Indystorm Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 SPC has a slight risk in morning outlook predominantly for possible hail concerns with storms. Give prospects and obs. RUC seems to think areas along Mississippi River in IL/IA closer to greatest progged CAPE might be involved per Craven Sig Svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 I know it's a bit anecdotal and the slight risk is a little further to my south and east but when I stepped out the door this morning to head to work it just felt like thunderstorms. Gotta love that feeling. Also a quick look to the south showed something billowing. Pretty low and looked like it was going to die out before it got to be anything but it was nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Pretty hail-friendly atmosphere for any storms that do get going today. 1) Very steep lapse rates throughout the profile (700 temps only 2-4C), including a SFC-LCL lapse rate >10C/km (greater than the dry adiabatic rate). Should be plenty of free convection/thermals today to help get storms going, if in a disorganized fashion. 2) (Tv) Virtual temperature-adjusted CAPE on the order of 3000-3500 in many spots, and a high amount of CAPE is present in the hail growth zone, which is at a lower level than in a typical summer case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Pretty hail-friendly atmosphere for any storms that do get going today. 1) Very steep lapse rates throughout the profile (700 temps only 2-4C), including a SFC-LCL lapse rate >10C/km (greater than the dry adiabatic rate). Should be plenty of free convection/thermals today to help get storms going, if in a disorganized fashion. 2) (Tv) Virtual temperature-adjusted CAPE on the order of 3000-3500 in many spots, and a high amount of CAPE is present in the hail growth zone, which is at a lower level than in a typical summer case. I would agree and I think the same potential holds true for tomorrow across Lower MI although tomorrow could gel into more of a multi-cell cluster versus today being more individual cells as there is a bit of forcing tomorrow with a weak front in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Spc got rid of the slight risk for tomorrow, lack of wind shear is their reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Spc got rid of the slight risk for tomorrow, lack of wind shear is their reasoning Yeah I don't see much difference between last night and this morning's runs so I am not sure what caught their eye enough to remove the risk area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Yeah I don't see much difference between last night and this morning's runs so I am not sure what caught their eye enough to remove the risk area.. Maybe simply a forecaster change. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back if short term trends look favorable tomorrow. This excerpt from the 1st paragraph: A HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR MID-MARCH RENDERS BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR A D2 FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Maybe simply a forecaster change. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back if short term trends look favorable tomorrow. This excerpt from the 1st paragraph: A HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR MID-MARCH RENDERS BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR A D2 FORECAST. Yeah I would agree on that. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Another point is, as was mentioned in the March OBS thread, the NAM's seemingly unreasonable dew points and the crazy CAPE values that came with it don't seem all that far-fetched now. Of course this doesn't eliminate the shear issue but it's got to help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Recent SPC meso indicating that lack of shear/forcing was precluding a possible watch in far southern IL and that anything that forms will be very isolated. Probably the same situation farther north unless a LLJ gets active tonight or some boundary comes into play on Thursday. Current cells in se MO are hardly moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 I am reminded today that the Craven Significant Severe parameter is strongly tied to CAPE and only gauges the possibility of svr if storms are able to form. I often see its high values outside any area where t storms are likely to initiate when considering other parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 332 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... WEST CENTRAL CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT. * AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARBLE HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... JACKSON...BURFORDVILLE...MILLERSVILLE...DAISY AND OAK RIDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen "walnut sized hail" in a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Have a nice intensifying t storm cell that popped up in sw St. Joe County IN moving in my direction. Can see lightning to my sw with stars and planets overhead. Will see what happens shortly. Well, my classic pulse type single cell t storm has just collapsed before it even made it past U.S. 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 0z NAM Sounding for Findlay tomorrow at 5pm edt... Lots of cape... .2 1-km helicity LOL LOL Plus an insane lapse rate of 9.3C/Km. Can anyone say lots of hail possible with this sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Not particularly impressed with this potential event. If anything does get going, there will be plenty of lightning associated with what forms, perhaps some flash flooding due to slow storm motion, and PW values above 1". Can't really touch on the hail threat, except for what others have already mentioned so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Not particularly impressed with this potential event. If anything does get going, there will be plenty of lightning associated with what forms, perhaps some flash flooding due to slow storm motion, and PW values above 1". Can't really touch on the hail threat, except for what others have already mentioned so far. Our area actually tends to actually do BETTER in these type of setups (there's a lot more instability and moisture to work with, it's taking place during peak heating and there will be a shortwave moving through), versus the set up we had the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Slight risk is back but farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Slight risk is back but farther south Much further south and basically in the same place it was yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 had first lightning and thunder of the season with a pulse storm about 30 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just got woken up by a big hailer at my house.... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 316 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO * UNTIL 400 AM EDT *[b] AT 315 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GENOA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.[/b] * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OAK HARBOR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Oh right this thread yeah. A broken line of storms is west of here moving this way with a great light show on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:14 AM EDT THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= HURON - PERTH =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL =NEW= GREY - BRUCE =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA HALIBURTON RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY ALGONQUIN. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 5:10 AM EDT WEATHER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTOR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WIARTON TO GODERICH AND ANOTHER LINE FROM ALGONQUIN TO BANCROFT WITH A POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SLIGHTLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND INTENSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 40 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Had some small hail overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:14 AM EDT THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= HURON - PERTH =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL =NEW= GREY - BRUCE =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA HALIBURTON RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY ALGONQUIN. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 5:10 AM EDT WEATHER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTOR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WIARTON TO GODERICH AND ANOTHER LINE FROM ALGONQUIN TO BANCROFT WITH A POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SLIGHTLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND INTENSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 40 KM/H. Sun rise is 730 and it looks like midnight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Typical results last night southern MI. South of I96 gets scattered t-storms while north of I96 nada. It is so predicable it is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Sun rise is 730 and it looks like midnight here. that storm was insane eh felt like an earthquake. then all the sirens after it ended...hope everything is alright. people om twitter were freaked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 that storm was insane eh felt like an earthquake. then all the sirens after it ended...hope everything is alright. people om twitter were freaked lol Ya I could hear all the sirens as well. Did not get any hail but saw plenty of lighting and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Really nice light show this morning to my SE. Plenty of anvil crawlers . Had the best view from about 6am to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Really nice light show this morning to my SE. Plenty of anvil crawlers . Had the best view from about 6am to 7. Same here in Dayton, could see lightning from the storms east of Columbus. Had lots of "heat lightning" comments when I got to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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