broken. Galveston had never recorded a June temperature of 100 before yesterday. It is interesting to note that of the 8 times Galveston has reached 100 degrees, 5 of those times have been since 2000!

The records on the coast were due to weak NW winds helping to keep the seabreeze boundary very near the beaches or even offshore and allowing the inland heat to be pushed toward the coastal sites.

Records high for Monday, June 25:

Galveston: 100 (old record 96 in 1875)

BUSH IAH: 102 (tied record of 102 in 2009)

Hobby: 102 (tied record of 102 in 2009)

Corpus Christi: 105 (old record 99 in 2009)

Victoria: 106 (old record 103 in 2009)

San Antonio: 103 (tied record of 103 in 2009)

Palacios: 102 (old record 96 in 1984)

Angleton: 101 (old record 99 in 2009)

League City: 101 (old record 99 in 2009)

[Quixotic1]

90 degrees at 9 am at DFW. Forecast of 105 might be on the low side.

[Ed Lizard]

101ºF at the big airport in Houston at Noon. RAP not as encouraging as I'd like concerning storms, but a ballpark 1.8 PW with a 30ºF T/Td depression would be something to see if storms did fire.

Still inside (Eastern edge) of the SWODY1 Slight Risk area, and a 5% hail risk has been added to the 15% wind risk from this morning.

...SERN/SOUTH CENTRAL TX...

STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE OVER A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.

THE STRONG HEATING IS ESTABLISHING A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED

LAYER...AND AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS

INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS

AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG NELY MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KT AT

500MB/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL

CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE SWWD AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH

THIS EVENING.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0202 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261902Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A

HOT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE

MID-LEVEL NELYS...UPDRAFTS COULD COALESCE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER

WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...CU HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND HILL COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF

SCATTERED CIRRUS SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN

GULF COAST MAY BE ENHANCING ASCENT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW

REACHING 100-105...MLCIN SHOULD BE WEAK WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY

LAYER PER ACARS DATA INVOF AUS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT

TSTMS SHOULD FORM...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED

SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES BREEDS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE DEVELOPMENT

WILL FOCUS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL NELYS

SAMPLED IN THE LEDBETTER TX PROFILER WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR

ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE

RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND AND SOME HAIL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/26/2012

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

[DoctorMu]

104° and we have ignition

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Some impressive records fell yesterday across the region as the heat wave moved into its 3rd day.

Heat Advisory in effect from noon to 800pm today.

Sprawling upper level ridge centered over the plains continues to provide extremely warm late June weather. The weak short wave which combined with early afternoon temperatures in the 102-106 range yesterday to produce a few severe thunderstorms has moved SW of the area in the ENE upper air flow. Morning low temperatures have only fallen to 86 at Galveston (GLS was still 88 at 300am) and in the low to mid 80’s across the urban metro areas. These very warm morning readings combined with afternoon heat index values at or above 108 requires the heat advisory to be issues. Residents should limit their outdoor activity to less than 30 minutes between the hours of 200pm and 600pm when heat index values will be the highest. Highs today will again reach the low 100’s at most locations. With trigger temperatures in the upper 90’s to near 100 and afternoon highs expected to meet or exceed these values, cannot rule out a few very isolated strong late afternoon thunderstorms. Drier air moving in from the ENE should keep development less than yesterday.

As is usual under such strong high pressure and weak wind fields, visible satellite images have shown a large mass of haze over the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico and inland over much of TX. This is due to the fairly stagnant conditions that are common under large domes of high pressure in the summer months. This haze when combined with the daily pollution across the metro area will support high readings of ground level ozone this afternoon.

The mammoth upper level ridge will begin to break down and back off to the north and west starting Thursday and this will allow afternoon temperatures across the coastal areas of TX to fall back into the upper 90’s. Inverted trough/upper level low off the TX coast will begin to retrograde (move westward) into the coast and then inland on Friday and this feature will help to moisten a fairly dry air mass. Combination of increasing moisture, cooler convective/trigger temperatures in the lower 90’s and a more favorable seabreeze setup will support at least a chance of rainfall this weekend (20-40%). Best chances will be south of HWY 105 where moisture will be the greatest, the seabreeze will serve as a focus, and the influence of the central US high will be weakest. Increased moisture, rain chances, and cloud cover will help return temperatures to near normal for late June (low to mid 90’s) helping to end the current heat wave. Hopefully we will see some rainfall to help wet the ground not allowing the ridge to strongly re-establish over the region early next week. The ridge will not back off over N TX during this period and that is of some concern as soil moisture will continue to decline and the intense heat will help build on itself (helping to pump up the ridge and keep it locked in place…much like last summer.)

