Warmth to Continue for 1-2 weeks+

[UW-weather]

The warm spell that brought record warmth to areas like Green Bay, Minneapolis, and Marquette (Even with 2 feet of snow on the ground!) will continue for the the next week and beyond. Computer models are suggesting that a south wind will be constant for the next 2 weeks and pump warm air up from Texas and the Gulf Coast. Tomorrow looks to be the warmest in much of the midwest with 80s in Iowa and Illinois. It appears we are heading into a more El nino like pattern, and winter may be over. No reason to think otherwise, except for climatology...

http://midwestweathertalk.blogspot.com/

[Geos]

It's amazing it can get that warm in areas with that much snow on the ground. I think around here I've only seen low 50s with a solid snow pack. I can see that the La Nina is pretty much done now. With warming off the coast of South America.

[wishforsnow]

I am surprise I haven't got any water in the basement yet with the combo of snow melt and that rain Monday. But we were awfully dry before the snow came.

[weatherpsycho]

The next couple weeks look to be spectacular but I cannot accept that winter is completely over at least for MI. This type of pattern is not likely to hold for the next 8 weeks without stop. At some point in April (most likely beginning) I truly expect we (at least in MI) will be dealing with some form of "Winter's last stand". I hope mother nature's goes easy but it could easily be a April 2003 (massive ice-storm followed by snowstorm) or April 2005 (epic snowstorm) type event. Hopefully whatever is tossed our way in April will be short lived and we can go back to this summer like pattern.

[SpartyOn]

The next couple weeks look to be spectacular but I cannot accept that winter is completely over at least for MI. This type of pattern is not likely to hold for the next 8 weeks without stop. At some point in April (most likely beginning) I truly expect we (at least in MI) will be dealing with some form of "Winter's last stand". I hope mother nature's goes easy but it could easily be a April 2003 (massive ice-storm followed by snowstorm) or April 2005 (epic snowstorm) type event. Hopefully whatever is tossed our way in April will be short lived and we can go back to this summer like pattern.

Gods Speed to you.

[michsnowfreak]

The next couple weeks look to be spectacular but I cannot accept that winter is completely over at least for MI. This type of pattern is not likely to hold for the next 8 weeks without stop. At some point in April (most likely beginning) I truly expect we (at least in MI) will be dealing with some form of "Winter's last stand". I hope mother nature's goes easy but it could easily be a April 2003 (massive ice-storm followed by snowstorm) or April 2005 (epic snowstorm) type event. Hopefully whatever is tossed our way in April will be short lived and we can go back to this summer like pattern.

Agree. Snow in April is always short-lived. The most I can recall seeing solid snowcover was 2.5 days following the April 7, 2003 snowstorm and also the April 5/6, 2009 snowstorm (the snow depth was better here during 2003). During the April 2007 cold outbreak we had snow on the ground for like 4 days in a row, but it was a T. The April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm (depth peaked at 6" here) was gone by noon April 25th, but time of year has something to do with it. Looking back at historic April snowstorms, the longest to stay on the ground, no surprise, was April 7, 1886, but even that, 24.5 inches...was only 1 week. Regardless, I too agree that winters last stand is likely. One of the mets on the NE forum said troughing per euro ensembles is said to return after Mar 25th. We will see.

[gosaints]

Agree. Snow in April is always short-lived. The most I can recall seeing solid snowcover was 2.5 days following the April 7, 2003 snowstorm and also the April 5/6, 2009 snowstorm (the snow depth was better here during 2003). During the April 2007 cold outbreak we had snow on the ground for like 4 days in a row, but it was a T. The April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm (depth peaked at 6" here) was gone by noon April 25th, but time of year has something to do with it. Looking back at historic April snowstorms, the longest to stay on the ground, no surprise, was April 7, 1886, but even that, 24.5 inches...was only 1 week. Regardless, I too agree that winters last stand is likely. One of the mets on the NE forum said troughing per euro ensembles is said to return after Mar 25th. We will see.

That same met did go on to say that it looked like that troughing could be short lived.

[wishforsnow]

Spoke too soon. Just notice water coming in the one side of the basement. It isn't a flood, just a trickle. Hard to keep water out of these stone foundations.

[weatherpsycho]

Agree. Snow in April is always short-lived. The most I can recall seeing solid snowcover was 2.5 days following the April 7, 2003 snowstorm and also the April 5/6, 2009 snowstorm (the snow depth was better here during 2003). During the April 2007 cold outbreak we had snow on the ground for like 4 days in a row, but it was a T. The April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm (depth peaked at 6" here) was gone by noon April 25th, but time of year has something to do with it. Looking back at historic April snowstorms, the longest to stay on the ground, no surprise, was April 7, 1886, but even that, 24.5 inches...was only 1 week. Regardless, I too agree that winters last stand is likely. One of the mets on the NE forum said troughing per euro ensembles is said to return after Mar 25th. We will see.

2009 was sweet too as I had 9" on the ground from that one. No thanks to the 2007 April. If I am getting snow in April those other years(03,05&09) are much preferred.

