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Warmth to Continue for 1-2 weeks+


UW-weather

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It might be 50 degrees above average in Ontario. (image available at http://policlimate.com/weather/index.html under NCEP GFS 2-meter Temperatures -- Forecasts and Anomalies

It will be interesting to see how wiping out the snow pack in all/most of Ontario into parts of Quebec will have on the rest of Spring. I think it will make it harder to have a below normal April unless we get complete overwhelmed by a very cold pattern (which doesn't look likely right now).

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Per Harry, Euro weeklies show temps closer to normal week 3 and below normal week 4 for the GL.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out as we head forward into April. Signals of the PNA and MJO are hinting at some sort of return to basic normalcy in far stretch. But then again it's important to see how far out that is. 1 thing is for sure..another 7 maybe more days of insane warmth is projected for parts of the region.

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JB is tweeting that the JMA is showing a cooler than normal summer in the great lakes/NE region.

Summer cancel

Watch the current torch's average temps beat July's. Don't laugh. Indiana's statewide average temp in July 2009 was 69.4. That's about what we have averaged the past few days and look to continue for the next few days.

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I found this part of the 3PM LOT disco. kinda comical!

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF

THE UPPER TROF FROM THE PLAINS AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS SOMEWHERE

OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP

POPS LOW AND TEMPERATURES HIGH...EVEN RECORD HIGH...UNTIL WED

NIGHT AS THE TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH

THE UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW NEAR OR OVERHEAD POPS INCREASE FOR WED

NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD

COVER AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL

BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS BY FRI IN THE LOWER 60S...SOME

15 TO 20 DEG F COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF THE

WEEK. DOWNRIGHT CHILLY IF YOU ASK ME WHEN WE ONLY REACH HIGHS

THAT ARE JUST 10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE NORMS.

TRS

I doubt this warmup will last till March 31st. These March warmup's always end at some point and near normal temperatures come back for a spell.

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I found this part of the 3PM LOT disco. kinda comical!

I doubt this warmup will last till March 31st. These March warmup's always end at some point and near normal temperatures come back for a spell.

Who knows though? I mean honestly the pattern never broke in winter and that was a 3 month stretch. That being said we'll probably dip into the 50s again but man this is one persistent pattern

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Who knows though? I mean honestly the pattern never broke in winter and that was a 3 month stretch.

Thats not true. The warmth was dominant and persistent, but it was a roller coaster with many transient cold shots. Hell, during two of winters best snowstorms (Jan 20 and Feb 11) we had daytime highs in the teens.

Right now its a battle between the LR GFS and Euro weeklies. GFS says a slight cool down (still above normal) euro weeklies say below normal temps coming in a few weeks. You can always tell when the euro weeklies show some cool weeks because warmingista brett anderson on accuweather doeant mention them or give his "interpretation". if they are all torch hes got them up immediately lol.

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I wouldn't get to hyped up over JMA summer forecasts. Pee you bad last year as was the ECMWF. Trying to hard to create a El Nino and using that as its forecast.

On the other hand, the ECMWF was the only one that nailed the consistent heat from spring through the summr of 2010, as it predicted the ENSO flipping over rapdily to a La Nina (which it did).

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ECMWF pulled its head out of its ass and decided to ditch the cool snap idea. Saw that coming from a mile away as did the ENS.

00z Euro is still coolish, colder than any model but I don't agree with it quickly transitioning into a -NAO. If that were to happen I wouldn't expect it to happen until first week of April.

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00z Euro is still coolish, colder than any model but I don't agree with it quickly transitioning into a -NAO. If that were to happen I wouldn't expect it to happen until first week of April.

Stebo u are correct. I meant to say cold not cool snap. But yea it's the one chilly solution in a handful of torched models.

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You do have to image we'll start seeing some downstream feedback effects resulting from the lack of snow cover to our north.

Here is a link to help emphasize your point even more, it is the last 2 weeks snow cover maps in a loop.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/js_animate.html?year=2012&month=3&day=18&type=nsm_depth&region=National

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