Record Highs for Tuesday June 26:

College Station: 106 (broke record of 105 in 2009)

Galveston: 97 (broke record of 95 in 1875)

BUSH IAH: 105 (broke record of 104 in 2009)

Hobby: 102 (broke record of 99 in 2009)

Brownsville: 103 (broke record of 100 in 1900)

Waco: 107 (tied record of 107 in 1980)

Austin Mabry: 109 (broke record of 105 in 2009, set new all-time June record high, previous record was 108 on June 14, 1998)

Corpus Christi: 106 (broke record of 100 in 1980)

Victoria: 108 (broke record of 102 in 2009)

San Antonio: 106 (broke record of 103 in 2009)

The low temperature of 85 yesterday at Galveston is the hottest low temperature ever recorded during the month of June. It should also be noted that the 100 degree high at Galveston on Monday was the first time the city has ever hit 100 degrees during the month of June.

Tuesday Storm Reports:

A few isolated storms developed in the intense afternoon and as suspected they produced some severe weather.

7S Tomball, Harris: .75 inch hail at Louetta and Grant Rd

Jersey Village, Harris: Dime size hail at West Rd and Telge

Addicks, Harris: 4 hangers damaged at the West Houston Airport

Columbus, Colorado: .50 hail and trees/power lines blown down.

[Srain]

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise increasing Gulf moisture as our winds turn E to ESE and PW's increase beginning late Thursday. By Saturday, a 500mb low/upper trough develops across S Texas and moisture streams NW from the Bay of Campeche. A SE wind flow and lower convective temps with no capping should do the trick to spark showers/storms beginning Saturday and increasing Sunday. Coastal Counties along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast could begin to see streamer showers as early as Friday. The upper dynamics with the upper air trough/low to our SW should bring favorable conditions for scattered storms. Also there will likely be a chance of brief tropical funnels with this kind of setup. Dry air should begin to shift back in on Monday as the ridge once again builds across Texas.

HPC:

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE UNDER THE

WARM CORE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS...BRINGING SOME RAINS TO SOUTHERN

TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MONSOONAL

THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO NEXT MONDAY AND

TUESDAY.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Record heat of the last few days will end as increasing moisture brings better rain chances and cloud cover to the area keeping temperatures closer to late June averages.

Visible satellite images and radar shows a few shower developing along the coast this morning suggesting moisture is increasing over the area from south to north as the upper ridge that has been in control of late has begun to weaken and back off to the NW. Upper level trough along he TX coast will slowly move WNW over the weekend placing the area under increasingly deeper tropical moisture and favorable lift side of the trough axis. Given the look of things this morning on both satellite and radar, feel rain chances may be slightly higher than 20% for today and could see better coverage on Friday into the weekend as it appears the deeper moisture is already arriving into the area. Seabreeze boundary will be active each day over the weekend and expect to see showers and thunderstorms develop and move northward from the coast Fri-Sun. Best chances will be across the southern 2/3rds of the area closer to the deepest moisture and away from the influences of the plains ridge. Should see a good 40-50% coverage each day with a few locations getting a good soaking. Increased rain chances and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low 90’s for highs over the weekend or near late June normals.

High pressure looks to built back into the region by early next week ending rain chances and pushing temperatures back into the mid to upper 90’s but not the 100’s like this week as a cooling onshore flow will be present.

[Srain]

There is little doubt moisture is on the increase this evening down in the Western Gulf. The upper trough is currently spinning NW of the Hill Country and drawing that Gulf moisture N and W. The HPC has slowly increased the QPF forecast along the Texas Coast the past couple of days. As we have seen many times, these upper low/troughs can throw a curveball or two and are very difficult to forecast. Regardless, we will be 'cooler' and chances of scattered showers and storms are increasing. The fly in the ointment will be just how quickly that upper air disturbance shifts W into Old Mexico.