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March 14-17 Midwest Hailers


Indystorm

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I know it's a bit anecdotal and the slight risk is a little further to my south and east but when I stepped out the door this morning to head to work it just felt like thunderstorms. Gotta love that feeling. :) Also a quick look to the south showed something billowing. Pretty low and looked like it was going to die out before it got to be anything but it was nice to see.

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Pretty hail-friendly atmosphere for any storms that do get going today.

1) Very steep lapse rates throughout the profile (700 temps only 2-4C), including a SFC-LCL lapse rate >10C/km (greater than the dry adiabatic rate). Should be plenty of free convection/thermals today to help get storms going, if in a disorganized fashion.

2) (Tv) Virtual temperature-adjusted CAPE on the order of 3000-3500 in many spots, and a high amount of CAPE is present in the hail growth zone, which is at a lower level than in a typical summer case.

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Pretty hail-friendly atmosphere for any storms that do get going today.

1) Very steep lapse rates throughout the profile (700 temps only 2-4C), including a SFC-LCL lapse rate >10C/km (greater than the dry adiabatic rate). Should be plenty of free convection/thermals today to help get storms going, if in a disorganized fashion.

2) (Tv) Virtual temperature-adjusted CAPE on the order of 3000-3500 in many spots, and a high amount of CAPE is present in the hail growth zone, which is at a lower level than in a typical summer case.

I would agree and I think the same potential holds true for tomorrow across Lower MI although tomorrow could gel into more of a multi-cell cluster versus today being more individual cells as there is a bit of forcing tomorrow with a weak front in the area.

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Yeah I don't see much difference between last night and this morning's runs so I am not sure what caught their eye enough to remove the risk area..

Maybe simply a forecaster change.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back if short term trends look favorable tomorrow.  This excerpt from the 1st paragraph:

A HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR MID-MARCH RENDERS  BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR A D2 FORECAST.

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Maybe simply a forecaster change. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back if short term trends look favorable tomorrow. This excerpt from the 1st paragraph:

A HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR MID-MARCH RENDERS BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR A D2 FORECAST.

Yeah I would agree on that. I guess we'll see.

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Another point is, as was mentioned in the March OBS thread, the NAM's seemingly unreasonable dew points and the crazy CAPE values that came with it don't seem all that far-fetched now. Of course this doesn't eliminate the shear issue but it's got to help it.

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Recent SPC meso indicating that lack of shear/forcing was precluding a possible watch in far southern IL and that anything that forms will be very isolated. Probably the same situation farther north unless a LLJ gets active tonight or some boundary comes into play on Thursday. Current cells in se MO are hardly moving.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

332 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

WEST CENTRAL CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

* AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES

NORTHEAST OF MARBLE HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...

JACKSON...BURFORDVILLE...MILLERSVILLE...DAISY AND OAK RIDGE.

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Have a nice intensifying t storm cell that popped up in sw St. Joe County IN moving in my direction. Can see lightning to my sw with stars and planets overhead. Will see what happens shortly. Well, my classic pulse type single cell t storm has just collapsed before it even made it past U.S. 31.

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Not particularly impressed with this potential event. If anything does get going, there will be plenty of lightning associated with what forms, perhaps some flash flooding due to slow storm motion, and PW values above 1". Can't really touch on the hail threat, except for what others have already mentioned so far.

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Not particularly impressed with this potential event. If anything does get going, there will be plenty of lightning associated with what forms, perhaps some flash flooding due to slow storm motion, and PW values above 1". Can't really touch on the hail threat, except for what others have already mentioned so far.

Our area actually tends to actually do BETTER in these type of setups (there's a lot more instability and moisture to work with, it's taking place during peak heating and there will be a shortwave moving through), versus the set up we had the other day.

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Just got woken up by a big hailer at my house....

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
316 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT

*[b] AT 315 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
 STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GENOA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.[/b]
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 OAK HARBOR...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 5:14 AM EDT THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:

=NEW= HURON - PERTH

=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON

=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL

=NEW= GREY - BRUCE

=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND

BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK

PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA

HALIBURTON

RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY

ALGONQUIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE

EARLY THIS MORNING.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

AT 5:10 AM EDT WEATHER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTOR INDICATED A LINE

OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WIARTON TO GODERICH AND ANOTHER

LINE FROM ALGONQUIN TO BANCROFT WITH A POTENTIAL OF BECOMING

SLIGHTLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEAVY

DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND INTENSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS ARE

MOVING EAST AT 40 KM/H.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 5:14 AM EDT THURSDAY 15 MARCH 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:

=NEW= HURON - PERTH

=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON

=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL

=NEW= GREY - BRUCE

=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND

BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK

PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA

HALIBURTON

RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY

ALGONQUIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE

EARLY THIS MORNING.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

AT 5:10 AM EDT WEATHER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTOR INDICATED A LINE

OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WIARTON TO GODERICH AND ANOTHER

LINE FROM ALGONQUIN TO BANCROFT WITH A POTENTIAL OF BECOMING

SLIGHTLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEAVY

DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND INTENSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS ARE

MOVING EAST AT 40 KM/H.

Sun rise is 730 and it looks like midnight here.

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