Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[wxmx]

Time for a new thread as we are nearing the 1000th post mark in the old one.

Looks a bit warm in the short and medium range, but rain possibilities will still linger in that same time period. The most interesting weather could be in C and E TX.

[#NoPoles]

i would like to campaign in this thread for Jorge to come to Conference II

[wxmx]

i would like to campaign in this thread for Jorge to come to Conference II

Could the campaign include a donate button?

[Amped]

Nice Droughtbuster on the GFS

[Srain]

The guidance continues to advertise a wet and stormy pattern beginning Saturday night in far W TX and slowly migrating E on Sunday through Tuesday, It appears a deep Western trough will develop a cut off upper low and become slightly negative tilted Sunday into Monday creating a very heavy rainfall/severe weather event for W Central/Central TX and points N along a dry line.

A Pacific boundary will slowly crawl east on Monday night into Tuesday as the U/L deepens over Texas generating impressive storm totals and severe storms along and E of the dry line/boundary. There are some suggestions that areas in Central/N Central and E TX could see rainfall totals in the 5-8 inch range spreading over several days and some isolated 10 inch amounts + are not out of the question.

The bigger story with this event is the severe weather potential. The SPC has outlined areas in W Central TX on Day 4 and slightly further E on Day 5. As St. Patrick’s Day weekend progresses, increased low level Gulf flow and gusty Southerly winds will pump rich tropical moisture across Texas along with veering wind profiles as the U/L deepens will create an opportunity for rotating discrete super cells and a tornado thread is becoming a bit more clear for a large swath of the Southern Plains. Training cells will bring very heavy rainfall rates as they generally move from S to N along the trough axis/dry line as it creeps E over several days.

For us in SE TX, the better chances of rain and storms look to increase on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Tuesday seems to be the better shot for severe weather here, but there is some uncertainty regarding just how quickly the trough axis and Pacific front will push into our area. Another fly in the ointment is some suggestion by the Euro that the boundary will stall somewhere over our area with heavy rains training from SW to NE along that boundary as the U/L meanders over N Central TX. That situation will need to be monitored and with guidance uncertainty and being 5-6 day out, expect ‘fine tuning’ in the longer range forecast in the days ahead.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 150834

SPC AC 150834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0334 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE...ALBEIT

SLOW-MOVING...UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. INTO

THE PLAINS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER

FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN NEB

INTO WEST TX BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS

BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE AS 500MB FLOW INCREASES IN

EXCESS OF 50-70KT. BY DAY5 STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM

AND THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE KS/OK

BORDER...SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX. BEYOND DAY5 THERE IS

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER

TROUGH...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODE.

[Ed Lizard]

^^^

A little less rain for us (HOU/HGX) on Euro and GFS, but plenty of rain in the Brazos and Trinity basins, so the reservoirs should be getting even more full..

Liking the looks of Mondays 18Z Euro sounding for DFW, I wish AccuWx Euro graphics were available at 3 hour intervals, would love to see the 21Z sounding, because CAPE already pushing 1000 J/Kg at 18Z, decent shear, and a nice TT of 54. GFS at 0Z has about a third an inch of convective rain before the windshift, again good looking shear, low to mid 50s TT (from wxmaps.org meteogram) and LI of about -4º

Euro at 7am Tuesday locally in HOU has a 1008 mb meso-high, probably a cold pool, pushing some nice linear convection our way. Linear feature, CAPE that early below 500 J/Kg, but decent mid-level instability and very favorable shear profiles suggesting some embedded action in the line. No capping and a 45 to 50 knot 850 mb jet.

[Srain]

Continued improvement with our ongoing multi year drought and prospects for rains as we move further into the Spring are very encouraging...

[Ed Lizard]

I await the HPC disco on the GFS deep cutoff wandering around the Panhandles for days and days.

Sadly, even though I'm not at all sure about that solution, I'd have hoped for lower thicknesses right under the upper low than what is progged, and some near Equinox snows for lucky places in Western Texas/Oklahoma.

The retogressing surface low would be kind of cool, especially if it put us into dry Westerly flow, then backed up, and turned the flow onshore again.

[Ed Lizard]

Timmer chose that as his chase place.