Of course not getting winters last stand wouldn't bother me one bit. Torch with t-storms until Fall, get a normal Fall and then go much below normal temps starting in Nov!

[ValpoVike]

Agree. Snow in April is always short-lived. The most I can recall seeing solid snowcover was 2.5 days following the April 7, 2003 snowstorm and also the April 5/6, 2009 snowstorm (the snow depth was better here during 2003). During the April 2007 cold outbreak we had snow on the ground for like 4 days in a row, but it was a T. The April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm (depth peaked at 6" here) was gone by noon April 25th, but time of year has something to do with it. Looking back at historic April snowstorms, the longest to stay on the ground, no surprise, was April 7, 1886, but even that, 24.5 inches...was only 1 week. Regardless, I too agree that winters last stand is likely. One of the mets on the NE forum said troughing per euro ensembles is said to return after Mar 25th. We will see.

It can happen. I lived in Chardon, OH in 2005 and we got 20" on the last weekend in March, and incredibly close to 2 feet of very wet snow at the end of April. I was trying to sell my house and had to delay the on-market date because of a couple of lost trees in late April.

[turtlehurricane]

The jet stream is actually zonal right now, no trough in the west.

[Geos]

The jet stream is actually zonal right now, no trough in the west.

PNA went +. Looks like the NAO is going to trend lower as well. That should bring more seasonable temperatures to the region.

78°/40° here today! 38° difference.

[Tropical]

PNA went +. Looks like the NAO is going to trend lower as well. That should bring more seasonable temperatures to the region.

78°/40° here today! 38° difference.

All guidance says this continues for the forseeable future.

A +PNA is just gonna torch the entire US.

[Geos]

All guidance says this continues for the forseeable future.

A +PNA is just gonna torch the entire US.

Wouldn't a ridge off the west coast, drop a trough in the east!?

[SpartyOn]

Wouldn't a ridge off the west coast, drop a trough in the east!?

Not nessarally.

[roardog]

While this weather is nice, it has brought the AGW crowd out in full force. It's funny how quiet they are when it's cold and snowy. People can't comprehend the difference between weather in their backyard and global climate.

Back on topic. Made it to 73F here today after a low of 32F with lots of frost.

[michsnowfreak]

While this weather is nice, it has brought the AGW crowd out in full force. It's funny how quiet they are when it's cold and snowy. People can't comprehend the difference between weather in their backyard and global climate.

Back on topic. Made it to 73F here today after a low of 32F with lots of frost.

I havent heard too many of the AGW people. Seems like theyve shutup with our recent winters before this one....though maybe its that Im not paying attention. Actually, when its cold they tend to be "global warming /sarcasm" when its warm "global warming / serious". The weather is the weather.

Traverse City had a full 50 degree range today, 81/31. Im thinking this warmup continues for a good week and a half more. But we have not seen the last of the snow. Its funny, when looking at past torchy Marches, April snow increases all the more lol.

[SpartyOn]

I havent heard too many of the AGW people. Seems like theyve shutup with our recent winters before this one....though maybe its that Im not paying attention. Actually, when its cold they tend to be "global warming /sarcasm" when its warm "global warming / serious". The weather is the weather.

Traverse City had a full 50 degree range today, 81/31. Im thinking this warmup continues for a good week and a half more. But "its possible "we have not seen the last of the snow. Its funny, when looking at past torchy Marches, April snow increases all the more lol.

FYP

[Powerball]

Wouldn't a ridge off the west coast, drop a trough in the east!?

A +PNA teleconnection tends to correlate with amplified ridging in the west.

It is of course only one of many variables, and thus, just because we have a +PNA doesn't necessary mean we're going to have troughiness and below average weather on our side of the country.

Likewise with an -NAO. Just because it's negative doesn't mean the summer is going to be cold and troughy for example. It's all in the placement of the -NAO, amongst the other variables.

[SpartyOn]

A +PNA teleconnection tends to correlate with amplified ridging in the west.

It is of course only one of many variables, and thus, just because we have a +PNA doesn't necessary mean we're going to have troughiness and below average weather on our side of the country.

Likewise with an -NAO. Just because it's negative doesn't mean the summer is going to be cold and troughy for example. It's all in the placement of the -NAO, amongst the other variables.

2010 was the king of a -NAO Summer

[Geos]

I havent heard too many of the AGW people. Seems like theyve shutup with our recent winters before this one....though maybe its that Im not paying attention. Actually, when its cold they tend to be "global warming /sarcasm" when its warm "global warming / serious". The weather is the weather.

Traverse City had a full 50 degree range today, 81/31. Im thinking this warmup continues for a good week and a half more. But we have not seen the last of the snow. Its funny, when looking at past torchy Marches, April snow increases all the more lol.

Jim Ramsey of WGN mentioned the warm then snow routine. After 6/8 80° highs in March for Chicago, a snow followed later in the spring. I guess the other shoe drops harder when your dealing early warmups.

I haven't heard that much from the AGW crowd. But I haven't been seeking their comments out either, lol!

