Powerball Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Typical results last night southern MI. South of I96 gets scattered t-storms while north of I96 nada. It is so predicable it is funny. Not only that, notice how th storms weakened as they moved through the eastside then exploded as soon as thy crossed over into Canada. Oh well, hopefully the convective debris can clear up for a nice day. Edit: OOPS, that won't be happening for a couple hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky now in a slight risk for severe weather today. Not much of a wind threat... Hail seems to be once again the primary threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Woke up about 3am to a huge crack of thunder and the electricity went out. Without the ceiling fan, it began to get too warm for me to sleep. I'm laying there thinking how much this reminds me of something you experience in mid summer and yet it's mid March. ...just unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Absolutely no change to the new outlook (literally a carbon copy of the old one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 that storm was insane eh felt like an earthquake. then all the sirens after it ended...hope everything is alright. people om twitter were freaked lol Ya I could hear all the sirens as well. Did not get any hail but saw plenty of lighting and thunder Just saw the news there were several fires and two incidents were people were struck by lightning eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Severe thunderstorm watch for Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and the GTA. SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12:18 PM EDT THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR: CITY OF TORONTO WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT SARNIA - LAMBTON ELGIN LONDON - MIDDLESEX SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND OXFORD - BRANT CITY OF HAMILTON HALTON - PEEL VAUGHAN - RICHMOND HILL - MARKHAM NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY WATERLOO - WELLINGTON DUFFERIN - INNISFIL BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND. CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREAS AFTER 2:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS ARE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, HAIL UP TO TOONIE SIZE AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Wondering about that activity to our SW in IL. RUC and HRRR don't seem to have a good handle on it. Judging by instabilities ahead of it, I would say pulse type (little to no shear is present) strong to severe (hail/downburst) storms will continue through evening. Question for us in Ohio is can we destabilize. Didn't get much in Columbus and the cirrus shield from the southern OH storms is currently blocking much incoming sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Looks like Scott AFB has taken over SPC duties for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Weird to see such weak shear for a setup in the middle of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Weird to see such weak shear for a setup in the middle of March. As Alek said in some other tread....2012 throwing all the rules out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 As Alek said in some other tread....2012 throwing all the rules out the window. Yeah just incredible to see only a max of 35kts through the column at this time of year. Hell unless you are under a death ridge in the summer you will end up with more wind speed aloft than 35kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Not to mention we now have 3000+ SBCAPE in MI. Just adds to how weird/rare this pattern we're in now is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Not to mention we now have 3000+ SBCAPE in MI. Just adds to how weird/rare this pattern we're in now is. I think things will pop very soon in the center part of the state, you can see the front and a band of CU along it there and there are a few radar echos starting to show up associated with it. This is going to be a widely scattered event so everyone isn't going to see something. But I think a few could get some hail/winds with the pulse storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think things will pop very soon in the center part of the state, you can see the front and a band of CU along it there and there are a few radar echos starting to show up associated with it. This is going to be a widely scattered event so everyone isn't going to see something. But I think a few could get some hail/winds with the pulse storms. yeah I was just about to mention that. I'd be looking around US 127 for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 New warning approach from Environment Canada SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:53 PM EDT THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE AND LOCAL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS UNTIL 4:00 PM. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Looks like Scott AFB has taken over SPC duties for the day Noticed that. Wonder why? Well, not much has changed since last night. I'm not expecting much to come out of this. However, we should see some slow moving discrete cells (if that isn't obvious), and seeing the amount of instability we have, it will be quite a light show for most of us. Hail threat will most likely stay isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Pretty crazy to be this unstable in March. My back yard got hit by quite a little hail storm in the morning. The pounding on the roof woke me up and I was like "what the hell is that" and then I remembered there was a threat for hail today so I looked out and was greeted with one of the more impressive hail storms I have seen. I took a few pics which I will try to post later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 801 ACUS11 KWNS 151953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151952 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-152115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151952Z - 152115Z THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS SERN LOWER MI. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS AREA. A FEW TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W/E THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI...AND WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING N/S INTO NWRN OH. MODIFIED 18Z DTX RAOB SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. 30 KT WLY FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DESPITE THE LACK OF APPARENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND LACK OF MLCIN MAY RESULT IN A GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING E/SEWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 03/15/2012 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 43768406 43968300 43648241 42618242 41118312 40718374 40768456 41638487 42488470 43768406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 LOL dtx just issued a "significant weather advisory" for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Dtx afd sounds a lot more optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Oh PLEASE let those cells near Howell continue to build my way. PLEASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 LOL dtx just issued a "significant weather advisory" for most of the area. Lol, it's like the severe thunderstorm watch of special weather statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Warnings popping up across semi. I get out of class in 15 min so I shouldn't miss anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Warnings popping up across semi. I get out of class in 15 min so I shouldn't miss anything Yeah those cells moving in from lansing to jackson should be close to your area in an hourish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 356 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND DEVELOPING CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM 18Z SHOWED A CAP HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 850MB. CONSERVATIVE SOUNDING MODIFICATION WITH A T/TD OF 74/60 YIELDED ABOUT 2400 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HAD COMPLETELY WIPED OUT THE CAP. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAD RISEN TO 74 OR ABOVE AT 300 PM...AND SPC ANALYSIS MAPS ALSO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM OFF STORM COMPLEXES IN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. THIS BOUNDARY SETTLED ROUGHLY FROM SAGINAW BAY TO LANSING TO JACKSON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS THEN ENHANCED AS WINDS TURNED TO THE WEST BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THIS LINE IS STARTING TO FILL IN WITH CONVECTION...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHER SOURCE FOR UPWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WILL BE THE WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. PULSE TYPE STORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON...THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LINE SEGMENTS. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AS TALL AND FAT CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST UPDRAFTS REACHING THE 0C AND -20C LEVELS. (FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 11KFT WITH THE -20C LEVEL NEAR 20KFT). DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...WITH A SLIGHT INVERTED V LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS...AND ALSO JUST GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ONE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING...FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS HAS TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CANNOT THEREFORE RULE OUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO. BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3PM AND 10PM. MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB AS FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST OFF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD...DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...AND WINDS GO CALM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Oh PLEASE let those cells near Howell continue to build my way. PLEASE If you're anywhere close to M-59, it looks to be coming for a noisy visit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 675 WWUS20 KWNS 152029 SEL6 SPC WW 152029 MIZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-160100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 76 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 430 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75... DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM JUST WEST OF SAGINAW BAY TO NORTHWEST OF TOLEDO. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J PER KG /SEE 18Z DTX RAOB/. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, 30 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020. ...WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I would suppose this would have been loud thunder, with some 1" hail reported near Toledo at 3:00AM. (0750z.. whatever the heck that is in Eastern time.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 No surprise that storms are on the way. Very Humid with full sun. Prime conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nasty looking cell south of Howell. Has some rotation on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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