Juicy CAPE but not only a 20 to 30ºF T/Td spread, but fairly light winds near surface.

[Ed Lizard]

Still early, but NAM sounding with rain on the door step has a potentially tornadic look for Austin area. GFS sounding for 72 hours (NIU doesn't know NAM goes past 60 hours now...) has a bit of the January flavor for Houston, marginal instability but impressive helicity courtest of a meso-low passing just North and West..

Upper low not a whole lot more progressive on the last day's runs than a few days ago, but just progressive enough, and even though it is slow to move out, dry air looks to rule South Central and Southeast Texas.

[Srain]

EWX issues Flash Flood Watch Monday evening into Tuesday for areas E of a line from Rocksprings down to Pearsall that includes the San Antonio and Austin Metro areas and the Hill Country Lakes Region.

[andyhb]

There are some ugly looking parameters Monday evening and overnight and early Tuesday morning. across Southern/Central TX on the southern end of the line and ahead of it, which on the 06z NAM's composite reflectivity, looks to have semi-discrete/discrete convection. This includes many of the major metros along the I-10 and I-35 corridors, basically in an area south of a line from Brownwood to Lufkin. All of this area is located within the current 30%/hatched area on the Day 2, except for the immediate Gulf Coast. I mean look at this hodograph for Corpus Christi at 3:00 in the morning on Tuesday. This is the result of a secondary, 40-70 kt LLJ developing as the upper level low closes off and the surface low developing in southern TX strongly backs the surface winds.

Will repost this in the severe thread as well, but I figured it belongs here too as I know there are several members from this area on this board.

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Significant spring storm system to affect the central plains early this week with severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Powerful upper level trough over the western US today will move eastward and deepen into a cut-off low pressure system over the southern plains early this week. At the surface strong SE winds continue to feed unseasonably moist and unstable air mass off the western Gulf northward into TX. Weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft on the eastern flank of the current western US trough has been helping to develop afternoon/evening thunderstorms over SW/W TX over the past 72 hours. This pattern will continue this afternoon with thunderstorms firing over the mountains of NE MX and tracking ENE/E into the border region of TX. Increasing downstream mid level cap should prevent much of this activity from reaching SE TX.

Monday PM-Tuesday:

Severe weather/heavy rainfall event becoming increasingly likely.

Strong storm system will eject into the plains sending a cool front plowing eastward into what becomes by Monday afternoon a very moist and unstable air mass over TX. Low level jet is expected to really crank up starting early Monday with 925-850mb winds out of the S on the order of 50-65Kts this will be overspread by mid level flow out of the SW at 60-80kts (a nasty veering and increasing wind profile with height…shear). Surface heating Monday afternoon will work with the increasing moist along with the incoming cold air aloft from the west (resulting in an increasing unstable and buoyant air mass). Last ingredient will be the cool front which will help lift the air mass and break the remaining capping in place…the result will be vigorous and significant thunderstorm formation across SW through NC TX Monday afternoon/evening.

Severe Threat:

Storms will initially be supercellar in nature with very large hail and tornadoes possible and then transition into a forward moving squall line/MCS overnight into Tuesday morning. Large line of severe thunderstorms will approach our western counties in the 600-900am Tuesday period and then move slowly across the area during the day on Tuesday. Breaks in the overcast downstream of this line will destabilize the air mass resulting in the potential for cells to develop ahead of the main line (supercells). Wind shear appears more than favorable for tornadoes both ahead of the main line and spin-ups along the line. Additionally, the strong mid level flow favors damaging winds along the leading edge of the squall line/MCS complex. Still some uncertainty on exactly how everything is going to develop and move/and how fast…but the late Monday-Tuesday afternoon period is looking fairly rough. SPC already has much of the area outlooked for a severe threat on Monday afternoon/night and for Tuesday. There is the potential for an upgrade by SPC of portions of our area into a moderate severe risk…especially if the tornado threat increases any more. All severe modes will be in play with this event….tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

Heavy Rainfall:

As with previous storm systems this winter/spring, abundant Gulf moisture and vigorous convection has resulted in some impressive rainfalls making 2012 one of the wettest years so far on record. This next storm looks not to disappoint as moisture levels once again increase to nearly 200% of normal with very good low level inflow off the Gulf pumping a continuous feed of moisture into developing storms. Of greater concern is the potential for the line of storms to slow as in moves into SE TX and toward the coast on Tuesday morning as the upper level winds becoming increasingly parallel to the cool front/outflow boundaries…potentially allowing a period of cell training (one cell after another moving over the same area). Deep convection will result in some impressive short term rainfall totals of 2-3 inches per hour. Grounds are wet from the previous rains and rivers are already running above normal so additional heavy rainfall will generate some rapid run-off. Urban flash flooding is also a concern with the expected high hourly rainfall rates. A Flash Flood Watch may be required for parts of the area on Monday. A River Flood Outlook is in effect for significant rises on the Navasota and Trinity Rivers.

[Ed Lizard]

As mentioned by NWS FWD, besides severe, models suggesting widescale heavy rain event, ie, river flooding... Besides the possible Monday night and then points East into Tuesday severe weather in South Central and Southeast Texas.

[DoctorMu]

25-25 mph winds in CLL with fast moving showers rolling through. The sky-shredding had begun just W of Lubbock. Hang on for a bumpy and wet next 40 hrs.

[Srain]

HPC Flash Flood Guidance Outlook Day 1 (3/19/2012) and Day 2 (3/20/2012)

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Significant severe weather event including the potential for strong tornadoes increasingly likely this afternoon through Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding also likely on Tuesday.

SPC has upgraded the severe threat to a moderate risk for much of central and north TX.

Discussion:

Powerful upper level storm system will move slowly into the southern plains today/Tuesday with widespread downstream thunderstorm development over TX. Parameters appear to be coming together for a widespread severe weather event across much of the state this afternoon-Tuesday. Combination of increasingly cooler air aloft over heated surface air, strong jet stream dynamics, tremendous wind energy, and favorable instability all point to severe weather including tornadoes…a few strong.

As large scale forcing increases this afternoon over central TX, expect to see rapid development of isolate supercells capable of very large hail (baseball size or larger) and tornadoes. Meso scale models show numerous supercells developing in the 300-800pm period this evening roughly along the I-35 corridor in central TX with fairly rapid upscale growth into a large line of severe thunderstorms extending from SW MO to S TX overnight/early Tuesday. Initial cells will be a higher tornado threat (see SPC moderate risk outline below) in the region of favorable backed low level flow lending strong low level shear in a very moist air mass. Strong squall line (possible bow echo…line of thunderstorm with widespread wind damage) appears possible after midnight across central and SC TX in the region of strong jet dynamics and favorable low level Gulf inflow (low level jet of 50kts+ over the middle/upper TX coast). Strong mid level flow of 60-80kts plowing into the underside of the upper level storm and the backside of the squall line suggest wind damage is likely with this line. Surface wind gusts to 60-70mph will be possible with the squall line.

Line should approach our western counties between 200-400am and then slow some reaching the I-45 corridor between 600-1000am. Still some questions on timing as the models slow the line as the main upper storm slows down however strong cold pool generation could help shove this line faster to the east than the meso models are suggesting. Some concern than meso low formation on the line just north of SE TX could result in a buckling and slowing/stalling of the line over some portion of the area on Tuesday into Tuesday night which would keep a severe and then significant flash flood threat into Tuesday night.

Severe Impacts:

Damaging winds of 60mph or greater appear to be the greatest threat at this time with large hail and tornadoes a close second. Wind threat will increase overnight into early Tuesday with the greatest tornado threat this evening and then again on Tuesday after mid morning as the air mass heats. As is usual with these types of squall lines in SE TX brief tornadoes will be possible along the leading edge of the line with little warning.

Heavy Rainfall:

Starting to get a little concerned with a few of the models trying to slow and stall the line of storms over the area on Tuesday-Tuesday night. Moisture levels will be increasing to near 200% of normal today and with very favorable low level inflow off the Gulf and strong upper level divergence aloft the red flags for excessive rainfall are in place. Main question is does the storms move through or slow enough to drop 4-5 inches of rainfall in a few hours. Given the amounts of moisture that will be in place combined with the threat for slowing storm motions and training of cells some hefty short term totals will be possible. Models have been bouncing around with the idea of widespread amounts of 2-4 inches across various areas of SE TX and the latest HPC output shows a large swath of 2-4 inches over the area with a bullseye of 6.42 inches just east of metro Houston. Given the likelihood of high short term rainfall rates of (1-3 inches per hour) urban ponding/flooding on streets and areas of poor drainage is likely. Grounds are already wet from previous rainfall and run-off will be enhanced with this event producing rises on area watersheds. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for central and north TX and a watch may be required for parts of SE TX later today.