[michsnowfreak]

FYP

Anythings possible. We may have frost on 4th of July and it may hit 95F tomorrow. But I was referring to MY thinking. And MY thinking is we are not done with snow.

[michsnowfreak]

Jim Ramsey of WGN mentioned the warm then snow routine. After 6/8 80° highs in March for Chicago, a snow followed later in the spring. I guess the other shoe drops harder when your dealing early warmups.

I haven't heard that much from the AGW crowd. But I haven't been seeking their comments out either, lol!

Same for Detroit. Have hit 80 eight times in March. 6 of the 8 had measurable snow afterward (note that two of those 80s were in the same year). One of the two that didnt, 1910, didnt see measurable snow, but DID see the latest snow on record, as rain mixed with snow fell during the afternoon of May 31, 1910. Theres no doubt about it, WINTER is done, Im not saying we go into a winter pattern. But chances of more snow are extremely high.

[nwohweather]

Sounds like a bunch of wishcasting to me. Sorry but this pattern has been gradually warming up since late February. Not to say it won't dip back down but I highly doubt, especially with the PNA where it is and seeing how intrusive this warm air has been since Fall in all honesty that we will not see anymore snow. It's gonna be a warm spring folks

[michsnowfreak]

Sounds like a bunch of wishcasting to me. Sorry but this pattern has been gradually warming up since late February. Not to say it won't dip back down but I highly doubt, especially with the PNA where it is and seeing how intrusive this warm air has been since Fall in all honesty that we will not see anymore snow. It's gonna be a warm spring folks

How is it wishcasting to say its going to snow again? IMO its wishcasting to say its NOT going to snow again. To be clear, by NO means am I saying that winter will settle back in for any length of time. But its downright foolish to ignore everything about our climate. In 132 years of snowfall records, just FIVE times did no snow fall here after March 31st. The historical probability for measurable April snow in Detroit is about 75%. There have been many March torches in the past, and measurable snow followed almost everyone of them. No doubt this March torch is in a league of its own with the possible exception of March 1945 (which, btw, saw some snow fall in April AND May for many areas north of I80). Not to mention there is a great deal of cold bottled up to the north. Winter returning? No way. But I will be shocked if March 9th was our last snowflakes of the 2011-12 season.

[mnweather]

Anythings possible. We may have frost on 4th of July and it may hit 95F tomorrow. But I was referring to MY thinking. And MY thinking is we are not done with snow.

i would agree with this, it would be foolish to think we will not get any snow the rest of the spring. Climatology does not support it, even in the spring of 2010 which was basically snow less everywhere I managed to get snow in May. Not saying I get snow this time even though I think there is a good chance I do but someone probably will be it Michigan, MN, or anywhere in the northern plains/great lakes.

[michsnowfreak]

i would agree with this, it would be foolish to think we will not get any snow the rest of the spring. Climatology does not support it, even in the spring of 2010 which was basically snow less everywhere I managed to get snow in May. Not saying I get snow this time even though I think there is a good chance I do but someone probably will be it Michigan, MN, or anywhere in the northern plains/great lakes.

That is a GREAT point. Even if climatology totally fails me in Detroit and it does not snow....Ill say it...no way does it not snow anywhere in MI, MN, etc. And the funny thing is, EVERYONE is dealing with this torch right now, so most are in that mindset of "its just too warm, no end in sight, no more snow til Fall"...SOMEONE will be very surprised in April (or even May) when they see their lawn white.

[Geos]

i would agree with this, it would be foolish to think we will not get any snow the rest of the spring. Climatology does not support it, even in the spring of 2010 which was basically snow less everywhere I managed to get snow in May. Not saying I get snow this time even though I think there is a good chance I do but someone probably will be it Michigan, MN, or anywhere in the northern plains/great lakes.

I would say someone north of a La Crosse to Saginaw line will see another accumulating snow. South of there to I-80 probably 75-80% chance. March and April probably have the wildest swings in weather compared to the rest of the year.

[mnweather]

That is a GREAT point. Even if climatology totally fails me in Detroit and it does not snow....Ill say it...no way does it not snow anywhere in MI, MN, etc. And the funny thing is, EVERYONE is dealing with this torch right now, so most are in that mindset of "its just too warm, no end in sight, no more snow til Fall"...SOMEONE will be very surprised in April (or even May) when they see their lawn white.

I certainly agree, just because it's warm now doesn't mean it stays that way. Snow is inevitable and even though this is a prolonged torch it will end and reality will set in.

[wishforsnow]

i would agree with this, it would be foolish to think we will not get any snow the rest of the spring. Climatology does not support it, even in the spring of 2010 which was basically snow less everywhere I managed to get snow in May. Not saying I get snow this time even though I think there is a good chance I do but someone probably will be it Michigan, MN, or anywhere in the northern plains/great lakes.

Definately. I seen it many times here in the UP. Had these early warmups and then got walloped with three feet of snow. One year I just got the yard cleaned up and bam we were hit with three feet of snow three days later. They just had rain forecast, but that changed quickly into a rip snorting snowstorm.