Hydro:

Several rivers are still seeing higher than normal flows from the last round of heavy rainfall and based on the current forecast several basins will see additional widespread very heavy rains tonight-Wednesday. Form the WGRFC in Fort Worth:

Moderate River flooding is likely on the: Upper Sabine, Upper Neches, and middle Trinity Rivers.

Moderate River flooding is possible on the: Middle Brazos, middle Colorado, upper Guadalupe, and upper San Antonio Rivers.

Rises to flood stage will be possible on smaller creeks and bayous across the state.

***Remember to never drive into high water even if it is “not deep”. Always turn around don’t drown!

Tornado Safety:

We have seen the large tornado outbreaks over the past year and TX has been largely spared in part due to the drought. The following tips are reminders of what to do if a tornado approaches your location:

Seek shelter in a strong sturdy building, abandon poor constructed housing

Abandon mobile homes for strong shelter, if no shelter is available lie flat in a ditch or low area and cover your head with your hands.

In a strongly built structure move to an interior room on the lowest floor of the location away from windows and outside facing walls. Cover yourself with pillows and blankets to protect from flying debris.

Never tie to outrun a tornado…abandon vehicles for strong shelter, if a strong shelter is not available lie flat in a ditch an d cover your head…DO NOT hide under freeway overpasses…they act as wind tunnels and increase the wind speeds under and around them.

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook:

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

Significant severe weather and heavy rainfall event just about to get underway across TX.

Wind:

Advisory verifying well early this afternoon with frequent gusts at or over 35-40mph at several sites…including 44mph at Victoria in the last hour. Strong southerly winds will continue this evening a clear sign of developing activity to our west.

Severe:

No big chances to the severe threat for the area with all severe modes still in play for this afternoon across central TX to tonight-Tuesday over SE and E TX. Tornado threat may be slightly more elevated than thought this morning given especially across central TX this evening and SE TX on Tuesday. 600am CRP sounding showed 0-3km SRH of 258 m^2/s^2 and these values will likely increase this afternoon and overnight as low level wind field remain backed out of the SE below SW mid level flow. Still think the main threat will be wind damage along the leading edge of some sort of squall line, but a few significant tornado events (especially this evening over SW/Central/NC TX) are possible. Additionally, rapid spin-ups along he leading edge of the line could result in streaks of damage.

Numerous watches and warning are likely over the next 24 hours.

Heavy Rainfall/Flooding:

A very challenging forecast with respect to rainfall as some really big totals are possible…but where is the outstanding question. Upper level storm will cut off over OK with a favorable south to north oriented band of excessive rainfall slowing and stalling out somewhere over eastern TX/W LA. Given tremendous moisture inflow off the Gulf of Mexico, very favorable upper air divergence in a splitting jet structure, nearly saturated air column, and flow becoming parallel to surface boundary (increasing threat for training) prodigious rainfall amounts appear likely. Based on some of the gridded flash flood guidance numbers it appears the threshold to really start getting into some problems will be between 3-4 inches of rainfall in a 1 hour time span…of course these values will decrease after the rainfall begins. Given the amounts of moisture and potential for cell training hourly rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible on Tuesday. This will create the potential for rapid and significant urban ponding/flooding.

I am not overly confident on when/if the squall line stalls over the area and where, but this would be the location of greatest threat. Current suggestions have this area roughly from Houston to Lake Charles as the main area for some really big rainfall amounts.

Run-off generated from this rainfall will result in significant rises on area watersheds and river basins already running high.

HPC has upgraded most of SE TX into a moderate risk of exceeding our flash flood guidance values.

A Flash Flood Watch may be required this afternoon for all of the area.

[Srain]

Updated HPC QPF Forecast keeps inching further W with higher rainfall totals...

[Srain]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/19/12 1846Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1840Z JBN

.

LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...

LOCATION...KANSAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...HVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION FROM TX TO WRN MO...

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVERALL SET UP IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE

CNTRL U.S. LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS

PORTIONS OF TX/OK/ERN KS/MO/AR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP

TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS THAT IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING EWD ATTM

AND IS RUNNING INTO A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION/TENNESSEE

VALLEY. VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME IS SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO

FEATURES AND STRETCHES FROM TX TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITH PWATS

AVERAGING 200-250% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONGOING CONVECTION

SEEN IN IR/VIS IMAGERY OVER NRN AND CNTRL TX/OK/ERN KS/WRN MO CONTINUES TO

SLOWLY CRAWL EWD WITH THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TROUGH IS BECOMING

MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED, AND THIS EWD MOVEMENT MAY SLOW FURTHER OF COME

TO A COMPLETE HALT THE NEXT 3-6 HRS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED

MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT.

.

WV IMAGERY NOW SHOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH

WITH ONE WAVE ENTERING SW TX AND A SECOND WAVE OVER SRN AZ ATTM. MAIN

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING SW TX. A NICE

120 +KT SATELLITE DERIVED JET STREAK IS RIDING NEWD WITH THIS SHORTWAVE

AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL UL SUPPORT TO RE-INVIGORATE CONVECTION

THAT IS ONGOING ATTM WHILE SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BACK BUILDING CONVECTION

ON THE TAIL END OF THE LINE OVER CNTRL TX. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HRS A SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIAL ROUND OF

HVY RAIN PULLS AWAY INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE CLOUD TOPS COOLING

AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAIN RATES AGAIN AS A

RESULT. TRAINING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A REAL THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON AS UL WIND FLOW IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH OVERALL MOISTURE

PLUME/LINE OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE HYDRO-ESTIMATE PRODUCTS/MESO-NET

OBS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1-2" RAINS FROM N-CNTRL TX TO SE KS WITH A

FEW AREAS NEAR CNTRL OK REPORTING 2-2.5" OF RAIN THE PAST 3 HRS. SIMILAR

AMTS OF 1-3" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER

E ACROSS CNTRL TX/ERN OK/NW AR/ERN KS/WR MO THE NEXT FEW HRS.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA

SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY

10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1845Z-2245Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EWD

ACROSS KS/WRN MO/OK/CNTRL TX ATTM. THIS LINE HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF

WEAKENING WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS, BUT SHOULD GET A BOOST FROM THE

SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING SW TX. MAY SEE THE THREAT FOR HVY RAIN SHIFT A

BIT FARTHER S INTO N/CNTRL TX/ERN OK/NW AR/SW MO THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE

NEWER ROUND OF CONVECTION TAKES SHAPE. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE SEVERAL

INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS THE NEXT 2-4 HRS.

[Srain]

Another update from Jeff:

Strong winds continue over the area this afternoon.

Frequent wind gust at or above 40mph are being reported across the area including 44 at Victoria and 42 at Palacios with 38 at IAH. A wind gust to 69mph was reported at Victoria earlier today.

With radar showing a few developing showers over the area, strong winds aloft may be transported to the surface resulting some minor wind damage (downed tree limbs) and disruption of power. Currently over 9,000 residents across the Houston metro area are without power.

Strong winds will continue overnight ahead of a squall line due into the area toward sunrise.

[bubba hotep]

Not going to muck up the other thread with this:

Flash Flood Warning Collin & Dallas County

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

TXC085-113-200600-

/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0007.120320T0200Z-120320T0600Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

900 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 859 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 2 MILES SOUTH OF DALLAS...MOVING

NORTH AT 40 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE

WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TRAINING ACROSS THE

COUNTY WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 100 AM CDT. SOME

STREETS IN THE CITY OF DALLAS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO FLOOD.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN

INCLUDE...HIGHLAND PARK...IRVING...SUNNYVALE...UNIVERSITY PARK...

FARMERS BRANCH...COPPELL...GARLAND...ROWLETT...ADDISON...

CARROLLTON...RICHARDSON...SACHSE...MURPHY...PLANO...PARKER...

WYLIE...ALLEN...LUCAS...FRISCO...FAIRVIEW...LOWRY CROSSING...

MCKINNEY...FARMERSVILLE...PRINCETON...PROSPER...CELINA AND ANNA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE

DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW

MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED

AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL

WATER RECEDES.

&&

[Ed Lizard]

Bubba- not sure if there is any hail contamination, but it is still raining your way...

[#NoPoles]

wooooo TX, sure hope you guys know how to uild an ark!

[Ed Lizard]

Close but no cigar, still 3.5 years since I have witnessed 50 knot wind gusts. I'm guessing in excess of 30 knots, rocked the car at a traffic light.

Been closer to 5 or 6 years since I've seen hail 1 inch or larger.

I live in the anti-Kansas.

[bubba hotep]

Rain is finally pulling out and it was an impressive rain:

[wxmx]

After this event, it looks like a dry up period, with troughing off both coasts and ridging over most of the CONUS. Will it last?

[Ed Lizard]

Houston will be ok with a week or two of dry weather.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Pesky slow moving upper level storm over NW TX still affecting the area this morning with additional rain showers. Line of severe weather and heavy rainfall stalled out overnight near the Sabine River/extreme western Louisiana as models were suggesting and produced widespread rainfall of 8-10 inches from near Orange, TX to DeRidder, LA. Extensive and widespread flooding is ongoing across Orange and Newton Counties in eastern Texas and several parishes in western Louisiana.

Upper level storm should begin to move off to the NE on Thursday taking with it the rain chances by later today. Until then disturbances rotating around the low will continue to generate scattered areas of rainfall through midday. Even had a few lightning strikes and gusty winds this morning with the activity. Weak surface and high pressure aloft will result in sunny skies and seasonal March weather for the area Thursday through the weekend.

While no additional significant rainfall is expect over the region, the damage has already been done with respect to big river rises and potential river flooding from now through the weekend. Will cover all the rivers in a separate e-mail later this morning.

Tuesday Storm Reports:

Weimar, Colorado County: law enforcement report damage from strong winds

Bunker Hill Village, Harris: Funnel cloud sighted from Marathon Tower. Possible contact with ground.

Piney Point Village, Harris: Numerous large trees down

Bunker Hill Village, Harris: possible tornado. Trees and fences blowned down along the Beltway from I-10 to Westheimer

Pearland, Brazoria: possible tornado. Shingles blown off roofs and fences blown down in the South Fork Subdivision

Houston, Harris: damaging winds snapped trees and moved a parked truck

Jacinto City, Harris: Large trees uprooted, carports destroyed…estimated winds to 65mph.

Bellaire, Harris: trees down in the 4600 block of Gibson

Heights, Harris: large tree limb down on parked car at 18th and Heights.

Channelview, Harris: trees limbs down

The Woodlands, Montgomery: a few trees down on roads

Bacliff, Galveston: 35mph wind gust recorded by Eagle Point CMAN station

Port Bolivar, Chambers: 56mph wind gust recorded 6 miles offshore at Galveston Bay entrance buoy.

Rockport, Aransas: 42mph wind gust

Port O Connor, Calhoun: 42mph wind gust recorded at TCOON site

George West, Live Oak: 80mph downburst occurred with significant wind damage occurred for 1.5 miles by 2.5 miles wide. Metal roof blown off of two hotels, power poles snapped near their base, numerous trees downed…all pointing toward the ESE.

Bob Hall Pier, Nueces: 45mph wind gust

Rainfall:

Waco: 6.71 inches (4th highest 24 hour rainfall on record at this site). Wettest 24-hour period for the month of March (previous record was 4.22 inches on March 29-30, 2007)

College Station: 2.38 (broke old record daily rainfall for March 20 of 1.65 in 2006)

Brenham: 1.84

Crockett: 2.06

Madisonville: 2.28

Somerville Dam: 2.20

Liberty: 2.64

Radar Rainfall Estimates:

[Ed Lizard]

After the rain clears out, dull but nice weather. I think I saw the Bunker Hill storm wall cloud, it did not have anything that looked like a funnel when I saw it looking Southbound down I-610 between Post Oak and Westheimer exits, but it looked like what a wall cloud looks like on TV.